Tropical Storm Richard slowly intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:31 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard is here, the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Richard's formation puts 2010 in 6th place for the greatest number of named storms in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005 (28 named storms), 1933 (21 named storms), 1995 (19 named storms), 1887 (19 named storms), and 1969 (18 named storms) had more.

We won't have another hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard until 8pm tonight, so we will have to rely on satellite intensity estimates until then. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is on Richard's weak side about 100 miles from the heaviest thunderstorms. Winds at the buoy were just 18 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard is steadily organizing, with several curved spiral bands forming on the storm's south and east sides. The storm is bringing very heavy rain to Jamaica. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of Richard, and the southwesterly upper-level winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C, and Richard will begin taking advantage of these warm waters now that the shear is falling.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Monday morning. As the storm moves westwards on Friday, it will position itself beneath an upper-level high pressure system, which will aid the storm's upper-level outflow. With water temperatures a very warm 29°C and warm waters extending to great depth, Richard should be able to attain at least Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. NHC is currently giving Richard a 11% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 30%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will steadily weaken.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs, and don't help illuminate what the long-range fate of Richard might be. Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for Richard. Most of the models favor a southerly, then southwesterly path at 5mph or less over the next two days. This may bring the center of Richard very close to or over the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models. These models then show Richard dissipating over Central America. A much different solution is offered by the ECMWF, HWRF and GFDL models, which foresee less of a southerly motion for Richard over the next two days, resulting in the storm missing the north coast of Honduras by one hundred miles or more. These models take Richard to the northwest across the tip of the Yucatan (GFDL and ECMWF models) or western tip of Cuba (HWRF model) on Sunday or Monday. The HWRF and GFDL models predict Richard will be a threat to the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. NHC takes the reasonable approach of predicting a path somewhere between these two extremes, with Richard crossing the Yucatan between Cozumel and the Belize/Mexico border. Residents of northern Honduras should anticipate the possibility that Richard will pass very close or strike Honduras on Saturday or Sunday. Very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches are possible over the the weekend in coastal Honduras beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 46%. Cozumel, Mexico is given a 42% chance, Key West a 6% chance, and Ft. Myers a 3% chance.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday (Invest 90L) has a modest amount of spin and some growing thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 5 - 15 knots, and the waters are still warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. By Sunday, 90L will encounter high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Typhoon Megi takes aim at China
Typhoon Megi continues it slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday morning on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi has maintained strength as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds today, despite rising wind shear (now a moderate 10 - 20 knots) and cooling sea surface temperatures. Megi is moving slow enough and is large and powerful enough that it is probably upwelling cold water from the depths to the surface faster than it can move away, and these upwelling cool waters are keeping Megi from being a stronger storm. Wind shear will increase dramatically to 20 - 40 knots on Friday as the typhoon makes its final approach to the coast of China, and this shear should be high enough to reduce Megi to Category 1 status before landfall. Megi will still be a very large and powerful storm capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. However, heavy rain will likely be the storm's main threat, since it is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China near Taiwan, as seen on China's radar composite, as well as Taiwan radar.

The clean-up continues in the Philippines from Megi, which hit northern Luzon island on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and 19 deaths are being blamed on the storm. Considering most major typhoon that have hit the Philippine in recent year have killed hundreds and sometimes thousands of people, the low death toll from Megi is a testament to the excellent efforts by officials in the Philippines to get people out of harm's way in advance of the storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall rate for Megi as observed by the TRMM polar orbiting satellite at 10:01am EDT October 21, 2010. Heavy rains in excess of 0.8" per hour (yellow colors) were present in Megi's eyewall and spiral bands. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:
Hmm perhaps organization is starting earlier then I thought, still on it's way to a 50-70 mph. Tropical Storm by morning.



Isn't it a tropical storm now! sorry, had to say it
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting reedzone:
Hmm perhaps organization is starting earlier then I thought, still on it's way to a 50-70 mph. Tropical Storm by morning.

Looks like a Gremlin.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Hmm perhaps organization is starting earlier then I thought, still on it's way to a 50-70 mph. Tropical Storm by morning.

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now stop that... your using common sense and logic.. you will confuse a few on here with that kind of talk.


What are ya'll talking bout? Tia lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting JLPR2:
A closer look at the CATl low that in my opinion deserves to be tagged as an invest.
Something really trying to spin up there and I haven't looked at it for a while but convection was great earlier.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
I thought these cones were supposed to be getting smaller this year? This ranks up there with one of the larger ones.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
758. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
9:00 AM JST October 22 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Minami Torisima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 21.0N 155.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots

---
*Not expected to become a tropical storm anymore.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44717
Quoting pottery:

Maybe there IS no other side....


Heavy, man, Heavy! Had the same thought once back in 1968, but that is another story.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Now stop that... your using common sense and logic.. you will confuse a few on here with that kind of talk.
I just calls 'em as I sees 'em. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
755. JLPR2
A closer look at the CATl low that in my opinion deserves to be tagged as an invest.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You really are a "Richard"!


