Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:11 PM GMT on October 20, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.

Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.

Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
the real reason people are abandoning this blog is because immature people literally attack if someone says something that the downcasters or upcasters dont like. regardless of the facts, information, feedback loops, variables, and trends immature jerks attack relentlessly, and it gets old. who wants to contribute for free when all they will get is abused.


i also suspect we have troll lurkers who are creating several, if not dozens, of bogus accounts. they do this to give the appearance that someone is being overwhelmed, when in reality it is one or two idiots posting bulls*it under 30 pseudo acct's.

if it doesn't stop i will quit coming in as well. the ignorance and stupidity in here is reaching new lows as each day passes. everyone is sick and tired of dumb asses who think that they should argue with mother nature, or that arguing with people is going to change the direction of the path of a given storm. its idiotic. it's getting old and you will notice that is why i am contributing less and less as time goes on.

yesterday was a perfect example. look how many people came into the blog that were supposedly from florida. almost every one of em argued about 99L, and they literally got pissed and abused others just because mother nature may be pointing a storm at florida.


way to go loser trolls and idiots. you are ruining a beautiful thing in here....but, after all, i am sure that's your intention isn't it....


Far from being a professional but, as a follower for some time i too don't come here often anymore. Not just because of the trolls but, because of the people that stay on here sun up to sun down and everytime something is posted they have to find something wrong and they get away of posting their graphics to lure them to their website where they sell stuff. Are you kidding and WU allows it!

I just updated my Website with all the stuff on TD19 soon to be Richard.

Tropical Update
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Quoting poknsnok:


cause the forecast trac is boring

AL 19 is meandering in the Caribbean Sea. I wonder what tricks she has up her sleve??
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Typhoon Megi
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Quoting katadman:
Blog died.


cause the forecast trac is boring
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
the real reason people are abandoning this blog is because immature people literally attack if someone says something that the downcasters or upcasters dont like. regardless of the facts, information, feedback loops, variables, and trends immature jerks attack relentlessly, and it gets old. who wants to contribute for free when all they will get is abused.


i also suspect we have troll lurkers who are creating several, if not dozens, of bogus accounts. they do this to give the appearance that someone is being overwhelmed, when in reality it is one or two idiots posting bulls*it under 30 pseudo acct's.

if it doesn't stop i will quit coming in as well. the ignorance and stupidity in here is reaching new lows as each day passes. everyone is sick and tired of dumb asses who think that they should argue with mother nature, or that arguing with people is going to change the direction of the path of a given storm. its idiotic. it's getting old and you will notice that is why i am contributing less and less as time goes on.

yesterday was a perfect example. look how many people came into the blog that were supposedly from florida. almost every one of em argued about 99L, and they literally got pissed and abused others just because mother nature may be pointing a storm at florida.


way to go loser trolls and idiots. you are ruining a beautiful thing in here....but, after all, i am sure that's your intention isn't it....

WU is not quite the same any more. However, I love the weather and will share my thoughts and views, as a non-professional weather follower of 42 years.

Here is the latest on TD 19 form NASA satellite at about 3:15 AM CDT today:


Link to the NASA satellite page :O) Link
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the real reason people are abandoning this blog is because immature people literally attack if someone says something that the downcasters or upcasters dont like. regardless of the facts, information, feedback loops, variables, and trends immature jerks attack relentlessly, and it gets old. who wants to contribute for free when all they will get is abused.


i also suspect we have troll lurkers who are creating several, if not dozens, of bogus accounts. they do this to give the appearance that someone is being overwhelmed, when in reality it is one or two idiots posting bulls*it under 30 pseudo acct's.

if it doesn't stop i will quit coming in as well. the ignorance and stupidity in here is reaching new lows as each day passes. everyone is sick and tired of dumb asses who think that they should argue with mother nature, or that arguing with people is going to change the direction of the path of a given storm. its idiotic. it's getting old and you will notice that is why i am contributing less and less as time goes on.

yesterday was a perfect example. look how many people came into the blog that were supposedly from florida. almost every one of em argued about 99L, and they literally got pissed and abused others just because mother nature may be pointing a storm at florida.


way to go loser trolls and idiots. you are ruining a beautiful thing in here....but, after all, i am sure that's your intention isn't it....
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819. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
15:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Wake Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.9N 158.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.6N 155.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
818. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
15:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.2N 142.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.5N 138.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
817. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (935 hPa) located at 19.9N 117.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.2N 118.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 22.9N 117.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.2N 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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816. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
next name is Giri
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815. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2010
8:30 AM IST October 21 2010
====================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Bay Of Bengal

