Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keeper, I don't usually compliment people too much, but no one can post an X like you do.
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Quoting AEKDB1990:
What are the odds that Richard will stay too close to Honduras to become a hurricane?
31%....you'd get 2/1 odds if they took that wager in Vegas. Not a big longshot.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


naw, in the spring it warms up, the igloo melts... have to move into the buffalo robe tents beside the beaver dam, and smoke fish for the winter :)

In the fall when it starts to snow again.. we build the igloo again... and play hockey on the beaver pond ;)


Yes, I remember my days in Comox, well. Don't forget who you are talking to, Orca. LOLOL
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The GFS is continuing to support the thinking that we will have to watch for Shary in the eastern Caribbean during the first week of November.

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954FTLCane,

I think I get the idea u were trying to make a joke... but maybe a little to obscure for us to handle? It just sounded like u r mad with Ike....

ANyhoo....

I am assuming all these trollish comments are being inspired by

1) complete lack of liquor in the fridge or cupboard due to it being a week before pay day at the end of the month

2) complete lack of love [ahem] due to the fact that all these guys' girlfriends have dumped them i.e. kicked to the curb

3) complete lack of petrol to go driving in our new or not so new cars; see reason 1 as to the due to on that one

or

4) all of the above.

thus leading to pple coming into the blog and taking out their angst on their fellow bloggers by being as crabby as possible.

But I say: TGIF.... a rum cake is almost as good as a rum and coke... if you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with, with interet there's simulation, and most importantly of all.... Richard has great outflow!

What more can u want on a Friday night..... lol

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265. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
Sorry Ike....it's just that you are a downer on every system..I am here to enjoy the watching the storms. It's not tghat I can't ignore you but you are on here all the time since May...every dam storm get's the IKE stamp of disapproval..if the shear is weak you say it's not...if the storm is turning towards land you say it's not....you should be an attorney...you are not mellow..you are a pain in the neck to those who enjoy storms..If I could take your copy/paste function away you would actually have to say something intelligent. Once again, it's been a long season and your act is very stale at this point.


And you've got problems. Are you so stupid that you can't simply put me on ignore?

You're the type that will always make me root against ANY storm in the Atlantic. You act pissed off because the state you live in isn't being smashed by Rick.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting portcharlotte:
Sorry Ike....it's just that you are a downer on every system..I am here to enjoy the watching the storms. It's not tghat I can't ignore you but you are on here all the time since May...every dam storm get's the IKE stamp of disapproval..if the shear is weak you say it's not...if the storm is turning towards land you say it's not....you should be an attorney...you are not mellow..you are a pain in the neck to those who enjoy storms..If I could take your copy/paste function away you would actually have to say something intelligent. Once again, it's been a long season and your act is very stale at this point.


Then put him on ignore.. problem solved.. instead of spewing your yip about it.

You are also acting like the troll group on here.. you don't know when to leave well enough alone.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Don't let it bother you Ike, do what I am doing.. rapidly expanding my list.. there seem to be a batch of trolls on here trying to stir it...and I am starting to get peeved.
Well what I do is simply skip over the foolish post.And it has worked very good for me.i gave this advice to a few other bloggers and it worked for them to.Try it and tell me the results.
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Quoting Grothar:


Nope, I never do that. I just sit back and watch the show. And how was your day, Canes?


Quite honestly Grothar, my day was a thousand times better than what happened a year ago on this day.
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you know, after 900 entries I'm finally noticed but of course for bothering y'all. You guys are such a tough nut to bust. This is almost like high school and there is a definite click in here. You'll talk to each other and never mind attention to a many others that enter posts looking for answers or knowledge.
I do have to admit that is one thing stormw always did and that is something this blog is sorely missing.
Please y'all open up your minds every once in a while there are others that want to join the community and can be great add-ons!
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting Grothar:


You all get rain up there? I thought it only snowed. See, you learn a lot on this blog.


naw, in the spring it warms up, the igloo melts... have to move into the buffalo robe tents beside the beaver dam, and smoke fish for the winter :)

In the fall when it starts to snow again.. we build the igloo again... and play hockey on the beaver pond ;)
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Quoting IKE:
Barrow losing 10 minutes of sunlight a day now. Darkness getting closer....

Barrow, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 37 min 50 sec ago
Light Snow
28 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 12 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 26 °F
Wind: 29 mph from the East
Pressure: 30.05 in (Steady)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 1200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 4.0 in
Elevation: 43 ft


Yup yup.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


The rain I can handle... this 10C weather sucks.. and you said it was going to be a cold winter... ie: snow.

Your not making me happy right now.


Snow in BC in October? Keep dreaming....it'll come lol. The worst part of the winter will be January-March for both of us. Until Christmas it will probably be fluctuating near normal on average, but after New Year's it's gonna really crash.
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255. IKE
Barrow losing 10 minutes of sunlight a day now. Darkness getting closer....

Barrow, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 37 min 50 sec ago
Light Snow
28 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 12 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 26 °F
Wind: 29 mph from the East
Pressure: 30.05 in (Steady)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 1200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 4.0 in
Elevation: 43 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Grothar:


Will you also agree to stop posting my Globes?
The Cape Verde season is over so I'm not gonna need them. I guess I won't post them...until next year of course. :p
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Quoting Orcasystems:


The rain I can handle... this 10C weather sucks.. and you said it was going to be a cold winter... ie: snow.

Your not making me happy right now.


