September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
The 00Z Early-cycle intensity guidance is all for 99L being named..


Not only do they support being named they also support 99L becoming Hurricane Richard at some point. There's only one model below Cat 1 status and that's only by 2-3 knots.
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Invest 99L: the last 24hours in 6hour line-segments

Looks like NHC thinks it finally has a good center fix:
the 06amGMT was posted before the hour when it's usually posted 45minutes or more after the hour;
and a LARGE change in the position nearly perpendicular to the previous curvature.

Expect high orange from the NHC's 2amEDT TropicalWeatherOutlook, then some coordinate revisions on the 12pmGMT ATCF to smooth out the curvature.

Possibly even a TropicalDepression called on an 8amEDT NHC.Advisory. Though the probability of that remains low, I've a feeling that if&when 99L takes off, it's gonna organize&strengthen fast.
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Dear lord, jason... what a monster! We can only hope it tries to go through an EWRC right before it hits land, or somehow weakens, otherwise.

Gust to almost 200 mph... my god. :(
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501. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
720
TCNA21 RJTD 170600
CCAA 17060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17185 11262 11344 270// 92613=

06:00 AM UTC October 17 2010
Super Typhoon Megi (1013/15W/STY 17)
18.5N 126.2E
Dvorak Intensity: 7.0
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44700
500. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
On Sunday 17th October 2010, @dost_pagasa said:

AS OF 1:00 PM TODAY (SUNDAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 450 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.6°N, 126.3°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 195 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 230 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 22 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 hPa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44700
Looks like Megi is a Super-Typhoon now. 160MPH is what mainpage is saying on Wunderground. With gusts to 195mph!

Be careful Luzon. Sheesh.
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463 Skyepony "This frame right now (& it will change) has a digital blacked out speck in the eye?"

Specks... or The Scream got sucked into the eye.
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I'm praying it veers off to the open Pacific. Sure looks impressive in IR.
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495. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
On Sunday 17th October 2010, @dost_pagasa said:

AS OF 12:00 NN TODAY (SUNDAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 470 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 126.5°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 195 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 230 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 22 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 hPa

---
105 knots from PAGASA still...
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44700
Quoting Skyepony:
Another energy maybe is a little star made east of San Francisco by the biggest laser ever. They tested it this week.


Hi Skyepony,
Thanks for sharing.
I wasn't aware of this site.
Very interesting actually.
I now have it bookmarked.
Thanks again.
v/r
Moe
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493. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON JUAN (MEGI)
11:00 AM PhST October 17 2010
=======================================

Typhoon "JUAN" has gained more strength and continue to endanger northern Luzon.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Juan (Megi) located at 18.7°N 127.0°E or 520 km east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gustiness up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Cagayan
2.Calayan Group of Islands
3.Babuyan Group of Islands
4.Isabela

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
--------------
1.Batanes group of Islands
2.Ilocos Norte
3.Ilocos Sur
4.Apayao
5.Abra
6.Kalinga
7.Mountain Province
8.Ifugao
9.Nueva Vizcaya
10.Quirino
11.Northern Aurora

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.La Union
2.Benguet
3.Pangasinan
4.Nueva Ecija
5.Rest of Aurora

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signals #3 and #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions, monitor the hourly updates and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44700
Quoting Skyepony:


I think they were planning on 2012. I think if they don't make their star by then, defense gets the laser.


I believe that defense will get it regardless. I hope that we can also use it for peaceful purposes as well. What a wonderful world it could be with such an energy source.
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490. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This could be the answer we need and seek. May we prefect this energy source sooner rather later.


I think they were planning on 2012. I think if they don't make their star by then, defense gets the laser.
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489. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

He's on his way alright. The earlier 12Z & 18Z GFS (250mb plot) runs up to 48 hours were showing very conducive conditions for him. Going to certainly be something to watch tomorrow through all next week.


Models have hinted at this since before Paula formed. I think there is a really good chance 99L will pull together. Kinda looks like a 'cane skeleton that just needs shoved fully into the Caribbean.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Another energy maybe is a little star made east of San Francisco by the biggest laser ever. They tested it this week.


