Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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319. Patrap 12:57 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

Good to see you again.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Exacally.I thought I was the only one to notice the blog clique."They" I will say only read/comment on their favortite bloggers.That is why I only come on when a storm is in exsistanc.I can really careless if I'm on ignore."They" only talk among themselves and leave out others.But that's okay.Who needs 'em right?

I'm there.... we are of men not mice
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well what I do is simply skip over the foolish post.And it has worked very good for me.i gave this advice to a few other bloggers and it worked for them to.Try it and tell me the results.

To Easy!
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That's refreshing...I hope that's true. He should come out into the open and reveal himself...let's see his photo


Quoting stormpetrol:

You know I'm actually admiring Ike though I disagree with just about everything he does, he is very smart at what he does and is probably intelligent in general though most of his post are copy and paste to suit his taste for what he does, he uses reverse psychology, deep down he want a storm/ hurricane to blow his way but wants to appear the complete opposite, but Ike is not a troll, he's a long time blogger on wunderground and has posted interesting graphics, even though most go against his own personal wishes that he'd rather keep suppressed from us!! JMO!!!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Not true.. I don't like you because your an idiot, and your trying to stir the pot


I can assure you, if I didn't have "lawyer" in my username, people would be far less offended by my comments.

An idiot? Come on. There are genuine idiots on this board, textbook idiots as a matter of fact. Why don't you waste some bandwidth on them.

I am not riling people up, nor am I trying. Ike riles them up worse than I ever could, or have, with his subtle techniques. You obviously have me mistaken with someone else.
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320. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
9:00 AM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Taiwan Strait

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Megi (975 hPa) located at 23.4N 118.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 26.0N 117.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 27.6N 118.2E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46527
The Blog this Friday Evening..


WHIP YO HAIR GURL
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Quoting HurricaneRichard:


Amen to that. He's been at it like this since June 1st.
and how many usernames have you had since june first i know ike has had one
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Orca, I must say "'nuff respec'" to u, for even reading these guys' @$#%...... maybe that halo isn't so misplaced after all....


You know me :)
Just a shining example of S&I.
I counted all the way to 100 to calm myself down... so I should be OK now.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting 954FtLCane:
OH MY GOD I AM LOVED, I AM LOVED, Has the community embraced me ?
Hey, u have FTL in ur name.... what's not to love? lol

Plus I know what 954 stands 4..... lol
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Hey, I am not looking for a smashing hurricane, we got smashed in Charley...lost half my house...I just think tropical systems are great acts of nature to watch and science is filled with various forms of data to be digested. You only contribute data that fits your wishes which is fine but rather boring. I'll end this and move on. Ike can you let a sheared Richard come my way to give us rain or is that not possible with your data...



You know I'm actually admiring Ike though I disagree with just about everything he does, he is very smart at what he does and is probably intelligent in general though most of his post are copy and paste to suit his taste for what he does, he uses reverse psychology, deep down he want a storm/ hurricane to blow his way but wants to appear the complete opposite, but Ike is not a troll, he's a long time blogger on wunderground and has posted interesting graphics, even though most go against his own personal wishes that he'd rather keep suppressed from us!! JMO!!!
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Quoting calusakat:
MIMIC-TPW

What is all the fuss about?

Ricky be headed westward to the Pacific.

Westward Ho !!

MIMIC-TPW is going to turn out to be one of the best hurricane weather tools ever devised!!

You can see the dry air setting up a great wall against Ricky.

Don't take my word for it, see for yourself.




Nice!
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Quoting caneswatch:


And you'll get more if you do! lol


Oh, yeah! You were one of them.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
you know, after 900 entries I'm finally noticed but of course for bothering y'all. You guys are such a tough nut to bust. This is almost like high school and there is a definite click in here. You'll talk to each other and never mind attention to a many others that enter posts looking for answers or knowledge.
I do have to admit that is one thing stormw always did and that is something this blog is sorely missing.
Please y'all open up your minds every once in a while there are others that want to join the community and can be great add-ons!
Exacally.I thought I was the only one to notice the blog clique."They" I will say only read/comment on their favortite bloggers.That is why I only come on when a storm is in exsistanc.I can really careless if I'm on ignore."They" only talk among themselves and leave out others.But that's okay.Who needs 'em right?
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


Oh, so I am to blame for people finally having enough of the downer and calling Ike out, huh?

My few little comments have caused the entire blog to implode. Wow, I am impressed. I wish I had such an influence over the federal judiciary.

Please.

Ike has been under so many people's skin it is comical. I have an inbox full of PMs from people who feel the same way. So, if it is my fault that people decided to voice their opinion, I am not ashamed. However, I think you are making an unfounded and absurd statement.

