99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:

469. Bordonaro


See my post 426. :)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
99L just bumped up from 50% to 70% chance.
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Have to see if the convection organizes tonight.
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Quoting kwgirl:
I agree with you. I don't see any dry air, but it sure looks like a lot of shear is ripping the tops off the clouds. Go Shear!


there is dry air but if its up to 70% i eat crow... ooopsie!!! go shear!!! I got Wilma Whipped once and once was enough
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HH are finding plenty of winds, but no real consolidated area of low pressure. Seems to still be quite broad.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
I say we have a TD at 11.
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Quoting Seastep:


Or 8pm. ;)

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Latest, Winds Up.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:12:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°27'N 83°29'W (17.45N 83.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 188 miles (303 km) to the SW (227°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 26kts (From the E at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 308m (1,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:50:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NNE (27°) from the flight level center
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Where's that 30% Guy?
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
Convection popped around 1915Z, so maybe not long enough. That would be about 5hrs at 8pm.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SPECIAL TWO

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.
Not surprised. The convective organization is the only thing that is holding this system from becoming 19L.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
99L up to 70%.

Might get a TD by 11 tonight, or 5am tomorrow.


Or 8pm. ;)

If the convection that popped over the center continues to deepen and expand, that would be long enough, I believe.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting aspectre:
In the wake of the HurricaneHunter's report, NHC has reevaluated&revised the 19Oct 12am-06pmGMT ATCF coordinates yet again
Invest 99L
17Oct 06pmGMT - 12.8n80.4w - 20knots - 1009mb - ATCF*11.6n78.5w*12.3n79.9w*12.5n80.1w
18Oct 12amGMT - 13.3n81.0w - 20knots - 1010mb - *12.6n80.6w*13.1n81.0w*13.4n81.1w*13.4n81.0w
18Oct 06amGMT - 13.7n81.4w - 20knots - 1010mb - ATCF*14.0n81.8w*14.3n81.8w*13.8n81.5w
18Oct 12pmGMT - 14.1n81.8w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.1n82.5w*15.0n82.4w*14.1n81.9w
18Oct 06pmGMT - 14.6n82.3w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.7n83.2w*14.5n82.2w
19Oct 12amGMT - 15.1n82.7w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.0n82.6w
19Oct 12amGMT - 15.3n82.8w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.0n82.6w*15.1n82.7w
19Oct 06amGMT - 16.0n83.1w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.7n83.0w*1008mb*15.8n82.9w
19Oct 12pmGMT - 16.7n83.3w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*16.5n83.3w*1008mb*16.5n83.0w
19Oct 06pmGMT - 17.4n83.4w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF*17.0n83.0w
20Oct 12amGMT - w - knots - 1009mb - ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
20knots=~37km/h _ 25knots=46.3km/h _ 30knots=55.6km/h

Copy&paste 12.8n80.4w, 13.3n81.0w, 13.7n81.4w, 14.1n81.8w, 14.6n82.3w-15.3n82.8w, 15.3n82.8w-16.0n83.1w, 16.0n83.1w-16.7n83.3w, 16.7n83.3w-17.4n83.4w, 17.4n83.4w-, ctm, cyo into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
99L up to 70%.

Might get a TD by 11 tonight, or 5am tomorrow.
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
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Quoting kwgirl:
Only took you 4 months?!! My house had 6 inches of water throughout and it took a year to rebuild.


That's terrible. Sorry to hear that. While at the hotel, they actually had people still staying there since Frances and Jeanne.
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Hello every one! I´m brand new here and not a weather literate, just a regular person learning from all of you. I live in Cancun, Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, and I was looking to the coments of today´s 5th aniversary of Willma... not a pleasent memory for must of the people that live here (it was Category 4, but it felt like 5 for over 2 days!!)... anyway, I follow you almost since then (although I suscribed myself to the blog a month ago, before I was just reading). Today here is sunny, yesterday little rain... extrange weather, but is not as warm as it was back on 2005, that kind of give me some peeace... Thank you for let me include my coment.
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The Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft investigating 99L has released several vortex messages. This almost always signifies that a tropical cyclone has developed.

