99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.

Jeff Masters

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Invest 99L
18Oct 12amGMT - 13.3n81.0w - 20knots - 1010mb - *12.6n80.6w*13.1n81.0w*13.4n81.1w*13.4n81.0w
18Oct 06amGMT - 13.7n81.4w - 20knots - 1010mb - ATCF*14.0n81.8w*14.3n81.8w*13.8n81.5w
18Oct 12pmGMT - 14.1n81.8w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.1n82.5w*15.0n82.4w*14.1n81.9w
18Oct 06pmGMT - 14.6n82.3w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.7n83.2w*14.5n82.2w
19Oct 12amGMT - 15.3n82.8w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.0n82.6w*15.1n82.7w
19Oct 06amGMT - 16.0n83.1w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.7n83.0w*1008mb*15.8n82.9w
19Oct 12pmGMT - 16.7n83.3w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*16.5n83.3w*1008mb*16.5n83.0w
19Oct 06pmGMT - 17.4n83.4w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.0n83.0w*1009mb
20Oct 12amGMT - 17.6n83.4w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
20knots=~37km/h _ 25knots=46.3km/h _ 30knots=~55.6km/h

Copy&paste 13.3n81.0w, 13.7n81.4w, 14.1n81.8w, 14.6n82.3w, 15.3n82.8w-16.0n83.1w, 16.0n83.1w-16.7n83.3w, 16.7n83.3w-17.4n83.4w, 17.4n83.4w-17.6n83.4w, ctm, cyo into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


However, the posted steering would favor a track very similar to the GFDL, am I wrong?


The GFDL run is over a much longer time frame than the steering I just posted which is a short term 3 hour map. My point was that until the GFDL has a classified system to run with it is very unreliable.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Pottery

50 or 60 % tops right now IMO

Yeah.
50% chance of TS in 48 hrs would be my choice.
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Quoting shikori:


so it still looks pathetic. I feel like giving it a 40% just by looking at it. The convection is going nowhere at this point and until it does, I stand my ground.

Within 24 hours , I think we'll all be singing a different tune, with a potentially dangerous systems in our neck of the woods, not an alarmist, just a realist on what I've seen happen before! Hopefully I'm wrong, 2 nights of successive crow is enough for me, but 3 wouldn't hurt if I'm wrong again , once we keep safe!
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Quoting pottery:
Good evening all.
Looking at 99L...
the surrounding air is dryer than it needs to be for improvement.
Seems to be pulling in some of that right now too.
It is virtually stationary, and any real northern movement exposes it to shear, big time.
I think that 70% chance of this becoming a TS in 48 hrs is aggressive right now.

(please note, that my last forecast was 100% wrong LOL)


Hi Pottery

50 or 60 % tops right now IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting kmanislander:


First of all the GFDL does not perform well on a system that has not yet formed so discount that for now. Current steering calls for weak flow in the NW Caribbean which would promote very slow motion or a stall such as we are seeing now.

If it does get to Cuba the conditions North of there are so hostile that not much would remain of it unless we get a rapid fall of in the shear from the sub tropical jet and that is unlikely this late in the season with conditions such as they are.

Here is the updated steering



However, the posted steering would favor a track very similar to the GFDL, am I wrong?
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Odds are good 99L or "future "R" named storm" will most likely not move toward TX.

The sub-tropical jet is near 30 N latitude and winds speeds are over 40 KTS.



He or it will get pushed away from TX!


There is and has always been very little chance of this system ever getting anywhere near Texas. It is never impossible, of course but extremely unlikely.

The real question is how much chance does this potential cyclone have of ever hitting anywhere in the US? And the question with that 40kts. of shear is will it tear 99l or possible future "Richard" apart if he/it goes north into the Gulf?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night.


See you tomorrow
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Good evening all.
Looking at 99L...
the surrounding air is dryer than it needs to be for improvement.
Seems to be pulling in some of that right now too.
It is virtually stationary, and any real northern movement exposes it to shear, big time.
I think that 70% chance of this becoming a TS in 48 hrs is aggressive right now.

(please note, that my last forecast was 100% wrong LOL)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks KMAN. I was thinking that if the storms does develop it will be hard to forcast track till its fully developed as the fronts are kinda hit and miss. The sheer will relax as the fronts dive in and out so its a coin toss right now...
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Quoting Seastep:
Quite a change in the 00Z 925mb vorticity. Was 80 and much tighter near the center three hours ago.



