September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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354. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:42 PM GMT on October 16, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Wiki says 921 but don't know how accurate that is.


100% accurate
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32531
353. Neapolitan
11:38 PM GMT on October 16, 2010
Quoting Seastep:


Please, can you give a representation of the standard of living that would be the current norm were the industrial age and combustion engine never to have been realized.


When there were slaves and child labor, standards of living for some were very good. But those practices proved unsustainable, too, and few would want to go back to them...though many--that is, those who stood to gain the most by maintaining the status quo--argued at the time that abolition would cause great economic upheaval, and bring on the financial collapse of the United States. Argument sound familiar?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
352. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:38 PM GMT on October 16, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Wiki says 921 but don't know how accurate that is.


oh I see, the NHC revised the pressure in post cyclone report
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46181
For what it's worth, cloud tops appear to be warming a bit and a little westerly shear is evident in the cloud structure.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Chicklit:
What cracks me up is when the Oil is Good people say the scientists support Global Warming Theory because they want research money.

Somebody please post statistics on money spent on global warming research and money spent on anti-global warming campaigns. Oh yeah, corporate donors don't have to disclose their campaign contributions, forgot. I think the Supreme Court took care of that for them.


Please, can you give a representation of the standard of living that would be the current norm were the industrial age and combustion engine never to have been realized.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
ABNT20 KNHC 162331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA IS
PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Here is my descriptive words of Megi (Juan)
Massive, Monstrous, Murderous,
Megi is a Mega Monster
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Celia had a pressure of 926 from what I remember.
Wiki says 921 but don't know how accurate that is.
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345. BDAwx
I know its not every day that we discuss the real threat of a Super Typhoon landfall.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Yea, before Megi.. Igor was the strongest cyclone this year with a pressure of 925 mb.


See post #339...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
Yea, before Megi.. Igor was the strongest cyclone this year with a pressure of 925 mb.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Most likely a Category 5


I agree completely.
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Most likely a Category 5


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
340. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Celia had a pressure of 926 from what I remember.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46181
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVENTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE EDZANI (08-20092010)
16:00 PM R%uFFFDion January 8 2010
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani (905 hPa) located at 16.1S 77.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.


strongest system of the year that I can find in my archives. (not including any Atlantic cyclones this year)


Are you including the Eastern Pacific? June's Hurricane Celia was a Cat 5 with sustained 140 knot winds (though its pressure was higher than Edzani's).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The last vortex message showed that Megi's maximum sustained winds were near 127 knots and the pressure was 913mb. A "GREAT STADIUM EFFECT" was noted.

URPA12 PGUA 162231

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/22:03:50Z
B. 18 deg 35 min N
127 deg 51 min E
C. 700 mb 1986 m
D. 127 kt
E. 016 deg 7 nm
F. 095 deg 148 kt
G. 017 deg 7 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C / 3051 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C5
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0630W MEGI OB 09
MAX FL WIND 148 KT N QUAD 22:01:30Z
OUTBOUND SFC WNDS 128 KTS
OUTBOUND FLT LVL WNDS 131 KTS
GREAT STADIUM EFFECT
;
Uh Oh! Luzon needs to batten down the hatches and make a run for it!!! This is one intense storm.
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Linksomebody might have this already...but i thought it was a nice realtime for the west pacific
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336. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46181
Quoting calusakat:

...the opposing side simply stands their ground in the full knowledge that the truth is no where to be found.


Seemes to me that the opposing side--that is, contrarians--stand their ground hoping that if we ignore the problem, it'll go away. That's exacly what those with the most to gain by maintaining the status quo are hoping you guys will do; by throwing anti-science opposition via misinformation and disinformation at everyone, people will be too confused to act. That's called obfuscation, and--unfortunately--it seems to be working...if for no other reason than Big Energy has the tens of billions of dollars it takes to mount such a campaign, while the pro-science side has to appeal to truth and reason.

