Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:11 PM GMT on October 20, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.

Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.

Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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876. IKE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
507 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 12Z MON OCT 25 2010 - 12Z THU OCT 28 2010


USED THE 00Z/21 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 12Z/20 ECENS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL
DIFFERING ONLY IN TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHARP
POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ALL THE MODELS...GFS INCLUDED...ARE NOW HONORING THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...DELAYING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THAT REGION UNTIL THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR DAYS NOW...WITH THE LATEST
NEARLY CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH INDICATED OVER THE PLAINS DAY 7
SIMPLY A VARIATION ON A THEME. THERE IS STILL WIGGLE ROOM FOR THE
ULTIMATE POSITIONS OF THE INTENSE CYCLONES PRODUCED BY THIS
PATTERN...WITH SOME JUMPING NO DOUBT TO COME IN DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. WHETHER A TROPICAL SYSTEM CAN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE EXTREME MERIDIONAL FLOW IS ANOTHER
WILDCARD.


CISCO
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Well, the models are starting to flop toward the Yucatan channel and the winds are forecasted to get higher than six hours ago. It looks like a hurricane around Tampa. Richard.


Yep, and will catch a lot of people off gaurd this late in the season. Most will pay little or no attention to it.
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
HELLO IKE .Well the florida doom and gloom continues.The same time this storm is predicted to enter the gulf is the same eact time we had a storm in the gulf in 1985.The pattern shaping up is also pretty similar.I suppose why many on here do not mention this storm as a possibility is its west of the most desired state people want a storm to hit lol.Probably why they really dont bring it up is because a lot of them are newbies or not old enough.The storm was juan check its history out and the time it was around .Have a blessed day Aqua and ike May God keep you .


People around here, here being LA, don't ever mention Juan. I think however, this year, the rain from even a TS would be welcome.
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Well, the models are starting to flop toward the Yucatan channel and the winds are forecasted to get higher than six hours ago. It looks like a hurricane around Tampa. Richard.
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If I had a water gauge it'd be full of sand and dust. The fire in the National Forest next to me is 60% contained. We need rain!
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HELLO IKE .Well the florida doom and gloom continues.The same time this storm is predicted to enter the gulf is the same eact time we had a storm in the gulf in 1985.The pattern shaping up is also pretty similar.I suppose why many on here do not mention this storm as a possibility is its west of the most desired state people want a storm to hit lol.Probably why they really dont bring it up is because a lot of them are newbies or not old enough.The storm was juan check its history out and the time it was around .Have a blessed day Aqua and ike May God keep you .
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks for the kind words, waterpuppy and SweetHomeBamaGOM.

Recon is nearing the CoC.



yw....again, like you, i'm just callin em as i see em lol


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no on four again they are really pushing that. it is a threat for big money. a change? proposition 19 in calif. will do that that will ruffle a few feathers. wish it was friday
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Quoting aquak9:


how can I resist?

We have everything you could ever imagine. We are RainmanWeather, a fully authorized WeatherUnderground vendor.

We also have the Better Business Bureau approval.

We're just up the road here in Jacksonville, Florida. Feel free to conract us, either through the site, or using the 1-800 ph#. Tell'm Aqua sent you.


Thank You,

I will tell them,

Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
866. IKE
Recon closing in...Link
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Thanks for the kind words, waterpuppy and SweetHomeBamaGOM.

Recon is nearing the CoC.
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864. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
nice try ike but I am savvy to your ear-whigs.

I do like that song tho.

My gauge has been collecting Leezerds.

Ya'll have a sunshiny day.


LOL...have a nice day!

56.5 outside my location.
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Nothing to downcast this morning? Lol. Looks like Florida wishcasters might get what they wished for. Blog going to get crazy today
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nice try ike but I am savvy to your ear-whigs.

I do like that song tho.

My gauge has been collecting Leezerds.

Ya'll have a sunshiny day.
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Quoting Autistic2:
I want to buy one of those "Back Yard weather stations" That show Rain, pressure, wind speed and direction, temperature, and what else? Where would I start looking?


how can I resist?

We have everything you could ever imagine. We are RainmanWeather, a fully authorized WeatherUnderground vendor.

We also have the Better Business Bureau approval.

