Western Caribbean disturbance 99L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on October 20, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) near the Cayman Islands is drifting eastwards towards Jamaica, and has changed little in organization this morning, but is very close to tropical depression status. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 3.85" inches has fallen over the past 48 hours at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains will continue over the Cayman Islands today and spread to western Jamaica this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has a well-defined surface circulation, but the center is exposed to view and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. The Hurricane Hunters will be in 99L around 11am EDT this morning to see if the storm is indeed a tropical depression.

Forecast for 99L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will stay marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, for the remainder of today, then decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Tuesday, as 99L positions itself more underneath the upper-level high near the coast of Honduras. Any motion by 99L to the southwest will tend to decrease the shear over 99L, and any motion to the north or east will increase the shear, so 99L's current eastwards drift is detrimental for development. Steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to, and how much shear might affect the storm. By Saturday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of 99L, forcing the storm on a generally westward track. This should allow 99L to find an environment with less shear. The GFDL and HWRF model predicts a more west-northwestward track, with 99L passing through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Sunday or Monday as a hurricane. The GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS models predict a more west-southwesterly path, with 99L making landfall in Belize Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday; I'd put these odds at 80%, and expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Thursday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.

Next update
I'll have an update later today, with the timing depending upon what the Hurricane Hunters find.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Oh, I've had plenty of experience dealing with them, as I do emergency response work and continuity of operations planning... These roles have been assumed since 2003 with the State. My parents were living in Kissimmee during '04. I had the pleasure of being on the phone with my Mom, hearing what sounded like a freight train, and then silence for 36 HOURS before I heard from them again during Charley. That year, they had 80 mph+ sustained winds THREE TIMES at the small Kissimmeee airport, which was less than 3 miles from their house. They said that was easily the scariest thing they had gone through, and after they got power back on the thing they missed the most was their fans...

But I live in the armpit of the state where it's really quite hard to get a system to come up here. The last good hit we had in Tallahassee was a late November cane (Kate) that knocked power out for 2 weeks over Thanksgiving... Unfortunately, I was still living in Ohio at the time. Tallahassee is particularly vulnerable to trees being toppled from the high winds. Most of our power poles are above ground, and we're basically in the middle of a forest. Even a decent TS direct hit will be a power nightmare for this city.

I've seen and helped recover from the devastation, but not experienced any myself. Part of me wants to go through one and have my belongings and psyche shaken to where I don't have the desire to go through any more...I think that's what it's going to take, unfortunately.

Please don't attack me for wanting a hurricane EXPERIENCE... I realize how horrible of a thing the destruction is for all parties involved.


Don't feel bad...I use to feel the same way until Andrew came through town.
Member Since: September 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
Quoting oracle28:


GOM is too cool for a Major, IMO.
I would disagree there. GOM SST average is about 27.5 C and the requirement is what, 26.5 C? However that is not the only thing that will determine a tropical system in general. You could have cooler air temps at high altitude, even when you have cooler sst's, I think. Correct me if I am wrong, though.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
Quoting kmanislander:
The HH just found 1007.3 mb pressure reading in the center of 99L. That is quite a drop from what they saw much earlier today.


I believe it. The circulation honestly looks very nice and ready to go if the shear relaxes just a bit more.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26731
251. stormwatcherCI
5:43 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Who is JFV?
Neighborhood troll.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
250. Levi32
5:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Visible loop is now revealing that 99L's dominant surface vortex is no longer the actual center of the circulation. This is the spinner that is moving SSE in an obvious way on the loop, but this is no longer the real center of the system. If you look at the circulation as a whole, you will notice that the vortex heading SSE is actually part of a broader circulation that is nearly stationary and centered northeast of the main surface vortex. This is indicating that the center of low pressure wants to stay close to where the convection is, and the SSE dive of the current anchoring vortex is deceiving. The system is not taking off that way. The vortex will likely either weaken or try to pull in to the east as the afternoon goes on.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26731
249. FLWaterFront
5:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



there are also alot of other variables when speaking of katrina. just saying this, but try to tell the people in biloxi and gulfport that the winds were mild in katrina...heck even ask people in wiggins, mississippi. your extremely incorrect when you say katrina had low wind damage. it wind racked houses for 100's of miles inland.

you are correct that a ewrc can affect the actual amount of damage, but there are a ton of other variables. large hurricanes can cause 100's and 100's of tornadoes that go unreported (let alone microbursts). a weakening trend in an ewrc can affect a storm, but a strong wind event is a strong wind event.

in addition, mb pressures also play into structural damage. just saying that to say katrina was a minor wind event is crazy, to say the least. people along the gulf coast here are STILL rebuilding ......


