September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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304. amd
Megi truly is an intense system.

Recon just measured flight level winds of 148 kts with SFMR surface winds of 127 kts (Near 150 mph).

Pressure has fallen to 910 mb (estimated).





Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
18z GFS no longer develops the Caribbean AOI.

Discount this run unless we get 2 successive runs indicating that the GFS is no longer on board.
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Intense.
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WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Really now? Looks to me its drifting.
Yeah, plain drifting motion is what I see.
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Quoting robert88:
Looks like that disturbance in the S Caribbean is headed for CA. Link


Really now? Looks to me its drifting.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I find it decreasingly funny and increasingly irritating that some try to claim there's a supposed quid pro quo or balance involved here, when that's not so. AGW theorists can quote from volumes and volumes of academic and multi-governmental, multi-discipline scientific literature to bolster their beliefs, while contrarians, lacking any such actual science to support their claims, continually dip into articles on the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored disinformation written by the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored authors publishing in the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored websites or periodicals. Do contrarians ever think about that? Ever?

FWIW, I'm not trying to change anyone's mind about A/GW here, because I seriously doubt whether that can be done. But if I can do my own infinitesimal part to force both sides to use actual data and to discuss things intellgently and fairly, I'll sleep better at night. ;-)


It is so funny that you continue to ignore the obvious. All of those volumes to which you refer are all based on manipulated data, data that they themselves have admitted to altering.

Knowing that bit of information, the opposing side simply stands their ground in the full knowledge that the truth is no where to be found. This is about truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

As of this moment it is hiding in the bushes somewhere.
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SAB gave Megi a T7.0.
Quoting JLPR2:
16/2030 UTC 18.7N 128.1E T7.0/7.0 MEGI -- West Pacific

these numbers aren't good news...
That would make Megi a category 5 super typhoon.
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nah CaribbeanStorm pretty bone dry here and nah if Richard forms it would take more of a Paloma/Paula track
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716


And on a sad note, the "Beaver's" mom, Barbara Billingsley, passed away today.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
294. JLPR2
16/2030 UTC 18.7N 128.1E T7.0/7.0 MEGI -- West Pacific

these numbers aren't good news...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys it looks like a COC is forming with our SW Carib AOI



It is raining here in Jamaica now. Is it the same in Cayman? If Richard forms and is similar to Nicole and comes our way then the Jamaican economy will be set back for another decade!
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Looks like that disturbance in the S Caribbean is headed for CA. Link
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Quoting Objectivist:

NIWA capitulates on manipulated temperature data.

This is reminiscent of the episode where Russia informed NOAA that its temperature records didn't match those trumpeted by NOAA as evidence of AGW.

I find it decreasingly funny and increasingly irritating that some try to claim there's a supposed quid pro quo or balance involved here, when that's not so. AGW theorists can quote from volumes and volumes of academic and multi-governmental, multi-discipline scientific literature to bolster their beliefs, while contrarians, lacking any such actual science to support their claims, continually dip into articles on the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored disinformation written by the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored authors publishing in the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored websites or periodicals. Do contrarians ever think about that? Ever?

FWIW, I'm not trying to change anyone's mind about A/GW here, because I seriously doubt whether that can be done. But if I can do my own infinitesimal part to force both sides to use actual data and to discuss things intellgently and fairly, I'll sleep better at night. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys it looks like a COC is forming with our SW Carib AOI


Take a gander at MIMIC-TPW and see where the water is headed...Southwest.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
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hey guys it looks like a COC is forming with our SW Carib AOI

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
288. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
6:00 AM JST October 17 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (930 hPa) located at 18.7N 128.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
220 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 123.1E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon)
45 HRS: 16.6N 118.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 15.8N 114.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906
287. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON JUAN (MEGI)
5:00 AM PhST October 17 2010
=======================================

Typhoon "JUAN" has intensified further and now endangers northern Luzon.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Juan (Megi) located at 18.7°N 128.2°E or630 km east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gustiness up to 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
--------------
1.Cagayan
2.Calayan Group of Islands
3.Babuyan Group of Islands
4.Isabela

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Batanes group of Islands
2.Ilocos Norte
3.Ilocos Sur
4.Apayao
5.Abra
6.Kalinga
7.Mountain Province
8.La Union
9.Benguet
10.Ifugao
11.Nueva Vizcaya
12.Quirino
13.Aurora
14.Northern Nueva Ecija
15.Pangasinan

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signal #2 and #1 are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906
Quoting Ameister12:
This isn't good.

Megi is now predicted to become a category 5 and once she emerges into the China Sea she could be come a super typhoon again.


Yikes!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
30 minute lull. Just a boring blog day.

Everyone waiting for Richard(Dick) I assume
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:
Where would one find a water vapor loop for the WPAC basin? Thanks in advance:)
SSD Western Pacific Satellite Imagery.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
..Hello?
30 minute lull. Just a boring blog day.
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AOI in the SW Caribbean slowly but surely organizing, looks quite large too!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting CybrTeddy:
..Hello?


Howdy
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
..Hello?
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This isn't good.

Megi is now predicted to become a category 5 and once she emerges into the China Sea she could be come a super typhoon again.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its a slow Saturday for the Atlantic basin, no storms, disorganized storm activity in the southern Caribbean Sea, yawn.