Not looking good at the moment for the theorists--especially in the US. :-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
Brand new

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2010 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 18:40:36 N Lon : 127:44:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 906.1mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +9.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : EYE


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
333. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TYPHOON “JUAN” UPDATE

AS OF 6:00 AM TODAY(SUNDAY,17 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 600 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 127.9°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 195 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 24 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 hPa

---
=/ PAGASA underestimating..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46181


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Megi is turning to the wsw.
Link
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327. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVENTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE EDZANI (08-20092010)
16:00 PM Réunion January 8 2010
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani (905 hPa) located at 16.1S 77.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.


strongest system of the year that I can find in my archives. (not including any Atlantic cyclones this year)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46181
326. amd
With the recon numbers, the pressure of Megi has dropped 50 mb in 18 and a half hours. Definitely some Rapid intensification going on.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
In terms of pressure.. Megi is as strong as Ivan was at peak intensity if recon is correct.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
ADT giving Megi a T6.7 (909mb, 132kt). The Raw T# is all the way up at 7.1.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 909.3mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.1 7.1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2010 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 18:39:56 N Lon : 127:50:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 909.3mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Extremely dangerous situation.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
So, from the main blog, this last Sept was either the fourth, eighth or ninth warmest

Seems that even the experts cannot agree on where this September falls in the record.

What are we supposed to do, average it out?

Also, the post repeats the words ON RECORD.

We're talking about a 116 year "record".

So using NASA's ranking (4th warmest), we can see there were 3 Septembers warmer than the last one; and 111 Septembers COLDER than the last one.

111 (colder) to 3 (warmer).

37 to 1.

Seems like colder is winning...
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Looks like Megi will be the strongest storm of the year.

H. 913 mb

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting amd:


not quite yet: Looks like the ITOR group is disregarding the dropsonde info for now:

Latest Vortex:

URPA12 PGUA 162231

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/22:03:50Z
B. 18 deg 35 min N
127 deg 51 min E
C. 700 mb 1986 m
D. 127 kt
E. 016 deg 7 nm
F. 095 deg 148 kt
G. 017 deg 7 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C / 3051 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C5
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0630W MEGI OB 09
MAX FL WIND 148 KT N QUAD 22:01:30Z
OUTBOUND SFC WNDS 128 KTS
OUTBOUND FLT LVL WNDS 131 KTS
GREAT STADIUM EFFECT
;

That dropsonde is more recent than the vortex. The new vortex message will likely show something similar to the dropsonde.
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318. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting largeeyes:
Poor Luzon. How many times did they get his last year? Didn't they get hit like 3 times by the same storm?




Typhoon Parma/Pepeng crossed Luzon several times.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46181
Great Scott! That's as impressive as Igor was.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
316. amd
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This dropsonde into Megi was likely not intended for the eye. It caught winds of 155mph at the surface (915mb). Megi is likely a ~910mb typhoon with winds of about 160mph.

UZPA13 PGUA 162223

XXAA 66227 99187 11279 06087 99915 27203 35635 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85649 23603 06091 70339 19211 09575 88999 77999
31313 09608 82202
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 11
62626 SPL 1862N12779E 2205 MBL WND 04123 AEV 20801 DLM WND 06089
914698 WL150 02153 084 REL 1867N12787E 220202 SPG 1863N12779E 220
541 =
XXBB 66228 99187 11279 06087 00915 27203 11910 25603 22850 23603
33732 19637 44710 18421 55702 20613 66698 17809
21212 00915 35635 11913 00139 22910 00695 33907 02655 44905 03158
55904 03657 66898 04135 77888 04620 88876 05608 99870 05105 11864
05597 22857 05600 33850 06091 44698 10073
31313 09608 82202
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 11
62626 SPL 1862N12779E 2205 MBL WND 04123 AEV 20801 DLM WND 06089
914698 WL150 02153 084 REL 1867N12787E 220202 SPG 1863N12779E 220
541 =
;


not quite yet: Looks like the ITOR group is disregarding the dropsonde info for now. Interestingly, it looks like it was dropped in between the eyewall and the eye, and landed in the western eyewall.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS no longer develops the Caribbean AOI.

