Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The level of drama on this blog is just plain stupid. If you don't like Ike, ignore and move on. Don't make a big deal about it.
Ted, I'm convinced 2/3 of the drama on Friday nights in particular is because bloggers are bored.....

And with that, given my only wx contribution of the night was ONE img of Richard, I think I will go off and play Fate for a while....

Later all... don't knife each other to death or anything like that while I'm gone; wait till I get back so I can make popcorn and watch....

l8r!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
TS Richard Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
i guess i will be back in the morning. it looks like dart throwers, downcasters, and kids are ruling this blog right now.

Running away because people disagree with you? Who is the kid? yea that is what I thought.
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Is Richard going to put on the same ol same ol show all night? all this fire Red convection and no Ummphh!
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i guess i will be back in the morning. it looks like dart throwers, downcasters, and kids are ruling this blog right now.

i can tell the trolls and kids are playing games cuz there are a ton of names that are new and people are saying unintelligible things so anyhow have fun. i will be back when the meteorologists return in the morning
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
Quoting caneswatch:


Don't make a great song remind you of this place. lol


LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The level of drama on this blog is just plain stupid. If you don't like Ike, ignore and move on. Don't make a big deal about it.


Good advice. I hate enablers as much as trolls.
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



thats total bulls*it. a cat 1 will tear shingles off and rip your siding clean off.

not trying to be rude but it is obvious you don't know what you are talking about.

I dunno man I have been through 4 Cat ones and have not had to replace my shingles on my roof for any of them. Siding is still on as well. Only issue really was power and some trees down thanks to high water table and saturated ground mixed with 12 inches of rain.
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A Landfalling Cyclone with a tightly wound core and a HUGE feeder band.

West Pacific Floater
Megi

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting washingtonian115:
Baha everytime I make a post I don't exspect a anwser.And I love how I'm in my own little corner on the blog.(Like the quite kid in class.)And I don't need attention like some others on here.
DC115,

I hope u didn't think I meant u with all those things.... ur post was just a cool jump-off point. If anything, u have been a great addition this year; u came in, made urself a part of the blog. If anything, u've done most if not all of the positive things I was recommending in that post. And even after 5 years this weekend, I admit freely that I'm still quite excited when somebody in the blog actually acknowledges a post of mine as contributing to the wx discussion. [For me, the "shoot the breeze" stuff is the easy part lol].

I think this blog is a cool place, but if u want to move away from lurking, it's like getting into the ocean from the beach.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
Quoting Patrap:
Now Ill never look at this tune the same again.

Ill be seeing Adjusters and and Wishcaster's when I hear it fer-ever..now.

The Doors - Riders on the Storm

Into this Blog were thrown...yeahhhhhhhh









Don't make a great song remind you of this place. lol
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The level of drama on this blog is just plain stupid. If you don't like Ike, ignore and move on. Don't make a big deal about it.
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Quoting BoynSea:

398. BahaHurican 1:33 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

I think Richard will develop, but I also think it will go inland and weaken quite a but. I'm worried about when he pops back out over water in the GOM.


Don't worry too much, shear and lower water temps should keep it from regaining much strength. If it hits the US, it shouldn't have much left in the way of wind, but could bring a lot of rain to some places.
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Quoting capeflorida:

LOL. Somehow I felt REALLY old after i posted.


Thanks, we are obviously from the same generation. Actually remember seeing her last performance on the Jimmy Durante Show.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting IKE:
They need instant replay in MLB. Get with the times.


HAHAHA...now thats good!
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Sorry, I think you are all oxygen thieves. You may be a true believer, however I think there should be a open season every year on attorneys. You destroy far more than you create. Sorry. IMO.


Point proven.

Thank you.

A true believer? In what? It is a profession. I worked hard to get here. Along the way I have worn many hats. I have a family, I do my best. I have been at it for a long time and I have seen all sides. I would walk away tomorrow if I could, because it is often a profession where you see the worst in people, and the worst in what they experience in life.

However, when I can help, and it is warranted, I do. There are just as many greedy people out there who created the system as there are those that work within the system....probably more in reality. Don't forget that. No lawsuits, no need for attorneys.
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Now Ill never look at this tune the same again.

Ill be seeing Adjusters and and Wishcaster's when I hear it fer-ever..now.

The Doors - Riders on the Storm

Into this Blog were thrown...yeahhhhhhhh







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
406. IKE
They need instant replay in MLB. Get with the times.

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Quoting HurricaneRichard:
Hey Grotha, do you really live in a retirement home?


No, not yet!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467

398. BahaHurican 1:33 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

I think Richard will develop, but I also think it will go inland and weaken quite a but. I'm worried about when he pops back out over water in the GOM.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Ike, hurricanes and tropical systems are not all death and destruction. A good part of Florida's precipitation is derived normally from tropical systems. Hurricanes in Florida have been occurring since earth began. There are many benefits in tropical storms and more deaths occur from other causes than tropical storms. Only when you reach a major category do you see structural damage occurring. I have been through a number of storms since moving to Florida in 1961. I can only remember one which caused death close to me and that was a Cat 4 hurcn Charley in a very small area. This just my opinion but as we know hurricanes are important transporters of heat and are critical to the survival of our planet.






thats total bulls*it. a cat 1 will tear shingles off and rip your siding clean off.

not trying to be rude but it is obvious you don't know what you are talking about.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, that certainly put a banana in my hat!! Good one, cape!

LOL. Somehow I felt REALLY old after i posted.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm watch it.. he fixed the weather machine.. and he knows where you are.
u mean.... he's the reason we've been having all this rainy weird wx???? I need to talk to that guy....


