99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FtMyersgal:

thank you.


But be on guard and watch 99L very closely.
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Quoting jasblt:
yes Levi has posted


Got a link 2 his tidbit
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Quoting jasblt:

Jeff, These are the same posters that are insisting and have been for a while that this hurricane season is officially over. You are correct, facts are facts. They will argue their point till they are out of breath..But will disappear when proven wrong.


+10000
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


He is wrong, it is over Western Cuba at that point

aiming at Fort Myers is just his way to rile up the blog, he is a troll and a wishcaster

thank you.
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yes Levi has posted
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Quoting Jax82:
TCHP


SST


Question: Does anyone know what that area of cold(er) water south of Mexico is? Is it runoff from (Matthew?) any ideas?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Just saw JB on Acuweather and Levi32's blog and they both seem to agree that the trough next week will kick this NE to FL. Say what you want but facts are facts and this ULL over California will cause the kick for Richard later this weekend.

Jeff, These are the same posters that are insisting and have been for a while that this hurricane season is officially over. You are correct, facts are facts. They will argue their point till they are out of breath..But will disappear when proven wrong.
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Quoting acyddrop:


Where do you see a consensus from any model? The GFDL keeps bringing this storm the same way around now (12Z), because it's picking up on the front moving out. The trough digs back in later and steers it back to the west. The HWRF and CMC both see this pattern. Neither of which develop it into a cat 3 by the way. All I get out of the models personally is there will be a storm. Also don't forget the sheer over that whole area is really high AND the storm would weaken fairly significantly over that portion of Cuba if the GFDL model was correct. Even if would be Richard danced along the coast it would interact with land and weaken that way. Stop trying to frighten people IMO.


I agree with you mostly, except that part of Cuba would not weaken a storm that much at all and that could make a big difference. Also from what I have seen, shear will not be that bad

It starts out as hostile over Florida and the Straits, but at 120 hours it begins to weaken quite a bit, that being said shear looks fairly high still for a hurricane to stay a formidable one when it enters the Gulf

Still a long way away though
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Just saw JB on Acuweather and Levi32's blog and they both seem to agree that the trough next week will kick this NE to FL. Say what you want but facts are facts and this ULL over California will cause the kick for Richard later this weekend.


Jeff, has Levi posted today.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Just saw JB on Acuweather and Levi32's blog and they both seem to agree that the trough next week will kick this NE to FL. Say what you want but facts are facts and this ULL over California will cause the kick for Richard later this weekend.


But again this is almost a week away. Yes this is a good possibility that this will happen but things can and will change. We will know more towards the end of the week.
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It looks like a big pattern change is coming. The typical fall spike in Caribbean activity for October has been somewhat muted this year, so this may be the late seasonal change, usually seen. It's hard to say, but no question the pattern is about to make a big change, judging from what is coming down the pike. It's less zonal, which might allow a window of opportunity for something to sneak into the southern GOM. Not wishcasting ... rather optimistically hopeful for something more interesting than this blah October has delivered so far.

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261. Jax82
TCHP


SST
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Quoting Jeff9641:


He's actually right because a trough will be entering the C Gulf Coast at the time and a hard NE turn will occur similar to Charley. Levi32 if you watched his tidbit explains all of this. I've been explaing this as well since yesterday and I'm tired of repeating myself. Bottline this ULL in California could be problems for FL inregards to kicking this out to the NE and yes FL Looks to be in trouble come Monday or Tuesday next week.


Sorry but it seems that he is a little overexaggerant about the chances of richard hitting FL. He keeps repeating what he said earlier. Say it once and lets move on.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


He's actually right because a trough will be entering the C Gulf Coast at the time and a hard NE turn will occur similar to Charley. Levi32 if you watched his tidbit explains all of this. I've been explaing this as well since yesterday and I'm tired of repeating myself. Bottline this ULL in California could be problems for FL inregards to kicking this out to the NE and yes FL Looks to be in trouble come Monday or Tuesday next week.


