Tropical Storm Richard slowly intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:31 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard is here, the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Richard's formation puts 2010 in 6th place for the greatest number of named storms in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005 (28 named storms), 1933 (21 named storms), 1995 (19 named storms), 1887 (19 named storms), and 1969 (18 named storms) had more.

We won't have another hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard until 8pm tonight, so we will have to rely on satellite intensity estimates until then. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is on Richard's weak side about 100 miles from the heaviest thunderstorms. Winds at the buoy were just 18 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard is steadily organizing, with several curved spiral bands forming on the storm's south and east sides. The storm is bringing very heavy rain to Jamaica. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of Richard, and the southwesterly upper-level winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C, and Richard will begin taking advantage of these warm waters now that the shear is falling.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Monday morning. As the storm moves westwards on Friday, it will position itself beneath an upper-level high pressure system, which will aid the storm's upper-level outflow. With water temperatures a very warm 29°C and warm waters extending to great depth, Richard should be able to attain at least Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. NHC is currently giving Richard a 11% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 30%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will steadily weaken.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs, and don't help illuminate what the long-range fate of Richard might be. Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for Richard. Most of the models favor a southerly, then southwesterly path at 5mph or less over the next two days. This may bring the center of Richard very close to or over the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models. These models then show Richard dissipating over Central America. A much different solution is offered by the ECMWF, HWRF and GFDL models, which foresee less of a southerly motion for Richard over the next two days, resulting in the storm missing the north coast of Honduras by one hundred miles or more. These models take Richard to the northwest across the tip of the Yucatan (GFDL and ECMWF models) or western tip of Cuba (HWRF model) on Sunday or Monday. The HWRF and GFDL models predict Richard will be a threat to the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. NHC takes the reasonable approach of predicting a path somewhere between these two extremes, with Richard crossing the Yucatan between Cozumel and the Belize/Mexico border. Residents of northern Honduras should anticipate the possibility that Richard will pass very close or strike Honduras on Saturday or Sunday. Very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches are possible over the the weekend in coastal Honduras beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 46%. Cozumel, Mexico is given a 42% chance, Key West a 6% chance, and Ft. Myers a 3% chance.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday (Invest 90L) has a modest amount of spin and some growing thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 5 - 15 knots, and the waters are still warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. By Sunday, 90L will encounter high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Typhoon Megi takes aim at China
Typhoon Megi continues it slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday morning on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi has maintained strength as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds today, despite rising wind shear (now a moderate 10 - 20 knots) and cooling sea surface temperatures. Megi is moving slow enough and is large and powerful enough that it is probably upwelling cold water from the depths to the surface faster than it can move away, and these upwelling cool waters are keeping Megi from being a stronger storm. Wind shear will increase dramatically to 20 - 40 knots on Friday as the typhoon makes its final approach to the coast of China, and this shear should be high enough to reduce Megi to Category 1 status before landfall. Megi will still be a very large and powerful storm capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. However, heavy rain will likely be the storm's main threat, since it is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China near Taiwan, as seen on China's radar composite, as well as Taiwan radar.

The clean-up continues in the Philippines from Megi, which hit northern Luzon island on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and 19 deaths are being blamed on the storm. Considering most major typhoon that have hit the Philippine in recent year have killed hundreds and sometimes thousands of people, the low death toll from Megi is a testament to the excellent efforts by officials in the Philippines to get people out of harm's way in advance of the storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall rate for Megi as observed by the TRMM polar orbiting satellite at 10:01am EDT October 21, 2010. Heavy rains in excess of 0.8" per hour (yellow colors) were present in Megi's eyewall and spiral bands. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR2:


Richard doesnt have any black.


Richard disagrees.
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312. JLPR2
Ah! At 22:15z the CATl low lost its black dot too. XD
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Quoting Grothar:


I wouldn't say just yet. After all, tomorrow is another day! I think we might see a bigger shift if he gets a little stronger.
I agree and since he is further south and in open water I have a feeling he will soon ramp up pretty good.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would say based on the ConCensus of all the Models it will cross the Yucatan and move toward the BOC. That is the current Concensus of models. I know this will probably change by this time tomorrow. But, this is the current Concensus from what i can see.


i had a question earlier from a friend of mine in Florida and they asked could Tampa get hit? any thoughts guys?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Kind of small as well. But, let's see how things look in 24 hours. Not that I'm predicting anything. Just watch. Hopefully it will stay small, and weak.