I did not mean to suggest that there was no wind damage or very little wind damage with Katrina. I should have been more clear on that point.

What I meant to say was that the amount of wind damage with Katrina (especially with its third landfall near Pass Christian, MS when it was already down to a Cat 3) was relatively less compared to a storm of identical size and strength but that was intensifying at landfall and not weakening, as Katrina was.

Naturally, any major hurricane is going to cause wind damage, regardless of other circumstances. And yes there are the tornados and microbursts to contend with, although the latter is probably usually worse also in an intensifying storm.

But there is a difference between storms that are weakening when they make landfall and those that are intensifying. This has not as of yet been officially declared as a fact in meteorology but it is a prevailing hypothesis.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 794
248. stormwatcherCI
5:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:
The HH just found 1007.3 mb pressure reading in the center of 99L. That is quite a drop from what they saw much earlier today.
Looks like it is slightly beginning to fire some convection on the s and w side now too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
247. IKE
5:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
12Z CMC...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
246. FtMyersgal
5:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting aprinz1979:


I agree with you too, just that I've noticed there is a trend here for hypercasting and since Levi is "THE BEST" I just wanted to throw that out there before JFV came back........LOL


Who is JFV?
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
245. LoveThemCanes
5:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
Levi is on the money....Florida residents....keep supplies near by...

hmmmm, I ate mine already.....might have to go shopping again next week
Member Since: September 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
244. kwgirl
5:41 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting intampa:
please please something send rain to tampa area....PLEASE
You may get your wish in a week. We'll see where this storm goes.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
243. kmanislander
5:41 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
The HH just found 1007.3 mb pressure reading in the center of 99L. That is quite a drop from what they saw much earlier today.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
242. intampa
5:39 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
please please something send rain to tampa area....PLEASE
Member Since: July 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
241. scooster67
5:38 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


hey beavis...he said naked...lol

Ah. haha, Yes Yes
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
239. katadman
5:35 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


It's my pleasure =)



Levi, your daily tid-bit is one of the main reasons I come here each day. Thanks!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
238. stormpetrol
5:35 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
000
URNT12 KNHC 201704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992010
A. 20/16:47:40Z
B. 17 deg 20 min N
081 deg 31 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 022 deg 51 nm
F. 107 deg 26 kt
G. 025 deg 57 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 23 C / 273 m
J. 23 C / 273 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 02IIA INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 26 KT NE QUAD 16:30:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 035 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
237. acyddrop
5:34 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, October 20th, with Video


Great post, thanks Levi
Member Since: October 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
236. Ryuujin
5:34 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


I find it unlikely, but his statement:

"Vigilence is a good idea... Talking about potential bad things is a good idea too... I'd rather hear the worse case scenario\potential than plan for a weaker\non system and be blind-sided by a major."

is right on. This is why covering the potential worst-case impacts and all possible solutions is essential to any forecast regarding tropical cyclones.


Thank you Levi. This is what. I've treid to get through the posters on this blog since I've been here. There are some bloggers that are way, way too dismissive of the chance of a Tropical System coming their way that they all too often turn a blind eye to the chance of it happen and routinely encourage others to do the same.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
234. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:33 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting FLWaterFront:


There are three reasons for that, IMO:

1. It made landfall in an exceptionally sparsely populated area.

2. The Philippine government did an unusually good job of evacuating people from the most vulnerable areas and issuing warnings well ahead of time.

3. Megi seems to have entered into a weakening phase just before making landfall. This is important because no matter how strong a TC is when it makes landfall, if it is weakening then the highest winds are more likely to stay above the surface, perhaps by as little as 30 meters but that is still critically important.

If you look back in history, tropical cyclones that are in a strengthening phase when making landfall usually have by far the worst wind damage and certainly no less water impacts than do weakening cyclones. The really big storms, such as Katrina for instance, can still have devastating storm surge but often have surprisingly little wind damage, relatively speaking.