99L still lacks organized deep convection so I doubt that the system has achieved tropical depression/storm status. This is the only impediment however since Recon has found a closed surface circulation.

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SPECIAL TWO

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


are you sure it's "yanking" cloud tops or is that just venting?


secondly, and i am no expert, but i disagree with your appraisal of this system. according to this noaa w.v. loop i dont see any intrusion of dry air from the west. here is the loop i am referencing--

Link


are you seeing something i am not?
I agree with you. I don't see any dry air, but it sure looks like a lot of shear is ripping the tops off the clouds. Go Shear!
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NEW: In the wake of the HurricaneHunter's report, NHC has reevaluated&revised
the 19Oct 12am-06pmGMT ATCF coordinates yet again
Invest 99L
17Oct 06pmGMT - 12.8n80.4w - 20knots - 1009mb - ATCF*11.6n78.5w*12.3n79.9w*12.5n80.1w
18Oct 12amGMT - 13.3n81.0w - 20knots - 1010mb - *12.6n80.6w*13.1n81.0w*13.4n81.1w*13.4n81.0w
18Oct 06amGMT - 13.7n81.4w - 20knots - 1010mb - ATCF*14.0n81.8w*14.3n81.8w*13.8n81.5w
18Oct 12pmGMT - 14.1n81.8w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.1n82.5w*15.0n82.4w*14.1n81.9w
18Oct 06pmGMT - 14.6n82.3w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.7n83.2w*14.5n82.2w
19Oct 12amGMT - 15.3n82.8w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.0n82.6w*15.1n82.7w
19Oct 06amGMT - 16.0n83.1w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.7n83.0w*1008mb*15.8n82.9w
19Oct 12pmGMT - 16.7n83.3w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*16.5n83.3w*1008mb*16.5n83.0w
19Oct 06pmGMT - 17.4n83.4w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.0n83.0w*1009mb
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
20knots=~37km/h _ 25knots=46.3km/h _ 30knots=~55.6km/h

Copy&paste 12.8n80.4w, 13.3n81.0w, 13.7n81.4w, 14.1n81.8w, 14.6n82.3w-15.3n82.8w, 15.3n82.8w-16.0n83.1w, 16.0n83.1w-16.7n83.3w, 16.7n83.3w-17.4n83.4w, ctm, cyo into the GreatCircleMapper for a NEW look at the last 24^hours
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
look at the latest shear intensity from wisc.edu

Link

with the circle of small wind shear pockets to the north, south, east, and west of 99L I may tend to buy into the trend of sending this storm in loop-de-loops for a few hours or days....that could lead to deeper intensification before this gets eventually goes polar.


it may be the case that the wind shear pockets surrounding 99L may not interfere with development but may be enough of an influence to keep this thing in the general location it is for an extended duration.
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look at the latest shear intensity from wisc.edu

Link

with the circle of small wind shear pockets to the north, south, east, and west of 99L I may tend to buy into the trend of sending this storm in loop-de-loops for a few hours or days....that could lead to deeper intensification before this gets eventually goes polar.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 17:07:55 N Lon : 117:24:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 921.4mb/122.2kt


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RAW ADT on Megi is up to 7.1.
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 7.1 7.1

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should be definity high chance now needs alittle bit more convection to classify this getting real close
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Quoting poknsnok:
watch the loop kids. the outflow boundary from the collapsing TS flowing east to west due to dry air and the cloud tops already being yanked northeast over FL due to the high shear just north

30%


are you sure it's "yanking" cloud tops or is that just venting?


secondly, and i am no expert, but i disagree with your appraisal of this system. according to this noaa w.v. loop i dont see any intrusion of dry air from the west. here is the loop i am referencing--

Link


are you seeing something i am not?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I can relate. I lost my entire roof during Wilma. Had to gut the entire house. Lived in a hotel for four months.
Only took you 4 months?!! My house had 6 inches of water throughout and it took a year to rebuild.
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watch the loop kids. the outflow boundary from the collapsing TS flowing east to west due to dry air and the cloud tops already being yanked northeast over FL due to the high shear just north

30%
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No renumber

No rename

No dice.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Based upon the Hurricane Hunter data, I would suspect that the National Hurricane Center would begin issuing advisories on TD 17 (may be wrong about the number) at 5PM. Will be interested to see the forecast cone with the computer models going in all directions.