Wishful thinking, remember he's just another Dick, so I doubt it very much!
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I would say based on the ConCensus of all the Models it will cross the Yucatan and move toward the BOC. That is the current Concensus of models. I know this will probably change by this time tomorrow. But, this is the current Concensus from what i can see.
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Quoting Grothar:


I wouldn't say just yet. After all, tomorrow is another day! I think we might see a bigger shift if he gets a little stronger.


very true
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304. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

lol says 2145 on mine


That's the one, ahh I hate SSD images, they show you a 21z and then go back to 20z. :\

I'm seeing 20z again. >:(
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Looks like Florida is in a little better shape than earlier runs.


I wouldn't say just yet. After all, tomorrow is another day! I think we might see a bigger shift if he gets a little stronger.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Looks like Florida is in a little better shape than earlier runs.


could be
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the 18Z GFS is even farther south
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299. JLPR2
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


that's a 20z photo I'm looking at a 21z image.
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I wonder why the Yackeers ain't selling out their baseball games in NY.......LOL...NICE FANS....

The Canadaian Models


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297. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yes so that thing needs a circle on it!!!! 2 days ago the NHC had a yellow circle with this system but dropped it after convection diminished. The NHC also said condition would become more favorable...


As of now wind shear isn't favorable but it isn't destroying it since the convection is moving closer and closer to the center, I guess it is dropping and it gets more favorable further west.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey! Have you ever known me to be out of control? Have you seen the latest models?




Looks like Florida is in a little better shape than earlier runs.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You should look at his floater.
It did have but by the time I posted the image it was gone. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
Quoting TampaSpin:


they all agree its going some were but were Yucatan? Cuba? Florida? were?
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Quoting JLPR2:


Richard doesnt have any black.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
Quoting JLPR2:


Richard doesnt have any black.

You should look at his floater.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Only if you behave yourself.


Hey! Have you ever known me to be out of control? Have you seen the latest models?


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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Tonight should be the night. That dry air isn't going to last forever as that trough will be old news soon. Can't say it'll intensify at the same degree as Paula did but I would not be surprised to wake up to a minimal hurricane tomorrow in the A.M.

However, that won't be it. Future bouts of RI could also be in store down the road as well before it gets close to the Yucatan.


I agree.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Ahh ok, lol.

Are you up to date now?, lol.
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Quoting JLPR2:


This is a little funny but the CATL low's convection is stronger than Richard's. XD

And it is closing in on the center.


Yes so that thing needs a circle on it!!!! 2 days ago the NHC had a yellow circle with this system but dropped it after convection diminished. The NHC also said condition would become more favorable...
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Quoting Surfcropper:
Richard is weak
Kind of small as well. But, let's see how things look in 24 hours. Not that I'm predicting anything. Just watch. Hopefully it will stay small, and weak.
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284. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
wouldnt be surpised if there isnt no circle outthere an earlier graphic said the low was dissapating


It's been dissipating for a day or two. LOL!
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283. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
271:looks the same i see a tiny speck of black in richard


Richard doesnt have any black.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


YELLOW CIRCLE AT 8


maybe !!!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

We weren't talking about Richard at the time, it was about a Rare Late October CV Storm being compared to 90L. It is part of the blog entry and a threat to develop.

Ahh ok, lol.
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This is the NOGAPS models......which have performed very well this year after a few runs....lets see if this changes. The NOGAPS has performed very well this year.


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Quoting Grothar:


Have any others? You know, animated ones.


Only if you behave yourself.
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Quoting MrstormX:
No offense (as I haven't been following this conversation) but what does a deadly hurricane that happened in the 1700's have to do with TS Richard? Anything that happened in the 1700s hardly has any reliable track or strength information...

We weren't talking about Richard at the time, it was about a Rare Late October CV Storm being compared to 90L. It is part of the blog entry and a threat to develop.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
looks like low in the central atlantic is getting better organized as shear appears diminishing.


YELLOW CIRCLE AT 8
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271. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
looks like low in the central atlantic is getting better organized as shear appears diminishing.


This is a little funny but the CATL low's convection is stronger than Richard's. XD

And it is closing in on the center.
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Quoting reedzone:


Some convective banding starting to pop up near the COC, I think this gets going tonight.
Agreed. It will be a slow process at first but by tomorrow night quicker intensification will occur.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Have any others? You know, animated ones.
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Quoting reedzone:


Some convective banding starting to pop up near the COC, I think this gets going tonight.


Even though dry air is still pounding against it from the west, Richard is pounding back just as strong!
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No offense (as I haven't been following this conversation) but what does a deadly hurricane that happened in the 1700's have to do with TS Richard? Anything that happened in the 1700s hardly has any reliable track or strength information...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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