Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 375 - 325

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Quoting pilotguy1:


No he's working for billable hours. get a clue.


Very true. Only of which a fraction I see. I work like a dog and I take pride in the fact that I can actually help people, because of the position in which I am placed.

Tell me, who is worse....the attorney who works for billables, or the one who takes 40% of what your lawsuit yields?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
374. xcool
hmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I didn't mean that you think you are better than anyone else although it is evident that others on here think they are. I only meant people will not talk about you if you are a wallflower.
I have to respect Ike, even though I don't always agree with him. At least Ike's putting his "say" out there. A lot of the pple who "can't stand him" also have nothing to say of any real consequence either way. Also, I disagree with pple who say Ike doesn't "admit" that bad things are likely to happen. I sure didn't see him pretending storms in 2008 were going to "go away". I can respect an attitude that says, "boy, I sure hope nobody gets hit by anything", but posts what's happening regardless. That's what Ike does. I don't want to try to ascribe emotions to pple based on blog comments, because sometimes they are misleading. However, at least some of the bloggers' comments about Ike seem IMO to be jealousy-driven or at best pot-stirring. [I have a feeling pple also don't like the fact that he doesn't get emotional and over-react when they disagree with him.]

YMMV

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm watch it.. he fixed the weather machine.. and he knows where you are.

thats been locked on tumble weed and dust mode for the next four months or so
that should make em crunchy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike, hurricanes and tropical systems are not all death and destruction. A good part of Florida's precipitation is derived normally from tropical systems. Hurricanes in Florida have been occurring since earth began. There are many benefits in tropical storms and more deaths occur from other causes than tropical storms. Only when you reach a major category do you see structural damage occurring. I have been through a number of storms since moving to Florida in 1961. I can only remember one which caused death close to me and that was a Cat 4 hurcn Charley in a very small area. This just my opinion but as we know hurricanes are important transporters of heat and are critical to the survival of our planet.



Quoting IKE:


I'm no better than anybody else...but I'm not sitting on a blog wishing for death and destruction.

There are some on here that do. There are others that just want to experience a hurricane. Maybe they should be another OZ and chase hurricanes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


lol.





That's true.
One other thing, since you can wish hurricanes away from the panhandle can you please assist in wishing them away from Grand Cayman. Your help will be greatly appreciated. It would be nice if it could be done but not even you can do that as powerful as you may be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


No, but I do have a $2 Million rider on the (Koi) pond :)


Don't play koi with me. TTROFLBC
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
I have to say that Igor had me sweating. To strong. too close. We got the very outer windfield; I recorded a max of 36 mph as Igor passed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't know who "they" are... but I will say a couple things....

1. If u have thin skin, u won't last on this blog. It's reality; face it.

2. If you have a question that pple can answer, usually someone will answer it. Maybe nobody's saying anything to you because they don't know the answer to ur question.

3. If you have an answer that can help pple, u should be giving it. Even the newest recruits have learned something. Share - don't expect the old bloggers to always be the ones to feed the blog.

4. Add something to the blog. If u don't have anything to add, or if what u said is so obvious that pple don't have a response, you won't get one. Put yourself out there a bit more.

5. LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD. This blog doesn't revolve around you, me, or any other blogger. It doesn't even revolve around Dr. M.... and it's HIS blog..... don't assume that just because u post something you deserve an answer. Don't even assume there's somebody out there reading your post... sometimes there's literally no one else at home....

6. Lose the persecution complex. We r not running some clique; we r not "out to get" u... love the blog.... be the blog.... and the blog will love and be u back.... [that makes no sense, but u know what I mean....?]

All I'm sayin' in my longwinded way is the only face u can see as u blog is your own.... give other pple a little slack, and learn to separate the trollers from the bloggers....

i GIVE UP,
I'M GOING TO AN EARTHQUAKE BLOG!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Not bad for an igloo! Do you have to have a special rider for unexpected melting?


No, but I do have a $2 Million liability rider on the (Koi) pond :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Pressure up 1mb to 1008mb. Winds around 40-45mph.

000
URNT12 KNHC 230113
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 23/00:49:00Z
B. 15 deg 45 min N
082 deg 12 min W
C. 925 mb 754 m
D. 37 kt
E. 040 deg 67 nm
F. 116 deg 36 kt
G. 042 deg 83 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 21 C / 761 m
J. 22 C / 762 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF306 0619A RICHARD OB 10
MAX FL WIND 40 KT NE QUAD 00:06:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 053 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
LARGE LIGHT AND VAR WIND CENTER
;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Morris, you are a fine gentleman


When I was in law school, Morris came to speak to our ethics class. Yes, ethics. I went to Loyola, which has a strong lean towards the public interest. To say it was a hostile crowd is an understatement. You would think Saddam Hussein was coming to preach human rights. However, when it was over, he had a crowd of people around him, wanting to speak to him, ask him questions, etc. He won over the crowd almost instantly. It was quite interesting.

