99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
When I look over my shoulder,What do you think I see ?Some other cat looking over His shoulder at me And he's strange, sure he's strange.You've got to pick up every stitch,You've got to pick up every stitch,Beatniks are out to make it rich,Oh no, must be the season of the witch,Must be the season of the witch, yeah,Must be the season of the witch.You've got to pick up every stitch,The rabbits running in the ditch,Beatniks are out to make it rich,Oh no, must be the season of the witch,Must be the season of the witch,Must be the season of the witch
TROLL
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
When I look over my shoulder,What do you think I see ?Some other cat looking over His shoulder at me And he's strange, sure he's strange.You've got to pick up every stitch,You've got to pick up every stitch,Beatniks are out to make it rich,Oh no, must be the season of the witch,Must be the season of the witch, yeah,Must be the season of the witch.You've got to pick up every stitch,The rabbits running in the ditch,Beatniks are out to make it rich,Oh no, must be the season of the witch,Must be the season of the witch,Must be the season of the witch


Are you talking about Christine O'Donnell? I notice she does twitch her nose a lot.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't think that was him either because the spelling and the way FLstormwarning phrased things did not sound like him.


I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all not JFV.

I am the eggman, they are the eggmen.
I am the walrus, go,go,go, JFV
Boy, you been a naughty little JFV. you let Taz down.
I am the eggman, they are the eggmen.
I am the walrus, goo goo g'joob.

Sitting in an dark room waiting for the NHC.

Expert textpert choking smokers,
Don't you thing JFV laughs at you?



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Quoting stormpetrol:
TD#19 at 8pm I suspect!
mmmmmmmm, possible!
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Quoting DDR:
Southern california getting heavy rain,is that odd or what,given that La nina is present?

VERY! Normally drought conditions are "king" during a La Nina event for Southern CA and the SE US.
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TD#19 at 8pm I suspect!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
619. DDR
Southern california getting heavy rain,is that odd or what,given that La nina is present?
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The 2010 season may be remembered for

Balp watching

as much as Blob watching.

BALP = Broad Area of Low Pressure
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look close you will see a pinhole eye...closer..closer....closer DANG you missed it!!!!!!!
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Quoting pilotguy1:


This is my opinion of most of the models outside of 72 hours.


You mean like this model? I hear ya!

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
When I look out my window,Many sights to see.And when I look in my window,So many different people to be That it's strange, so strange.You've got to pick up every stitch,You've got to pick up every stitch,You've got to pick up every stitch,Mm, must be the season of the witch,Must be the season of the witch, yeah,Must be the season of the witch


They told us that stuff had after-effects. Guess they were right. Are you O.K., or just reminiscing? LOL
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613. DDR
Good evening all
I see 99l going steady
Showers all day long in northern Trinidad,just under an inch,feels good to the rains back on a daily basis here.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Tis, we'll see if it makes it. I still have my doubt's this one is going to make anything out of itself.



I think it will. The models have done a remarkably poor job on 99L and Paula.
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this blog cracks me up at times especially when i had a bad day.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
HA HA HA HOHO HOHO HAHA ROFLMAO
You are worrying me now. Rain getting to you or what ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
You have to agree that the GFS models have the best indication as to where 99L will go!!!!! No doubt in my mind, what little there is left of it.

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Quoting tropicfreak:


I thought JFV was FLstormwarning.
I don't think that was him either because the spelling and the way FLstormwarning phrased things did not sound like him.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
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HA HA HA HOHO HOHO HAHA ROFLMAO
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Good Evening (at least here it is...). 99L looks like a TD now.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
relax JFV it not coming your way anyway


I thought JFV was FLstormwarning.
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Quoting pilotguy1:

Jst like Taz. Hehehehehehe.
Taz likes the pinehole eyes.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't worry, everyone is well aware when IT IS JFV. He cannot hide or disguise himself at all. We all know teh way he spells.
LMAO
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

lol u got me tricked
Don't worry, everyone is well aware when IT IS JFV. He cannot hide or disguise himself at all. We all know teh way he spells.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Link
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only intensity is off a bit
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes :O)
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
My last Cuba's radar post was out....
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its doing exactly what gfdl predicted in earlier runs.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Keeps up what?


Organizing? Certainly looks like its well on its way.

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Quoting scott39:
is it D-Min for 99L right now?

Yes :O)
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is it D-Min for 99L right now?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
oooh boy.........(shaking head)
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just hope it hurry up and get outa my nieghborhood
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99l seems to be moving pretty fast for a system that's supposed to be stalling
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When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.