Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Recon indicates Richard is a 60 mph TS with a pressure of 1000 mb.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
JB last evening.
(ADMITTING his mistakes, Nea)
But no, he never does that...


FRIDAY 10 PM
RICHARD CONTINUES TO REFUSE TO GET UNDER THE CONVECTION CENTER.

Recon is still showing the stretched center on the southwest side of the bomb that is Richard, and this will continue to prevent any kind of rapid intensification. There is obviously a fight going on here as the data buoy north of the storm had the wind shift from northeast to southeast, then back to northeast, and that indicates the confused center situation.

While calling the development from over 10 days out, the performance on my part the last 2 days has been poor with this. Lets see if I can get scary Shary right from start to finish.

I am not a happy camper with situations like this, believe me.
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Nice song Ike most of us end up with one headlight. Life mirrors blog coincidence not. and Pottery if he was still here lookout for some bad weather in the next 24 to 48 hrs. with that ring around the moon.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Ignorance is bliss, huh? Big Energy thanks you for all your free help. Spreading the word that science is evil and scientists are fraudulent manipulators is too big a challenge for them to do alone, so they very much appreciate the help from you and the rest of the uneducated public.

Loosely quoting Dr.Martin Luther King,

"The truth in defeat is still more powerful than a lie triumphant."

In this case, AGW is the lie and while it is triumphant for now, truth will eventually rear its head once again.

As for ignorance being bliss...The AGW folks are some of the most blissful people I have ever known. Anyone who has taken that nasty old college course, 'Statistics 101' knows that a 97 percent agreement on any subject is simply a fantasy. In this case, the claim of a 97% agreement between scientists regarding AGW is a fantasy desperately held by a person who will grasp at anything that vindicates AGW. A clear example of Rose colored glasses distorting reality, big time.

Ricky is headed WEST to the PACIFIC and as I posted earlier, 'Don't take my word for it...Check out MIMIC-TPW and see for yourself.

No 97% agreement, no fantasy, just my observation based on a display of information from wisc.edu the truth for all to see.

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Quoting Grothar:


Not being funny, why do you believe they are unhappy?


Its not following everything else they are seeing.. they are looking awful hard for the real centre.



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
920. IKE
Quoting Keys99:


Thanks.

...........................................



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Fl got luck again looks like Rich wont even make it to gulf
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Quoting Grothar:


See, another one who pays attention. LOL
Good Morning Gro..If the moisture from the Atlantic moves into the Caribbean Sea while the MJO is in an upward phase, we may have an active November.....
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Quoting stillwaiting:
stillwaitings forecast track for richie:




I think you need to update your forecast. That is a two day old track and nothing supports that track anymore.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
916. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #20
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (BOB04-2010)
17:30 PM IST October 23 2010
=============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over Myanmar moved further northeastward and weakened into a well mark low pressure area. The low pressure area now lies over central parts of Myanmar.

This is the final tropical cyclone bulletin from the India Meteorological Department.

---
That is the end of GIRI.
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Quoting Grothar:


Gee, T. what a nice guy. I take back almost everything I ever said about you. LOL How you been??


Doing well.....i too took my geritol this morning.....LOL! LOve this weather outside of needing rain really bad. The Lake is really getting low outside the back door.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

I don't think the HH is happy with that last run.. and is making another quick one.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Not being funny, why do you believe they are unhappy?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208



Looking better.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting IKE:


"No threat to the United States at all with this system"....quote, end-quote.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Richard does look better this morning than he ever has, and his central pressure's dropping...but the poor guy has been sharing his incubator with an atmospheric Sahara since before he was born, and the WV loop shows that moving west isn't gonna help him much:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Meanwhile in the far eastern ATL, although its winds are up to a healthy 30 knots, 90L is moving into a bad neighborhood and likely won't be with us much longer. However...there's a new somewhat robust blob rolling off of Africa today to 90L's southeast. This blob already exhibits a little anticyclonic spin, so who knows? It's not even being tracked as a pouch, but stranger things have happened this year:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Finally--and to me interestingly--NOAA is giving a very small chance of development to the area in the far southern Caribbean where Panama meets Colombia. 850mb vorticity is somehwat increasing (and SSTs are certainly high enough). It's a bit far south and there is a lot of land, but something to check in on every now and then:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Seen it, just ignored it cause of your age....LOL


