99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
LOL at #970


what did 970 do
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GFDL is forecasting the first CAT 5 of the year.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
LOL at #970
??????????
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LOL at #970
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting shikori:
GFDL has it hanging down there for a good 24-36 hours before strengthening. That much can be assumed without models.


Looking at IR2, I really think the GFDL is doing rather well with 99L. Granted the NHC doesn't call it a depression however, there were tropical storm force winds in this afternoons flight.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
i have been following this system along with the gfdl model and so far it has the best tracking on 99L
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Quoting Quatrix:
Is the stuff they're calling 99 just the remains of Paula?

Paula was a different system ...
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GFDL has it hanging down there for a good 24-36 hours before strengthening. That much can be assumed without models.
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Quatrix 99L has nothing to do with ex-Paula
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Quoting Quatrix:
Is the stuff they're calling 99 just the remains of Paula?


I don't think so---99L came from the south near Colombia according to the coordinates. Link
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Is the stuff they're calling 99 just the remains of Paula?
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Quoting AEKDB1990:
Almost looks like 99L is gonna get swept up to the NE and sheared.

Exactly
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Quoting lightningbolt73:
I've seen some storms do some strange things this time of year! Two storms that come to mind is Hurricane Juan in 1985 which hit the gulf coast and Hurricane Gordon in November 1994, which hit Florida several times.

True!
But I am not sure that this one (99L) has that kind of opportunity.

It will need to get a lot better organised than it is now, (and that is going to take several days), before any idea of a track with consensus can be worked out.
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scary scenario
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Quoting 7544:
hi looks like 99l has moved ne for a while what will make turn more north over cuba like most models are showing putting so fla back in play hmmm

All the hurricane models show it loop around
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When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored. During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced.
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959. 7544
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Link gfdl


cat 4 or 5 thru the yucatan hope a front dosent come down around that time and turn it ne like wilma did yeek
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Lenny was another strange one. Paloma and Omar were other strange storms that blew up and fell apart really fast.
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I've seen some storms do some strange things this time of year! Two storms that come to mind is Hurricane Juan in 1985 which hit the gulf coast and Hurricane Gordon in November 1994, which hit Florida several times.
Quoting pottery:

Where do you think it will end up going?
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Link gfdl


Already saw it. Exiting right? XD
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Wow that comment was awful.
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OK that solved. Could I please get a link to a working weather station.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
cockroaches


Ur racist comments wont go far on here. Leave
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1363
Link gfdl
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Too Bad

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Quoting sunlinepr:



What's your opinion; with this scenario, will it be able to cross that DA / shear and enter the Gom???
possibly, if it stalls, like it's now, then we will see the MJO come in and help it fight off the dry air. Shear on the other hand will likely impact it more, later on.
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Quoting pottery:

You think it will still be around in 5-10 days?

Maybe, or another wave will develop in its place, as the upper air pattern will keep pressures low over the Caribbean Sea for at least the next 10 days.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Now:



Even though Megi is a major Typhoon (:D), with winds of Category 4 strength, she doesn't look it. She just has the appearance of Igor when he was approaching Bermuda last month. I liked Megi a lot better when she had a small, compact eye :p


A lot of dry air in the inner core.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
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Quoting 7544:
hi looks like 99l has moved ne for a while what will make turn more north over cuba like most models are showing putting so fla back in play hmmm
NHC still says it is stationary.
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Looks like 99L is going to wait until tomorrow to do anything.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
cockroaches


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :O

I'm out of here now...
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My thinking is that tropical depression 19 will form early tomorrow morning, and will do a loop and head toward the yucatan channel as a hurricane.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes, the CONUS is part of what is loosely called "solid land". There were no "solid" land Hits this year.


There was Bonnie.

Trying to imagine Mexican land as a liquid or a gas. *laughs* :)
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940. 7544
hi looks like 99l has moved ne for a while what will make turn more north over cuba like most models are showing putting so fla back in play hmmm
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Category 5 hurricane headed for the USA!



Just wanted to make sure you were awake :)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IIRC Paula had to contend with more dry air than what 99L is dealing with and still managed to get fairly strong.


Well, just like someone commented when Paula was in the same scenario, The stronger the system gets, the most probability it has to move NW or to (break on through to the other side - The Doors)
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Now:



Even though Megi is a major Typhoon (:D), with winds of Category 4 strength, she doesn't look it. She just has the appearance of Igor when he was approaching Bermuda last month. I liked Megi a lot better when she had a small, compact eye :p
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I make since U just can't spel


I call Mexico solid land what do u call it
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1363
Huge Wave E Africa...
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Quoting kmanislander:
Anyway I've had my fill for tonight. See you all tomorrow.
Good night.
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Megi looks great on satellite but still has a lot of work to do on the core. Dvorak of T6.0/6.5 is kinda a joke, definitely doesn't look like anything near that intensity. It's still an incredible looking storm, hope it isn't able to really get it's act together, and stays away from HK.

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Quoting kmanislander:


No, I just checked about 5 other online reporting stations on the island. Without exception they were all showing East winds light around 8 mph. The Cayman Chillin station that is showing the NNW winds must have a problem.

OK, that makes sense now.
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Quoting pottery:

But you think the dry air is going to go away?


Yes, we should see a surge of moisture within the next couple of days.
Quoting sunlinepr:



What's your opinion; with this scenario, will it be able to cross that DA, shear and enter the Gom???


I really do not have much faith in 99L entering the Gulf of Mexico, but instead, being pulled NE before being forced to the W/SW towards the Yucatan and the Yucatan Peninsula.

But like I said, heck if i know. Thats just my opinion.
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Anyway I've had my fill for tonight. See you all tomorrow.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15845
Quoting pottery:

The Island could be experiencing some isolated down-drafts, which could account for gusts to 17-19 mph fanning out ?


No, I just checked about 5 other online reporting stations on the island. Without exception they were all showing East winds light around 8 mph. The Cayman Chillin station that is showing the NNW winds must have a problem.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15845
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting sunlinepr:



What's your opinion; with this scenario, will it be able to cross that DA, shear and enter the Gom???
IIRC Paula had to contend with more dry air than what 99L is dealing with and still managed to get fairly strong.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, there will be an upward MJO over the next 5-10 days.

You think it will still be around in 5-10 days?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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