Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 954FtLCane:
this storm totally stinks... its like a bad episode of a bad episode of IKE show


What is with these people, attack, attack, attack! Get a life, just because IKE doesn't post doom and gloom doesn't make him a bad poster! He always puts up what he sees, just like most everyone here, it's weather!
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Richard will be lucky if he makes it to cane status. Honduras is going to cause even more problems with inflow.
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Quoting IKE:


What the hell do you mean by that?


Don't let it bother you Ike, do what I am doing.. rapidly expanding my list.. there seem to be a batch of trolls on here trying to stir it...and I am starting to get peeved.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting InTheCone:
IKE - Look OUT!!

You've got an incoming..... 20 mph dot - lol!

HWRF


Now that run is an excellent example of what should happen....storm runs into the Yucatan, gets drawn out towards, yes, Florida, but in a much weakened state. It's not madness, and never has been.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You need to listen to what you say. Yes, you may have material things to lose but the :third world countries" have lives to lose and I for one put a much higher value on that than I do on your material things.

Thank you for explaining this, but I notice this particular poster often post a reference inferring the same thing, anyway he didn't pounce back even as hard as I pounced and some others, this alone tells me deep down inside he might come off more harsh than he appears and for that I give him credit, for others you offer an apology and its neither acknowledged by being accepted or rejected, I prefer rejection anyday, lets you know where you stand, but with neither you understand just who that person is inside, one word Cold!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Woops!

Guess I was right, the season wont end on November 31st LOL.


Hey, that's what friends are for!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Orcasystems:


I may get banned for this.. but sometimes its just worth it.....

If you just kept your yip shut... most of the stuff on here wouldn't be happening.. you ARE the weakest link in the Troll world... please go away.


+1000000
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IKE - Look OUT!!

You've got an incoming..... 20 mph dot - lol!

HWRF
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214. IKE
Quoting 954FtLCane:
this storm totally stinks... its like a bad episode of a bad episode of IKE show


What the hell do you mean by that?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Don't feed the troll, it only makes him hungrier and able to drop bigger dumps in the punch bowl. I had him on ignore, but I took him off. I use his posts as a training technique for keeping my composure during depositions.

Keep this mind, nobody here can influence where a storm goes. So, while Ike and his ilk may be annoying downers, it is just words. These storms will go where they go.


Annoying downer = troll? Doesn't quite fit the definition.
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GW discussions drive me into the ground.Just like the kids when I come from work.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Teddy, 30 days has September, April, June, and November........ November 31?????? LOL


Woops!

Guess I was right, the season wont end on November 31st LOL.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'll just focus all my attention on the WPAC and Southern Hemisphere seasons post season. Daily blogs, outlooks, ect.
Oh yeah, I love western Pacific development. Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones are kinda weird to me (probably because they spin clockwise).
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When it gets to 22N it will no longer be tropical. It will be interesting to see if it can become a cane this weekend.



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205. IKE
Quoting Cora1979:
I don't know IKE... You really think the season is going to respect a date this year?

CV is supposed to be over too, right?

I bet we go beyond the traditional season.


It could.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
15.8N and 82.3W...coordinates for Rick....that's about 70-80 miles from landfall....IF it moved slightly south of west.
We can hope he takes the swan dive into Honduras before strengthening much further. That's probably the best possible outcome for all.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doubt that this season ends on Nov. 31st.. suspect we're in for 1 more storm post season.


Hey, Teddy, 30 days has September, April, June, and November........ November 31?????? LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's when we duck away and walk away. I must admit though, the last few GW discussions I've learned a bit of stuff.


I'll just focus all my attention on the WPAC and Southern Hemisphere seasons post season. Daily blogs, outlooks, ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh god.
That's when we duck away and walk away. I must admit though, the last few GW discussions I've learned a bit of stuff.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Keep pushing admin to IP-ban them. Or we can have Princess Leia plead with Obi-Wan lol


Nope, I never do that. I just sit back and watch the show. And how was your day, Canes?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting IKE:
This blog has turned into nothing more than a pissing contest.

