September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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we this need 99L and i have a full house
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I see 99L Is forecast to cross Costa Rica into the EPAC = good news!!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The Industrial age did happen. It's affected many things. We're going through a time now we're we are in the mist of developing technologies to control the pollution, and the output of carbon. Can you imagine what the standard of living would be if we had no pollution control devices? Or if we allowed unabated smokestack belching? That's what it was like for the first 150 years or so of the Industrial Age. Or, if we hadn't developed new technologies, like nuclear or hydro-electric...that provide energy with no carbon spewed? Or better pollution control devices? Or looking for alternatives in the first place. That's where we are now and the oil/gas/carbon producing industries are doing their best to stifle alternatives that they can't control and profit from.

Regardless of which side you may find yourself on regarding AGW, it is about the MONEY!!

Instead of altering data and spinning fanciful tales of imminent destruction, why not simply tell the truth instead. In light of the projections made by the US Bureau of Statistics that the global population will reach 18 billion somewhere around 2070, we must begin preparing today for the huge load such a population will place on our ability to provide adequate, comfortable living conditions and at the same time producing food for all those people, especially if we do not want to be consuming Soylent Green that is.

Coal and Oil are not infinite in their availability to us. Sooner, not later, we will deplete those resources. Nuclear energy is equally undesirable for the long haul...make that centuries. Considering that the half-life of nuclear waste is at least 10 to 15 thousand years... where on earth can we possibly store those wastes for such a long period and be absolutely certain that those living in such a long time from now will be able to deal with the deterioration of the storage facilities.

The only safe and reasonable source of energy is photo-voltaic. Sunlight is, for our purposes, an infinite energy source and little, if any side waste is generated once the units are installed. Yes, there is waste generated in the production, but, I am certain that the lifetime of those waste products does not come anywhere near 10 thousand years.

Rather than wringing our hands and making dreadful prognostications about AGW, met scientists should be using their skills to help monitor the changes in our atmosphere and provide accurate and unbiased information so that as we proceed toward 2070 we can be sure that what we are doing is actually having an effect instead of being simply a 'feel good' tap dance.

More than likely, carbon is the least of our worries and met scientists can be our first line of defense in finding ways to measure those, as yet, unnoticed other atmospheric influences and help everyone come to informed conclusions as opposed to current hysterical ones.
Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting CybrTeddy:
In terms of pressure.. Megi is as strong as Ivan was at peak intensity if recon is correct.


and Ivan was one mean and destructive dude!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
I see we have 99L now likely we will see a COC relocation when we have well a proper COC any way off for the night see y'all tomrrow morning

and yes I am still working on my PS3
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N18%uFFFD40'(18.7%uFFFD)
E127%uFFFD30'(127.5%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E410km(220NM)
W330km(180NM)
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
Megi is like a mega monster rampaging
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Megi looks to be jogging to the west-southwest
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Okay, math humor time:

According to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died, according to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died, according to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died, according to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died...


Good one. But you really need to have it in descending font sizes.
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Invest 99 looks like it wont make it N!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting Seastep:


Disagree entirely.

How many plants were built after 1979. At the time, the US energy policy was to have over 2000 built.

We have 100 or so.

It's not an issue of profitability.


When I did a presentation a year ago, the U.S. had something like 104 nuclear plants, around 1/4 of the world's 400-something plants.

Most of the plants were constructed in the 60s and 70s, the last coming "online" in 1996 I believe.

I think our phobias about the danger of nuclear accidents and possibility of sabotage, especially during the Cold War, went a long way to ending the construction of new plants - but is not the sole reason for the reduction of new plants being constructed.

Of course one must also keep in mind that we have not really needed to build a lot more! The plants we currently have supply nearly 20% of the U.S. consumption of energy... many plants have been simply expanded to provide more power, without the needed to construct new ones. This practice continues (there are current plans to expand the facilities at Turkey Point here in South Florida). And with the relative cheapness of other energy sources (oil, coal, hydro, wind), there is not really a good reason to construct a lot of new expensive plants, especially when we're still dealing with where to stash the waste.