This could be the answer we need and seek. May we prefect this energy source sooner rather later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
486. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
12:00 AM JST October 17 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (910 hPa) located at 18.7N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
220 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.9N 122.3E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon)
45 HRS: 16.5N 117.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 16.5N 115.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)

--
and still rising...
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44700
Philippines braces for possible supertyphoon

An interesting aside in the article,
In July, a typhoon killed 102 people. It unexpectedly changed direction and sliced through Manila, cutting power across the sprawling metropolis of 12 million people, prompting President Benigno Aquino to sack the chief weather forecaster.
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Invest 99L: the last 24hours in 6hour line-segments
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Quoting Skyepony:
The solar industry is wrapping up its most successful year ever. Solar is now the fastest growing energy industry in the U.S., employing nearly 100,000 Americans and generating billions of dollars of economic growth for our economy.

While solar grew in 2010, fossil fuel companies continued to show why their dirty energy is no longer practical to power our nation. In April, at the Upper Big Branch mine in West Virginia, the coal industry suffered its worst mining accident in 40 years. Just one month later, the oil industry caused the worst spill in U.S. history, jeopardizing the ecosystem and economy of the entire Gulf region.

The solar industry, on the other hand, is on pace for a record year, installing enough clean, reliable solar energy to power more than 200,000 homes. This growth was highlighted last week when the Obama Administration announced that it would return solar to the White House.

The solar industry’s gains continued with last week’s announcement by the Department of the Interior that it will issue permits allowing the first utility-scale solar project on federal land. This is a significant milestone for solar. Over the last two decades, 74,000 permits have been approved for oil and gas drilling on public lands. And up until last week solar had received zero.

Over the next five years, our industry will see an aggressive expansion in both capacity and revenue. By 2015, the industry aims to install enough new solar electric capacity across the nation every year to power 2 million homes, making solar America’s number one source of newly installed energy capacity.

Think about that – that’s enough new solar capacity to replace 10 coal plants each and every year. We can install so much solar energy that we will eliminate the need for any new coal or nuclear power plants in the U.S. ever again.


I agree that solar power will become a more viable source of energy in the future and that it is excellent that we are making strides in this direction now. Wave/tidal power and wind power are also future viable energy sources. There are some large hurdles to overcome with each of these alternative energy sources. Transmission and storage, on a large scale, are two of these hurdles that need to be overcome. We also cannot regulate the amount of sun an areas receives nor can we regulate wind, tides and waves. Tides are very predictable but we cannot control the strength of tidal movement. Eventually I believe we can overcome these obstacles, at least to the point that these sources can be used on a large scale.
We certainly need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, but we cannot eliminate them completely. We rely on oil for more than just an energy source. We use the byproducts for plastics, road building materials and lubricants. I think we can lower on dependence fossil fuels, but I do not think we can completely eliminate them from our lives.
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479. Skyepony (Mod)
The 00Z Early-cycle intensity guidance is all for 99L being named..
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Alright, G'nite All! I've been fightin a cold and finally am feeling like getting some good nite sleep!
Tropical Update From Texas! La Nina Strengthens; My New Hurricane Forecasts
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476. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 170300 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 170300 UTC
00HR 18.7N 126.7E 910HPA 65M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 25KM/H
P+24HR 18.5N 122.0E 920HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 18.0N 118.9E 950HPA 45M/S
P+72HR 18.0N 116.5E 945HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 18.4N 114.9E 930HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 19.0N 113.2E 930HPA 52M/S=

--
130 kts from CMA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44700
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Huh, interesting. While the operational GFS 18z failed to pick 99L up.. the GFS ensembles locked on to it for 18z.



Same with the 12z ECMWF Ensembles
Yep, Most of the Ensemble members and means from most models have shown all these invests that have formed all season.
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472. Skyepony (Mod)
Another energy maybe is a little star made east of San Francisco by the biggest laser ever. They tested it this week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
471. Skyepony (Mod)
The solar industry is wrapping up its most successful year ever. Solar is now the fastest growing energy industry in the U.S., employing nearly 100,000 Americans and generating billions of dollars of economic growth for our economy.

While solar grew in 2010, fossil fuel companies continued to show why their dirty energy is no longer practical to power our nation. In April, at the Upper Big Branch mine in West Virginia, the coal industry suffered its worst mining accident in 40 years. Just one month later, the oil industry caused the worst spill in U.S. history, jeopardizing the ecosystem and economy of the entire Gulf region.

The solar industry, on the other hand, is on pace for a record year, installing enough clean, reliable solar energy to power more than 200,000 homes. This growth was highlighted last week when the Obama Administration announced that it would return solar to the White House.

The solar industry’s gains continued with last week’s announcement by the Department of the Interior that it will issue permits allowing the first utility-scale solar project on federal land. This is a significant milestone for solar. Over the last two decades, 74,000 permits have been approved for oil and gas drilling on public lands. And up until last week solar had received zero.