Gee, T. what a nice guy. I take back almost everything I ever said about you. LOL How you been??
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Not bad. Beginning to strengthen.
URNT12 KNHC 231331
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 23/13:07:30Z
B. 15 deg 53 min N
083 deg 15 min W
C. NA
D. 48 kt
E. 068 deg 18 nm
F. 152 deg 49 kt
G. 084 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 24 C / 309 m
J. 26 C / 329 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0719A RICHARD OB 11
MAX FL WIND 49 KT E QUAD 13:05:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 29 KT SE QUAD 13:20:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


PAGASA track map for Katring


Uh-oh. If Katring continues as predicted, it's going to run over the northern 1/3 of Luzon almost exactly where Megi/Juan hit it several days ago. Right now it's but a TD; here's to hoping it stays that way...
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Quoting Grothar:


See, another one who pays attention. LOL


Seen it, just ignored it cause of your age....LOL
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It's Saturday, unless you live on the other side of the world LOL.


See, another one who pays attention. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting IKE:
Five-day QPF...


Well we received 0.36 inches this morning already so we are close to the projections already on the 5 day out look.

Glad to see you have recovered well form your nightly floggings IKE. Keep up the good post
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Quoting shikori:


Is it just me, or does the end of that mimic tpw on richard look like a face turning over.
I have seen all kinds of shapes over the years. We should see some more shapes in November..The NCEP shows a storm coming together in the Central Caribbean....Link
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Quoting outofdablue:
Sunday?...which hemisphere?

See, some of you are alert.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting Neapolitan:

Sorry to hear that. FWIW, here in Naples it's forecast to be around 90 each of the next five days straight, and not much below that the next several after that.

Speaking of temps, it's amazing how little MDR SSTs have dropped in the past, oh, week or so. In fact, some small spots have actually warmed a bit. Even in the GOM, while temps are obviously far lower than they were a month ago, SSTs are still high enough to generate and sustain TCs. And with this week's expected summer-like highs, there'll be no rapid cooldown just yet. IOW, "cooler than it was" isn't the same as "cool".

Then (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Now (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
from the looks of that it has warmed.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Complete Update

I don't think the HH is happy with that last run.. and is making another quick one.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
If you love fishing in the GOM you gotta love LaNina. Meaning a high usually controls the SE and bringing a nice SE breeze and fairly calm GOM for the most part along the Florida West Coast. Love it.
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Quoting Grothar:
GeoffWPB hasn't posted this in the last 15 mintutes, so I'll do it for you all. Hope everyone is well on this fine Sunday morning.

Sunday?...which hemisphere?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
GeoffWPB hasn't posted this in the last 15 mintutes, so I'll do it for you all. Hope everyone is well on this fine Sunday morning.



It's Saturday, unless you live on the other side of the world LOL.
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897. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


PAGASA track map for Katring
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Quoting calusakat:

Just try to remember that any prediction is simply that...it is a guess as to what will happen in the future.

Take a look at this...MIMIC-TPW

All that darkness coming down from the good ole US of A is DRY air. Notice how in the last frames the entire area around Ricky is beginning to move WEST? Ricky is headed to the Pacific right now and from the looks of it he will very likely make it.

I can't help wondering if the professional mets are letting their political ideologies color their observations and conclusions with preconceived notions. While I am not suggesting that it is a deliberate act on their part, it is happening all the same.

In the stone age, it was called 'Looking at the world through Rose colored glasses'. In this case AGW colored glasses.

Time to go back to the drawing board, otherwise, those who depend on reliable weather forecasts will believe less and less in the forecasts. Its like the story of the little boy who cried WOLF too often. After a while, the people began ignoring him and eventually there really was a WOLF and nobody listened.

Is weather forecasting like that little boy?

Right now it would appear so.

BTW...Those of us who post on this blog and aren't professional mets can predict whatever we want 'cause we aren't professionals!! ;-)


Ignorance is bliss, huh? Big Energy thanks you for all your free help. Spreading the word that science is evil and scientists are fraudulent manipulators is too big a challenge for them to do alone, so they very much appreciate the help from you and the rest of the uneducated public.
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Don't push the clock to much forward.
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For those of you who still think this will go north.....hydrus' image shows that high moving in tandem directly north of Richie...doesn't seem that it will get out of his way anytime before CA.

