September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Tropical Storm Nana 2008 formed about where the 10% circle is in October. Although she died rather quickly afterward.
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553. HCW
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10965
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I am sorry to say but, they are not prepared. Not everyone can evac. I have been there when a thunderstorm has come through and the roads practically flood within minutes. could not imagine what conditions will be like in a Cat 5 Super-typhoon.

I'm just basing mine off recent History a typhoon at about the same intensity at the same location did very little, Manila and many of the small islands I know are unprepared, but Juan will miss them. But I wasn't there, I hope everyone there stays safe.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NOT LIKELY...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

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Quoting AussieStorm:

where did you get that picture from? link please

From Wikipedia
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547. IKE
Looks like the NHC has changed direction on 99L's movement....no more NW movement....

AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NOT LIKELY...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

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Quoting all4hurricanes:

Typhoon Cimarron hit the Phillipines as a Cat 5 in 2006, there were less than 20 deaths and 10-20 million in damage the Philippines are prepared and hopefully they will come out fine

I am sorry to say but, they are not prepared. Not everyone can evac. I have been there when a thunderstorm has come through and the roads practically flood within minutes. could not imagine what conditions will be like in a Cat 5 Super-typhoon.
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Typhoon Cimarron hit the Phillipines as a Cat 5 in 2006, there were less than 20 deaths and 10-20 million in damage the Philippines are prepared and hopefully they will come out fine
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I'm currently watching Hurricane Gustav making landfall. It's on a WC program called Tornado road.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
And I thought our weather service was bad about keeping people updated. Glad to know your wife's family will not be affected.

its cause there area of responsibility is so small. which is bad for the country.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I am fine, just been avoiding this blog cause of the way it treated StormW.

My wife's Family will not be effected by this Super Typhoon. I am keeping friends we have that may be effected updated cause PAGASA has only been giving warning for 24hrs now. I told them on Thursday, its now Sunday night. Megi will make landfall in about 12hrs or at about 7am Philippines time. Keep an eye on typhoonfury.com
And I thought our weather service was bad about keeping people updated. Glad to know your wife's family will not be affected.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning/evening Aussie. I was thinking of you last night as I haven't seen you on here for a while. I know your wife's family is in the Philippines and pray they remain safe from Megi.

I am fine, just been avoiding this blog cause of the way it treated StormW.

My wife's Family will not be effected by this Super Typhoon. I am keeping friends we have that may be effected updated cause PAGASA has only been giving warning for 24hrs now. I told them on Thursday, its now Sunday night. Megi will make landfall in about 12hrs or at about 7am Philippines time. Keep an eye on typhoonfury.com
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Looming super typhoon Juan 1st of strong cyclones to come

State weather forecasters on Saturday said typhoon "Juan" (Megi) – predicted to become a super typhoon once it makes landfall in northern Luzon on Monday – signals the start of a series of powerful storms for the remaining three months of the year.

Four areas were placed under Signal No. 1 as Juan continued on its course toward the Cagayan Valley region as of the 11 p.m. weather bulletin issued late Saturday.

Nathaniel Servando, deputy administrator of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said that while Juan is so far the strongest weather disturbance to visit the country this year, the public can expect similar, if not more powerful, storms after it.

"He is the greatest so far, but the projection for this year is that the most powerful storms are yet to come," Sevando said.

"Normally, during the last three months of the year, we see really strong storms...and we also have La Nina," he added.

According to PAGASA, around 20 to 21 cyclones visit the country every year on the average. Juan is the 10th cyclone to enter Philippine territory this year.
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reading the ads this morning porsche would be nice they are becoming more family orientated. i can not afford to pay the speeding tickets. the other ad lower taxes! come on political ads have been saying that for yrs has anyone with anyone seen lower taxes. hell no have fun with the weather.
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Good Morning...
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534. IKE
Miami extended...

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BREAK DOWN MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

A NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO WORK BACK
INTO THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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Even if it relocates further E i still think it gets buried over SA.
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Strong convection starting to wrap around the eye of MEGI

""
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It was fairly easy to see with HP to the N there was no way 99L was going to have a chance to pull a Paula. Global models have been consistently showing strong HP building in over the GOM. I think Levi is a very smart guy and i enjoy watching his videos but i think he just over analyzed this one. It's best sometimes just to look at the simple pieces of the puzzle.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

where did you get that picture from? link please
Good morning/evening Aussie. I was thinking of you last night as I haven't seen you on here for a while. I know your wife's family is in the Philippines and pray they remain safe from Megi.
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Look how strong is the wind in Cagayan:

(during Megi's wrath)

where did you get that picture from? link please
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Look how strong is the wind in Cagayan:

(during Megi's wrath)
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520. IKE
Looks like 99L would get forced west by a building ridge of high pressure over the GOM by the end of next week. The high builds in after the trough moves through(about Wednesday)....

144 hour GFS...




168 hour GFS...

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519. IKE
For some reason that link never updated.


Here.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
WESTERN PANAMA IS PRODUCING LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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Anyone know why the 2 AM TWO wasn't released?
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517. IKE
Possible Development in Caribbean

Oct 17, 2010 5:30 AM


Most of the Atlantic basin is quiet this weekend, but AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean. Widespread thunderstorm activity is noted across this area of the Caribbean in association with a broad area of low pressure. Warm waters and light wind shear, both favorable for developing tropical systems, are present over this portion of the Caribbean. Thus, tropical development is possible in the region through early next week. The steering flow would likely take this tropical feature into Central America sometime next week. However, a piece of the system could break away come north toward Cuba, but strong westerly winds aloft across the Gulf would cause a hostile environment for development.

Elsewhere, conditions are very quiet with no significant threats for tropical development through the end of the weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

..............................................

6Z GFS@ 144 hours takes the energy from 99L into the east-Pac...


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Quoting robert88:


Beautiful but going to be a very deadly storm.


Aye.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Perfect CDO, perfect structure. Not often you see that.


Beautiful but going to be a very deadly storm.
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Quoting robert88:
Whoaaa!!!

""


Perfect CDO, perfect structure. Not often you see that.
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Whoaaa!!!

""
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Link
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google earth recon data for ST Megi http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/west/archive/storm.cgi?year=2010&storm=Megi&product=URPA12
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Here is the pic on the wunderground tropical homepage for global SSTs. However, I changed it so that all temps above 26C -> 79F are red, and all above 85F are black.

It gives you a much better idea of how warm the atlantic still is, as well as the west pacific.

Also, the ridiculous effects of ocean currents! You got water barely above 60F at the equator off of South America, and water of 70F 400 miles south of South Africa (40 degrees south). Pretty insane.




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Quoting MoltenIce:
I shuddered...


My mom is on a flight to the Philippines right now as we speak, leaving from Guam to Manila. Luckily, after landing in Manila, she will head to her final destination which is closer to the southern end of the Philippines. Still, I hope to God she comes back home safe and sound.
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99L slowly percolating in the SW Caribbean Sea

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I shuddered...
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Good evening/good morning. I posted another article on the Ft Worth Weather Examiner Link. I invite everyone to take a look :O)!

Oh, I see we have 99L in the far SW Caribbean Sea. The TWO has it at 20%, the next several days will be rather interesting!
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505. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 17 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (910 hPa) located at 18.5N 126.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
270 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
220 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 121.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.1N 117.6E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.3N 115.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
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Quoting Skyepony:
The 00Z Early-cycle intensity guidance is all for 99L being named..


Not only do they support being named they also support 99L becoming Hurricane Richard at some point. There's only one model below Cat 1 status and that's only by 2-3 knots.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.