This is the kind of day where you play lax music, like:

"...Bermuda, Bahama, c'mon pretty mama, Key Largo, Montego baby why don't we go
Jamaica
off the Florida Keys
There's a place called Kokomo
That's where you wanna go to get away from it all..."

A good, quiet day :)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
2nd 16 minute lull in the blog today!


Its a slow Saturday for the Atlantic basin, no storms, disorganized storm activity in the southern Caribbean Sea, yawn.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Afternoon all,

If we do get Richard, this will only be the third 'R' named storm ever in the Atlantic basin! (Roxanne 1995, Rita 2005 are the other two)


Richard would be a unique name, first time to use a MALE 'R' in the Atlantic basin considreing that Roxanne and Rita are female names, LOL.
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2nd 16 minute lull in the blog today!
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
It's a joke...LOL Lex Luthor is a comic book character.


Thank you. Just making sure.

Regarding my question...And just where are the oceans rising?

Did you notice it was a trick question? ;-)
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


If I may gently disagree with your statement, I'd like to say that the viewpoints I have seen expressed on this blog for the past two years or so seem to be about evenly split, pro and con regarding the AGW hypothesis.

The unfortunate thing though is that this is a subject which tends to bring forth raw emotions in a lot of people and thus it is often difficult to engage in a friendly debate on the topic.


I have been in and out for a few years and would rarely post. I have found more balanced sites elsewhere, but at times feel compelled to
retort when overwhelmed by a one-sided bent.
I agree the raw emotion does get the best of some but the facts should support the theory.
Here's to the friendly debate.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


?
ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HUMBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
210 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT AT AROUND 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH...135 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI




Coincidentally, Humberto made landfall nearly a year to the minute before Hurricane Ike made landfall. Random fact of the day.

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
230 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL AT GALVESTON...

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE
MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT.



$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

NNNN
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here's my update for anyone interested.
Richard might form next week 10/16/10


Afternoon all,

If we do get Richard, this will only be the third 'R' named storm ever in the Atlantic basin! (Roxanne 1995, Rita 2005 are the other two)
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What I found interesting about the last 3 years, in terms of patterns, is how quickly storms are rapidly intensifying to hurricane status. Every single year since Humberto, atleast 1 system went from a invest or a TD to a Hurricane in exactly 18 hours.

When Humberto and Lorenzo did it, I just thought it was because of how warm the SST's were. But when Gustav, Ida, and now Paula did it it does not bode well if a system next year that forms close to the US again and has a little more time over water.
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Very good point iceagecomming just goes to show you what 25% of a population can foist on the the rest when well done.
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Quoting weatherlover94:
has anyone noticed a pattern the past few years a hurricane has been hitting the us every 3 years is how its been going since wilma in 05 we didint have a hurricane landfall in the us in 06 or 07 but in 08 gustav ike in 09 nothing and so far in 2010 nothing but if this pattern continues then 2011 is will be the next lanfalling hurricane


?
ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HUMBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
210 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT AT AROUND 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH...135 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI



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Quoting LightningCharmer:
They are rising; that's why Lex Luthor is buying all the real estate around 10 feet above sea level; it will be the new waterfront!...{Chuckle}


And just where are the oceans rising?
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has anyone noticed a pattern the past few years a hurricane has been hitting the us every 3 years is how its been going since wilma in 05 we didint have a hurricane landfall in the us in 06 or 07 but in 08 gustav ike in 09 nothing and so far in 2010 nothing but if this pattern continues then 2011 is will be the next lanfalling hurricane
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Typhoon Megi is impressive.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting robert88:


I could see 2011 being a mix of 2004 and 2008. I do believe 2011 will have a lot more folks sitting on pins and needles. We won't be as lucky next time around.


Note the naming list too.

2011 already has a record, first time a naming last has been used that in the past has used the entire list up.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


I agree with your assessment.

And it only goes to show that what the Mets say on this subject always reflects the core issue when it comes to Hurricane Season:

"It's not the number of storms that form which matters, it's where they go and what they do when they get there that counts."

This has been an unusually active tropical cyclone season. And yet, it has not been especially noteworthy in terms of the overall amount of damage or lives lost in the Atlantic Basin when compared with other seasons.

For the US, it is looking more and more as if we may just get extraordinarily lucky this year with no landfalls of significant tropical cyclones. No, it is not completely over yet but the door is closing fast.
I'm glad you made this statement. I was thinking it but did not want to jinx the rest of the season. This season may go down in history as the most active season in terms of the number of storms as related to minimal human suffering and property damage, or rather the proportion of land-falling storms to total storms. It will be interesting to compare the statistics with other seasons later this year or early next.

This is not to state in any way that any human suffering or property damage is acceptable. My thoughts go out to those that have lost this season.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Afternoon, everyone. Thanks for the update of yours CybrTeddy.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I was thinking along the lines of 2008, our last neutral La Nina.


I could see 2011 being a mix of 2004 and 2008. I do believe 2011 will have a lot more folks sitting on pins and needles. We won't be as lucky next time around.
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Quoting robert88:
The earlier GFS runs were showing a N movement for the disturbance in the S Caribbean because it was showing a more powerful system. It is going to take a longer time for this area to organize and that is why i think it goes more W. It has to be picked up by a trough to get that far N like Paula did. I don't see that happening since it is so far S and HP is going to be building to the N of it.. JMO


None of the models have a good handle on this until we get a closed circulation. Take Nicole for example, some had a major hitting Florida.

And Paula, no models even developed it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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