Also, I don't wring my hands over the threat of storms striking land and I don't pretend to be something I am not.

However, I am not a troll. I don't come here to rile people up. I don't incite them or rub their noses in it when things don't go the way they wish. I come here to listen to some interesting perspectives and once in a while post a thought. I don't make predictions, I don't claim to be a met, or have a blog where I track storms. For the most part, I just read.

However, it is clear that the only reason people get pissed off at me is because I am an attorney and people in this country harbor a strong dislike for attorneys. There are also plenty of insurance adjusters, contractors, construction workers, and others in the home damage/reconstruction field that are on this board. They are on here for the same reasons I am on here, whether they admit it or not.





Rewind...

Did I read this wrong and come to the conclusion that you're on here essentially as "an ambulance chaser"?!

Please correct me if I'm wrong...

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I still enjoy watching...What;s bizarre is that I am an early riser and when I log in to get the latest there he is is copying and pasting the only map or discussion he can find that supports his diet downplaying. portraying maps manipulated to show a scenario



Quoting capeflorida:

So let me get this right. Ike is keeping you from "enjoying watching the storms"???. Are you serious? Does Ike have this magical wand to make storms dissapear infront of you?
Quoting capeflorida:

So let me get this right. Ike is keeping you from "enjoying watching the storms"???. Are you serious? Does Ike have this magical wand to make storms dissapear infront of you?
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


..My few little comments have caused the entire blog to implode...


Yeah, that's what trolls cause. POOF
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Quoting IKE:


And if he's tired of reading my boring posts that annoy him...just put me on ignore. I'll be okay. It won't make me mad.
you know what i will quote everything you post next season just to make sure he can see it
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MIMIC-TPW

What is all the fuss about?

Ricky be headed westward to the Pacific.

Westward Ho !!

MIMIC-TPW is going to turn out to be one of the best hurricane weather tools ever devised!!

You can see the dry air setting up a great wall against Ricky.

Don't take my word for it, see for yourself.


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Quoting Grothar:


KEEPER, just can't help myself sometimes. I posted 2 X's today myself. Got some flack for it, too!


And you'll get more if you do! lol
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Not true.. I don't like you because your an idiot, and your trying to stir the pot
Orca, I must say "'nuff respec'" to u, for even reading these guys' @$#%...... maybe that halo isn't so misplaced after all....
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hey guys just popping in it seems that Richard is now starting to reform or shift its COC it near 16.0N 80.9W
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302. IKE
Winds about the same in Rick.

Pressure...1008.3 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg)


And Thunderclap Newman blasting on my speakers.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't start


KEEPER, just can't help myself sometimes. I posted 2 X's today myself. Got some flack for it, too!
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268. BahaHurican 12:38 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

A very astute observation.

"and most importantly of all.... Richard has great outflow!"

Thank you, I think! :)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
evening Baha,

I saw your comments earlier about the bad wx from the trough. It all was north of us here. I think perhaps some folks between us got the worst.
Yeah, I got stuck at work because of the heavy downpour and lightning, then drove to a meeting, which was when I found out about the tornado warning and all. I think points south, like Cat Island etc, prolly got some hefty rains also....

Good to see u in the blog, BTW.... I've been working like a stevedore, albeit not actually LIFTING stuff much.... lol
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Not true.. I don't like you because your an idiot.


+10000
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You have to admit.. it was a pretty good response :)


It was!!! You have made me laugh many times. Very few throw zingers as well as you.
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OH MY GOD I AM LOVED, I AM LOVED, Has the community embraced me ?
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
295. IKE
Quoting capeflorida:

So let me get this right. Ike is keeping you from "enjoying watching the storms"???. Are you serious? Does Ike have this magical wand to make storms dissapear infront of you?


And if he's tired of reading my boring posts that annoy him...just put me on ignore. I'll be okay. It won't make me mad.
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Quoting Grothar:


Keeper, I don't usually compliment people too much, but no one can post an X like you do.
don't start
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Thanks for responding cosmic.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Not true.. I don't like you because your an idiot.


And he's a attorney, but I repeat myself.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


PR and out to the East.


Thanks.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Sorry Ike....it's just that you are a downer on every system..I am here to enjoy the watching the storms. It's not tghat I can't ignore you but you are on here all the time since May...every dam storm get's the IKE stamp of disapproval..if the shear is weak you say it's not...if the storm is turning towards land you say it's not....you should be an attorney...you are not mellow..you are a pain in the neck to those who enjoy storms..If I could take your copy/paste function away you would actually have to say something intelligent. Once again, it's been a long season and your act is very stale at this point.