Also, interestingly, he went to Loyola and placed at the bottom of the class. Certainly did not impede his ability to become one of the most successful attorneys in NOLA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:


I did answer your question. Take a look. I come here to learn, watch, and read opinions of people who offer interesting, well founded conclusions. I also am amused by the personalities here and the dynamic.

If I were a troll, believe me, you would know all about it.

This is an internet board. It does serve a good service, in that it may inform those in need...but let's not overlook the main reason why most come here, which is because they enjoy it.


Yes you did. I withdrew my comment as soon as I saw that. Just wasn't quick enough on the modify button!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
361. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't forget the wiskey it really adds a special effect to cyclones upon landfall


lol.


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I didn't mean that you think you are better than anyone else although it is evident that others on here think they are. I only meant people will not talk about you if you are a wallflower.



That's true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Whaddaya mean... ur the #1 ringleader.... lol


Umm watch it.. he fixed the weather machine.. and he knows where you are.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


$9000????? a year???
Ummm mine is $490 :)


Not bad for an igloo! Do you have to have a special rider for unexpected melting?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Quoting scooster67:

To Easy!
Exsacally.Its very easy and it works almost 100% of the time.You should try it.Now while everyone is fighting tonight I'm doing exsacally what I just stated.And its keeping me out of trouble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
@BoyNSea....

Aren't u amazed that we've gotten away this easy so far for the season? I'm starting to get scared of Shary.... keep remembering Michelle's rains....


Yes, Baha, I'm still a bit nervous. There's some strange wx out there. But by the Grace, we'll get by.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Umm you can't get more stationary then this.




Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
blog clique no such thing you have mistaken
Whaddaya mean... ur the #1 ringleader.... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pilotguy1:


I hope I live long enough to see FL sky high insurance lowered.

Florida insurance rates will never go down. They have leveled off some. Rates are based on risk. It is inevitable that we will get another storm so why not now when we need the rain then waiting another year. There is gonna be a lot of fires next spring at this rate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:


You are absolutely, positively wrong. I am not a plaintiff's attorney. I am a defense attorney. And, in the unique field in which I practice, I am probably more help to claimants than the clueless "Ambulance Chasers" that they hire to assist them. However, I do my make my living from people's misfortune. So, feel free to heap venom upon me at will.


TOTALLY misunderstood your post!

Thank you for the clarification!!

That's an honorable profession. I have no problem with that.

I'm in the medical field, so you could say I make my living from others misfortune as well! At least on the defense side, it's working FOR the individuals!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, mine actually went down to $9,000, I can't complain.


$9000????? a year???
Ummm mine is $490 :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting IKE:


I'm no better than anybody else...but I'm not sitting on a blog wishing for death and destruction.

There are some on here that do. There are others that just want to experience a hurricane. Maybe they should be another OZ and chase hurricanes?
don't forget the wiskey it really adds a special effect to cyclones upon landfall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cora1979:


No comment to my question?

Well, well... If it was a true statement, let me buy you a one way ticket to the beach next CAT5 rolls on shore!

Lawyer in your name or not, I thought you were on here for the reason the rest of us are. To learn and share!

Troll of the highest magnitude, disgusting!


I did answer your question. Take a look. I come here to learn, watch, and read opinions of people who offer interesting, well founded conclusions. I also am amused by the personalities here and the dynamic.

If I were a troll, believe me, you would know all about it.

This is an internet board. It does serve a good service, in that it may inform those in need...but let's not overlook the main reason why most come here, which is because they enjoy it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I'm no better than anybody else...but I'm not sitting on a blog wishing for death and destruction.

There are some on here that do. There are others that just want to experience a hurricane. Maybe they should be another OZ and chase hurricanes?
I didn't mean that you think you are better than anyone else although it is evident that others on here think they are. I only meant people will not talk about you if you are a wallflower.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWaterFront:


If he does have that I'd like to talk with him. I think we could use that magical power to get Florida's sky high homeowner's insurance rates lowered, eventually. ;-)


Hey, mine actually went down to $9,000, I can't complain.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Quoting Cora1979:




Troll of the highest magnitude, disgusting!