See my post 811
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting weatherlover94:
well we have to wait and see what happens tonight and see how strong this thing gets tomorrow
weatherlover94 signing off good night all
Good night.
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well we have to wait and see what happens tonight and see how strong this thing gets tomorrow
weatherlover94 signing off good night all
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Updated vort map. Looking much better at the 5000 foot level but not colocated with the surface low. In essence, not vertically stacked.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Conditions at 42056 as of
(7:50 pm CDT on 10/19/2010)
0050 GMT on 10/20/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.0 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 82 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 81.0 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Dry air getting to it....



That was one of the problems I saw for 99L this morning during the next 24 to 48 hours. It could get better later in the week.
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Quite a change in the 00Z 925mb vorticity. Was 80 and much tighter near the center three hours ago.

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, it would quickly get shot NE ward and be ripped to shreds!


Ah ok. Thanks. Haven't looked at the shear/steering maps lately. Weather has been just gorgeous. Other than the drought and fire danger doing ok here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherlover94:


thats what happened with Paula and then it bursted into a cat 2 hurricane


Different time and different conditions. On the positive side 99L is showing convection over the center but the cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours and the extent of the aerial coverage is very meager. That is not the stuff that TDs are made of and the NHC will not upgrade based upon a satellite presentation that is a lot poorer now than earlier this afternoon.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
99L looks better than some TS I've seen, albeit weak, probably a 30mph TD at best, problem is computer models don't have a good handle on the direction or movement, until some concensus take place among the models on direction, IMO no upgrade! Personally if I was an expert at the NHC I wouldn't want to do the cone of uncertainity for 99L, JMO.
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803. IKE
Dry air getting to it....

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Sounds good to me. :) I noticed the 12z CMC and NOGAP had it coming into the SW GOM via the Yucatan but then killed it before it could make landfall. I'm assuming that would be 40kts of shear should it head this way?

Yes, it would quickly get shot NE ward and be ripped to shreds!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
pressure down to 1008 mb on 99L
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Quoting kmanislander:
No TD at 11 or 5 am tomorrow IMO.

At least 24 hours the way it is looking now. I would not be surprised to see the 70% come down to 60 or 50 at 11.


thats what happened with Paula and then it bursted into a cat 2 hurricane
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Quoting weatherlover94:


http://tc.met.psu.edu/

sorry it took so long

Here is the above address in link form Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Odds are good 99L or "future "R" named storm" will most likely not move toward TX.

The sub-tropical jet is near 30 N latitude and winds speeds are over 40 KTS.



He or it will get pushed away from TX!


Sounds good to me. :) I noticed the 12z CMC and NOGAP had it coming into the SW GOM via the Yucatan but then killed it before it could make landfall. I'm assuming that would be 40kts of shear should it head this way?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No TD at 11 or 5 am tomorrow IMO.

At least 24 hours the way it is looking now. I would not be surprised to see the 70% come down to 60 or 50 at 11.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting shikori:


could you post a link


http://tc.met.psu.edu/

sorry it took so long
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
link to GFDL 99L
Link
That would be really bad for the Caymans if that model panned out..
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Quoting afj3:
Evening everyone!
I was away from my computer for a huge swathe of the day and evening and came back to see that little red circle on the NHC site (no longer yellow or orange). What happened? South Florida in the clear?


its should be red
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Herbertsbox:
Evening all. As luck would have it, I am scheduled to be in Texas next Tuesday through Sunday. The spider models have me a bit concerned. What's more, not just Texas, but Galveston. Any words of wisdom or comfort for yours truly?

TIA


Odds are good 99L or "future "R" named storm" will most likely not move toward TX.

The sub-tropical jet is near 30 N latitude and winds speeds are over 40 KTS.



He or it will get pushed away from TX!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Good evening all. Coming out of my extended lurk for a bit. Megi is a nightmare. And I feel very fortunate our basin has escaped something like that this year. As for 99l, seems everyone is in a wait and see pattern for now. It's just been that kind of year. Don't know if this discussion has been posted or not. Reading it I'll agree with the NHC that the NW Caribbean should be paying attention to this for now. After that no one knows.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010 Link

FARTHER EAST...THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INITIALIZE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN/ GREATER ANTILLES. LIFTING OVER THIS AXIS...THE MODELS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL THEN
SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 48-60
HRS...TO THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HRS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FLATTENING THIS AXIS WHILE DISPLACING IT
SOUTH. AT 500 HPA THE RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO CELLS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED ONE OVER MEXICO/WESTERN GULF AND A NEW ONE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