We're just up the road here in Jacksonville, Florida. Feel free to conract us, either through the site, or using the 1-800 ph#. Tell'm Aqua sent you.
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Quoting shikori:


Thats a valid point neapolitan, but don't you think it could have been made without so much stereotyping, it almost sounded as if you are ranting.



i believe those such as nea have every right to vent. i certainly a) am not arguing with anyone (and not you) and b) i'm just trying to stand up for those that assist and provide the rest of us with very important information we utilize.

i have to say in truth that i have turned to the weather underground almost entirely (as well as tracking maps, info, etc from wisconsin and nhc) to keep an eye on storms because i truly believe the weather channel has become a bad source for true information ever since nbc bought them. i hate to see the good people in this blog leave, the ones that really contribute insightful information, and might i add, FREE of charge!

so let me stress again i'm not wanting to argue with you or anyone about this point, or anything in the future. i was just quoting you because it is trained eyes like nea's that makes this blog a very valuable resource. we as participants and lurkers should stand up for them and try to end the constant bickering, downcasting, upcasting, and any other problems that arise.

again i want to thank you shikori and nea and everyone that contributes. i just wish that all of you that are starting problems (and you shall remain nameless) would either stop or leave, for everyone's sake.


anyhow, this is the last post i will make in regards to the lunacy that occurs (and will undoubtedly occur today with the current track and forecast of 99L) in here, i just wanted to tell everyone thank you for contributing and hopefully in the process i would make the bad people feel guilty or feel like they want to stop upsetting people.


now, time to sit back and watch the fireworks start as 99L aligns vertically. looks like he definitely has half-way got his act together overnight. he isn't in a hurry to move so he has time to strengthen considerably given the current variables and trends.....today shall be interesting :)

on that note, and on the previous note, i sincerely hope that all of you that contribute very valued opinions and information...well, i hope you stay. don't let the ignorant, stupid, and evil run you off....if we all ignore them they will get tired of it and go away to find greener pastures. if they think they are winning (running all of us off, getting us upset, get us to respond to them, etc) they will only be encouraged. one thing i have learned about trolls is regardless of age they are acting like 12 yr. olds, and need to be treated as such. lol


have a great day and thank you all again :)
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859. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
hi aislinpapps- sorry - didn't know you were up- a good morning on a bright october day to you. Mosy errr...all of the southeast should be bright n sunny.

Ike. Maybe a little bitta rain for ya'll? but nuthin' like it's gonna do any good.


The only thing my rain gauge is collecting is bird droppings.

Next week looks encouraging for rain here. Then a blast of maybe the coldest air of the season late next week...into Halloween weekend.

It's been a cruel summer...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Mobile,AL...

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...VERY INTERESTING. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY...SO GLFMEX REMAINS WIDE
OPEN. PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE PRESENT NEAR CUBA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
WITH BROAD FLAT COAST-TO- COAST UPPER TROUGH OVER CONUS. PIECE OF
ENERGY AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING THROUGH AFOREMENTIONED ON WEST COAST
AND THEN AMPLIFIES GRADUALLY TO BE LOCATED OVER SW U.S. FOUR CORNERS
BY TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ...MODELS INSIST ON ADVECTING WEAK SFC LOW
NWD OUT OF TROPICS AND INTO SRN GLFMEX. SPECTRAL MODELS EXHIBIT
DISSENT ON PRECISELY WHERE FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED BUT GENERAL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN IS THE SAME...DEEP LAYER POSITIVE THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL FEEL OVERLY MUGGY UNTIL SFC COLD
FRONT CLEANS US OUT SOMETIME NEXT THURSDAY (NEW DAY 7). LATEST
GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS SOLTN`S ALL AGREE WITH THE SCENARIO AND
EVOLUTION OF ADVANCING SW U.S. TROUGH INTO PLAINS AND THEN SHOVING
LARGE SCALE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THAT RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MIDDAY
WED THROUGH EARLY THU TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ITS BEEN BRUTALLY
DRY...TOO MUCH RAIN TOO FAST IS NOT GOOD EITHER. TOO FAR OUT TO
DISCUSS RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL POSITIONING AND MAGNITUDE OF MAJOR
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AND HIGH PW AIR IN PRESENCE OF STUBBORN RIDGE JUST TO
EAST PORTENDS MUCH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WHEN ADVANCING TROUGH
BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON OUR REGION. SO...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE LARGE SCALE SETUP FOR RECEIVING HEALTHY RAINFALL EVENT AS JUST
DESCRIBED.


Say goodbye to the dry...
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I want to buy one of those "Back Yard weather stations" That show Rain, pressure, wind speed and direction, temperature, and what else? Where would I start looking?
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
hi aislinpapps- sorry - didn't know you were up- a good morning on a bright october day to you. Mosy errr...all of the southeast should be bright n sunny.

