99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.

Jeff Masters

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Hmmm..just like before Paula..where are all those insisting the season was over..Saw a few post yesterday jumping on people for saying this would become a storm.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

This is my last statement on the subject, as I don't want to bore people any further than I probably already have: ;-)

I appreciate your detailed and in-depth analysis. And you're correct, for the most part. However, trollish behavior is not a "difference of opinion". Lemme 'splain:

If I come on this site once and say, "I believe a Cat 5 hurricane is headed toward Miami!", that's okay; it was my opinion, it was just the one time, I was corrected, and we've all moved on. If, however, I come on here every hour for days on end and post the same thing just to get a rise out of people and/or just to confuse them, I would no longer simply be giving my opinion; I would, rather, be engaging in well-known trollish behavior (in fact, it's how the term troll originated), which is expressly forbidden by the rules of the blog, and which I would expect to have reported to the admins. That is, then, what I'll continue to do with Oracle28's incessant and boorish "XTRP" comments, and hope everyone else does the same.

That is, after all, how successful online communites work, no? ;-)


Lots of people repeatedly refer to the GFS GFDL models on a daily basis. You just don't like my posts. Using the XTRP model to analyze is no different, IMO
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, October 19th, with Video


Levi you are the MAN! they should pull you from school right now and let you run the NHC
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172. 7544
doesnt look like 99l willl be a td today maybe by tomorow imo
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Quoting pottery:
Afternoon all.
A nice squall just passing through here. Thunder with it, but no rain as yet . Seems to be raining heavy just north of here.

Post 152, that's looking Good!
Or Bad!
Or Something...


6 days out - that's bad. Come on - go west 99L.
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there needs to be a real storm FIRST before the models begin to agree somewhat. 99L has a way to go
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I love how you all jump on the model the produces the worst case path. The GFDL has been trash all season and now it is the model to follow? 99L will not make it to the Gulf. First off it has to develop before you can really trust any model.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I understand how some members feel about what other member's write. In a diverse community differences of opinion are to be expected.

This is my last statement on the subject, as I don't want to bore people any further than I probably already have: ;-)

I appreciate your detailed and in-depth analysis. And you're correct, for the most part. However, trollish behavior is not a "difference of opinion". Lemme 'splain:

If I come on this site once and say, "I believe a Cat 5 hurricane is headed toward Miami!", that's okay; it was my opinion, it was just the one time, I was corrected, and we've all moved on. If, however, I come on here every hour for days on end and post the same thing just to get a rise out of people and/or just to confuse them, I would no longer simply be giving my opinion; I would, rather, be engaging in well-known trollish behavior (in fact, it's how the term troll originated), which is expressly forbidden by the rules of the blog, and which I would expect to have reported to the admins. That is, then, what I'll continue to do with Oracle28's incessant and boorish "XTRP" comments, and hope everyone else does the same.

That is, after all, how successful online communites work, no? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13606
99L definitely has some rotation to it now. If you look at the sat loop (increase the speed of the loop too) you will see that it first starts to blow up some t-storms, then later it starts to spin. It is probably on the verge of a cc now, just barely. Good outflow...this thing will develop, definitely.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
What will the NHC have 99L at the 2:00 PM TWO
A. 40%
B. 50%
C. 60%
D. 70%
E. HIGHER %
d. 70%
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Quoting smartinwx:
it looks like the models agree to disagree on 99L.


True, currently they diverge over 180 degrees in direction. The XTRP splits the difference, if you watch over time, the models will come closer to the XTRP path, it takes time for it to occur, however.
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
Richard stationary....

Memories of Mitch!!


Does it make any difference that Mitch started as a tropic wave off the coast of Africa and this future storm was started at it's current location?
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
Richard stationary....

Memories of Mitch!!
Rhymes with "Rich!" Ah the good ol' days!
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it looks like the models agree to disagree on 99L.
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Afternoon all.
A nice squall just passing through here. Thunder with it, but no rain as yet . Seems to be raining heavy just north of here.

Post 152, that's looking Good!
Or Bad!
Or Something...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24650
thanks to the Reedzone.....
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Dayum!
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Goodmorning, Looks like 99L may want to get into the GOM. I saw last week where the stearing currents would be farther N this time compared to Paula. Hopefully wind shear will take care of a threat from 99L in the GOM.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6888
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Richard stationary....

