Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NCSaint:


This has been what's made this blog so interesting this year, in particular. Meteorology, whether you're a trained, degreed professional or an enthusiast is such an inexact science. People have been studying it for years and although technology has given us insight humans have never before known, we STILL don't completely understand why the atmosphere reacts the way it does, when it does. That's the whole reason I'm here in this blog......


for every action there is a reaction
for evey reaction there is a action

The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon nearing Richard's circulation with the pressure decreasing to 1008mb. As far as winds go, the highest SFMR readings have been near 40mph.

225530 1610N 08214W 9249 00750 0080 +222 +074 104019 020 029 001 00


It's been a crazy day for HH. Pressures they meaured earlier were 1006 genrally, but all 3 Caribbean buoys showed pressure rises while they were intercepting. This cyclone is doing some really strange things with what appears to be a higly slanted CoC axis
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Quoting IKE:
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.
.......

Great news.

yes for the storm
its to get very dry the coming months
soon you will see tumble weeds
and sand where grass once grew
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Recon nearing Richard's circulation with the pressure decreasing to 1008mb. As far as winds go, the highest SFMR readings have been near 40mph.

225530 1610N 08214W 9249 00750 0080 +222 +074 104019 020 029 001 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Is it only me or does it seem every time a Cape Verde storm formed this season it recurved out to sea because of troughiness along the east coast, and home grown caribbean disturbances pushed west into central america because there was a high east of FL.


I can't think of an exception...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
like i say


models are meant to be use as guidance only and do depict final outcome to any one single event things can and will change


This has been what's made this blog so interesting this year, in particular. Meteorology, whether you're a trained, degreed professional or an enthusiast is such an inexact science. People have been studying it for years and although technology has given us insight humans have never before known, we STILL don't completely understand why the atmosphere reacts the way it does, when it does. That's the whole reason I'm here in this blog......
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Time: 22:45:30Z
Coordinates: 16.65N 82.3833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 767 meters (~ 2,516 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.1 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 86° at 31 knots (From the E at ~ 35.6 mph)
Air Temp: 21.0°C (~ 69.8°F)
Dew Pt: 5.6°C (~ 42.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 31 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 30 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Someone please tell me my eyes are deceiving me and Richard is not making a jog due north!!


Looks WNW to me. Follow the low cloud motions, not the convection.
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I don't think Ike is a troll. But here's another thing to keep in mind for those of you who just can't ignore real trolls.

From the Rules of the Road:

"Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list. "
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Someone please tell me my eyes are deceiving me and Richard is not making a jog due north!!
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Just Imagine...
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Quoting HurricaneRichard:


There was so much hope for a Florida landfall yesterday, man.
like i say


models are meant to be use as guidance only and do depict final outcome to any one single event things can and will change
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Quoting portcharlotte:





You sir, are a moron. If Ike bothers you that much, simply put him on ignore. He is the voice of reason in this blog and has been for a long time. Your wishcasting will not make it so. Why don't you go elsewhere to blog if you aren't smart enough to find the ignore button or mature enough to just not let it get to you.
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Nicely stated Neopolitan - what does the person base their significance on? - are they posting for attention or are they being a contributing member of a community that shares the commonality of an interest in the Wunder of weather.

That said -- we all know why I'm here, checking on Richard - where his spin is and will he rock the buoys some before he "goes limp" --SWFL surfers are wishing for mild TS that brings moderate rain to our dry peninsula, w/ enough juice to ride & then goes poof. Ready to show up at the beach and do a surf dance for waves -- maybe we'd get some rain out of it too! No prob. surfing in rain
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59 years old ? Sheesh. Seems like no body is old enough for a chaperone. Leave it to somebody - no matter how old - to find a stupid bone to pick with just about everybody.

Ike is not a troll.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Is it only me or does it seem every time a Cape Verde storm formed this season it recurved out to sea because of troughiness along the east coast, and home grown caribbean disturbances pushed west into central america because there was a high east of FL.


No, you're quite correct. La Nina does tend to increase synoptic scale troughing in the east, which in turn favors a mean ridge over the Greater Antilles or Caribbean.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
2004 was an el nino year, yes. but there is a difference, theres a central pacific el nino, and theres a eastern pacific el nino, an eastern pacific el nino, like 2009, puts creates more shear in the atlantic which causes less storms, a central pacific el nino, puts less of an impact on the atlantic which allows more storms to form.

So would you say this is a Central Pacific La Nina or Eastern Pacific La Nina or both?
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A look back to Portlights 2008 Xmas Party for the Bridge City,Texas residents post Hurricane Ike.

We can make a difference in Haiti as well.


Thanks to all who made this possible 2 years ago.





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Quoting KoritheMan:


We don't have enough samples of Modiki El Nino/La Nina years to make a definite conclusion.