Remember the old actress Susan Ball?
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Quoting pottery:

Maybe there IS no other side....


Thats far out man!!!!

What up lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting doorman79:


Sorry for your loss :(
Thank you, its been
hard , she had the mentality of a one year old, never did speak, but we all loved her like she was a Harvard Graduate!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
751. IKE
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KT AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SFMR ARE AROUND 35 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007
MB. BASED UPON THESE MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES REINFORCE THIS
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THEY SHOW THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LINEAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.

RECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS
MEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT
LATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE
CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE
SOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW
TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF AROUND 10 KT OF
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER RICHARD. THE
CYCLONE IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE U.
S. TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE PREVENTING
INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT. AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT OF THIS
EVOLUTION...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION
OF THE CYCLONE WITH LAND WHICH COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LGEM/MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.9N 80.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.8N 81.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 81.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 82.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 16.5N 84.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 87.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 89.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0000Z 21.5N 89.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
:) For my .02 worth, Ike is entitled to his opinion just like everyone else. Whether anyone agrees with him or not it is his right and so far even though a lot call him a downcaster seems like he is right the majority of time.


Now stop that... your using common sense and logic.. you will confuse a few on here with that kind of talk.
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749. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The wave is closer to becoming something than we think, look at this:



It is being badly underestimated.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting Orcasystems:


I really really wanted to post a sign from Bill Engvall.. but I stopped myself :)


Send me it in WU-mail then lol
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Climatologically speaking, a tropical cyclone in Richard's general position in October has Florida written all over it. If there is anything left of the system, it will very likely impact Florida at some point (could be remnant low/TD/TS, etc.). If it were September then the Northern Gulf Coast would be most likely, whereas in November, it would likely go east of Florida into the western Atlantic. I, for one, am just hoping for some rain and a breezy day followed by a REAL cold front with a couple nights in the 40s.


You may very well get your wish. All of what you described may well come to pass.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
Quoting jrweatherman:


He doesn't show the other side, he only shows one side.

Maybe there IS no other side....
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi Kman,

Do you think we have anything to fear here in the Caymans or just stay vigilant, this one bothers me. Today is sad day for my family, my sister passed away this morning, she had Downs Syndrome , had a stroke one week ago today, you know planning a funeral with impending bad weather can be stressful, anyways just wanted to get your opinion, at least least she fooled the docs they said she wouldn't live out her teens and she lived to be 54!
You have my sympathy. I think until Richard makes up his mind where he wants to go we definitely need to keep a close eye on him. He's not going anywhere in a hurry.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winds: 40 mph

Pressure: 1006 mb.

Name: Richard


the name doesnt change with every advisory?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You really are a "Richard"!


That's Richard Cabesa to you...
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Lol idk why IKE is taking so much crap tonight. IKE always shows the other side of the story. So many people on here hype up a storm saying rapid intensification is coming, etc, while IKE is always realistic, showing what else can happen when no one cares to talk about it. It may not be the fun thing, but its accurate.


Your comment is similar to my take on it.

The rarest form of commentary on almost any subject involving just about any type of phenomena is the truly, actually, factually objective form.

On this blog, Levi32 seems to come the closest to that from anyone I have seen here and who has a major or prominent presence here.

His analyses are about as close to being unbiased, objective and hugely informative as anything that anyone could possibly ask for, IMO.

Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
Quoting caneswatch:


If somebody doesn't sense sarcasm, then I don't know what to say........lol


I really really wanted to post a sign from Bill Engvall.. but I stopped myself :)
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Quoting Grothar:


What time does the 11:00PM advisory come out? Is there a TWO at 11 or is the TWO still at 2?
:) For my .02 worth, Ike is entitled to his opinion just like everyone else. Whether anyone agrees with him or not it is his right and so far even though a lot call him a downcaster seems like he is right the majority of time.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi Kman,

Do you think we have anything to fear here in the Caymans or just stay vigilant, this one bothers me. Today is sad day for my family, my sister passed away this morning, she had Downs Syndrome , had a stroke one week ago today, you know planning a funeral with impending bad weather can be stressful, anyways just wanted to get your opinion, at least least she fooled the docs they said she wouldn't live out her teens and she lived to be 54!


Sorry for your loss :(
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Winds: 40 mph

Pressure: 1006 mb.

Name: Richard
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


What time does the 11:00PM advisory come out? Is there a TWO at 11 or is the TWO still at 2?


If somebody doesn't sense sarcasm, then I don't know what to say........lol
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Quoting Grothar:


What time does the 11:00PM advisory come out? Is there a TWO at 11 or is the TWO still at 2?