So let me get this right. Ike is keeping you from "enjoying watching the storms"???. Are you serious? Does Ike have this magical wand to make storms dissapear infront of you?
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


However, it is clear that the only reason people get pissed off at me is because I am an attorney





Not true.. I don't like you because your trying to stir the pot
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting Levi32:
The GFS is continuing to support the thinking that we will have to watch for Shary in the eastern Caribbean during the first week of November.

Hmmm.... I was kinda wondering if that EAtl AOI might make it far enough along to get named.... but last report has it heading pretty much N... which IMO pretty much puts paid to that.... I must say the CVs have gotten quite a lot of rain from relatively organized systems this year....
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Quoting HurricaneRichard:


Does it take it towards Florida?


PR and out to the East.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
31%....you'd get 2/1 odds if they took that wager in Vegas. Not a big longshot.


10 to 1 says talking about gambling is not allowed!
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Hey, I am not looking for a smashing hurricane, we got smashed in Charley...lost half my house...I just think tropical systems are great acts of nature to watch and science is filled with various forms of data to be digested. You only contribute data that fits your wishes which is fine but rather boring. I'll end this and move on. Ike can you let a sheared Richard come my way to give us rain or is that not possible with your data...


Quoting IKE:


And you've got problems. Are you so stupid that you can't simply put me on ignore?

You're the type that will always make me root against ANY storm in the Atlantic. You act pissed off because the state you live in isn't being smashed by Rick.

Quoting IKE:


And you've got problems. Are you so stupid that you can't simply put me on ignore?

You're the type that will always make me root against ANY storm in the Atlantic. You act pissed off because the state you live in isn't being smashed by Rick.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
954FTLCane,

I think I get the idea u were trying to make a joke... but maybe a little to obscure for us to handle? It just sounded like u r mad with Ike....

ANyhoo....

I am assuming all these trollish comments are being inspired by

1) complete lack of liquor in the fridge or cupboard due to it being a week before pay day at the end of the month

2) complete lack of love [ahem] due to the fact that all these guys' girlfriends have dumped them i.e. kicked to the curb

3) complete lack of petrol to go driving in our new or not so new cars; see reason 1 as to the due to on that one

or

4) all of the above.

thus leading to pple coming into the blog and taking out their angst on their fellow bloggers by being as crabby as possible.

But I say: TGIF.... a rum cake is almost as good as a rum and coke... if you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with, with interet there's simulation, and most importantly of all.... Richard has great outflow!

What more can u want on a Friday night..... lol


LMAO!! But #3complete lack of petrol, go easy on that one LOL!!
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evening Baha,

I saw your comments earlier about the bad wx from the trough. It all was north of us here. I think perhaps some folks between us got the worst.
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Quoting Levi32:
The GFS is continuing to support the thinking that we will have to watch for Shary in the eastern Caribbean during the first week of November.



Does it take it towards Florida?
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Peace, out...

Go drink a beer, boys!

Chack back in tomorrow and see what's going on...
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I remember my days in Comox, well. Don't forget who you are talking to, Orca. LOLOL


You have to admit.. it was a pretty good response :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Just having fun. y'all don't be so well mad. I think it's funny.
I like everyone's posts. Y'all all me laugh, btw hard at times.
To me this is a very insightful sight and I appreciate what everyone has to offer.
I have no one on ignore and at times the banter is way awesome so please dont get mad at me because if u do I may cry. :-)


Same here.........think its just "blog withdrawal" as the season is ending. I,too, enjoy it all...and wouldn't it be boring here if everyone thought alike. Tolerance I say...there is room for all here on WU.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
954FTLCane,

I think I get the idea u were trying to make a joke... but maybe a little to obscure for us to handle? It just sounded like u r mad with Ike....

ANyhoo....

I am assuming all these trollish comments are being inspired by

1) complete lack of liquor in the fridge or cupboard due to it being a week before pay day at the end of the month

2) complete lack of love [ahem] due to the fact that all these guys' girlfriends have dumped them i.e. kicked to the curb

3) complete lack of petrol to go driving in our new or not so new cars; see reason 1 as to the due to on that one

or

4) all of the above.

thus leading to pple coming into the blog and taking out their angst on their fellow bloggers by being as crabby as possible.

But I say: TGIF.... a rum cake is almost as good as a rum and coke... if you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with, with interet there's simulation, and most importantly of all.... Richard has great outflow!

What more can u want on a Friday night..... lol


HAHA Love it!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keeper, I don't usually compliment people too much, but no one can post an X like you do.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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