Discount this run unless we get 2 successive runs indicating that the GFS is no longer on board.


That is odd. The GFS has been more bullish on developing a system there longer than any other model has and now it is dropping back?

Maybe it is the monsoonal flow pattern that has made the computer model discouraged? Perhaps the data is showing something like a Nicole-type situation forming there instead of a powerful and well-defined hurricane.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 753
The last vortex message showed that Megi's maximum sustained winds were near 127 knots and the pressure was 913mb. A "GREAT STADIUM EFFECT" was noted.

URPA12 PGUA 162231

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/22:03:50Z
B. 18 deg 35 min N
127 deg 51 min E
C. 700 mb 1986 m
D. 127 kt
E. 016 deg 7 nm
F. 095 deg 148 kt
G. 017 deg 7 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C / 3051 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C5
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0630W MEGI OB 09
MAX FL WIND 148 KT N QUAD 22:01:30Z
OUTBOUND SFC WNDS 128 KTS
OUTBOUND FLT LVL WNDS 131 KTS
GREAT STADIUM EFFECT
;
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
Typhoon Megi got a eye now.


Stop making new names!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32531
This dropsonde into Megi was likely not intended for the eye. It caught winds of 155mph at the surface (915mb). Megi is likely a ~910mb typhoon with winds of about 160mph.

UZPA13 PGUA 162223

XXAA 66227 99187 11279 06087 99915 27203 35635 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85649 23603 06091 70339 19211 09575 88999 77999
31313 09608 82202
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 11
62626 SPL 1862N12779E 2205 MBL WND 04123 AEV 20801 DLM WND 06089
914698 WL150 02153 084 REL 1867N12787E 220202 SPG 1863N12779E 220
541 =
XXBB 66228 99187 11279 06087 00915 27203 11910 25603 22850 23603
33732 19637 44710 18421 55702 20613 66698 17809
21212 00915 35635 11913 00139 22910 00695 33907 02655 44905 03158
55904 03657 66898 04135 77888 04620 88876 05608 99870 05105 11864
05597 22857 05600 33850 06091 44698 10073
31313 09608 82202
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 11
62626 SPL 1862N12779E 2205 MBL WND 04123 AEV 20801 DLM WND 06089
914698 WL150 02153 084 REL 1867N12787E 220202 SPG 1863N12779E 220
541 =
;
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310. JLPR2
and we got visible of Megi

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308. amd
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Link?


Latest recon results from ITOR (a research mission into West Pacific Typhoons)

All Source Information can be found here:

ITOR Mission Info

Edit #1: The pressure that I stated in post 304 may be understated, and so maybe the official wind measurement.

A dropsonde just measured 155mph winds with a surface pressure of 915 mb.

At 910 mb: Winds are 5 degrees (from the N) 195 knots (224 mph)

Edit #2: Not sure if the 195 knot reading is representative or correct. After further looking at the winds in the dropsonde, it looks like winds between 900-907 mb are from 155 to 160 knots, with 139 knots just above the surface (913 kts).
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


It is raining here in Jamaica now. Is it the same in Cayman? If Richard forms and is similar to Nicole and comes our way then the Jamaican economy will be set back for another decade!
Hi CaribbeanStorm. Not raining in Cayman now but East End is getting pretty overcast. I guess we will get some before the night is done.
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Quoting amd:
Megi truly is an intense system.

Recon just measured flight level winds of 148 kts with SFMR surface winds of 127 kts (Near 150 mph).

Pressure has fallen to 910 mb (estimated).







Link?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
Poor Luzon. How many times did they get his last year? Didn't they get hit like 3 times by the same storm?
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304. amd
Megi truly is an intense system.

Recon just measured flight level winds of 148 kts with SFMR surface winds of 127 kts (Near 150 mph).

Pressure has fallen to 910 mb (estimated).





Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.