Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Stop insulting people with a minor misunderstanding. Some have already apologized and they now know that it means four Category 1 hurricanes.


He may not have seen them. After you post, unless you go back to where you left, you are likely to miss some posts.
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hey Patrap does the weather comments counter have a 87,000 limit.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Stop insulting people with a minor misunderstanding. Some have already apologized and they now know that it means four Category 1 hurricanes.

Yes I do appreciate the one who apoligized and mistakes happen. I make them all the time. i also did not insult that person, I only insulted the dude who called me a troll and told everyone to ignore me.
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Quoting Patrap:
Vintage Doors is awesome too.



Ever heard of Celebration of the Lizard?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Okay, you think I'm lying that is your problem.

Obviously, VA Beach must not have as much trees as Chesapeake county does.. right next door. A tree fell during the storm, these trees were about ~30-40 years old and the house my family owned musta been around since the late 60s, took out the fence, the neighbors garage and on the way down took some of my roof with it.

Another tree during part of the storm hit and took out a bunch of power lines a few roads down. Lost power for a week, the guys who came out to fix it had a slow reaction 'cause we weren't the only ones who didn't have this problem.

Was no cake walk.

That is pretty much what I said if you read what I wrote. I said no shingles lost or siding lost but had trees down and power outages. I said most of the tress fell because of the high water table. You can dig about 6 inches into the ground there and hit water. Add the 12 inches of rain, 20kts of wind woudl blow down a small tree. 60kts and larger ones fall. I had 6 30 foot trees fall in my backyard, roots and all because the ground was so soft. It was not the wind, it was the amount of rain and a lot of the damage on the coast was from the surge. Hampton roads has the worst drainage.
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Quoting BoynSea:

398. BahaHurican 1:33 AM GMT on October 23, 2010

I think Richard will develop, but I also think it will go inland and weaken quite a but. I'm worried about when he pops back out over water in the GOM.
I don't think the Us will have to worry about Richard, but somewhere in The us might get some severe weather due to the big warm-up followed by the cold front coming down.
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A look back to Portlights 2008 Xmas Party for the Bridge City,Texas residents post Hurricane Ike.

We can make a difference in Haiti as well.


Thanks to all who made this possible 2 years ago.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128224
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

haha I did not say cat 4s. Can you read? I said four Cat 1s.

Stop insulting people with a minor misunderstanding. Some have already apologized and they now know that it means four Category 1 hurricanes.
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How often are the HH flying into Richard?
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yea dude I said four Cat 1 hurricanes. I have been through Gustav as well but I was in Southern Miss so we didnt get much from it. I know a Cat 4 would tear some roofs off and do some damage. Now a days a lot of buildings and houses on the coast are built to handle a Cat 1-2 hurricane. No matter what the wind speeds are, few places can withstand the strom surge. the water and flash flooding is more dangerous than the winds.



well., gustav was a small storm. if you were in miss. when it made landfall you were 200-300 miles from the eyewall. tell the people in south central louisiana that gustav was nothing. gustav tore up everything from the coast clear into baton rouge.

kk i will iggy u now. it has been nice knowing you :)
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
Quoting Patrap:
...,a Plus score too...!

Thanx scott



Your welcome
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



if i was you you may want to iggy that person. a low over texas has the potential to stop wind shear and sinking winds. i suspect he is a troll stirring up trouble because the last 3 entries have had nothing but reversal of truth involved. cat 4's doing no property damage, low over texas inhibit development....need i say more?

haha I did not say cat 4s. Can you read? I said four Cat 1s.
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Tracko--

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128224
Yankees s**k!

Hurricane David 1979
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...,a Plus score too...!

Thanx scott



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128224
Quoting gordydunnot:
Speaking of the Jimmy Durante show remember this. Everyone wants to get in on the act. Chased of the blog last night so I'll try again how is our 40mph+ T.S. doing tonight. I think it was supposed to be at least a Cat 1 by now.


Wasn't suppose to be a Category 1 before tomorrow the other day.
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Quoting txjac:
Post 429, Haboobsaresweet (whenever I type your handle I feel like I'm being naughty)

Anyway, you mention that the low over texas will inhibit development ... I can understand why a hight would guide or steer activity but could you explain why a low would inhibit?