Agree
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Link please


He is wrong, it is over Western Cuba at that point

aiming at Fort Myers is just his way to rile up the blog, he is a troll and a wishcaster
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Quoting FLstormwarning:
There seems to be model consensus building now for a FL landfall at 180 hours to 196 hours.


Where do you see a consensus from any model? The GFDL keeps bringing this storm the same way around now (12Z), because it's picking up on the front moving out. The trough digs back in later and steers it back to the west. The HWRF and CMC both see this pattern. Neither of which develop it into a cat 3 by the way. All I get out of the models personally is there will be a storm. Also don't forget the sheer over that whole area is really high AND the storm would weaken fairly significantly over that portion of Cuba if the GFDL model was correct. Even if would be Richard danced along the coast it would interact with land and weaken that way. Stop trying to frighten people IMO.
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Please put FLstormwarning on ignore, he is JFV and is trying to stir up some trouble, which is one of the reasons why this blog has gone downhill and many have left.
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250. Jax82
Today
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Quoting stillwaiting:
my local sunset last night and a impressive one at that imo!!!


Beautiful pic.
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Quoting FLstormwarning:


A cat 2 hit in mid November on the FL panhandle in 1985.


Is a Cat 2 a major? He/she said "major".
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Quoting FLstormwarning:
YIKES!

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest99l.2010101912/invest99l.2010101912_ anim.html#pic ture


What supporting statement do you have that backs up your comment and that image that shows Richard near cuba.
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my local sunset last night and a impressive one at that imo!!!
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244. flsky
Has anyone heard anything from N Car? I thought sure a federal disaster would be declared, but I never heard anything.
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Quoting FLstormwarning:
Models do seem to becoming into better agreement and FL better watchout especially Tampa to the Keys. The GFDL is aimed at Fort Myers on this run for a cat 2 or 3 at landfall at 180 hours.
I guess I better get my shutters up...NOT!!! I need to see the storm first LOL
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26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph)

Seems to be the peak SFMR winds so far and are numerous.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting robert88:


LOL...seriously??? There is no model consensus at this time aiming at FL.


Just ignore him, he's JFV.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Be careful of transgressing the spamming rule.
Thanks I will.
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Quoting FLstormwarning:
Looks like fun and games early next week for FL. If you need to get hurricane supplies well I would get them just in case if I live in C and S FL.


LOL...seriously??? There is no model consensus at this time aiming at FL.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Models do seem to becoming into better agreement and FL better watchout especially Tampa to the Keys. The GFDL is aimed at Fort Myers on this run for a cat 2 or 3 at landfall at 180 hours.


Link please
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Quoting Bordonaro:
"Variably cloudy skies break into brilliant Sunshine-Afternoon showers still possible in Ft. Worth" latest article published for the Ft Worth Examiner Link.

I have been ranked # 1 by the Forth Worth Weather Examiner and I always feature links for WU, please stop by and sign up for a free e-mail weather update. Thanks.


Be careful of transgressing the spamming rule.
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18:00:00Z 18.767N 84.617W 565.2 mb
(~ 16.69 inHg) 4,882 meters
(~ 16,017 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg)
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
HH descending though 6000 feet now. Data starting to roll in
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I think we may have a TD by tomorrow, likely by 5pm.
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Love this site
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Quoting kmanislander:
This ASCAT swath from 14:56 this morning shows nothing but confusion at the surface. If the HH doesn't find something more impressive than this then 50% is generous for 99L at this time.



To tell ya the truth, it brings a little light to what I am seeing on Sat ATM.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
228. JRRP
Link
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Ah I get it. You are using GFDL and HWRF probably, two models that are built to help track storms AFTER they form.
....its basically tracking a thunderstorm out 180 hrs,lol....
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This ASCAT swath from 14:56 this morning shows nothing but confusion at the surface. If the HH doesn't find something more impressive than this then 50% is generous for 99L at this time.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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