Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SQUAWK:


You sir, are a moron. If Ike bothers you that much, simply put him on ignore. He is the voice of reason in this blog and has been for a long time. Your wishcasting will not make it so. Why don't you go elsewhere to blog if you aren't smart enough to find the ignore button or mature enough to just not let it get to you.


+10
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Man you should be ashamed!! Then some may wonder why you all are hated by many, this is the attitude that causes it, Mind you I'm pro'american, my grandfather was a US citizen, but you know what the poorest here in Grand Cayman is built probably better than some of the considered best in the U.S., On another note my wife is Belizean and I visisted her country for the first time this past summer, yes it is a poor but a hardworking and decent people, plus I noticed most of their houses had concrete roofs, a great protection against hurricanes!! They also after diasters don't wait arounds for the Government to help instead they lick their wound and get back to work rebuilding fast, whne you have so much to lose everything is taken for granted pal, when you nothing to lose or very little is taken for granted! So keep on acting like others don't exist on this planet, pretty soon you'll wake wake up to reality but by then it might just be to late for the likes of you!!



WELL SAID......I think you now qualify for a Belizean passport!

Seriously...does WU have a Respected User list. I think I would put you on.
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173. IKE
15.8N and 82.3W...coordinates for Rick....that's about 70-80 miles from landfall....IF it moved slightly south of west.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
...RICHARD SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 16.2°N 81.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

.........................................

...RICHARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...
8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 82.3°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Richard is the type of storm people want to give up on.But we can't becuase it will be threatning land soon.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
18z GFS predicts a hurricane in the central caribbean in 10 days, it shows it stalling as a minor cat .1/2 hurricane south of hispanoila, what it also shows is a strong high to the north that would bring it toward jamaica later on.
So it looks like 2010 wants to finish the whole naming list?.That's interesting.But remember look for consistance.
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Quoting Cora1979:


"an action" versus "a action".

Nevermind... Although it was an excellent post of cyclogenesis! I agree!!


My head popped out of my butt and I realized what you were saying after I posted....isn't that always the way?
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Quoting NCSaint:


I looked at all 3 Caribbean buoys earlier and the pressure were bizarre....40527 showed 29.83 and rising (with TS winds), Little Cayman showed 29.87 and rising and 40526 showed 29.97 and rising



Huh??


"an action" versus "a action".

Nevermind... Although it was an excellent post of cyclogenesis! I agree!!
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I'm starting to think Richard may be strictly another 3rd world country event. We have been blessed this year and when a storm hits our shores we have so much to loose.
Man you should be ashamed!! Then some may wonder why you all are hated by many, this is the attitude that causes it, Mind you I'm pro'american, my grandfather was a US citizen, but you know what the poorest here in Grand Cayman is built probably better than some of the considered best in the U.S., On another note my wife is Belizean and I visisted her country for the first time this past summer, yes it is a poor but a hardworking and decent people, plus I noticed most of their houses had concrete roofs, a great protection against hurricanes!! They also after disasters don't wait around for the Government to help instead they lick their wounds and get back to work rebuilding fast, when you have so much to lose everything is taken for granted pal, when you nothing to lose , very little is taken for granted! So keep on acting like others don't exist on this planet, pretty soon you'll wake up to reality but by then it might just be to late for the likes of you!!
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Quoting IKE:
...RICHARD SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 16.2°N 81.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

.........................................

...RICHARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...
8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 82.3°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
How has it moved W for the last 3 hours and dropped in lattitude?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
Anyone please help me understand this...I would get it if it had alot of forward speed and the lower circulation was so displaced from the upper circulation, but a near-stationary center with that much displacement.......how is it staying alive?
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166. IKE
...RICHARD SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 16.2°N 81.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

.........................................

...RICHARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...
8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 82.3°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Blog update. Be back after dinner.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Thank you! To be honest Richard is a confusing storm, one hour it appears this way , the next few it appears another, He's definitely a watch, wait and see what happens one!


I definitely fall into the enthusiast category when it comes to this stuff, but the low/mid/upper level circulation data shows this thing not just elongated, but it's vertical core is so sideways to me, I just don't see how it's supposed to intensify much. It really is a muddled mess of thunderstorms with some circulation at all levels that don't match
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Okay okay so now I hate both Giri and Megi with a passion.I hope the death toll isn't high at all from Giri.Where's are friend wind shear when you need it?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




My statement did not refer to the NHC forecast track. It was referring to the strength of Richard and if Richard strengthened like we thought it would or like the GFDL it most likely would not be where it is right now.
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18z GFS predicts a hurricane in the central caribbean in 10 days, it shows it stalling as a minor cat .1/2 hurricane south of hispanoila, what it also shows is a strong high to the north that would bring it toward jamaica later on.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Richard is a sissy
Well, Now you have gone an done it!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
Quoting KoritheMan:
For anyone interested, I did a blog on Richard and 90L.
Good job
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
157. 7544
he looks further east at this hour trying to get it together now models may have to shift right again tomorow imo
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I wouldn't worry about a jog. Wait 6-12 hours to see how movement smooths out. If anything, I'd think a move to the south of the track is more likely. We'll see.
.
.
.
And my thoughts on your loss. I've been there.

Thank you! To be honest Richard is a confusing storm, one hour it appears this way , the next few it appears another, He's definitely a watch, wait and see what happens one!
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


And you get a -1 for spelling ;-)




LOL
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i see a downgrade comeing
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Quoting Cora1979:


And a -1 for grammer.
an action...