Ike. Maybe a little bitta rain for ya'll? but nuthin' like it's gonna do any good.
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Wishcaster, yes, I wish it would rain here in saint augustine!
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
854. IKE
Mobile,AL...

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...VERY INTERESTING. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY...SO GLFMEX REMAINS WIDE
OPEN. PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE PRESENT NEAR CUBA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
WITH BROAD FLAT COAST-TO- COAST UPPER TROUGH OVER CONUS. PIECE OF
ENERGY AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING THROUGH AFOREMENTIONED ON WEST COAST
AND THEN AMPLIFIES GRADUALLY TO BE LOCATED OVER SW U.S. FOUR CORNERS
BY TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ...MODELS INSIST ON ADVECTING WEAK SFC LOW
NWD OUT OF TROPICS AND INTO SRN GLFMEX. SPECTRAL MODELS EXHIBIT
DISSENT ON PRECISELY WHERE FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED BUT GENERAL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN IS THE SAME...DEEP LAYER POSITIVE THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL FEEL OVERLY MUGGY UNTIL SFC COLD
FRONT CLEANS US OUT SOMETIME NEXT THURSDAY (NEW DAY 7). LATEST
GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS SOLTN`S ALL AGREE WITH THE SCENARIO AND
EVOLUTION OF ADVANCING SW U.S. TROUGH INTO PLAINS AND THEN SHOVING
LARGE SCALE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THAT RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MIDDAY
WED THROUGH EARLY THU TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ITS BEEN BRUTALLY
DRY...TOO MUCH RAIN TOO FAST IS NOT GOOD EITHER. TOO FAR OUT TO
DISCUSS RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL POSITIONING AND MAGNITUDE OF MAJOR
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AND HIGH PW AIR IN PRESENCE OF STUBBORN RIDGE JUST TO
EAST PORTENDS MUCH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WHEN ADVANCING TROUGH
BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON OUR REGION. SO...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE LARGE SCALE SETUP FOR RECEIVING HEALTHY RAINFALL EVENT AS JUST
DESCRIBED.
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TropicalDepression19's heading had turned southward to (10.2degrees east of) SouthSouthEast
from its previous heading of (1.1degrees south of) SouthEast
TD.19's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~8.3mph(~13.4km/h)
from its previous moving speed of ~6.3mph(~10.2km/h)
Invest 99L
19Oct 06pmGMT - 17.4n83.4w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.0n83.0w*1009mb
20Oct 12amGMT - 17.7n83.2w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF*17.6n83.4w
20Oct 06amGMT - 17.8n82.9w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF
20Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n82.5w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*1007mb
20Oct 06pmGMT - 17.6n81.6w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.1n82.2w
TropicalDepression19
21Oct 12amGMT - 17.6n81.2w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
21Oct 03amGMT - 17.5n81.1w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#1
21Oct 06amGMT - 17.3n80.9w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1005mb - ATCF
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers

Copy&paste 17.4n83.4w, 17.7n83.2w, 17.8n82.9w, 17.7n82.5w, 17.6n81.6w-17.6n81.2w, 17.6n81.2w-17.5n81.1w, 17.5n81.1w-17.3n80.9w, 17.3n80.9w-17.0n80.7w, rtb, puz, nbw into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 15^hours

^ The southernmost(latest)line-segment and the 2 preceding line-segments individually span 3hours between reported positions
The northernmost line-segment spans 6hours between reported positions.
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Quoting shikori:


Thank you
Don't worry. Looks like school will be open. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
850. IKE
Dedicated to TD19...aka Richard...Link

114 hour 850mb vorticity on the 6Z GFS....

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848. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning handsome men- I don't see any women up this early- -

neapolitan (swoon) good point, I enjoyed what you wrote

ike- on seflagamma's blog header, is the fla drought map. It updates automatically. Gettin' ugly, only gonna get uglier.


Aquak....

Sounds like half of the posts on here...."heading for RI"..."it's gonna blow away Miami".....:)

There is hope....

It's suppose to rain here next week. Drought relief on the way.
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Quoting shikori:


Ok fair enough, so where is the center of td19 located now?
5:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 21
Location: 17.0°N 80.7°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: SE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
06Z NAM(84HR):

500MB:


300MB:


You'll notice a low shear region from NW Carib into the FL Peninsula as the low level to Upper level high is pushed out to the W ATL by an incoming TROF which should be by TX around this forecast time. Shear around this time frame should range from 15 to 25KTS. If TD19 becomes strong enough forecasted by both HWRF and GFDL then it could fight off enough shear to allow it to maintain its structure.

