Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx09:


You're right, I just noticed the projected path having it turning North Northwest in 72 hours.


Welcome, troll. Sigh, this blog is getting way out of hand.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




can you plzs get back too the weather

i'll mail u then
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Neither. But if I am forced to choose, I'd say TD5.
Why is Richard taking so long to strengthen?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Indian ocean storms are harder to predict due to the less capable interaction and tracking of the storms cause these type of situations, the only reason why megi became a cat.5 was there was hurricane hunters. giri had no flights into it, that's why giri shifted from a ts to a cat. 4 in 12 hours, it was likely that at the time of it being a tropical storm that it was a cat 1 or 2

That's a good point. Logistical and human variables in play.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
like to get things set up here
btwntx09 impersonating btwntx08 and note its not him....




can you plzs get back too the weather
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Quoting jrweatherman:


Who do you think would copy and paste the one sentence from the NHC discussion that downcasts Richard in the GOM?


lol, Ike's no troll.
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like to get things set up here
btwntx09 impersonating btwntx08 and note its not him....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
wish ones have the best ch of being upgraded


TD 2 or TD 5?


Neither. But if I am forced to choose, I'd say TD5.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Who?


Who do you think would copy and paste the one sentence from the NHC discussion that downcasts Richard in the GOM?
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1995 at this point was at 18, 1 ahead of us. Saw 1 more named storm after this date.

1996 saw 1 more after October 22nd.

1997 saw 0.

1998 saw 2 more after October 22nd, Mitch and Nicole. Mitch formed today 12 years ago.

1999 saw 2 more after October 22nd, Katrina and Lenny.

2000 saw nothing named after October 22nd, but saw a Sub-tropical storm on the 25th.

2001 saw 3, Michelle, Noel, and Ogla.

2002 saw 0

2003 saw 2, Odette and Peter both in December.

2004 saw 1, Otto.

2005 of course, saw an insane 6 after October 2nd.

2006 saw 0

2007 saw 2, Noel and Ogla.

2008 saw 1, Paloma.

2009 saw 1, Ida.

Average is about 2 storms after this date. Given 2010's activity, I say 2-3 is a reasonable bet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
wish ones have the best ch of being upgraded


TD 2 or TD 5?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


IF 90L develops in Shary, A Caribbean Tomas develops in early November, and we get to Walter in late November.. we could see Alpha in December.

2005 saw six more storms after this date to reach 27. 1995 had two more on the way to 20. 1969 had three more, and even anemic little 2009 had one more. Duplicating those numbers, 2010 would end up with, respectively, 23 (Beta), 19 (Tomas), 20 (Virginie), or 18 (Shary).

I'm still holding steady at 20-12-6 (and I believe the 12 will be the most difficult number to reach, though it appears likely we'll be at 17-10-5 by tomorrow or Sunday).

(And, of course, there'll be those who state that Nicole shouldn't count, or Bonnie, or Gaston...but that's their own issue to deal with; I'll take the word of the experts at the NHC.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13729
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not with the cold front forecast to move through the Gulf Coast.


You're right, I just noticed the projected path having it turning North Northwest in 72 hours.
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Quoting btwntx09:


It's looking more and more likely that the track for Richard could be similar to Karl.

Not so much Karl. I was thinking more along the lines of Matthew, but probably a bit further to the north and much stronger of a system. If Richard re-emerges into the Bay of Campeche, I just don't see the same dynamics with him playing out simply because the conditions aloft will be much less favorable. I really am liking the NHC's projected path.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Depends on what you mean. I REALLY need rain pretty darn badly. I was hoping at least some energy of Richard would come near.
probably get him just not as a tropical system, more like ex richard
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Quoting scott39:
Richard will hit MS. and Al. as just the letter R and bring 5mph winds with gusts up to 10mph. .5 inches of rain is expected. Stock up now!


*runs to Wal Mart*
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
knowing the nhc, they will probably not make it shary unless they have to, even if it's a cat.1


?
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Quoting btwntx09:


It's looking more and more likely that the track for Richard could be similar to Karl.

hello imposter
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90L remains disorganized with a rather poor convective structure present. Considering that upper-level winds aloft should begin to deteriorate within the next few days, significant development of this disturbance is unlikely, however, I won't discount the fact that it may become a tropical cyclone.