Thanks



if i was you you may want to iggy that person. a low over texas has the potential to stop wind shear and sinking winds. i suspect he is a troll stirring up trouble because the last 3 entries have had nothing but reversal of truth involved. cat 4's doing no property damage, low over texas inhibit development....need i say more?
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


131-155 mph sustained and no damage anywhere exc. trees down? Really?

Yea dude I said four Cat 1 hurricanes. I have been through Gustav as well but I was in Southern Miss so we didnt get much from it. I know a Cat 4 would tear some roofs off and do some damage. Now a days a lot of buildings and houses on the coast are built to handle a Cat 1-2 hurricane. No matter what the wind speeds are, few places can withstand the strom surge. the water and flash flooding is more dangerous than the winds.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He didn't say Cat 4 he said 4 Cat 1's.


Yeah, thanx, I apologized for my error.
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Speaking of the Jimmy Durante show remember this. Everyone wants to get in on the act. Chased of the blog last night so I'll try again how is our 40mph+ T.S. doing tonight. I think it was supposed to be at least a Cat 1 by now.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Lies...I was in Va Beach for Isaebel, had no damager just flooding and power loss as I said. it was barely a cat 1 not a cat 2 by the time it reach VA. There was only one Ob up my Hampton that hit 81kts (gust) while the rest of the Va saw sustain winds from 50-65mph (really a TS not even cat 1 accept for the higher winds over the water on the east side before landfall).


Okay, you think I'm lying that is your problem.

Obviously, VA Beach must not have as much trees as Chesapeake county does.. right next door. A tree fell during the storm, these trees were about ~30-40 years old and the house my family owned musta been around since the late 60s, took out the fence, the neighbors garage and on the way down took some of my roof with it.

Another tree during part of the storm hit and took out a bunch of power lines a few roads down. Lost power for a week, the guys who came out to fix it had a slow reaction 'cause we weren't the only ones who didn't have this problem.

Was no cake walk.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128224
Quoting Patrap:
As to Cat Numbers..they aint the best for well..impact I always say.

The Saffie-Simpson Scale was designed for wind Loading on structures only..and dont really denote individual impact overall very well.

Its the Impact that counts every time,,and how long it occurs in a given Location.

Saw a Saffir-Simpson Scale Cat3-4 depending on the Landfall debates. with 28-30 ft Storm.

And a cat 2 like mentioned here a few back,IKE only 2 years ago in Texas that Pushed a 20 ft Surge and across a wide Coastal region and inland some miles.


Overall,,the SSS needs to be improved on.



Best advice..when told to get,

..do it.

And have a plan for the Season as well.




+100
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Vintage Doors is awesome too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128224
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


131-155 mph sustained and no damage anywhere exc. trees down? Really?
He didn't say Cat 4 he said 4 Cat 1's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As to Cat Numbers..they aint the best for well..impact I always say.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale was designed for wind Loading on structures only..and dont really denote individual impact overall very well.

Its the Impact that counts every time,,and how long it occurs in a given Location.

Saw a Saffir-Simpson Scale Cat3-4 depending on the Landfall debates. with 28-30 ft Storm.

And a cat 2 like mentioned here a few back,IKE only 2 years ago in Texas that Pushed a 20 ft Surge and across a wide Coastal region and inland some miles.


Overall,,the SSS needs to be improved on.



Best advice..when told to get,

..do it.

And have a plan for the Season as well.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128224
Bring on the Rain!
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Just to clarify i do understand Virginia had a lot of damage from Isabel but most of it was due to flooding. Most damage from hurricanes is from the surge and local river flooding from excess rainfall. Hence why most of the damage is within the first 5-10 miles of shore.
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GO RANGERS!!!!!!! DANG CLOUD
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Quoting txjac:
Post 429, Haboobsaresweet (whenever I type your handle I feel like I'm being naughty)

Anyway, you mention that the low over texas will inhibit development ... I can understand why a hight would guide or steer activity but could you explain why a low would inhibit?

Thanks

more turbulent air increasing shear and sucking away energy.
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Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF...

If we can get a heavy mist on the Dust, I will be happy.
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442. txjac
Post 429, Haboobsaresweet (whenever I type your handle I feel like I'm being naughty)

Anyway, you mention that the low over texas will inhibit development ... I can understand why a hight would guide or steer activity but could you explain why a low would inhibit?

Thanks
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2510
Things are starting to get really interesting :)

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Hey, this link has the original video of the Riders.....
Link
Quoting Patrap:
Now Ill never look at this tune the same again.