Quoting BoynSea:
I have to say that Igor had me sweating. To strong. too close. We got the very outer windfield; I recorded a max of 36 mph as Igor passed.
I do clearly recall sitting hear a couple of nights, CRS and me, chanting "turn, Turn, TURN!".... lol I have to admit my faith in NHC was beginning to wear a bit thin.... and it's been a while since we've had a major hurricane come up the island chain... would NOT have been pretty....

Richard, soon to be hurricane?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
Quoting capeflorida:

Carmen?


Wow, that certainly put a banana in my hat!! Good one, cape!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting GoofOff:


I don't think people get upset with you due to your profession. I have two cousins who are attorneys. You just seem to like to cause arguments. One of my cousins told me to always remember that 50% of all lawyers and doctors graduated in the bottom half of their class. It doesn't make them anything special. There are many members who have been on this blog for a long time and most value their insight and explanations. You don't need to read them if they upset you.


Funny, you don't sound like a GoofOff!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
cat 1 can do structural damage to mobile homes,and cat2 winds to houses(wood framed)...it DOES NOT take a cat 3 to cause alot of structural damage,dont know where you got that from,ask the people in se fl what wilma did!!!
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Quoting Grothar:
I think we should all be mirandized before coming on this blog.

Carmen?
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Baha everytime I make a post I don't exspect a anwser.And I love how I'm in my own little corner on the blog.(Like the quite kid in class.)And I don't need attention like some others on here.
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391. xcool
haha .im doing very good thanks
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


Oh, so I am to blame for people finally having enough of the downer and calling Ike out, huh?

My few little comments have caused the entire blog to implode. Wow, I am impressed. I wish I had such an influence over the federal judiciary.

Please.

Ike has been under so many people's skin it is comical. I have an inbox full of PMs from people who feel the same way. So, if it is my fault that people decided to voice their opinion, I am not ashamed. However, I think you are making an unfounded and absurd statement.

Also, I don't wring my hands over the threat of storms striking land and I don't pretend to be something I am not.

However, I am not a troll. I don't come here to rile people up. I don't incite them or rub their noses in it when things don't go the way they wish. I come here to listen to some interesting perspectives and once in a while post a thought. I don't make predictions, I don't claim to be a met, or have a blog where I track storms. For the most part, I just read.

However, it is clear that the only reason people get pissed off at me is because I am an attorney and people in this country harbor a strong dislike for attorneys. There are also plenty of insurance adjusters, contractors, construction workers, and others in the home damage/reconstruction field that are on this board. They are on here for the same reasons I am on here, whether they admit it or not.





I don't think people get upset with you due to your profession. I have two cousins who are attorneys. You just seem to like to cause arguments. One of my cousins told me to always remember that 50% of all lawyers and doctors graduated in the bottom half of their class. It doesn't make them anything special. There are many members who have been on this blog for a long time and most value their insight and explanations. You don't need to read them if they upset you.
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I think we should all be mirandized before coming on this blog.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
353

URNT12 KNHC 230113

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010

A. 23/00:49:00Z

B. 15 deg 45 min N

082 deg 12 min W

C. 925 mb 754 m

D. 37 kt

E. 040 deg 67 nm

F. 116 deg 36 kt

G. 042 deg 83 nm

H. EXTRAP 1008 mb

I. 21 C / 761 m

J. 22 C / 762 m

K. 16 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134 / 9

O. 0.02 / 8 nm

P. AF306 0619A RICHARD OB 10

MAX FL WIND 40 KT NE QUAD 00:06:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

MAX FL TEMP 22 C 053 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR

LARGE LIGHT AND VAR WIND CENTER

;
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53307
I should add a disclaimer...if you have an old roof that should have been replaced you could sustain structural damage in a minimal hurricane.


Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Really? I'd have to disagree.
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Quoting xcool:
hmm


Anybody ever tell you that you talk too much??? You just go on and on. And what is it with that extra m, cloggin up the blog??? (How you doing xcool?)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Very true. Only of which a fraction I see. I work like a dog and I take pride in the fact that I can actually help people, because of the position in which I am placed.

Tell me, who is worse....the attorney who works for billables, or the one who takes 40% of what your lawsuit yields?

If the attorney truly cares? then the attorney, if he's a money hawk then shoot him on the spot and well
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Quoting reedzone:
BEAUTIFUL outflow!!

...sloppy and weak at the moment imo,stick by my forecast from earlier skim the ne coast of honduras and come very close to cozumel,mx as almost a major
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Only when you reach a major category do you see structural damage occurring.


Really? I'd have to disagree.
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Quoting IKE:


LOL..."powerful"?

I'll see what I can do for you!
Thanks :)
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 23:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 23:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°46'N 82°16'W (15.7667N 82.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 251 miles (405 km) to the SSW (193°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 748m (2,454ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the N (354°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 33kts (From the E at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the north quadrant at 22:42:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
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379. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
One other thing, since you can wish hurricanes away from the panhandle can you please assist in wishing them away from Grand Cayman. Your help will be greatly appreciated. It would be nice if it could be done but not even you can do that as powerful as you may be.


LOL..."powerful"?

I'll see what I can do for you!
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

i GIVE UP,
I'M GOING TO AN EARTHQUAKE BLOG!!!
that sounds all right i even have your opening line


whats shaking out there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53307
anyone want the Yankees to lose? and richard to like be tricky?
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Oops.. of course, I meant Hurricane Earl.
It was suppose to curve Northward, but kept tracking West without the curve.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


No he's working for billable hours. get a clue.


Very true. Only of which a fraction I see. I work like a dog and I take pride in the fact that I can actually help people, because of the position in which I am placed.

Tell me, who is worse....the attorney who works for billables, or the one who takes 40% of what your lawsuit yields?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.