September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


SHIPS is only an intensity model, for him to say it is bad news for Florida is serious wishcasting or misinformation of some kind.


I know it's only for intensity, but what's it saying?
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Quoting caneswatch:


How strong is it saying?


SHIPS is only an intensity model, for him to say it is bad news for Florida is serious wishcasting or misinformation of some kind.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Why are you saying huh?


I have my posts set on 50, so I missed it.
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Quoting FLstormwarning:
Ships model is bad news for FLorida


How strong is it saying?
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Back later.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Huh?

10/17/2010 12:09AM invest_al992010.invest


Why are you saying huh?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


GFS always does this, it will consistently show something for days and days; and then just a few days before it actually develops, it drops it


Yeah. It's interesting though because the ECMWF has never been too excited about this system and the GFS is now questioning it, so we're left with the more feedback-sensitive models like the Canadian which still shows development. The pattern for it makes sense, but of course it would be nice to have the big hitter global models onboard.
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99L in the SW Caribbean.

I'm not surprised the GFS dropped it entirely, it has no closed circulation so the models will drop it and then gain it again then drop it. Heck, none of the models developed Paula.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
As Taz said, an Invest 99L has formed. From ATCF:

AL, 99, 2010101700, , BEST, 0, 95N, 808W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13742
Huh?

10/17/2010 12:09AM invest_al992010.invest
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Quoting Levi32:
Interesting how the 18z GFS dropped Richard entirely. There is little there at Day 8:



GFS always does this, it will consistently show something for days and days; and then just a few days before it actually develops, it drops it
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Interesting how the 18z GFS dropped Richard entirely. There is little there at Day 8:

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388. amd
even though there hasn't been much updates lately on the ITOP website, the recon made another pass through Megi's eye, and found surface winds of 159 mph with a pressure of 930 mb on the NW side of the system.

raw dropsonde information:

UZPA13 PGUA 170005

XXAA 67007 99188 11276 06087 99930 26212 01638 00/// ///// /////
92044 25212 02652 85787 21812 06656 70455 12001 11166 88999 77999
31313 09608 82343
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 29
62626 SPL 1875N12741E 2346 MBL WND 04655 AEV 20801 DLM WND 07650
929699 WL150 03150 084 REL 1879N12757E 234302 SPG 1875N12741E 234
649 =
XXBB 67008 99188 11276 06087 00930 26212 11850 21812 22712 13808
33703 15803 44699 09200
21212 00930 01638 11927 01639 22924 02654 33923 03159 44921 03157
55919 03144 66914 04160 77911 04155 88908 04659 99903 04657 11897
04670 22881 06160 33850 06656 44699 11166
31313 09608 82343
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 29
62626 SPL 1875N12741E 2346 MBL WND 04655 AEV 20801 DLM WND 07650
929699 WL150 03150 084 REL 1879N12757E 234302 SPG 1875N12741E 234
649 =
;

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Quoting Neapolitan:


Meh. Claiming that anyone falsified data is an example of just such obfuscation. There was no so-called "Climate-Gate", but if there was, it had to do with all the news outlets that were complicit with the contrarians in A) blowing up a few internal glitches into a full-fledged "disproval" of climate change and B) utterly failing to publicize the fact that every independent investigation found absolutely no evidence of wrong-doing.

Anyway, it seems to me you're growing a bit obstreperous, so I'm gonna step back and let you cool off for awhile. Fair enough, fellow southwest Floridian? ;-)


I will assume that you were not in on the e-mails between the various individuals in that Brittish college where they admitted to altering the data collected or the admission by NOAA et al admitting to altering data.

Or that you were not aware that many of the individuals who are in on the AGW thing are refusing to let third party individuals see the actual original documentation or the software used to come to their conclusions, claiming copyright issues. Hardly what you would call open information channels.

obstreperous - stubbornly resistant to control

Yes, indeed, I stubbornly resist being controlled by false data and the erroneous conclusions reached as a result.

Surely, you are not insulted because I have the temerity to oppose your views and opinions. This discussion is about facts and figures, there is nothing personal about it. Have we become so sensitive to having others declare an opposing view that we are threatened by such actions? I hope not.

I have enjoyed the repartee with you today, 'Fellow Southwest Floridian' I look forward to more encounters in the future.

For now, Grandpa must step away from the keyboard and tuck two grandkids into bed for the night.

Tomorrow will be another day.
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in the mean time we now have 99L

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383. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Wow. Now when you saying 905 hPa, that's the equivalent of millibars, correct? Or is that different?


it's the same equivalent
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46550
380. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TYPHOON “JUAN” UPDATE

AS OF 7:00 AM TODAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010, TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 590 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 127.8°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 195 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 24 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 hPa

---
ugh PAGASA. =/
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46550
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Looks as if Wilma got reincarnated in the W. Pac as Megi


They have several of these every year over there, but if they believe the ADT estimates of sub-900mb pressure it will be quite an event.
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Quoting Levi32:
Holy cow this is pretty. Finally a supertyphoon for the west Pacific. Unfortunately this is headed for the Philippines.