Unfortunately current WX patterns highly favor recurvature to the NE once it enters the GOM. If of course is able to sustain itself and get strong enough. Nonetheless the end resulting system should be a sheared one.

We'll just have to keep checking the upper level patterns to see how favorable things could get for further intensification, but one thing is for sure and that is that if TD19 keeps lingering across the W Carib under the Upper level anti cyclone... the better chances it will have to get stronger.

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Quoting aquak9:
g'morning handsome men- I don't see any women up this early- -

neapolitan (swoon) good point, I enjoyed what you wrote

ike- on seflagamma's blog header, is the fla drought map. It updates automatically. Gettin' ugly, only gonna get uglier.


Morning aqua9. Unfortunately, I'm up. But it's Thursday, and tomorrow is Friday. *G*
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Quoting shikori:


Thats a valid point neapolitan, but don't you think it could have been made without so much stereotyping, it almost sounded as if you are ranting.

It's called "giving an opinion," but if you want to call it "ranting", that's fine. But "stereotyping"? No; doesn't quite fit the definition. Just calling it as I see it...and I don't believe any of those were incorrect.
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g'morning handsome men- I don't see any women up this early- -

neapolitan (swoon) good point, I enjoyed what you wrote

ike- on seflagamma's blog header, is the fla drought map. It updates automatically. Gettin' ugly, only gonna get uglier.
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ECMWF on Tuesday.. Hurricane Richard entering the Gulf, Tropical Storm Shary in the Northern Atlantic.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
TD19 is probably Richard right now, but the NHC made a good call.. wait for recon to be sure.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
Good Morning, everyone. Looks like with 99L the blog will get busier: the good, the bad and the ugly.
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Richard, and most of the models sat he'll hit the Yucatan and I'm assuming die in the Gulf, however I think a FL landfall is entirely possible. Worst case scenario is Wilma I expect a cat 2 in Cozumel
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Good Morning...

Appears ECMWF likes to have soon to be Robert pay a visit to the Panhandle. Subject to chance of course.
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834. IKE
TD19 at 17.0N and 80.7W.

Buoy 42057 @ 16.8N and 81.5W....Link

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.2 °F
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
the real reason people are abandoning this blog is because immature people literally attack if someone says something that the downcasters or upcasters dont like. regardless of the facts, information, feedback loops, variables, and trends immature jerks attack relentlessly, and it gets old. who wants to contribute for free when all they will get is abused.

i also suspect we have troll lurkers who are creating several, if not dozens, of bogus accounts. they do this to give the appearance that someone is being overwhelmed, when in reality it is one or two idiots posting bulls*it under 30 pseudo acct's.

Sad but true. As interested as I am in tropical weather, I almost hate to see something forming, because I know that means the morons will show up. Yesterday was a great example: in just a few hours' time, we've had:

-Racist idiots (who kept being quoted but not reported or just ignored);

--Barely literate downcasters and hypercasters who act as though a weather discussion should be carried on like they're talking about a sports rivalry ("Richards jus going POOF over south american!!!!" followed by "NO!!! ur a idiot! ul eat KROW when its hit Florda!");

--Supposed mets who may have degrees, but who have the personality and charm of a school of dead fish;

--Those who incessantly and immaturely bash the NHC and other experts. ("I can't believe those morons blew it again! This is clearly a Cat 1 or even a Cat 2, so they must be keeping it an invest because they don't want to scare people!" or "What were they thinking when they upgraded that?!??! It clearly isn't a tropical depression. Seems to me they're just trying to pad the numbers!!!")

--Wannabe comedians repeatedly posting the same bits of "humor" over and over and over and over and over again, using up valuable blog space and goodwill in the process;

--As you said, people who use multiple accounts to give the illusion that they've got corroboration for one extreme view or the other;

Ah, well, such is the nature of the internet. Trolls have always been here, and always will be. I'll just do my part and keep making full use of the red exclamation button and the minus button and the "hide" button, and hope the rest of the good guys do the same.
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832. IKE
Models on TD19...Link
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831. IKE
New Orleans...