+1 Please put 'it' on ignore - EVERYONE!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
338. BahaHurican 1:07 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

+1 :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
@BoyNSea....

Aren't u amazed that we've gotten away this easy so far for the season? I'm starting to get scared of Shary.... keep remembering Michelle's rains....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
341. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Boy Ike, you are really the most popular guy on here. People only talk about you when you are "somebody" they don't talk about you if you are "nobody". I wonder which they think is more annoying , your so called down casting or them ragging on you 24/7. I think the latter.


I'm no better than anybody else...but I'm not sitting on a blog wishing for death and destruction.

There are some on here that do. There are others that just want to experience a hurricane. Maybe they should be another OZ and chase hurricanes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
blog clique no such thing you have mistaken
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Exacally.I thought I was the only one to notice the blog clique."They" I will say only read/comment on their favortite bloggers.That is why I only come on when a storm is in exsistanc.I can really careless if I'm on ignore."They" only talk among themselves and leave out others.But that's okay.Who needs 'em right?
I don't know who "they" are... but I will say a couple things....

1. If u have thin skin, u won't last on this blog. It's reality; face it.

2. If you have a question that pple can answer, usually someone will answer it. Maybe nobody's saying anything to you because they don't know the answer to ur question.

3. If you have an answer that can help pple, u should be giving it. Even the newest recruits have learned something. Share - don't expect the old bloggers to always be the ones to feed the blog.

4. Add something to the blog. If u don't have anything to add, or if what u said is so obvious that pple don't have a response, you won't get one. Put yourself out there a bit more.

5. LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD. This blog doesn't revolve around you, me, or any other blogger. It doesn't even revolve around Dr. M.... and it's HIS blog..... don't assume that just because u post something you deserve an answer. Don't even assume there's somebody out there reading your post... sometimes there's literally no one else at home....

6. Lose the persecution complex. We r not running some clique; we r not "out to get" u... love the blog.... be the blog.... and the blog will love and be u back.... [that makes no sense, but u know what I mean....?]

All I'm sayin' in my longwinded way is the only face u can see as u blog is your own.... give other pple a little slack, and learn to separate the trollers from the bloggers....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, u have FTL in ur name.... what's not to love? lol

Plus I know what 954 stands 4..... lol

I know right like 954 wasn't enough I had to add FTL after it...uggg.... well it was the primitive stages of 2008 when I was trying to think of a clever name that obviously well was a bit to redundant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Removed due to misunderstanding resulting from a delayed response...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


And if he's tired of reading my boring posts that annoy him...just put me on ignore. I'll be okay. It won't make me mad.
Boy Ike, you are really the most popular guy on here. People only talk about you when you are "somebody" they don't talk about you if you are "nobody". I wonder which they think is more annoying , your so called down casting or them ragging on you 24/7. I think the latter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cora1979:


Rewind...

Did I read this wrong and come to the conclusion that you're on here essentially as "an ambulance chaser"?!

Please correct me if I'm wrong...



You are absolutely, positively wrong. I am not a plaintiff's attorney. I am a defense attorney. And, in the unique field in which I practice, I am probably more help to claimants than the clueless "Ambulance Chasers" that they hire to assist them. However, I do my make my living from people's misfortune. So, feel free to heap venom upon me at will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting capeflorida:

So let me get this right. Ike is keeping you from "enjoying watching the storms"???. Are you serious? Does Ike have this magical wand to make storms dissapear infront of you?


If he does have that I'd like to talk with him. I think we could use that magical power to get Florida's sky high homeowner's insurance rates lowered, eventually. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The Blog this Friday Evening..


WHIP YO HAIR GURL
rah rah rah rah rah rah...how great
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have to admit.. I do like this new graphic.. very simple.. yet informative :)



Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Time: 00:02:30Z
Coordinates: 16.3333N 81.0667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.4 mb (~ 27.30 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 773 meters (~ 2,536 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.6 mb (~ 29.84 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 115° at 32 knots (From the ESE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 19.9°C (~ 67.8°F)
Dew Pt: 11.0°C (~ 51.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (~ 0.35 in/hr)

One thing I noticed Other flights have been below 1000ft, these have been around 2500ft, Is it because it is night?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BoynSea:
319. Patrap 12:57 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

Good to see you again.


Good to be back.


Like a good saddle in Spring.

G'evening to yas..too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I'm there.... we are of men not mice


Steinbeck, I'm impressed!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
326. IKE
1007.8 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
319. Patrap 12:57 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

Good to see you again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 375 - 325

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
71 °F
Overcast