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary, intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB04-2010 lays centered over the same area near 17.5N 91.5E, or about 350 km south-southwest of Sittwe Myanmar, 450 km south of Cox Bazar Bangladesh and 650 km southeast of Digha West Bengal.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm. It would move northwards initially and then north-northeastwards and cross north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts by tomorrow evening between Teknaf, Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu, Myanmar near Sittwe, Myanmar.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates banding pattern with further organization. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over east central Bay of Bengal between 14.0N and 20.0N east of 87.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate around the system. 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear shows no significant change around the system. Sea surface temperature (28-32C), and ocean heat content over central Bay of Bengal are favorable for intensification. However, ocean heat content is less than 100 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity at 850 hPA level and upper level divergence around the system is also favorable for intensification. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N at 200 hPa level. There is an anticyclonic circulation over central India to the northwest of the system center at mid-tropospheric level and is expected to influence the movement of the system towards the north northeast direction.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

9 HRS: 18.0N 91.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 18.5N 92.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 20.0N 93.0E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
57 HRS: 22.0N 94.0E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
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814. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
486
TCNA21 RJTD 210600 CCB
CCAA 21060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17199 11176 12436 260// 90106=
NAMELESS 18172 11424 14134 215// 93010=
NAMELESS 19199 11586 13294 215// 93016=

6:00 AM UTC October 21 2010

Typhoon 17 (1013) Megi
19.9N 117.6E
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Tropical Depression 18
17.2N 142.4E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Tropical Depression 19
19.9N 158.6E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
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Blog died.
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Quoting xcool:
NEW GFS TAKE 99L TO NOLA HMM


NOOOO....Mornin!!
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Quoting 786:
I can't wait to see the next forecast track I'm sure there will be some adjustment. He is ramping up quickly now


Just for you, 786, so you don't think we are all idiots.

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The reason that most of us Meteorologists don't post on these boards is cause no one really listens to us. We tell you straight out what's going to "probably" happen and if some peeps that have no degree think something otherwise, the Mets get bashed and others will join the bash on the Met... and that Usually happens if the Met says " This won't be upgraded or This won't hit land or where a certain person lives.

That is the problem with some of the people that post 50 times a day. They think they know what they are talking about and others do also cause they know how to post links or they post video's but really have no logical reason of why it may/may not happen.

It be easier if a Met comes on with a Met tag, but in reality, people will always try to challenge a person with a degree, especially if they want to be proven correct over the Meteorologist.
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809. 786
I can't wait to see the next forecast track I'm sure there will be some adjustment. He is ramping up quickly now
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
You have an excellent point, however, there have always been trolls. I can remember times in 2006 and 2007 that they were posting links to pornography and even actual pornographic images. I'm not easily offended but I remember a so-called doctor of meteorology who used anti-semitic slurs directed at one of the more meteorologically informed bloggers a year or two ago.

IMHO, the real reason that bloggers have abandoned this blog is the debate has become personal or harassing in some cases, and politics has been injected into science. It's just my opinion but if you could ask those that left why they did, I don't think their sole reason or main reason would be trolls.

There are some on here whose weather analysis with which I rarely agree yet on occasion they'll post something that I didn't notice or provide information about a factor with which I was unaware. In simpler terms, they educate me. Whether we agree or disagree with each others opinions, we can all learn from each other. At least, I do.


The situation with TD19 is similar Paula with a cold front descending south but in this case the front is much slower moving, and may stall. I've noticed over the years that these late season systems can take some crazy paths.


Nice summation, Lightening. There are a number of people with whom I disagree on many issues, but some are actually my best friends on the blog. We disagree, but have never been disagreeable. Some just take offense if you disagree with them and start with the insults. They are not necessarily trolls, but must be avoided in the same manner. I simply do not reply to them and the usually cease. In all the years on this blog, there have been only two people with whom I have had a serious disagreement. It just isn't worth the effort to argue. I really enjoy most of the bloggers and the humor. If this were simply a technical blog, I would be long gone.
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807. 786
Thx I hope so...
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Quoting 786:
I'm a longtime lurker, this is the worst I've seen it. If this was last year there would have been at least 100 pages. Most of the good guys with the knowledge we seek left and the ones who remain hardly come on now because there have been so many immature trolls on the blog. If we lose the few bloggers who still share their wealth of info this may as well become a random chat room
You have an excellent point, however, there have always been trolls. I can remember times in 2006 and 2007 that they were posting links to pornography and even actual pornographic images. I'm not easily offended but I remember a so-called doctor of meteorology who used anti-semitic slurs directed at one of the more meteorologically informed bloggers a year or two ago.

IMHO, the real reason that bloggers have abandoned this blog is the debate has become personal or harassing in some cases, and politics has been injected into science. It's just my opinion but if you could ask those that left why they did, I don't think their sole reason or main reason would be trolls.

There are some on here whose weather analysis with which I rarely agree yet on occasion they'll post something that I didn't notice or provide information about a factor with which I was unaware. In simpler terms, they educate me. Whether we agree or disagree with each others opinions, we can all learn from each other. At least, I do.


