September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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654. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRES CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC E-NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NW THROUGH WED. AN EMBEDDED WEAK
LOW CENTER NEAR 12N79W WILL DRIFT NW WITHIN THE LARGER
CIRCULATION AND REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY LATE TUE...WHERE
IT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC WILL SINK S AND INTO FAR N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N
ATLC LATE MON AND BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WED.
..........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF SW TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE.


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Blog Update!
Super Typhoon Megi 10/17/10
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24034
Quoting hurristat:


Actually, Megi's a bit weaker than Rita -- the average pressure is lower on that side of the planet, and it is easier for storms over there to reach those low pressures. So Rita's still a bit stronger.


Um, no, cuz Rita never had 200 mph surface winds and 220 mph flight level. Not sure why the advisory intensity was kept at 180 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days



I'll take Beef with Broccoli.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm going out for a while...
Recap:
Cat. 5 MEGI 180 MPH Storm with 895 MB pressure
99L still Disorganized for the time being
PGI61L tropical wave predicted to get into conducive environment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cat5Hurricane250:
895 mb and 180 mph are the exact stats Hurricane Rita had when she peaked in the Gulf of Mexico.


Actually, Megi's a bit weaker than Rita -- the average pressure is lower on that side of the planet, and it is easier for storms over there to reach those low pressures. So Rita's still a bit stronger.
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whats even worse is that Megi is going to hit luzon in the early morning, no light but lightning.
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Steering Layer: 500-850 hPa for western pacific


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646. JRRP

Megi SE of China
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Both the GFS 00z and 06z predict that a EPAC syetem forms from 99L and goes into the BOC and causes a trough spilt to occur and creates a tropical depression. It also shows tropical Wave PGI61L from and head for the northern islands in a bout a week.
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Quoting Ameister12:

If the pressure drops 13 more millibars, we will be dealing with a cyclone the intensity of Wilma.


Yes and no.

The Pacific has lower pressures in general than the Atlantic, there's not a direct comparison when talking about pressure.

If Wilma was put in the Pacific, she would have been stronger than Tip.
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I asked my friend from the Philippines and she says they are not prepared at all. Megi is small for a 5 and hopefully he won't cause to much flooding.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days



huh what 90L oh you mean PGI-61L ok I get it but please do not call it 90L when it is not but you can call it PRE-90l but don't call it 90L but anyway

I say
1 is A-B most likely B
2 is B-C most likely C but there is a possibility that it is B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days

I chose A and A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
640. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days


1) A. 10%
2) A. 20%
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
I beleive the GOM could support a Cat2 storm but, a Cat3 or higher might be difficult unless Shear was completely neal.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Aqua MODIS caught a perfect shot of Megi at 4:55 UTC.


Wow! Talk about a beautiful disaster.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
hydrus blob BLOB BLOB!!!!!! THAT IS PAULA YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT
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Aqua MODIS caught a perfect shot of Megi at 5:00 UTC.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow.



Wow is right
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She's huge!

Imagine if she was in the GOM. Yikes!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Wow.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
just as I thought they moved the low to 99L right location



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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Interesting little blob..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21239
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Quoting Cat5Hurricane250:
895 mb and 180 mph are the exact stats Hurricane Rita had when she peaked in the Gulf of Mexico.

If the pressure drops 13 more millibars, we will be dealing with a cyclone the intensity of Wilma.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Quoting hydrus:
Either that guy is crazy. or he is risking his life in the nace of science...
Not nesesairly either or proposition.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo!. Yeah, it is a bad one. Don't know why the images I post keep changing. They are not the images I am posting. Must be old age. How you doing, hy??
Busy... Hope these people are ready..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21239
Quoting Hydrus:
Either that guy is crazy. or he is risking his life in the name of science...


The lack of activity here in the Pacific got to him so he went abseiling down to a volcano's lava lake a month or so ago.

But he's not so crazy as to decamp from his current position to try and drive south across rural Philippines in the dark to try and get in to the eyewall of this thing.
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895 mb and 180 mph are the exact stats Hurricane Rita had when she peaked in the Gulf of Mexico.
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620. JRRP

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180mph. Gusts are up to 220mph.

Thanks. Megi will defiantly go down in history as one of the strongest tropical cyclones.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
I noted the on the weather underground page winds for at200512
Super Typhoon Megi is up too 180mph ouch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
617. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. Very impressive.

yea
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey, barbamz. Long time no see! They would not have to ask me twice to evacuate.


Hey Grothar! Yes, I've been out to Crete for holidays. Luckily no huricanes there like baaad Megi.
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Quoting Ameister12:

What are the winds? 190 mph?
180mph. Gusts are up to 220mph.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
According to the JMA (official source), it's down to 895mb.

What are the winds? 190 mph?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Tropical Update Oct. 17th. 2010
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Man oh Man. Hold on tight those in Megi's path. That thing is a super monster...
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Looks like Models don't know if anything will devleop or not. Gotta love ebay auctions that end on Sunday morning. I just bought 4 Lightning Tickets 4pizzas and 4 drinks for $14.99 ....NICE!!!
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Invest 99L
16Oct 12amGMT deleted by NHC *9.8n78.7w*20knots*1009mb
16Oct 06amGMT - - 10.8n75.1w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.3w
16Oct 12pmGMT - - 10.9n75.7w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.8w
16Oct 06pmGMT - - 11.0n76.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.7n80.3w
17Oct 12amGMT - - 11.1n76.9w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.5n80.8w
17Oct 06amGMT - - 11.3n77.6w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *10.3n81.2w
17Oct 12pmGMT - - 11.5n78.2w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
Copy&paste 10.8n75.1w, 10.9n75.7w-11.0n76.3w, 11.0n76.3w-11.1n76.9w, 11.1n76.9w-11.3n77.6w, 11.3n77.6w-11.5n78.2w, bef, trb into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours.
^ In four 6hour line-segments
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What's the pressure down too?
According to the JMA (official source), it's down to 895mb.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
James Reynolds at typhoonfury.com has actually flown down to put himself in the way of this monster. Tweeting about it @ http://twitter.com/typhoonfury
Either that guy is crazy. or he is risking his life in the name of science...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21239
In case you need a map to find out where Aparri is in the Philippines and where our fearless TyphoonHunter is waiting for Megi.

Google Maps of Aparri, PI
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What's the pressure down too?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24034
15UTC Prognostic Reasoning:

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MEGI HAS INTENSIFIED TO
THE UPPER REACHES OF SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. CURRENT DVORAK EYE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ESTIMATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ELEVATED 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 155 KNOTS. A
STRENGTHENED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS SUPPORTED THIS
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST. EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT AROUND 15 DEG CELCIUS AND THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS RANGED FROM 20 TO 25 NM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT LUZON. THE SYSTEM
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LUZON IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS AND
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY. IT WILL EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND 18/12Z, REORGANIZE, AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. AROUND THIS TIME THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN NORTH OF WEST TO THE EAST OF
HAINAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM SIX HOURS
AGO. GFS REMAINS THE LONE OUTLIER THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND
STALLS THE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST OF LUZON FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS, THEN
JERKS THE TRACK PECULIARLY NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING
RIDES THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING/RETREATING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST, TO INCLUDE NOGAPS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MEGI WILL TURN TOWARDS A BUILDING
WEAKENESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS THE SOURCE OF THIS WEAKNESS. THERE
IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE AMONG THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NONTHELESS, THE 15Z JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO.//
NNNN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
New advisory for Megi is in. Winds have increased to 180mph (1-minute sustained). Gusts are up to 220mph.

1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 125.1E

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.