You really are a "Richard"!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yea, I agree stormpetrol...he is irritating...it takes a lot of effort to keep that agenda going..We are here to enjoy the wx and it's storms..I think Ike should be on a blog where everyome is just like him. Should this storm strike S. Florida will Ike find a way to to show it never hit?


Quoting stormpetrol:

Ya man, I'm pissed, you're not evil, just deliberately aggravating and you know it!! Case closed!! Like they say the only one that squeals is the one that gets hit!!
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
734. IKE
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
0300 UTC FRI OCT 22 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 80.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 80.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 80.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.8N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 81.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 82.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.5N 89.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN


NNNN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Shear forecast "Very Favorable"

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F VF VF VF

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable
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Quoting Grothar:


This has been one strange season, even more than the blog. I do not believe they do have a good handle on it yet. Late season storms are much harder to predict because of the atmospheric dynamics are very capricious.

Remember, even though models are mechanical, they still rely on data which is by implication and inference leading to an incongruous conclusion.

Hope that cleared it up for you.


Clear as mud... (I do get it though!)
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

Changes are afoot in the steering as seen below. The high is starting to nose over the top of Richard which should start to nudge the storm to the SW initially then off to the West and WNW.

The one thing of interest is that the high is oriented more to the North and South than East to West. Unless this changes the influence of the high may be relatively short lived and the trough behind it will set in shortly thereafter.

Of note though is the fact that the high is quite intense and should not have much trouble dislodging Richard from his present stalled position.

Another intersting 24 hours ahead


Hi Kman,

Do you think we have anything to fear here in the Caymans or just stay vigilant, this one bothers me. Today is sad day for my family, my sister passed away this morning, she had Downs Syndrome , had a stroke one week ago today, you know planning a funeral with impending bad weather can be stressful, anyways just wanted to get your opinion, at least least she fooled the docs they said she wouldn't live out her teens and she lived to be 54!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Guess I’ll stay up for the 11:00 p.m. update. Not expecting to read anything earth-shattering. Until then, guess I’ll listen to some Shirley Bassey.


What time does the 11:00PM advisory come out? Is there a TWO at 11 or is the TWO still at 2?
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729. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The wave is closer to becoming something than we think, look at this:

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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I wasn't kidding, look at this. LOL



I know, anything is possible! I'm just trying to help Ike out! ;P Cyclones aren't done until they get sucked up and spit out!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
726. JLPR2
Buoy at 46W showing an increase in winds, but pressure isn't dropping, CATL low is still at 44W though.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting stormpetrol:
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Ike just enjoys taking a dump in the collective punchbowl. The only reason he isn't labeled a troll is because his methods are subtle. He doesn't make bold statements intended to rile people up, he just posts naked swirls, models full of empty oceans and any model or track that shifts away from the U.S. He is actually more effective with his techniques than a rabid troll because he is the ultimate downer.

Took the words right out my mouth, that is what I call excellent personality profiling ( hope you don't mind that word) cherry picks graphs, and comments by the "experts" and models just for sole purpose of aggravating others, not because
they wishcast or anything else, just basically to be contrary, rarely a comment or debate of personal opinion, to sum it all a cold individual( long time poster , well his tactics are very annoying) though I might given him credit for posting some interesting graphics, his motives are clear!!!


Thank you! I've said this since I've been here and got BASHed for calling him out. I'm by no means a wishcaster, but I also don't turn blind eyes to things that could get someone killed
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SATCON says 44 kts

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2010102118
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 1002 hPa MSW = 44 kt
ADT: 999 hPa 47 kt Scene: CRVBD
CIMSS AMSU: 1003 hPa 44 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA
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LOL.... I like this one better, JK :-)
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721. IKE
Somebody give me a cheeseburger....Link


...............................................

Quoting stormpetrol:

Ya man, I'm pissed, you're not evil, just deliberately aggravating and you know it!! Case closed!! Like they say the only one that squeals is the one that gets hit!!


Not sure what your problem is...and don't care.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormpetrol:

Ya man, I'm pissed, you're not evil, just deliberately aggravating and you know it!! Case closed!! Like they say the only one that squeals is the one that gets hit!!


You really have to FOCUS
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NOTE: CIMSS isn't showing weakening. 55kts. Probably overstated, but still showing some signs of life.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2010 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 15:53:24 N Lon : 80:27:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -50.8C Cloud Region Temp : -50.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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For Ike!
Link

May the Rain come! (or not)
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
I think its near 16.2N 80.0W
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Quoting doorman79:


Ha Ha, and in the time I have been following weather, 1906 is about right! I know a weary eye must be kept, but I'm a half full (glass) kinda guy!


Hey, I wasn't kidding, look at this. LOL

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Quoting IKE:


What exactly are my motives? You make it sound like I'm some evil person on here.

Motives? Related to the weather? Your attitude is one of being pissed for whatever reason.

Ya man, I'm pissed, you're not evil, just deliberately aggravating and you know it!! Case closed!! Like they say the only one that squeals is the one that gets hit!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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