The situation with TD19 is similar Paula with a cold front descending south but in this case the front is much slower moving, and may stall. I've noticed over the years that these late season systems can take some crazy paths.
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Quoting 786:
I'm a longtime lurker, this is the worst I've seen it. If this was last year there would have been at least 100 pages. Most of the good guys with the knowledge we seek left and the ones who remain hardly come on now because there have been so many immature trolls on the blog. If we lose the few bloggers who still share their wealth of info this may as well become a random chat room


The hour is late and a lot of us have known each other for many years. It is true a lot of the good bloggers have gone, but there are still some of us old-timers left. Sometimes we tease to break the boredom of a long day. That happens on a lot of blogs. When things get really serious, so do most of us. It will be better tomorrow. The NHC should have a better handle on the motion and intensity. Then you will see action on the blog. Have a little laugh now and then.
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Next storm after RICHARD could be an E caribbean one...and a significant one. That's pretty rare in november.
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Link



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Quoting 786:
I'm a longtime lurker, this is the worst I've seen it. If this was last year there would have been at least 100 pages. Most of the good guys with the knowledge we seek left and the ones who remain hardly come on now because there have been so many immature trolls on the blog. If we lose the few bloggers who still share their wealth of info this may as well become a random chat room
It's not as bad as you make it out to be. It's late at night for some. This is a late season storm that apparantly tonite has taken many by surprise,.....even the NHC. You'd think there would be some planes in the system now, or anytime in the last few hours. The only data we have are buoys and satellite presentation. A HH flight or ASCAT pass would help.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5618
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Surprised there aren't more members around.
This thing is really blowing up some convection.
It looks to be a TS easily. Looks like it's a moderate TS and growing. I have the center at 80.5, 17.2, though it's possible it's even further SE. Sure would be nice to have a satellite pass.

Nobody was expecting a Halloween surprise.
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798. 786
I'm a longtime lurker, this is the worst I've seen it. If this was last year there would have been at least 100 pages. Most of the good guys with the knowledge we seek left and the ones who remain hardly come on now because there have been so many immature trolls on the blog. If we lose the few bloggers who still share their wealth of info this may as well become a random chat room
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797. ackee
looking at TD #19 is it making that southward move yet too close jamaica cant wait it make that move
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796. 7544
looks like a 50 mph storm out there and getting stroger imo
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Surprised there aren't more members around.
This thing is really blowing up some convection.
It looks to be a TS easily. Looks like it's a moderate TS and growing. I have the center at 80.5, 17.2, though it's possible it's even further SE. Sure would be nice to have a satellite pass.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5618
793. JLPR2
Time to see another swirly thing.


Now back to Td 19... XD
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792. xcool
NEW GFS TAKE 99L TO NOLA HMM
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791. JLPR2
Quoting Seastep:


Ummm... Hades knows that. He keeps us updated on the pacific and I, for one, appreciate it. TD19 in the pacific. :)

Bedtime. Have to be honest, I am a little nervous about what I'll see in the AM.

Goodnight all.


Yeah, everyone keeps their eyes on the ATL while he informs us of tropical systems elsewhere. :D
Good since I would probably not even know the existence of some if it weren't for his updates. XD
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Sends it to Yucatan and vanishes???

Quoting reedzone:
After constant runs of showing nothing, the 00Z GFS has finally joined the models for a strong storm in the Caribbean.
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Quoting reedzone:
After constant runs of showing nothing, the 00Z GFS has finally joined the models for a strong storm in the Caribbean.


Good call reed! I think this one may have taken a lot by surprise. Didn't look all that impressive this afternoon, but looks good now. If it can stay together through tomorrow, conditions will improve for strengthening.
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:
not the same system look at the coordinates 80E ON it looks like a system in the indian ocean that isnt td 19 lol


Ummm... Hades knows that. He keeps us updated on the pacific and I, for one, appreciate it. TD19 in the pacific. :)

Bedtime. Have to be honest, I am a little nervous about what I'll see in the AM.

Goodnight all.
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Quoting AEKDB1990:
The Tampa Bay 1921 hurricane has been downgraded to Cat 2 on Wikipedia. But it is still Cat 3 on HURDAT. Link


It was weakening in the last few hours before landfall.

But back then they did not have HH planes or satellites so all they could go by to determine the strength of the system was estimates based on wind damage and storm surge, especially if there were no reliable anemometers at or near where the center came ashore, as was the case with that storm.

Back in 1921 there were more rattlesnakes than there were humans in the area where the storm came ashore, near Palm Harbor. Most of the storm surge and its related damage were in and around Tampa, more than 20 miles to the SE of where the center came ashore.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
After constant runs of showing nothing, the 00Z GFS has finally joined the models for a strong storm in the Caribbean.
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Also worry If the satellite sees this....

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777. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
12:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Wake Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.7N 159.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 17 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.8N 156.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting AEKDB1990:



Or little Richard singing tutti-fruity.


Good Golly Miss Molley! Someone who remembers Little Richard. I remember him singing that song.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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