Thank God the tropical season is 39 days and 5 hours from being finished.


Doubt that this season ends on Nov. 31st.. suspect we're in for 1 more storm post season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting RadarRich:
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...etc


I just want to acknowledge myself from earlier today, being humble as best I can.

247. RadarRich 5:41 PM GMT on October 22, 2010
If ever a Storm had the potential for a relocation of the surface COC, I believe Richard is right up there in that potential. However, we will not get that actual data until another recon sends back some data. So, it is a guessing game until that time, and we all will have to go by what we are seeing on the Satelite Images. IMO, we will have an adjustment later today to the North by .5 to 1 degree or so, but, I could be wrong, shall see what they find later today at 5PM

314. RadarRich 6:18 PM GMT on October 22, 2010
REPOST:
Satelite Images definitely look like the center is North of the NHC's Forcast Track Points. I POSTED it myself earlier, BUT, I think what we are seeing is the mid-level circulation, and not the LLC, which was found by the HH earlier. The vertically stacked concept is what is coming into play right now. It is not vertically stacked. The recon may have found the LLC at 15.8, however, Richard is tilted Northward from the LLC to the Mid Level circulation. That being said, the stronger of these two circulations looks to be the mid-level one, and will probably work its way down to the surface and take over the original LLC in the next 12 hours or so.
JMO as always.Rich

I think the relocation is happening as we speak, and not in the next 12 hours or so as I mentioned above.
Lack of recon is why they are sticking with 15.8N. It would really amaze me if relocation is not occurring now, and most likely will be noted in the next update at 5PM

Just an observation that panned out. Blind squirrell does occassionally find a nut, lol, all in good fun, Richard


Good call and I did notice a couple others mention it too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
And a lot of others mentioned that relocation as well
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Time: 23:52:00Z
Coordinates: 15.7333N 81.1167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 925.0 mb (~ 27.32 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 762 meters (~ 2,500 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.8 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 148° at 27 knots (From the SSE at ~ 31.0 mph)
Air Temp: 19.9°C (~ 67.8°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 18 mm/hr (~ 0.71 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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I don't know IKE... You really think the season is going to respect a date this year?

CV is supposed to be over too, right?

I bet we go beyond the traditional season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


LOL...no fighting from me over a blizzard. Just wait til GW topics pop up soon.


Oh god.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting Grothar:


What, You don't like to fight over blizzards? There was more trollish behavior in the off-season than now. Come on IKE, stick with it.


Keep pushing admin to IP-ban them. Or we can have Princess Leia plead with Obi-Wan lol
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Chief, calm down. I said we should be thankful. I did not wish any harm on 3rd world countries, a term used by the United Nations and governments. They have had it hard this year with hurricanes and earthquakes, and you need to listen to what people say before you lash out
You need to listen to what you say. Yes, you may have material things to lose but the :third world countries" have lives to lose and I for one put a much higher value on that than I do on your material things.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
190. IKE
Quoting Grothar:


What, You don't like to fight over blizzards? There was more trollish behavior in the off-season than now. Come on IKE, stick with it.


LOL...no fighting from me over a blizzard. Just wait til GW topics pop up soon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...etc


I just want to acknowledge myself from earlier today, being humble as best I can.

247. RadarRich 5:41 PM GMT on October 22, 2010
If ever a Storm had the potential for a relocation of the surface COC, I believe Richard is right up there in that potential. However, we will not get that actual data until another recon sends back some data. So, it is a guessing game until that time, and we all will have to go by what we are seeing on the Satelite Images. IMO, we will have an adjustment later today to the North by .5 to 1 degree or so, but, I could be wrong, shall see what they find later today at 5PM