LONG TERM...
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
FLOW INTO TROUGHING FROM APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW DYNAMICS EJECTING
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ON THE
MOVE WITH ENOUGH SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW TO NUDGE IT ALONG FOR
ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN GULF STATES BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD OPEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF AND BRING A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ACTIVATE UNDER OMEGA FEATURES
EMANATING WITHIN THE FLOW FROM THE CUT-OFF CIRCULATION.
MEANWHILE...T.D. 19 /AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM RICHARD LATER
TODAY/ IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS
SUGGEST REMNANT CIRCULATION ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
COULD BECOME INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL INTERACTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING IN REGARDS
TO FUTURE TRACK OF TD 19 /RICHARD?/ BEYOND 120 HOURS. MODELS ALSO
ARE LATCHING ON TO DEEPER TROUGHING BY LATE NEXT WEEK TO BRING A
PROSPECT OF FIRST FROST TO THE GULF STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL
PERFORMANCE UNCERTAINTIES ARE RATHER HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO
WILL WAIT TO SEE RUN-TO-RUN BEHAVIOR BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS NOTION
BUT IT DOES FALL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED ONLY A HAND FULL OF FIRST FREEZES OCCURRED PRIOR TO NOV 1
THIS FAR SOUTH. MCCOMB RECORDED ITS EARLIEST FREEZE ON OCT 19 1989
WITH A FEW MORE YEARS CLOSER TO OCTOBER 30TH. 24/RR
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830. IKE
Long-term from central Alabama....

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY ADJUST TO A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WHICH HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THE PAST MONTH
OR SO WILL NOW BE FAR ENOUGH DISPLACED EAST TO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. ALSO...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL DIG
FARTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO GIVE
ALABAMA MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN
THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAIN FORCING WILL BE
EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE LOW END AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A VERY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ONCE THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. THIS MEANS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A WARM AND SOUPY AIR MASS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK FORCING. RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. NEXT MAJOR SHORT
WAVE TROF WILL AFFECT AREA ON THURSDAY.
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Quoting poknsnok:


cause the forecast trac is boring

Well, not that boring. From the 5AM TWO:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON."

So...the NHC is predicting a stronger storm, and one with a batter chance of shooting the YC slot. Boring? Not after the bulk of the Florida guys arise and log in shortly.

Oh, yeah: recon is on the way, and should be there in 30 minutes or so.
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828. IKE
Tallahassee/western Florida panhandle extended.....

"WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS FOR THE EXTENDED AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 19 MEANDERS ABOUT. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.".....

Some rain!
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Quoting scottsvb:
The reason that most of us Meteorologists don't post on these boards is cause no one really listens to us. We tell you straight out what's going to "probably" happen and if some peeps that have no degree think something otherwise, the Mets get bashed and others will join the bash on the Met... and that Usually happens if the Met says " This won't be upgraded or This won't hit land or where a certain person lives.

That is the problem with some of the people that post 50 times a day. They think they know what they are talking about and others do also cause they know how to post links or they post video's but really have no logical reason of why it may/may not happen.

It be easier if a Met comes on with a Met tag, but in reality, people will always try to challenge a person with a degree, especially if they want to be proven correct over the Meteorologist.


Exactly. ONe or two on here think that own this blog. All you have to do is see the number of post or comments for some and figure it out....LOL......dang i got over 16,000...LOL
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
the real reason people are abandoning this blog is because immature people literally attack if someone says something that the downcasters or upcasters dont like. regardless of the facts, information, feedback loops, variables, and trends immature jerks attack relentlessly, and it gets old. who wants to contribute for free when all they will get is abused.


i also suspect we have troll lurkers who are creating several, if not dozens, of bogus accounts. they do this to give the appearance that someone is being overwhelmed, when in reality it is one or two idiots posting bulls*it under 30 pseudo acct's.

if it doesn't stop i will quit coming in as well. the ignorance and stupidity in here is reaching new lows as each day passes. everyone is sick and tired of dumb asses who think that they should argue with mother nature, or that arguing with people is going to change the direction of the path of a given storm. its idiotic. it's getting old and you will notice that is why i am contributing less and less as time goes on.

yesterday was a perfect example. look how many people came into the blog that were supposedly from florida. almost every one of em argued about 99L, and they literally got pissed and abused others just because mother nature may be pointing a storm at florida.


way to go loser trolls and idiots. you are ruining a beautiful thing in here....but, after all, i am sure that's your intention isn't it....


Far from being a professional but, as a follower for some time i too don't come here often anymore. Not just because of the trolls but, because of the people that stay on here sun up to sun down and everytime something is posted they have to find something wrong and they get away of posting their graphics to lure them to their website where they sell stuff. Are you kidding and WU allows it!

I just updated my Website with all the stuff on TD19 soon to be Richard.

Tropical Update
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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