Looks as if Wilma got reincarnated in the W. Pac as Megi
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting cat5hurricane:

What are the chances this thing stays off to the north of Luzon? Probably not too good at this point....


Yeah....now that it's making the turn and missing the trough, it will be forced to around the ridge and that looks to involve some WSW movement which would take it right into Luzon.
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374. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The lowest pressure I've seen since JMA took over responsibility for the West Pacific is 905 hPa

I remember Hong Kong Observatory had 900 hPa for Jangmi, I believe the name of the cyclone
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46550
ADT believes Megi is a sub 900 mb system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
371. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
958
TCNA21 RJTD 170000
CCAA 17000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17187 11275 11344 270// 92712=

October 17 2010, 0000z
Super Typhoon Megi (1013/15W/STY 17)
18.7N 127.5E
Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

---
7.0 from RSMC Tokyo
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46550
Sub-900mb?


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 899.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.0 7.1

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
367. JRRP
Link
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Quoting Seastep:


Abolition of alcohol was a terrible idea.


Prohibition was, indeed, a bad idea. At least you and I agree on that. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13742
Holy cow this is pretty. Finally a supertyphoon for the west Pacific. Unfortunately this is headed for the Philippines.

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Quoting Neapolitan:


When there were slaves and child labor, standards of living for some were very good. But those practices proved unsustainable, too, and few would want to go back to them...though many--that is, those who stood to gain the most by maintaining the status quo--argued at the time that abolition would cause great economic upheaval, and bring on the financial collapse of the United States. Argument sound familiar?


Terrible analogy with slave thing. JMO. :)

Yes, that does sound familiar in terms of a liquid. Abolition of alcohol was a terrible idea.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting calusakat:


Obfuscation?

Is that what you call the 97%ers using admittedly altered data? Of course not, because they represent your skewed views. Tsk Tsk. If it looks like a duck, if it waddles like a duck, if it quacks like a duck, more than likely, it is a duck. It is obfuscation.

The contrarians have it easy. Knowing that your data is falsified, ie altered, the contrarians have but to sit back and let you hang yourselves with your own materials. The unprofessional / sloppy conduct of the pro-AGW folks is of their own making and when AGW finds itself in some dark and dank dust bin, the Pro-AGW folks will only have themselves to blame.


Meh. Claiming that anyone falsified data is an example of just such obfuscation. There was no so-called "Climate-Gate", but if there was, it had to do with all the news outlets that were complicit with the contrarians in A) blowing up a few internal glitches into a full-fledged "disproval" of climate change and B) utterly failing to publicize the fact that every independent investigation found absolutely no evidence of wrong-doing.

I, like you, wish I could sit back and let the chips fall where they will. But I can't; I'm a human, and I'm a father, and both of those make me very involved with wanting to do things right.

Anyway, it seems to me you're growing a bit obstreperous, so I'm gonna step back and let you cool off for awhile. Fair enough, fellow southwest Floridian? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13742
Quoting Seastep:


Please, can you give a representation of the standard of living that would be the current norm were the industrial age and combustion engine never to have been realized.
The Industrial age did happen. It's affected many things. We're going through a time now we're we are in the mist of developing technologies to control the pollution, and the output of carbon. Can you imagine what the standard of living would be if we had no pollution control devices? Or if we allowed unabated smokestack belching? That's what it was like for the first 150 years or so of the Industrial Age. Or, if we hadn't developed new technologies, like nuclear or hydro-electric...that provide energy with no carbon spewed? Or better pollution control devices? Or looking for alternatives in the first place. That's where we are now and the oil/gas/carbon producing industries are doing their best to stifle alternatives that they can't control and profit from.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Wiki says 921 but don't know how accurate that is.

The NHC Cyclone Report on Celia references the 921mb figure in several places.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13742
I'm not Storm Junkie lol.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Neapolitan:


Seemes to me that the opposing side--that is, contrarians--stand their ground hoping that if we ignore the problem, it'll go away. That's exacly what those with the most to gain by maintaining the status quo are hoping you guys will do; by throwing anti-science opposition via misinformation and disinformation at everyone, people will be too confused to act. That's called obfuscation, and--unfortunately--it seems to be working...if for no other reason than Big Energy has the tens of billions of dollars it takes to mount such a campaign, while the pro-science side has to appeal to truth and reason.

Not looking good at the moment for the theorists--especially in the US. :-\


Obfuscation?

Is that what you call the 97%ers using admittedly altered data? Of course not, because they represent your skewed views. Tsk Tsk. If it looks like a duck, if it waddles like a duck, if it quacks like a duck, more than likely, it is a duck. You employ obfuscation quite well.

The contrarians have it easy. Knowing that your data is falsified, ie altered, the contrarians have but to sit back and let you hang yourselves with your own materials. The unprofessional / sloppy conduct of the pro-AGW folks is of their own making and when AGW finds itself in some dark and dank dust bin, the Pro-AGW folks will only have themselves to blame.
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Seems like it would be a bit higher looking at satellite. And correction on the westerly, southwesterly.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Wiki says 921 but don't know how accurate that is.


100% accurate
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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