Quoting hydrus:
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893. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
whispers "It's Saturday morning" xP
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
that is the beginning of my 120-200 inches of snow each year


At least you don't live in Richmond where winter weather is hard to predict. They could say it will snow 6" and that mix line shifts further west or east and it will make a big impact on how much we get, in this case, I would prefer that line to stay to the east.
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URNT12 KNHC 231331
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 23/13:07:30Z
B. 15 deg 53 min N
083 deg 15 min W
C. NA
D. 48 kt
E. 068 deg 18 nm
F. 152 deg 49 kt
G. 084 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 24 C / 309 m
J. 26 C / 329 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0719A RICHARD OB 11
MAX FL WIND 49 KT E QUAD 13:05:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 29 KT SE QUAD 13:20:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
GeoffWPB hasn't posted this in the last 15 mintutes, so I'll do it for you all. Hope everyone is well on this fine Sunday morning.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
888. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
21:00 PM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.3N 134.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.8N 131.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

----
This Tropical Depression is PAGASA Katring system
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887. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #83
TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
21:00 PM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Megi (998 hPa) located at 24.5N 117.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 27.7N 118.7E - Tropical Depression
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I had my first snowfall yesterday morning.

Sorry to hear that. FWIW, here in Naples it's forecast to be around 90 each of the next five days straight, and not much below that the next several after that.

Speaking of temps, it's amazing how little MDR SSTs have dropped in the past, oh, week or so. In fact, some small spots have actually warmed a bit. Even in the GOM, while temps are obviously far lower than they were a month ago, SSTs are still high enough to generate and sustain TCs. And with this week's expected summer-like highs, there'll be no rapid cooldown just yet. IOW, "cooler than it was" isn't the same as "cool".

Then (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Now (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
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884. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRING
5:00 PM PhST October 23 2010
=====================================

The tropical depression East of Luzon has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was named "KATRING".

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Katring located at 15.4°N 134.7°E or 1,320 km east of Central Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Quoting IKE:
Five-day QPF...



South of Palm Beach Co. has gotten all the rain this year. Thankfully we had a very wet winter and early spring to carry us through the abnormally dry summer. Drought conditions should increase rather rapidly this winter however.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting tropicfreak:


LUCKY!!
that is the beginning of my 120-200 inches of snow each year
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Quoting weatherman12345:
what really confuses me is storms and hurricanes in late october don't just run into central America. they have to recure one way or another becasue of the troughs.. any thoughts???

Just try to remember that any prediction is simply that...it is a guess as to what will happen in the future.

Take a look at this...MIMIC-TPW

All that darkness coming down from the good ole US of A is DRY air. Notice how in the last frames the entire area around Ricky is beginning to move WEST? Ricky is headed to the Pacific right now and from the looks of it he will very likely make it.

I can't help wondering if the professional mets are letting their political ideologies color their observations and conclusions with preconceived notions. While I am not suggesting that it is a deliberate act on their part, it is happening all the same.

In the stone age, it was called 'Looking at the world through Rose colored glasses'. In this case AGW colored glasses.

Time to go back to the drawing board, otherwise, those who depend on reliable weather forecasts will believe less and less in the forecasts. Its like the story of the little boy who cried WOLF too often. After a while, the people began ignoring him and eventually there really was a WOLF and nobody listened.

Is weather forecasting like that little boy?

Right now it would appear so.

BTW...Those of us who post on this blog and aren't professional mets can predict whatever we want 'cause we aren't professionals!! ;-)
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879. IKE
Five-day QPF...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I had my first snowfall yesterday morning... we had about 1 hour of sleet then 2-3 hours of sleet/snow mix and then 4 hours of nothing but on and off sleet.... it did accumulate every once in a while and then melted within 1 hour.



LUCKY!!
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I had my first snowfall yesterday morning... we had about 1 hour of sleet then 2-3 hours of sleet/snow mix and then 4 hours of nothing but on and off sleet.... it did accumulate every once in a while and then melted within 1 hour.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree it looks very poor in presentation, but as we speak tho conditions are improving for some strengthening. It will probably improve in presentation as the day goes on. YOur track is pretty agressive to the North. I don't see that happening. Looks much more West coming to me IMO!


Though anything is possible, and if it does make landfall in FL, I think it will be anywhere between Tampa and Naples.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like it might just skim the coast and not really go on land. Looks like he may be following Paula's path over Honduras.
It also looks to be going N of the next current tropical point.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912

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