AT LOW LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
CELLS BUILDING/TRAINING ACROSS JAMAICA-CAYMAN ISLANDS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAKE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS SYSTEM...AS
THEY TRY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SO THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST.
ALSO NOTE THAT THE NHC IS EVALUATING
THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND
THEY WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS IT WILL SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH MAXIMA TO SURGE TO
35-70MM/DAY BETWEEN 36-72 HRS. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH 36
HRS...TO DECREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY THROUGH 48-72 HRS. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CUBA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 24 HRS. BY 24-48 HRS THE MAXIMA
WILL INCREASE TO 35-70MM/DAY.



There you have it, weak steering aloft leading to uncertainty with the models.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting Chicklit:
WOW! Megi has grown in size since it weakened while passing over Luzon, but thats what happens to most intense hurricanes once they weaken and regain strength , then tend to grow in size making them much more extremely dangerous for the next port of call!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
99l has a lot working against it folks, all this TD at 11 stuff is very very premature
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
Good evening all. Coming out of my extended lurk for a bit. Megi is a nightmare. And I feel very fortunate our basin has escaped something like that this year. As for 99l, seems everyone is in a wait and see pattern for now. It's just been that kind of year. Don't know if this discussion has been posted or not. Reading it I'll agree with the NHC that the NW Caribbean should be paying attention to this for now. After that no one knows.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010 Link

FARTHER EAST...THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INITIALIZE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN/ GREATER ANTILLES. LIFTING OVER THIS AXIS...THE MODELS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL THEN
SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 48-60
HRS...TO THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HRS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FLATTENING THIS AXIS WHILE DISPLACING IT
SOUTH. AT 500 HPA THE RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO CELLS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED ONE OVER MEXICO/WESTERN GULF AND A NEW ONE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

AT LOW LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
CELLS BUILDING/TRAINING ACROSS JAMAICA-CAYMAN ISLANDS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAKE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS SYSTEM...AS
THEY TRY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SO THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST.
ALSO NOTE THAT THE NHC IS EVALUATING
THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND
THEY WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS IT WILL SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH MAXIMA TO SURGE TO
35-70MM/DAY BETWEEN 36-72 HRS. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH 36
HRS...TO DECREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY THROUGH 48-72 HRS. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CUBA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 24 HRS. BY 24-48 HRS THE MAXIMA
WILL INCREASE TO 35-70MM/DAY.

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Quoting kmanislander:


Who is Michael ??
. Michael is richards middle name
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786. txjac
Awesome looking storm Chicklit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all. As luck would have it, I am scheduled to be in Texas next Tuesday through Sunday. The spider models have me a bit concerned. What's more, not just Texas, but Galveston. Any words of wisdom or comfort for yours truly?

TIA
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Quoting rareaire:
Hey Kman - gfdl swells 99l up then take it to cuba but appears to roll it around the coast headed ne. What is your opinion on track ifit does swell up as shown?


First of all the GFDL does not perform well on a system that has not yet formed so discount that for now. Current steering calls for weak flow in the NW Caribbean which would promote very slow motion or a stall such as we are seeing now.

If it does get to Cuba the conditions North of there are so hostile that not much would remain of it unless we get a rapid fall of in the shear from the sub tropical jet and that is unlikely this late in the season with conditions such as they are.

Here is the updated steering

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
LOL!
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I think 99L is organizing slowly but surely!
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780. afj3
Quoting txjac:
Afj3 ...I understood ...kind of sounds like something I would write with all the technical terms and such ...lol

You did know what I mean??? Thank God. That was embarrassing. Plus my Facebook postings have been off all day. I need to lay off the coffee and get some sleep....
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99l has flopped in the last 8hrs,interesting to see if it keeps its easterly drift overnight and can turn things around for diernal max....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
At 72 hrs. Megi is predicted to make landfall at 22.9N / 116E with 95 knot wind speeds

Hong Kong is at 20N / 114E
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777. txjac
Afj3 ...I understood ...kind of sounds like something I would write with all the technical terms and such ...lol
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Quoting afj3:

Sorry. I am not making any sense at all...

Over the next few days, the upward MJO motion will moisten the Caribbean :O)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
775. afj3
Quoting afj3:

Will that moving air ahead of that dry air move it east or will that thing over those other states let it move north and to that other place?

Sorry. I am not making any sense at all...
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