TD 19*. And yea, I would think so.. but I doubt it, as we have yet to see a renumber.
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Not the most organized system in the world..

Needs a little more convection.
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Based upon the Hurricane Hunter data, I would suspect that the National Hurricane Center would begin issuing advisories on TD 17 (may be wrong about the number) at 5PM. Will be interested to see the forecast cone with the computer models going in all directions.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
They might issue a special TWO saying TD.. or maybe TS Richard judging by the recon.

Heck, they released a Vortex message incase anyone missed.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:09:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 83°29'W (17.3833N 83.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 191 miles (308 km) to the SW (226°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 20kts (From the ESE at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 302m (991ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph) in the north quadrant at 18:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:15:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
BEST WINDSHIFT CENTER WAS AT 19:05:50Z AT 17 31N 83 35W


That's a little old, we should have a new one soon.


Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 15

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 19:50Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.2N 82.9W
Location: 125 miles (201 km) to the SW (232°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 100° at 26 knots (From the E at ~ 29.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1011 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 80° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 33 knots (~ 38.0mph)
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
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watch for a special two
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Megi exploding... again.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

That's the upwelling caused by a recent Tehuano Event, a wind phenomenon (the Tehuantepecer) that can drop SSTs in the area by up to 10.C in a single day...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Thanks Neapolitan.
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They might issue a special TWO saying TD.. or maybe TS Richard judging by the recon.

Heck, they released a Vortex message incase anyone missed.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:09:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 83°29'W (17.3833N 83.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 191 miles (308 km) to the SW (226°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 20kts (From the ESE at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 302m (991ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph) in the north quadrant at 18:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:15:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
BEST WINDSHIFT CENTER WAS AT 19:05:50Z AT 17 31N 83 35W
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Wilma was an absolute nightmare here.

To this day im not sure if my cabana was destroyed by a tornado or an extremely strong gust. Absolutely nothing left of it...
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Quoting mcluvincane:


I see the kids are home from school


Ill bet you a nickle
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19/1745 UTC 16.7N 82.9W TOO WEAK 99L

too far south hh found the center more north then that coordinates incorrect
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Quoting oceanblues32:
was in westpalm beach florida thru wilma and the back end was worse then the front lost two big avocado trees my screened in back patio and my roof in the family room need i say more.....what are they saying about this 99l possibly hitting southwest florida would it come thru to the east coast or no...


I can relate. I lost my entire roof during Wilma. Had to gut the entire house. Lived in a hotel for four months.
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Quoting Dakster:


ROFLMAO --

All the bets are that this is a storm by tomorrow morning?


I believe that is most probable. I'd say 80%.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Joe B


"TUESDAY NOON

THE GFDL FROM HELLO OPERATOR GIVE ME NUMBER 9.

The Big Dog decided to fetch the 00z GFDL, obviously overdone but fun with the ACE elevating Category 4 getting ready to take a big bite out of the northeast Yucatan. However, the overall track idea and the threat of feedback development that could go crazy is on the table."
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Quoting mcluvincane:


I see the kids are home from school


ROFLMAO --

All the bets are that this is a storm by tomorrow morning?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Probably not at 5pm.

ATCF

FNMOC NAVY


Don't disagree. Mainly because not enough time of persistent convection. Will only have been a couple hours.

Most definitely red, imo.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Pressure is dropping quite rapidly throughout this mission.

20:14:00Z 17.367N 83.517W 976.1 mb
(~ 28.82 inHg) 291 meters
(~ 955 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg)
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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