Now contrast that with Charley, Andrew and Camille and you can quickly see the difference. All of those were still intensifying when they made landfall.



there are also alot of other variables when speaking of katrina. just saying this, but try to tell the people in biloxi and gulfport that the winds were mild in katrina...heck even ask people in wiggins, mississippi. your extremely incorrect when you say katrina had low wind damage. it wind racked houses for 100's of miles inland.

you are correct that a ewrc can affect the actual amount of damage, but there are a ton of other variables. large hurricanes can cause 100's and 100's of tornadoes that go unreported (let alone microbursts). a weakening trend in an ewrc can affect a storm, but a strong wind event is a strong wind event.

in addition, mb pressures also play into structural damage. just saying that to say katrina was a minor wind event is crazy, to say the least. people along the gulf coast here are STILL rebuilding ......
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
233. FSUCOOPman
5:32 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
you've never been through a cane and your in fla? it's an experience...that's for sure.

hope you have followed advice in regards to preparing for a landfalling event. not saying u should run now and buy stuff, just saying i hope you know what to do.


Oh, I've had plenty of experience dealing with them, as I do emergency response work and continuity of operations planning... These roles have been assumed since 2003 with the State. My parents were living in Kissimmee during '04. I had the pleasure of being on the phone with my Mom, hearing what sounded like a freight train, and then silence for 36 HOURS before I heard from them again during Charley. That year, they had 80 mph+ sustained winds THREE TIMES at the small Kissimmeee airport, which was less than 3 miles from their house. They said that was easily the scariest thing they had gone through, and after they got power back on the thing they missed the most was their fans...

But I live in the armpit of the state where it's really quite hard to get a system to come up here. The last good hit we had in Tallahassee was a late November cane (Kate) that knocked power out for 2 weeks over Thanksgiving... Unfortunately, I was still living in Ohio at the time. Tallahassee is particularly vulnerable to trees being toppled from the high winds. Most of our power poles are above ground, and we're basically in the middle of a forest. Even a decent TS direct hit will be a power nightmare for this city.

I've seen and helped recover from the devastation, but not experienced any myself. Part of me wants to go through one and have my belongings and psyche shaken to where I don't have the desire to go through any more...I think that's what it's going to take, unfortunately.

Please don't attack me for wanting a hurricane EXPERIENCE... I realize how horrible of a thing the destruction is for all parties involved.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
232. kwgirl
5:32 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... one last hope for Florida eh?

You guys are persistent I'll give you that.
Well Florida is kinda sticking out like a sore thumb. And where that storm is located and the way the troughs are coming through, anything is possible. I am wishing and hoping and praying that it will be nothing.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
231. Waltanater
5:32 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
"The pattern change is coming"



To what?
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
230. FLWaterFront
5:30 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
you've never been through a cane and your in fla? it's an experience...that's for sure.

hope you have followed advice in regards to preparing for a landfalling event. not saying u should run now and buy stuff, just saying i hope you know what to do.


i get very very tired in hurricanes. the drop in low pressure makes me just want to sleep and sleep and sleep...


I experience the opposite effect. The adrenaline surge keeps me awake for days. Then afterwards, I am tired and depressed for days.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 794
229. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:27 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Jax82:
SSTs last 30 days.



rememeber sst's are one factor, but so are 26m readings. one diagram, model, map, or whatever can never truly tell the full story.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
228. cre13
5:26 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I meant more in the way of SFL & deep south. I should have been more specific as to region. You guys are the complete opposite since the subtropical last month really did you guys in.


Oh that makes sense :)

Yeah, it definitely did us in! My in laws had 10" of water in their garage and the road to their house was completely submerged under a couple feet of water for nearly 4 days after the storm. It was a mess around here. Some retaining ponds are still holding a lot of water.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
226. FLWaterFront
5:25 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Waltanater:
Looks like Megi did minimal damage. Only 13 causualties.


There are three reasons for that, IMO:

1. It made landfall in an exceptionally sparsely populated area.

2. The Philippine government did an unusually good job of evacuating people from the most vulnerable areas and issuing warnings well ahead of time.

3. Megi seems to have entered into a weakening phase just before making landfall. This is important because no matter how strong a TC is when it makes landfall, if it is weakening then the highest winds are more likely to stay above the surface, perhaps by as little as 30 meters but that is still critically important.

If you look back in history, tropical cyclones that are in a strengthening phase when making landfall usually have by far the worst wind damage and certainly no less water impacts than do weakening cyclones. The really big storms, such as Katrina for instance, can still have devastating storm surge but often have surprisingly little wind damage, relatively speaking.

Now contrast that with Charley, Andrew and Camille and you can quickly see the difference. All of those were still intensifying when they made landfall.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 794
225. Keys99
5:24 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Are the HH going to mark it at the first Pressure dot for the two? or move it to the east where they are looking around at now
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
224. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:23 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
you've never been through a cane and your in fla? it's an experience...that's for sure.

hope you have followed advice in regards to preparing for a landfalling event. not saying u should run now and buy stuff, just saying i hope you know what to do.


i get very very tired in hurricanes. the drop in low pressure makes me just want to sleep and sleep and sleep...
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
223. aprinz1979
5:21 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... one last hope for Florida eh?