Over the next five years, our industry will see an aggressive expansion in both capacity and revenue. By 2015, the industry aims to install enough new solar electric capacity across the nation every year to power 2 million homes, making solar America’s number one source of newly installed energy capacity.

Think about that – that’s enough new solar capacity to replace 10 coal plants each and every year. We can install so much solar energy that we will eliminate the need for any new coal or nuclear power plants in the U.S. ever again.
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470. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
On Sunday 17th October 2010, @dost_pagasa said:

AS OF 10:00 AM TODAY (SUNDAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 520 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 127.0°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 195 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 230 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 22 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 hPa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44700
Huh, interesting. While the operational GFS 18z failed to pick 99L up.. the GFS ensembles locked on to it for 18z.



Same with the 12z ECMWF Ensembles
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23562
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You know what you know.
Of course my DDD (paraphrasing someone) used to say: "it isn't what you don't know that gets you in the biggest trouble. It's what you know that isn't so." Dear Departed Dad could be infuriating at times.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:


When I did a presentation a year ago, the U.S. had something like 104 nuclear plants, around 1/4 of the world's 400-something plants.

Most of the plants were constructed in the 60s and 70s, the last coming "online" in 1996 I believe.

I think our phobias about the danger of nuclear accidents and possibility of sabotage, especially during the Cold War, went a long way to ending the construction of new plants - but is not the sole reason for the reduction of new plants being constructed.

Of course one must also keep in mind that we have not really needed to build a lot more! The plants we currently have supply nearly 20% of the U.S. consumption of energy... many plants have been simply expanded to provide more power, without the needed to construct new ones. This practice continues (there are current plans to expand the facilities at Turkey Point here in South Florida). And with the relative cheapness of other energy sources (oil, coal, hydro, wind), there is not really a good reason to construct a lot of new expensive plants, especially when we're still dealing with where to stash the waste.

(BTW an interesting point to remember is that currently 70% of our oil usage is spent on transportation... motor vehicles).


I fully agree that we need to add to our sources of energy. The Earth's human population is continuing to grow at an ever escalating rate. Along with this fact is the fact that more and more of our population is consuming larger amounts of energy. Imagine, if you will, that every citizen of Earth was using half as much energy as the average citizen of the U.S.. The energy demands would far exceed the capability of oil to supply our needs. We do need alternative energy sources.

Nuclear energy could help to power our energy needs. There is one major problem with nuclear energy. How do you dispose of the nuclear waste? We are not speaking of something that is biodegradable and benign in ten years.

Until we have developed a viable way to dispose of nuclear waste I believe that we are creating a larger problem than we are solving. This is my concern. When we have solved this problem then it will be "safe" to proceed full speed ahead.

I could present a better case if I were allowed, in this blog, to link to sources of data.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I see 99L Is forecast to cross Costa Rica into the EPAC = good news!!!
Not really, those are just the first runs on the models, they'll straighten out into more of an accurate track in a day or two. Remember the models didnt forecast paula to form and we got a cat. 2 out of it. be prepared...
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463. Skyepony (Mod)

This frame right now (& it will change) has a digital blacked out spec in the eye?
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Quoting Seastep:


Disagree entirely.

How many plants were built after 1979. At the time, the US energy policy was to have over 2000 built.

We have 100 or so.

It's not an issue of profitability.
You know what you know.
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459. Skyepony (Mod)
Better preforming models prefer landfall near the north end of the Philippines.

OFCL wind forecast.. dark red is Cat 5 winds.

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imo 99l's pho center is caput,the area south of jamaica is the one to watch as it moves wnw over the next 24hrs,notice the inverted v pattern in the newly formed convection,THIS is the area that w/ likely be the spark that will light the fire of future tricky dicky......
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456. Skyepony (Mod)
Average Error (nm) MEGI
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
AVNO INCREASING 41.9 80.5 156 -1 -1
JMAE INCREASING 47.3 99.9 151.8 -1 -1
JTWC INCREASING 53.7 106 169.7 -1 -1
KHRA INCREASING 140.4 245.2 393.1 -1 -1
KHRM INCREASING 142.3 246.1 378.1 -1 -1
KXTR INCREASING 154.4 364.1 653.9 -1 -1
MM5B INCREASING 80 140.8 232.9 359.7 329.8
MM5E CONSTANT 0 0 0 0 0
UKMT INCREASING 45.3 77.4 153.8 -1 -1
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to be come name lol
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we this need 99L and i have a full house
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.