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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #78
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
6:00 AM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (970 hPa) located at 23.0N 118.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 25.2N 117.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 27.0N 118.0E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46527
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the Eastern Caribbean 'might' have game, this is VERY far out.. November 1st-2nd. GFS


EMCWF


Interesting, the CMC develops 90L into a powerful hurricane..


knowing the nhc, they will probably not make it shary unless they have to, even if it's a cat.1
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Richard will hit MS. and Al. as just the letter R and bring 5mph winds with gusts up to 10mph. .5 inches of rain is expected. Stock up now!
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if u want more info mail me asap
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I said if we get to Walter by November, I'm saying there that Virginie might develop in November.

It is pretty unlikely though that 2010 will see Alpha.. not out of the question, but unlikely. I think Tomas will be our last storm in late November.



that would put us with 1995
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

just pointing out a senerio what could happen if it did


Obviously.
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imposter alert!!! post 41
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Gotta be. I've never seen anything like that.

The Indian ocean storms are harder to predict due to the less capable interaction and tracking of the storms cause these type of situations, the only reason why megi became a cat.5 was there was hurricane hunters. giri had no flights into it, that's why giri shifted from a ts to a cat. 4 in 12 hours, it was likely that at the time of it being a tropical storm that it was a cat 1 or 2
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not expecting much out of 90L.

just pointing out a senerio what could happen if it did
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Quoting btwntx09:


It's looking more and more likely that the track for Richard could be similar to Karl.


Not with the cold front forecast to move through the Gulf Coast.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




you all so for got the V storm


I said if we get to Walter by November, I'm saying there that Virginie might develop in November.

It is pretty unlikely though that 2010 will see Alpha.. not out of the question, but unlikely. I think Tomas will be our last storm in late November.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting cat5hurricane:


It's looking more and more likely that the track for Richard could be similar to Karl.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


IF 90L develops in Shary, A Caribbean Tomas develops in early November, and we get to Walter in late November.. we could see Alpha in December.

missed the v storm
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


IF 90L develops in Shary, A Caribbean Tomas develops in early November, and we get to Walter in late November.. we could see Alpha in December.


Not expecting much out of 90L.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


IF 90L develops in Shary, A Caribbean Tomas develops in early November, and we get to Walter in late November.. we could see Alpha in December.




you all so for got the V storm
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Troll Alert!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


IF 90L develops in Shary, A Caribbean Tomas develops in early November, and we get to Walter in late November.. we could see Alpha in December.



or if they upgrade TD 2 and TD 5
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I was kind of hoping we'd see the Greek alphabet once again. It's not likely to happen though, since TD2 and TD5 didn't develop when they had the chance.


IF 90L develops in Shary, A Caribbean Tomas develops in early November, and we get to Walter in late November.. we could see Alpha in December.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Depends on what you mean. I REALLY need rain pretty darn badly. I was hoping at least some energy of Richard would come near.


I don't see any reason why at least some portion of the Gulf Coast, likely the northern, won't see at least some precipitation from Richard.
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Quoting IKE:
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.
.......

Great news.


Depends on what you mean. I REALLY need rain pretty darn badly. I was hoping at least some energy of Richard would come near.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
31. IKE
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.
.......

Great news.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Gets cold feet though once it gets near time of genesis. Levi was right when he said we might get one more storm out of the Eastern Caribbean


I was kind of hoping we'd see the Greek alphabet once again. It's not likely to happen though, since TD2 and TD5 didn't develop when they had the chance.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


GFS has been excellent at predicting long-term tropical cyclogenesis. I will not be surprised at all if this occurs, though I would like to see some consistency.


Gets cold feet though once it gets near time of genesis. Levi was right when he said we might get one more storm out of the Eastern Caribbean
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Not sure where the hostility is in the Gulf...shear will decrease measurably when the ridge erodes with the on coming shortwave. Levi32 pointed this out..The main problem is cool water over the N. Gulf. Also, it is very possible this system just clips NE Yucatan. and maintains itself. I think too many are assuming this os scripted to die...There still are a number of days left for many changes.



Quoting CybrTeddy:
15. Obviously, given the harsh conditions.

It wont survive being over the Gulf, but has potential to become a Category 2 before hitting the Yucatan.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
15. Obviously, given the harsh conditions.

It wont survive being over the Gulf, but has potential to become a Category 2 before hitting the Yucatan.
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Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
NASA and Hot Towers always a good un..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the Eastern Caribbean 'might' have game, this is VERY far out.. November 1st-2nd. GFS


EMCWF


Interesting, the CMC develops 90L into a powerful hurricane..




GFS has been excellent at predicting long-term tropical cyclogenesis. I will not be surprised at all if this occurs, though I would like to see some consistency.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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