You guys are persistent I'll give you that.


I already have 35 gal of fuel I bought back when Paula was forming and I was Strongly advised to get supplies so I'm preety much ready to give that generator a cranking!
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
222. aprinz1979
5:19 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting justalurker:


or moby dick




If you look closely at that picture you'll realize where he got his name from.
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
221. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:19 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting justalurker:


or moby dick




lol that should work with 3d glasses...lol
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
219. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:18 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Link

latest rainbow frame update

we may be seeing the beginning of convection wrapping up into bands running through the nw and sw quads.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
218. justalurker
5:17 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting lickitysplit:
its either gonna die out or turn into Megi.


or moby dick


Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
217. Pensa2woodtx
5:16 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Levi is on the money....Florida residents....keep supplies near by...
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 86
216. FSUCOOPman
5:16 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting aprinz1979:


I agree with you too, just that I've noticed there is a trend here for hypercasting and since Levi is "THE BEST" I just wanted to throw that out there before JFV came back........LOL


Heehee... As someone who's fascinated by storms and hasn't really gone through one, I can definitely sympathize with the hypercasters...

The closest thing to a storm I've been through was Opal, and i live in Tallahassee, which was NOWHERE near the highly damaged areas. I think a leaf fell off of the tree in my back yard because a blue bird farted.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
215. EYEStoSEA
5:14 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, October 20th, with Video


Thanks, Levi....a very logical and common sense filled Tidbit....as always. Hopefully only a rain event for the parched SE will come from this system, if anything.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
214. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:14 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Waltanater:
Looks like Megi did minimal damage. Only 13 causualties.



good news, but 13 lives is still a lot. pray for those who have lost loved ones, that is a horrific thing to go through.

let's also pray that the death count stays low, just remember 1 is never low enough :(
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
213. lickitysplit
5:13 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
its either gonna die out or turn into Megi.
Member Since: May 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
212. Waltanater
5:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Looks like Megi did minimal damage. Only 13 causualties.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
211. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting lickitysplit:
Getting some vertical alignment now and some increased sign of circulation despite the nakedness.


hey beavis...he said naked...lol
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
210. aprinz1979
5:11 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


No offense to Levi, Lord knows he's one of (if not THE)best we've got around here, but if he can accurately predict what a system will be doing in 7 days, he needs to be at the NHC because even they can't do that.

I still prefer to discuss worst case scenarios that are out there.

I never once said I believe the system will be a major because I don't, but if the potential exists, I want to talk about it.


I agree with you too, just that I've noticed there is a trend here for hypercasting and since Levi is "THE BEST" I just wanted to throw that out there before JFV came back........LOL
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
209. SweetHomeBamaGOM
5:11 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
will it or will it not be King Richard?

that's right folks,....step on up, place your bets. lol
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
208. lickitysplit
5:10 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Getting some vertical alignment now and some increased sign of circulation despite the nakedness.
Member Since: May 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
207. oleClegs
5:10 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I get what you're saying, but it's not like people are pulling the major hurricane idea out of their hineys... 3 models predicted a major in the GOM, of course people are going to respond to that data.

Climatology takes a system forming in this location north and then NNE to ENE across FL at some point.

The upper level stearing looks like it will be conducive to pulling whatever is left out in a manner similar to typical climatology.

Vigilence is a good idea... Talking about potential bad things is a good idea too... I'd rather hear the worse case scenario\potential than plan for a weaker\non system and be blind-sided by a major.



Agreed, I feel as if doom is being put out a little to early, alot has to happen and we just don't want to get ahead of ourselves.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 27
206. FSUCOOPman
5:08 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting aprinz1979:


Levi said that wasn't going to happen.


No offense to Levi, Lord knows he's one of (if not THE)best we've got around here, but if he can accurately predict what a system will be doing in 7 days, he needs to be at the NHC because even they can't do that.

I still prefer to discuss worst case scenarios that are out there.

I never once said I believe the system will be a major because I don't, but if the potential exists, I want to talk about it.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
205. CaneAddict
5:07 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Amazing how the GFDL turns the pathetic congregation of clouds that is 99L's circulation into a monster.



With the TCHP levels in that area, I wouldn't doubt it.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151

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