September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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New advisory for Megi is in. Winds have increased to 180mph (1-minute sustained). Gusts are up to 220mph.

1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 125.1E

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting JRRP:

200mph ??
Yes. Very impressive.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Grothar..That is a bad one, maybe it will go through an eye wall regeneration cycle before it hits. Wishful thinking on my part. I hope you are doing well.. I wonder if Oz is there..;0

I am not there yet, I am still in Sydney but i wish i was there with James Reynolds,Geoff Mackley, Bradley Ambrose and Mark Thomas.
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600. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Link
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
912mb (26.93 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 174 knots (200 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
850mb 622m (2,041 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 105° (from the ESE) 176 knots (203 mph)
700mb 2,303m (7,556 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 140° (from the SE) 136 knots (157 mph)

200mph ??
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CDO just about to hit the coast.
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ADT says Megi has winds of 175mph and a pressure of 884mb.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 884.7mb/152.0kt

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link?



Link
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
912mb (26.93 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 174 knots (200 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
850mb 622m (2,041 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 105° (from the ESE) 176 knots (203 mph)
700mb 2,303m (7,556 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 140° (from the SE) 136 knots (157 mph)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If that recon is correct with the 200 mph SFC winds, Megi is the equivalent of a low end 200 mile wide EF5 tornado.
Link?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Hey, barbamz. Long time no see! They would not have to ask me twice to evacuate.
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If that recon is correct with the 200 mph SFC winds, Megi is the equivalent of a low end 200 mile wide EF5 tornado.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Orca, where do you find the text for the Recon data for Megi?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Grothar..That is a bad one, maybe it will go through an eye wall regeneration cycle before it hits. Wishful thinking on my part. I hope you are doing well.. I wonder if Oz is there..;0


Yo!. Yeah, it is a bad one. Don't know why the images I post keep changing. They are not the images I am posting. Must be old age. How you doing, hy??
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James Reynolds at typhoonfury.com has actually flown down to put himself in the way of this monster. Tweeting about it @ http://twitter.com/typhoonfury
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Cagayan folk flee ahead of typhoon ‘Juan’
abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 10/17/2010 9:42 PM | Updated as of 10/17/2010 9:43 PM


TUGUEGARAO CITY, Philippines - Residents of low-lying areas in Cagayan Valley have fled for higher ground as typhoon Juan (international name Megi) approaches the province.

They voluntarily left their homes starting Saturday, a day before local government agencies were scheduled to lead evacuation efforts, according to Benito Ramos, executive officer of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Ramos, the concurrent administrator of the Office of Civil Defense, said the voluntary evacuation of the residents, particularly those along the Cagayan river, are still ongoing as of press time. He said many people went to their relatives living in higher grounds.

However, he did not give a total number of the people who evacuated. "We cannot give a count because it’s ongoing… We cannot quantify as of now because they are still evacuation is continuing," he said.

He said the residents have learned their lessons from typhoon Pepeng that caused massive flooding in the region last year.

"They are now on the higher ground and did not wait for government [to evacuate them]," he said. "This is the lesson taught to us by nature. That is why we are having no problem in evacuating now."

Ramos said the government will not be responsible to those who will refuse to heed the call of the authorities to evacuate from the risk areas.

"That will not be our responsibility…If they do not evacuate, that will not be our fault," he said, adding they will not forcibly evacuate the residents. He said Army soldiers have been going to the barangays to inform the residents of the coming typhoon.

Juan is expected to make landfall over Cagayan Valley on Monday morning.

Signal number 4 over Cagayan, Isabela

The typhoon has further intensified, with public storm warning signal number 4 raised over Cagayan and Isabela provinces, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration.

As of 6:00 p.m. Sunday, the typhoon was located 360 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, and is moving westward at 22 kilometers per hour (kph).

It has maximum sustained winds of 225 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 260 kph.

more: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/10/17/10/cagayan-folk-flee-ahead-typhoon-%E2%80%98juan%E2%80%99
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Quoting Grothar:
Good morning Grothar..That is a bad one, maybe it will go through an eye wall regeneration cycle before it hits. Wishful thinking on my part. I hope you are doing well.. I wonder if Oz is there..;0
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Quoting shikori:
i wish i was there to experience that energy.

no you don't you couldn't even stand up. you'll be blown around like a rag doll.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Another energy maybe is a little star made east of San Francisco by the biggest laser ever. They tested it this week.


One day we could all be driving Ford "Fusions"?

I am for all alternative energy too. Solar, Wind, (fusion really is the holy grail), BioDiesel. Not AS crazy about ethanol as it competes with Food.

In the begining Hybrid cars until rapid charge eletrical cars are invented along with a charging station infrastructure.

We will always need coal, oil, and natural gas just not as much.

Good Article skyepony...
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580. JRRP
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pretty historical readings, I have never seen 200mph sfc winds in any report of any cyclone ever! Northern outflow looks a bit restricted so maybe reached max intensity.
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Looks like the models have a good handle on where 99L is going!



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573. Great scott.. 200 mph SFC winds.
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It has probably reached its MPI (890mb and 150kts). Unbelievable presentation Satellite, quite incredible...
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573. amd
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Flight level winds in Megi are ~215 mph. SFC winds are nearing 190.


A dropsonde measured surface winds of 200 mph in the NW quandrant.


Product: Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZPA13 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 18.2N 125.3E (View map)
Marsden Square: 060 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
912mb (26.93 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 174 knots (200 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
850mb 622m (2,041 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 105° (from the ESE) 176 knots (203 mph)
700mb 2,303m (7,556 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 140° (from the SE) 136 knots (157 mph)
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Flight level winds in Megi are ~215 mph. SFC winds are nearing 190.
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Megi reminds me of Cyclone Monica a few year back.
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Highest surface winds found in Megi..
163kts
(~187.4mph)

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when did they start flying into pacific storms again?
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as i stated last night,the area to watch is the area of surface convergence very close to 14n,79w,THAT will be the feature that might develop intoo future richie as it moves wnw thru 24hrs,bette than 50% chance of tc devlopment over next 48hrs imo
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565. That's very impressive. 893 mb is almost as strong as the Labor Day Hurricane. Frequent lightning too in the eyewall.. sign of intensification.
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Latest Google earth tracking of the HH into Megi
Link
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893Mb 175mph in NW quadrant and 190Kt flight level - gulp

latest vortex message:
Product: Vortex Message (URPA12 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°01'N 125°05'E (18.0167N 125.0833E)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,151m (7,057ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 266° at 152kts (From the W at ~ 174.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 893mb (26.37 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE EYEWALL
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Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sure is quite today.
Yep.
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Sure is quite today.
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558. HCW
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm currently watching Hurricane Gustav making landfall. It's on a WC program called Tornado road.


I remember that day.. there was a lot of panic on here from Gustav.
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GeoffreyWPB them models are going to move further north till they get in line with what the rest of the global models was showing earler a move northbound into the NW caribbean
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Tropical Storm Nana 2008 formed about where the 10% circle is in October. Although she died rather quickly afterward.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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