(BTW an interesting point to remember is that currently 70% of our oil usage is spent on transportation... motor vehicles).
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Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Actually 3MI had little to do with the collapse of nuk power plants. Cheep coal did them in. They were not providing economic return investors hoped so money moved to other parts of the market. Couldn't have had Gov underwriting them and distorting the market now could we?
The sad thing is that we are now 15 to 20 yrs behind the French in nuclear power technology.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Actually 3MI had little to do with the collapse of nuk power plants. Cheep coal did them in. They were not providing economic return investors hoped so money moved to other parts of the market. Couldn't have had Gov underwriting them and distorting the market now could we?


Disagree entirely.

How many plants were built after 1979. At the time, the US energy policy was to have over 2000 built.

We have 100 or so.

It's not an issue of profitability.
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every time something is in the Caribbean, someone has it hitting Florida.
Keep saying it...it may happen some year.
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Dang, Megi is pretty. Godspeed to those in his/her? path.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The Industrial age did happen. It's affected many things. We're going through a time now we're we are in the mist of developing technologies to control the pollution, and the output of carbon. Can you imagine what the standard of living would be if we had no pollution control devices? Or if we allowed unabated smokestack belching? That's what it was like for the first 150 years or so of the Industrial Age. Or, if we hadn't developed new technologies, like nuclear or hydro-electric...that provide energy with no carbon spewed? Or better pollution control devices? Or looking for alternatives in the first place. That's where we are now and the oil/gas/carbon producing industries are doing their best to stifle alternatives that they can't control and profit from.


Here, here. Agree wholeheartedly with that.

But people seem to think that we are still in that age when we are not.
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435. JRRP

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434. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TYPHOON “JUAN” UPDATE

AS OF 9:00 AM TODAY (SUNDAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 540 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.8°N, 127.2°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 195 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 230 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 22 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 hPa

---
105 knots..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
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432. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting largeeyes:
Who is doing recon in Megi?


Guam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
Who is doing recon in Megi?
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Quoting Seastep:
Way late with this... family stuff. Was doing this right after my last post 364 and was pulled away.

Nea - I am all for alternatives. In reality, there are very few that are not.

As I have said many times before, we'd be in much better shape had we proceeded with the 2K+ nuclear power plants as planned.

Three Mile Island happened and there was a knee-jerk reaction. Hopefully we don't repeat it.

Anyone that is intellectually honest and truly believes that human CO2 emissions will have devastating consequences should be all for Nuclear because there is no viable alternative currently.
Actually 3MI had little to do with the collapse of nuk power plants. Cheep coal did them in. They were not providing economic return investors hoped so money moved to other parts of the market. Couldn't have had Gov underwriting them and distorting the market now could we?
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169knot flight winds
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426. amd
Vortex info for Megi:

URPA12 PGUA 170121

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/23:39:30Z
B. 18 deg 38 min N
127 deg 30 min E
C. 700 mb 2280 m
D. 120 kt
E. 141 deg 6 nm
F. 247 deg 128 kt
G. 146 deg 6 nm
H. 908 mb
I. 12 C / 3054 m
J. 19 C / 3041 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C5

N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0630W MEGI OB 25
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 169 KT NE QUAD 23:42:50Z
OUTBOUND SFC WNDS 146 KTS

;

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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Sometimes that's all it takes. Yep.

What did Ike end up topping off at?
145 mph.
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424. amd
Updated eyewall information:

UZPA13 PGUA 170116

XXAA 67007 99186 11276 06087 99918 26203 08652 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85676 23203 13642 70361 16403 24603 88999 77999
31313 09608 82335
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 27
62626 SPL 1876N12754E 2342 MBL WND 11657 AEV 20801 DLM WND 16107
917695 WL150 10167 077 REL 1858N12757E 233549 SPG 1875N12754E 234
201 =
XXBB 67008 99186 11276 06087 00918 26203 11850 23203 22701 16404
33698 18002 44695 15400
21212 00918 08652 11916 08652 22915 09159 33912 09658 44909 09676
55908 10179 66896 11667 77890 12172 88886 12161 99882 12660 11878
13150 22870 13143 33861 13642 44854 13645 55850 13642 66801 16135
77794 16647 88775 18628 99707 23608 11695 24591
31313 09608 82335
61616 AF307 0630W MEGI OB 27
62626 SPL 1876N12754E 2342 MBL WND 11657 AEV 20801 DLM WND 16107
917695 WL150 10167 077 REL 1858N12757E 233549 SPG 1875N12754E 234
201 =
;