Memories of Mitch!!
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, October 19th, with Video


Excellent analysis, thanks
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Quoting toddbizz:
Reedzone what are the chances of a SFL hit...just got boat back in water...I'm always watching...or anyone elses comments appreciated as well....thanks bloggers...


Wayy to early to tell right now, the system hasn't even formed yet. Might be stuck in the same spot for a week, just too early.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


It's a good thing you aren't saying that to me in person.


Go get 'em, Internet Tough Guy. You might want to look into not taking this stuff too seriously. Just a thought.
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XX/INV/99L
MARK
17.55N/82.93W
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Reedzone what are the chances of a SFL hit...just got boat back in water...I'm always watching...or anyone elses comments appreciated as well....thanks bloggers...
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I understand how some members feel about what other member's write. In a diverse community differences of opinion are to be expected.
.
.
Again, for all members...it's a good idea to read the Rules Of The Road, and "How To Ignore a Blogger". Certainly there's room for interpretation of the "rules". We still have the Supreme Court to interpret the Constitution. But WU admin does it's best and tries to make things easy to follow. From the WU site on flagging posts
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
12Z GFS just not doing much with 99L.


As it did with Paula, it may not do anything with 99L through it's whole lifespan.
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2 p.m. chances should be raised 50-60%
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, October 19th, with Video


Thanks Levi!

Awesome as usual!
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, October 19th, with Video


Thanks for another great tidbit Levi!
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Proverbs 23:9 ;P~
oh man, you reminded me of my never-sent follow up in WU mail... i think i might get back to that, it got a little lengthy and needed revision. get ready though, may be a seed for a fun philosophical journey :D
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not very impressive maybe-richard has a long way to go
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Quoting Seastep:


YW. Sending them was the prudent thing to do.


Agreed.
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Quoting rekkid:
My parents just moved to Angeles City back in September. It's in the southern section of Luzon, so Megi pasted to the North of them. But they reported a ton of rain, and lots of power outages. They were on skype and emails, so they've been spared. I'll try to see if they have local news reports on what kind of damage there is to the north. They moved from Daytona Beach, so they are used to hurricanes.


Thanks for the info.
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Quoting reedzone:
Just 5 years ago today....



ewww...ironically, hubby and I didnt' realize it hit on OUR anniverary til later ... hoping for a Happy 20th THIS year :)
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Thank you Seastep. It will be good to finally get some accurate data


YW. Sending them was the prudent thing to do.
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My parents just moved to Angeles City back in September. It's in the southern section of Luzon, so Megi pasted to the North of them. But they reported a ton of rain, and lots of power outages. They were on skype and emails, so they've been spared. I'll try to see if they have local news reports on what kind of damage there is to the north. They moved from Daytona Beach, so they are used to hurricanes.
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Quoting Minnemike:
even when it's a question asked by the same person over and over and over and over and over again, ad nauseam? i find this ridiculously stupid, and simply annoying at the very least when people quote this user which i have on ignore, either to give the answer, again, and again, and again, and again, ad nauseam, or to complain yet again at the ridiculousness of it (as i do now, again) and yet some actually quote this blogger to state their support of such humor. well, please stop quoting Oracle's xtrap bs. if this complaint seems excessive and unnecessary, believe me it pales in comparison to weeks worth of this person's one liner, and all the fish caught by the bait.


Proverbs 23:9 ;P~
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Quoting Seastep:


Useful data in about an hour and a half.


Thank you Seastep. It will be good to finally get some accurate data
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LOL. CIMSS convergence and divergence swapped locations. Not sure if I've ever seen that.
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Quoting reedzone:
Just 5 years ago today....




If one follows the pre-storm GFDL it could be a case De Ja Vous.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Shear might be a limiting factor, but with the exception of a thin sliver at the top, temps are warm enough throughout the GOM and Caribbean. Yes, temps are cooler than they were a month ago, but there's a big difference here between "cooler" and "cold":

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image



Sheer is 50-80 kt I'd say that's a pretty big limiting factor, also a rather lot of dry air too another limiting factor.
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Quoting FtMyersgal:

Anyone have any idea when can can expect to start receiving some initial date from recon?


Useful data in about an hour and a half.
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Giant Wind Tunnel Tests Full-Size Houses.

Link
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Kman, yes indeed.

Looks like their target position from yesterday was spot on as a starting point. 17.5N/83.5W.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.