314. RadarRich 6:18 PM GMT on October 22, 2010
REPOST:
Satelite Images definitely look like the center is North of the NHC's Forcast Track Points. I POSTED it myself earlier, BUT, I think what we are seeing is the mid-level circulation, and not the LLC, which was found by the HH earlier. The vertically stacked concept is what is coming into play right now. It is not vertically stacked. The recon may have found the LLC at 15.8, however, Richard is tilted Northward from the LLC to the Mid Level circulation. That being said, the stronger of these two circulations looks to be the mid-level one, and will probably work its way down to the surface and take over the original LLC in the next 12 hours or so.
JMO as always.Rich

I think the relocation is happening as we speak, and not in the next 12 hours or so as I mentioned above.
Lack of recon is why they are sticking with 15.8N. It would really amaze me if relocation is not occurring now, and most likely will be noted in the next update at 5PM

Just an observation that panned out. Blind squirrell does occassionally find a nut, lol, all in good fun, Richard


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Quoting IKE:
This blog has turned into nothing more than a pissing contest.

Thank God the tropical season is 39 days and 5 hours from being finished.


Amen Brother....who would ever think a discussion about weather would get some panties in such a twist. Just for those who may not realize it...there are no points for guessing right, no negative points for guessing wrong...fact is, you clicked on the wrong link for your fantasy cheerleading league, this link is for weather discussion, education and (sorry, this is probably a word you don't understand) UNDERSTANDING
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Quoting Cora1979:


So much for spell check, eh?? LOL!


Yeah, some prob. even wonder what the red squiggly underline means - LOL!
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Actually Richard reminds me your posts here a true DICK!
You really earned my respect tonight.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
i don't think it matters what direction it goes. 120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Man you should be ashamed!! Then some may wonder why you all are hated by many, this is the attitude that causes it, Mind you I'm pro'american, my grandfather was a US citizen, but you know what the poorest here in Grand Cayman is built probably better than some of the considered best in the U.S., On another note my wife is Belizean and I visisted her country for the first time this past summer, yes it is a poor but a hardworking and decent people, plus I noticed most of their houses had concrete roofs, a great protection against hurricanes!! They also after disasters don't wait around for the Government to help instead they lick their wounds and get back to work rebuilding fast, when you have so much to lose everything is taken for granted pal, when you nothing to lose , very little is taken for granted! So keep on acting like others don't exist on this planet, pretty soon you'll wake up to reality but by then it might just be to late for the likes of you!!
Well put.I don't like when people think that the U.S is the only country that exsist/matters in hurricane territory(Like the media here).
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180. IKE
This blog has turned into nothing more than a pissing contest.

Thank God the tropical season is 39 days and 5 hours from being finished.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RICHARD...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE NOT CHANGED IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Man you should be ashamed!! Then some may wonder why you all are hated by many, this is the attitude that causes it, Mind you I'm pro'american, my grandfather was a US citizen, but you know what the poorest here in Grand Cayman is built probably better than some of the considered best in the U.S., On another note my wife is Belizean and I visisted her country for the first time this past summer, yes it is a poor but a hardworking and decent people, plus I noticed most of their houses had concrete roofs, a great protection against hurricanes!! They also after diasters don't wait arounds for the Government to help instead they lick their wound and get back to work rebuilding fast, whne you have so much to lose everything is taken for granted pal, when you nothing to lose or very little is taken for granted! So keep on acting like others don't exist on this planet, pretty soon you'll wake wake up to reality but by then it might just be to late for the likes of you!!


Stormpetrol,

Don't waste your time with this intellectual midget. You are actually one of the people here who contributes to the blog and this person (says he's a man but has a femenine nickname) is only here to piss people off!

IGNORE HIM
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


And you get a -1 for spelling ;-)



So much for spell check, eh?? LOL!
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Quoting SQUAWK:


You sir, are a moron. If Ike bothers you that much, simply put him on ignore. He is the voice of reason in this blog and has been for a long time. Your wishcasting will not make it so. Why don't you go elsewhere to blog if you aren't smart enough to find the ignore button or mature enough to just not let it get to you.


+10
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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