Important Translated Information:

Product: Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZPA13 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 01:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 27

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 18.6N 127.6E (View map)
Marsden Square: 060 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
918mb (27.11 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.9°C (78.6°F) 85° (from the E) 152 knots (175 mph)
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JTWC:

15W MEGI 101017 0000 18.7N 127.5E WPAC 140 918
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Way late with this... family stuff. Was doing this right after my last post 364 and was pulled away.

Nea - I am all for alternatives. In reality, there are very few that are not.

As I have said many times before, we'd be in much better shape had we proceeded with the 2K+ nuclear power plants as planned.

Three Mile Island happened and there was a knee-jerk reaction. Hopefully we don't repeat it.

Anyone that is intellectually honest and truly believes that human CO2 emissions will have devastating consequences should be all for Nuclear because there is no viable alternative currently.
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421. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Megi name means "catfish" and was contributed by Republic of Korea

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
420. amd
Dropsonde dropped into eye of Megi. Pressure now down to 908 mb.

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 18.6N 127.5E (View map)
Marsden Square: 060 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
908mb (26.81 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.3°C (79.3°F) 80° (from the E) 1 knots (1 mph)

1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
850mb 581m (1,906 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 80° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph)
700mb 2,273m (7,457 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 16.1°C (61.0°F) 255° (from the WSW) 23 knots (26 mph)
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Prohibition was, indeed, a bad idea. At least you and I agree on that. ;-)
Ag-ree, hicc-up, Agr-ee, hic-cup, Ahem - Agree!

Megi's symmetry is amazing. My thoughts are with those in his path. May they be prepared and stay safe.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1113
416. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD

The CMC develops 99L, then takes it north along the east coast of Nicaragua before turning it west into the Gulf of Honduras...

Okay, math humor time:

According to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died, according to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died, according to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died, according to his wife Aliette, Benoit Mandelbrot--the man who coined the term fractal--has died...

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
414. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
PAGASA IR satellite

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah unfortunately, that's what I'm kinda seeing too. He's definitely not moving anymore north of 275.

Thanks as always.
Megi reminds of Andrew in the sense that 1992 was a very slow year tropically, but it only takes one really bad storm to make the hurricane season horrible..The Pacific is having a record slow year which is good, but this storm could break records they would be a lot better off not breaking... This is a small sat pic of 1984 Ike approaching the Philippines.
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411. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TYPHOON JUAN UPDATE

AS OF 8:00 AM TODAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010, TYPHOON %u201CJUAN%u201D WAS LOCATED AT 570 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7N, 127.5E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 195 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 24 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 hPa

---
still frowning on PAGASA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi,

99L forecast track opinions?


He left.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
409. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC
00HR 18.7N 127.6E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS 250KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 20KM/H
P+24HR 18.8N 122.8E 920HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 18.1N 119.6E 950HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 17.9N 117.1E 945HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 18.1N 114.9E 930HPA 50M/S
P+120HR 18.8N 113.3E 930HPA 50M/S=

-----
120 knots from CMA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
Levi,

99L forecast track opinions?
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407. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
9:00 AM JST October 17 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (915 hPa) located at 18.7N 127.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
220 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.9N 122.5E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.5N 117.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 16.5N 115.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
Early guidance shows nothing too interesting. Past few runs of the GFS had it running into SA, so I guess we'll have to see what happens.





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Quoting Hurricanes101:


SHIPS is only an intensity model, for him to say it is bad news for Florida is serious wishcasting or misinformation of some kind.


I know it's only for intensity, but what's it saying?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.