Is it only me or does it seem every time a Cape Verde storm formed this season it recurved out to sea because of troughiness along the east coast, and home grown caribbean disturbances pushed west into central america because there was a high east of FL.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey has anyone thrown the whole La Nina Modiki phenomenon out there? The reason I state this is because the El Nino Modiki of 2004 produced 15 named storms most of which struck the U.S. while we have more storms this year and all but one, Bonnie struck the U.S. Even 1995 had more storms hit the U.S. and that's an analog year to this one.
2004 was an el nino year, yes. but there is a difference, theres a central pacific el nino, and theres a eastern pacific el nino, an eastern pacific el nino, like 2009, puts creates more shear in the atlantic which causes less storms, a central pacific el nino, puts less of an impact on the atlantic which allows more storms to form.
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Quoting TOMSEFLA:
local 10 payed max 50k for his interaction into tropical activity again this year.looks like it was burned $


I'd say money well spent... Think of it like an insurance policy.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10782
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey has anyone thrown the whole La Nina Modiki phenomenon out there? The reason I state this is because the El Nino Modiki of 2004 produced 15 named storms most of which struck the U.S. while we have more storms this year and all but one, Bonnie struck the U.S. Even 1995 had more storms hit the U.S. and that's an analog year to this one.


We don't have enough samples of Modiki El Nino/La Nina years to make a definite conclusion.
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Hey has anyone thrown the whole La Nina Modiki phenomenon out there? The reason I state this is because the El Nino Modiki of 2004 produced 15 named storms most of which struck the U.S. while we have more storms this year and all but one, Bonnie struck the U.S. Even 1995 had more storms hit the U.S. and that's an analog year to this one.
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Recon getting close.


221500 1750N 08327W 5535 05061 0077 -007 -367 030020 021 025 000 00
221530 1748N 08326W 5685 04847 0093 -000 -351 027020 021 025 001 00
$$
;
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
at the same time they can also under forecast things or be conservative on their predictions, im not saying they do a bad job, its just they can make bad choices at times


If you aren't conservative, you can lose your credibility. I'm not a certified meteorologist, and even I know that. If they forecast every storm to reach its MPI, they'd quickly lose public credibility and the consequences would be dire.
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I said this late, late last night, and I think it warrants repeating:

Simply put, the basic and original definition of an internet troll is someone who posts comments to a forum with the sole or primary purpose not of adding constructively to a conversation, but rather of provoking an angry response in other users through intentionally inflammatory words. As such, if anyone here purposely downcasts not because, or not only because, they believe in what they're saying, but rather because they enjoy watching the guaranteed irate reactions of others to their words, and/or because they relish the attention they know they'll receive for those words, they are by definition a troll, period.

Now, then, who is doing that?

Some trolls are easy to spot by almost anyone. They post racist or hateful or obtuse or obviously stupid, stupid things, things that make them stick out like a greasy fingerprint on a white dress shirt. With others, however, it's not always quite so easy to tell. These folks almost have to decide on their own whether they're trolls. That is, they have to look at themselves--into their own minds, and their own hearts--and decide if the things they're writing are meant to educate and inform, or if they're just to anger and confuse. If it's the former, great! Keep up the good work. But if it's the latter, they need to change, pipe down, or go away...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799



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Thank you for your faith in these efforts!!!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I know what you're saying, but I'm asking why you're saying that. The NHC does the best they can with what they have.
at the same time they can also under forecast things or be conservative on their predictions, im not saying they do a bad job, its just they can make bad choices at times
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Quoting scott39:
Does it look like Richard will be bigger than Paula and Matthew?


Well he's already comparable to Matthew, and, given that the dry air is gradually lessening (emphasis on "gradually"), I'd say yes.
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Check it out!!
Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Dry air and an elongated circulation, since the shear is lessening (but still evident).
Does it look like Richard will be bigger than Paula and Matthew?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting Neapolitan:

2005 saw six more storms after this date to reach 27. 1995 had two more on the way to 20. 1969 had three more, and even anemic little 2009 had one more. Duplicating those numbers, 2010 would end up with, respectively, 23 (Beta), 19 (Tomas), 20 (Virginie), or 18 (Shary).

I'm still holding steady at 20-12-6 (and I believe the 12 will be the most difficult number to reach, though it appears likely we'll be at 17-10-5 by tomorrow or Sunday).

(And, of course, there'll be those who state that Nicole shouldn't count, or Bonnie, or Gaston...but that's their own issue to deal with; I'll take the word of the experts at the NHC.)
personally i could agree with your predictions, due to the way this season is working out
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I think Richard is slowly intensifying and moving WNW/NW
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
as in even if it could be a cat. 1 the nhc might not pick up on it.


I know what you're saying, but I'm asking why you're saying that. The NHC does the best they can with what they have.
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Quoting scott39:
Why is Richard taking so long to strengthen?


Dry air and an elongated circulation, since the shear is lessening (but still evident).
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Quoting KoritheMan:


?
as in even if it could be a cat. 1 the nhc might not pick up on it.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


IF 90L develops in Shary, A Caribbean Tomas develops in early November, and we get to Walter in late November.. we could see Alpha in December.
it's possible, when it comes to hurricanes anything can happen. im thinking if were talking about exhausting the naming list:

JUNE: ALEX
JULY: TD #2, BONNIE
AUGUST: COLIN, TD #5, DANIELLE, EARL, FIONA
SEPTEMBER: GASTON, HERMINE, IGOR, JULIA, KARL, LISA, MATTHEW, NICOLE
OCTOBER: OTTO, PAULA, RICHARD,

PREDICTIONS:
OCTOBER: OTTO, PAULA, RICHARD, Shary, Tomas? or
NOVEMBER: Tomas?, Virginie, Walter,
DECEMBER: Alpha?
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Slowly getting better organized.. 50 mph at 11 is a good bet.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting btwntx09:


You're right, I just noticed the projected path having it turning North Northwest in 72 hours.


Welcome, troll. Sigh, this blog is getting way out of hand.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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