You all get rain up there? I thought it only snowed. See, you learn a lot on this blog.
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Quoting Levi32:


Why Orca...been rainy I assume? Get used to that this winter...lol.


The rain I can handle... this 10C weather sucks.. and you said it was going to be a cold winter... ie: snow.

Your not making me happy right now.
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Quoting IKE:


What the hell do you mean by that?
I thought maybe it was some TV show I hadn't seen, like Seinfeld, and was just going to ask, "U got a tv show AND a hurricane named after u, Ike?" lol

If that's not what it was, I am now myself kinda curious.....
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249. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree completely.


Will you also agree to stop posting my Globes?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Levi.. what did you do to my weather??
I am starting to feel like I live up in your neck of the world... not Victoria BC??


Why Orca...been rainy I assume? Get used to that this winter...lol.
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Reed

I appreciate your iterest in weather. I agree great outflow. That's what it's all about in loving weather and watching storms...


Quoting reedzone:
BEAUTIFUL outflow!!

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'll just focus all my attention on the WPAC and Southern Hemisphere seasons post season. Daily blogs, outlooks, ect.
Some of the most interesting storms all year are in the South Indian Ocean... stuff that hits East Africa, Madagascar, NW Australia.... some interesting tracks from time to time. I don't find S Pac storms so stimulating, for some reason...
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244. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Don't let it bother you Ike, do what I am doing.. rapidly expanding my list.. there seem to be a batch of trolls on here trying to stir it...and I am starting to get peeved.



Blog is terrible lately.

Quoting 954FtLCane:

Ha ha, this storm/blog is like a TV cop show, a bad TV cop show and your like the narrator that says "well it looks like this murder may happen but look someone left the soap on the floor and the murderer will slip" (camera zooms in on the soap bar) ... and poof... their goes the murderer!!


I don't even know what you mean...maybe I'm too stupid to know or just don't care.

This blog is a perfect example of why being mellow is a blessing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting InTheCone:


Totally agree with your analysis of this storm from the beginning. That solution would be very close to what you were talking about - what over a week ago?


I set the situation up on October 15th. So far it's just details that are having to be worked out, but the overall idea is working out nicely so far.
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Just having fun. y'all don't be so well mad. I think it's funny.
I like everyone's posts. Y'all all me laugh, btw hard at times.
To me this is a very insightful sight and I appreciate what everyone has to offer.
I have no one on ignore and at times the banter is way awesome so please dont get mad at me because if u do I may cry. :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting HurricaneRichard:


If so, why do you spend so much time in here then
Besides the fact that I know that you have been a paying member of this site since 05.


maybe because he cares about the weather.. and he has friends on the blog... and has been a member for a lot longer then one whole day.

HurricaneRichard
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

You can join the rest of the troll group who is playing on here.
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Quoting robert88:
HWRF looks like a great solution at this point.
I agree completely.
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Quoting HurricaneRichard:
^_^




why hello JFV you been report for not noing when too stop makeing new names when some one banneds you
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HWRF looks like a great solution at this point.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


So weakened that it is, if it gets there, just a rain event. IMHO.


Possibly yup. SSTs aren't even 26C along the north gulf coast. The only real risk from this was SW Florida if it went through the channel, which it doesn't look like it's going to.
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Wow!

Hang in there IKE. Don't let them tear you or your analysis down and run you off like StormW.

You've been here a long time and some of us look to see what you have to say.
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TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned southward to (10.5degrees west of) SouthWest
from its previous heading (1degree north of) NorthWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~16mph(~25.7km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~12.6mph(~20.4km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.5w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Oct 03amGMT - 15.9n80.5w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5
22Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n80.4w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
22Oct 09amGMT - 16.0n80.3w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#6
22Oct 12pmGMT - 15.9n80.7w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#6A
22Oct 03pmGMT - 15.8n81.1w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7
22Oct 06pmGMT - 15.8n81.3w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7A
22Oct 09pmGMT - 16.2n81.7w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#8
23Oct 12amGMT - 15.8n82.3w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#8A

Copy&paste 16.0n80.5w, 15.9n80.5w, 15.8n80.4w, 16.0n80.3w, 15.9n80.7w-15.8n81.1w, 15.8n81.1w-15.8n81.3w, 15.8n81.3w-16.2n81.7w, 16.2n81.7w-15.8n82.3w, pnd, 15.8n82.3w-15.11n83.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

.Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~5hours from now to Tusidaksa,Honduras

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
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Quoting Levi32:


Now that run is an excellent example of what should happen....storm runs into the Yucatan, gets drawn out towards, yes, Florida, but in a much weakened state. It's not madness, and never has been.


Totally agree with your analysis of this storm from the beginning. That solution would be very close to what you were talking about - what over a week ago?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Link
You have been reported. Read the Community Standards.
The problem with this world is that there are so many sensitive politically correct types in the world now that we can't say anything sincere anymore without someone getting their feelings hurt. Look at the Juan Williams firing. At any rate I don't wish you or your people harm. Sorry you don't see it that way.

Its ok man, I been banned from here for 3 weeks and personally I wouldn't even care if its permanent, I'm not hung up on this blog at all, I have better things to do. Goodnight!!
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BEAUTIFUL outflow!!

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting Levi32:


Now that run is an excellent example of what should happen....storm runs into the Yucatan, gets drawn out towards, yes, Florida, but in a much weakened state. It's not madness, and never has been.


Levi.. what did you do to my weather??
I am starting to feel like I live up in your neck of the world... not Victoria BC??
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.