Ill be seeing Adjusters and and Wishcaster's when I hear it fer-ever..now.

The Doors - Riders on the Storm

Into this Blog were thrown...yeahhhhhhhh







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Quoting 954FtLCane:
OK, poll.. how good had the HNC done this year on 305 days forcasts scenarios
A) very good 90-100% thus far
B) semi good 60-80 % of the time they're getting it
C) 50/50
D) WTF, are they on crack 10/13% of the time
E) 0%
F) Who is the NHC? I googled and found this site by mistake, what is this question?
E) well it's E so choose your answer
Every time I take one of these, I bring my GPA down. So, Im with Patrap.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Don't worry too much, shear and lower water temps should keep it from regaining much strength. If it hits the US, it shouldn't have much left in the way of wind, but could bring a lot of rain to some places.


Not too worried for me, I'm East of Florida. But anything that develops in the Gulf IS going to hit land somewhere. And this is a strange season....two AOI's (however futile) from the Cape Verdes in late October?
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Looks like after so many treats this year we will finally have to run for shelter this thing is blowing up and doc says it has a chace of atainig catagory 3 strenght
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Quoting scott39:
4 Cat1s


Sorry, I misread. But cat1's do cause damage. Fran hit us pretty hard here in central NC, w/ a ~72 mph gust.
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435. IKE
5 day QPF...

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Quoting Patrap:


LOL


Into this house we're born, into this world we're thrown........
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I got hit by a Category 2 in VA during the '03 season, Isabel. Lost power for a week, no gas, food rotted, couldn't clean clothing, wasn't a fun experience something I won't forget.

Ike hit as a 2 in Galveston, 30 billion dollars in damage.. only outmatched by A and K. Dolly hit as a 2 also in Texas, 2 billion in damages. Alex hit as a 2 in Mexico, ~2 billion in damages.

Not the number that matters, what matters is the amount of punch it brings.

Lies...I was in Va Beach for Isaebel, had no damager just flooding and power loss as I said. it was barely a cat 1 not a cat 2 by the time it reach VA. There was only one Ob up my Hampton that hit 81kts (gust) while the rest of the Va saw sustain winds from 50-65mph (really a TS not even cat 1 accept for the higher winds over the water on the east side before landfall).
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I never Quiz on a Friday.

Specially after 5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128224
OK, poll.. how good had the HNC done this year on 3 to 5 day forcast scenarios
A) very good 90-100% thus far
B) semi good 60-80 % of the time they're getting it
C) 50/50
D) WTF, are they on crack 10/13% of the time
E) 0%
F) Who is the NHC? I googled and found this site by mistake, what is this question?
E) well it's E so choose your answer
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


131-155 mph sustained and no damage anywhere exc. trees down? Really?
4 Cat1s
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The high sitting on the east coast is going to continue to steer richard west...it is going to be rocked byt he land in the Yuc. Then it will start to interact with a texas low which will not allow it to redevelop. Gulf waters still warm enough but have already started to cool quite a bit. Buoys showing under 80F.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I dunno man I have been through 4 Cat ones and have not had to replace my shingles on my roof for any of them. Siding is still on as well. Only issue really was power and some trees down thanks to high water table and saturated ground mixed with 12 inches of rain.


I got hit by a Category 2 in VA during the '03 season, Isabel. Lost power for a week, no gas, food rotted, couldn't clean clothing, wasn't a fun experience something I won't forget.

Ike hit as a 2 in Galveston, 30 billion dollars in damage.. only outmatched by A and K. Dolly hit as a 2 also in Texas, 2 billion in damages. Alex hit as a 2 in Mexico, ~2 billion in damages.

Not the number that matters, what matters is the amount of punch it brings.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I dunno man I have been through 4 Cat ones and have not had to replace my shingles on my roof for any of them. Siding is still on as well. Only issue really was power and some trees down thanks to high water table and saturated ground mixed with 12 inches of rain.


131-155 mph sustained and no damage anywhere exc. trees down? Really?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The level of drama on this blog is just plain stupid. If you don't like Ike, ignore and move on. Don't make a big deal about it.
Ted, I'm convinced 2/3 of the drama on Friday nights in particular is because bloggers are bored.....

And with that, given my only wx contribution of the night was ONE img of Richard, I think I will go off and play Fate for a while....

Later all... don't knife each other to death or anything like that while I'm gone; wait till I get back so I can make popcorn and watch....

l8r!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22071

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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