And you get a -1 for spelling ;-)

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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Dropsonde info earlier indicated very dry air at the 400mb level. Temp -15c & Dew Point -62c. NHC also noted westerly winds in the upper levels. Those winds were most likely driving the dry air. NHC stated the models and the forecasters did not expect those winds to persist as long as they did. It is also part of the reason Richard is where it is right now, much further south.


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Richards progress is like watching ugly paint dry.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its possible, but I highly believe Richard is still at 45 mph
Recon has yet to investigate the complete system so the wind reading may not be entirely accurate. I wouldn't be surprised if it is a 40mph TS however since the convective structure isn't necessarily organized and the circulation is elongated and broad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting scott39:
Richard is odd to me. Strong convection over the COC for most of the day and still only a 45mph TC.


I looked at all 3 Caribbean buoys earlier and the pressure were bizarre....40527 showed 29.83 and rising (with TS winds), Little Cayman showed 29.87 and rising and 40526 showed 29.97 and rising

Quoting Cora1979:


And a -1 for grammer.
an action...


Huh??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Richard is odd to me. Strong convection over the COC for most of the day and still only a 45mph TC.


Dropsonde info earlier indicated very dry air at the 400mb level. Temp -15c & Dew Point -62c. NHC also noted westerly winds in the upper levels. Those winds were most likely driving the dry air. NHC stated the models and the forecasters did not expect those winds to persist as long as they did. It is also part of the reason Richard is where it is right now, much further south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on the vortex message: Richard is a 40mph TS with a pressure of 1007mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 222318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 22/23:03:30Z
B. 15 deg 46 min N
082 deg 16 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. 34 kt
E. 354 deg 48 nm
F. 087 deg 33 kt
G. 351 deg 63 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 759 m
J. 23 C / 759 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF306 0619A RICHARD OB 07
MAX FL WIND 33 KT N QUAD 22:42:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;


Its possible, but I highly believe Richard is still at 45 mph
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Satellite imagery reveals a relatively disorganized convective structure. The marginal environmental conditions currently impeding upon the system are really slowing intensification, however, when they improve over the next few days, Richard will likely take off.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
An object in motions will stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force. What is the force turning Rich west insted of n/e like the models said to begin with.

We really need rain here!
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Quoting NCSaint:


Gotta go with a -1 on the application of Newton's Law though (For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction)


And a -1 for grammer.
an action...
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Richard is odd to me. Strong convection over the COC for most of the day and still only a 45mph TC.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
Quoting stormpetrol:
Someone please tell me my eyes are deceiving me and Richard is not making a jog due north!!
I wouldn't worry about a jog. Wait 6-12 hours to see how movement smooths out. If anything, I'd think a move to the south of the track is more likely. We'll see.
.
.
.
And my thoughts on your loss. I've been there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Been waiting my whole life for a hurricane (44 years living on the west coast of Florida, near Sarasota). Thought Richard might be the one, wrong again. Maybe someday.
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Based on the vortex message: Richard is a 40mph TS with a pressure of 1007mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 222318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 22/23:03:30Z
B. 15 deg 46 min N
082 deg 16 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. 34 kt
E. 354 deg 48 nm
F. 087 deg 33 kt
G. 351 deg 63 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 759 m
J. 23 C / 759 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF306 0619A RICHARD OB 07
MAX FL WIND 33 KT N QUAD 22:42:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


for every action there is a reaction
for evey reaction there is a action
em>


Gotta go with a -1 on the application of Newton's Law though (For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction)
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Had Richard formed late next week, Florida Cub, and the Bahama's would have to watch out.
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blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting HurricaneRichard:
So........anything to look forward to, after Richard?


Thanksgiving
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 22:55:30Z
Coordinates: 16.1667N 82.2333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 750 meters (~ 2,461 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.0 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 104° at 19 knots (From the ESE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 22.2°C (~ 72.0°F)
Dew Pt: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes su

Finding winds 30+mph and lower pressure west of the COC , this was not noted on the other missions as far as i remember
that dew point is very low i would think it should be much higher than that 16 or 18 c dew would be good to promote dev but dev appears to be in a state of inhibitive dev for the tiome being
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:
like to get things set up here
btwntx09 impersonating btwntx08 and note its not him....
hmmmmm....09 isn't 08? Or is he? And who cares?
.
.
I see a cloud...moving WEST!!!
And a TS that's strengthening.
I'll be interested to see what the next 24 hours brings.
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Richard has been moving due west since 5p.m EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


for every action there is a reaction
for evey reaction there is a action

The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.


+1 on explanation of basic cyclogenisis. It's what it does after it generates that makes the discussion come alive
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Quoting HurricaneRichard:
So........anything to look forward to, after Richard?
a new handle i guess

lol
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Time: 22:55:30Z
Coordinates: 16.1667N 82.2333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 750 meters (~ 2,461 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.0 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 104° at 19 knots (From the ESE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 22.2°C (~ 72.0°F)
Dew Pt: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes su

Finding winds 30+mph and lower pressure west of the COC , this was not noted on the other missions as far as i remember
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Circulation found. The pressure is an unimpressive 1007.5mb. Additionally, the circulation is broad and elongated.

230230 1549N 08216W 9248 00750 0075 226 096 039006 006 019 002 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting NCSaint:


This has been what's made this blog so interesting this year, in particular. Meteorology, whether you're a trained, degreed professional or an enthusiast is such an inexact science. People have been studying it for years and although technology has given us insight humans have never before known, we STILL don't completely understand why the atmosphere reacts the way it does, when it does. That's the whole reason I'm here in this blog......


for every action there is a reaction
for evey reaction there is a action

The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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