September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Hurricane for Florida next week....what are the odds...anyone in the danger zone???
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Good morning :O). WOW, the Western Pacific has come alive. My prayers go out in advance for the people in the Philippines, that Typhoon means business with those 105 KT winds and that tiny pin-hoke eye!

I now publish a daily news article for "Examiner.com", a nationwide online newspaper. I publish for the "Ft. Worth Weather Examiner". Please feel free to stop by, you may leave your comments and I do refer to Weather Underground in each article. I will add additional links to Dr. M's daily WU blog in my following articles.

Here is the Link.
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79. Neapolitan

Might want to check your numbers.

How much do scientists get for a pro-AGW stance?

How much do scientists get that have not come to that conclusion yet?

And, no, it is not even close to being a fact. Might it be? Possible, but I doubt it. There are ice ages and then the earth warms until the next ice age. Then it happens all over again. Don't know because there is not enough data to say CO2 trumps nature and doubt there ever will be. We'll see.

Just one example would be the Himalayan glaciers. Way overestimated (proved and admitted false) and said scientist, because of that "science," got $500K for his efforts.

“We thought that if we can highlight it, it will impact policy makers and politicians and encourage them to take some concrete action.” In other words, Rose says, Lal “last night admitted [the scary figure] was included purely to put political pressure on world leaders.”

Link

And yet, questioning is not allowed? You may buy everything hook, line, and sinker, but I don't.

Oh, and that $500K is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of funding.

Sorry, AGW proponents win out big-time on the money front. It's not even close.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
What's most amazing to me, and what gives me hope for mankinds future, is that despite the many millions of dollars Big Energy is offering, >97% of the world's actual climate scientists have refused to sell their credibility for a few dollars. Now, it can be claimed that perhaps there's "green" money being offered, as well. Okay, fine...but is it possible that those evil green forces are outbidding Big Energy by a margin of more than 32-to-1?



There is more than ample evidence that any met scientist desiring funding must comply with certain bias prior to obtaining funding. One of those is embracing the concept of AGW.

Money is flowing freely and copiously, from AGW proponents, into the meteorological world and it is destroying the very fabric on which is based.

It is humorous that we can declare Big Energy as evil and yet look the other way as a different set of individuals with identical monetary desires are simply using alternative methods to acquire additional wealth. Like Tom Cruise said in 'Jerry McGuire' 'Show me the money!!'

It is all about the money.

Time to go back to being scientists and let the aristocrats and politicians to do what they always do.

BTW...

MIMIC-TPW has been suprisingly precise in showing what the tropical weather pattern is really like. Anyone following it prior to Paula turning toward Cuba would not have been surprised. I believe it will gain in popularity as people see just how remarkable it really is.
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Ugh. You can never trust wiki.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Prognostic reasoning courtesy of the JTWC:

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MEGI HAS YET TO DEVELOP A WELL-
DEFINED EYE DESPITE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A DATA-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF 5.5 FROM PGTW. A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE CAN BE EVIDENCED IN CERTAIN INFRARED ENHANCEMENTS,
WHICH HAS PROVIDED HIGH POSITION CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA HAS LIKELY STALLED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION BY LIMITING EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS INTO
A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CELL LOCATED NEAR 17N 152E. THE TRACK
HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEST ASIA CONFIRM A BUILDING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN
RESPONSE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS HINTING AT ANOTHER
PASSING TROUGH.
B. MEGI IS STILL SLATED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE AND GLANCE LUZON
SHORTLY AFTER 18/00Z AROUND SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH, ASSUMING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FILLS. NOGAPS AND WBAR HAVE WALKED
TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST OVER THE
PAST 2 RUNS. NEARLY ALL THE TRACKERS INDICATE THE STEERING RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON. IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF TRACK, AS THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SUGGEST, THEN MORE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR.
REGARDLESS, REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
C. AS STATED IN PARA 3.A. THE TRACK HAS SLOWED BEYOND TAU
72. NEARLY ALL THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE INDICATING A SLOW DOWN AROUND
THIS TIME, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH.//
NNNN

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
OMG boring weather for october lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Megi intensifies. Winds have increased to 120mph (1-minute sustained). Gusts are up at 150mph (1-minute sustained).

1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 130.2E

Difficult to believe that's it; Megi/Juan's satellite presentation looks about as healthy as any I've seen this year.
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Well organized Category 3 Typhoon. Miami might be right, this could be nearing Category 4 status already.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Lol It started with an "8" here.


Lol wow. It ended with an "8" here. Well, almost. Was 39 lol.
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Looks like Megi won't be satisfied just by striking the Philippines. Looks like it wants to strike twice.

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Quoting hunkerdown:
hence the blogging experts comment...you can post etimates and figures all you want but there is only one entity that posts "official" classification. Will it get upgraded in the future ala Andrew, maybe but I doubt it.


Your being ridiculous. I'm allowed to have a discussion. The NHC will probably upgrade it, then again they might not. I'm just posting the data that supports it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Megi intensifies. Winds have increased to 120mph (1-minute sustained). Gusts are up at 150mph (1-minute sustained).

1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 130.2E
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Someone probably got bored and edited the article, last year I saw wiki show Ana as a Category 4 hurricane.

LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Igor was likely a Category 5. Satellite estimates indicated it was one at least once, probably twice on the 14th and the 15th of September. Given the fact there was no recon in Igor at the time it obtained peak intensity, they have little evidence to disprove Igor did not get just 1 mph stronger and became a low end Category 5 hurricane.
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, KL, I, 1, 7070 /////, , , , LLCC, T, DT=7.0 BO EYE MET=7.0 PT=7.0 FTBO DT PA=10 NMI
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, JA, I,

If Igor was in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, I have little doubt it would have been operationally considered a Category 5.
hence the blogging experts comment...you can post etimates and figures all you want but there is only one entity that posts "official" classification. Will it get upgraded in the future ala Andrew, maybe but I doubt it.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


It started with a "3" here in Macon, GA this morning.

Lol It started with an "8" here.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
dude, do you understand wikipedia is not an official site and what is posted on it are not all facts...its a web page that can be edited by just about anybody.


Someone probably got bored and edited the article, last year I saw wiki show Ana as a Category 4 hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting, this is the RPM model from BayNews9 in 50 hours. I didn't know they had a model.

That's one scary model.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Temperature started with a "5" here this morning... brrrrrrr.


It started with a "3" here in Macon, GA this morning.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So the only one that doesn't develop it in any form is the ECMWF?


Yup. And its own ensembles develop it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting hunkerdown:
dude, do you understand wikipedia is not an official site and what is posted on it are not all facts...its a web page that can be edited by just about anybody.

Yeah, it's pretty worthless once you think about it. Let's look at Megi as we wait for something to form in the Atlantic.
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Interesting, this is the RPM model from BayNews9 in 50 hours. I didn't know they had a model.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good model support on Richard forming in the SW Caribbean next week from the GFS, CMC/GGEM, NOGAPS, GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles. The UKMET seems to have a weak TD in the Caribbean. The ECMWF has nothing.

Caribbean AOI. I do not expect the NHC to raise the odds of development until later tonight or tomorrow morning.

So the only one that doesn't develop it in any form is the ECMWF?
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Absolutely amazing typhoon. This is probably a category 4 by now.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
What's most amazing to me, and what gives me hope for mankinds future, is that despite the many millions of dollars Big Energy is offering, >97% of the world's actual climate scientists have refused to sell their credibility for a few dollars. Now, it can be claimed that perhaps there's "green" money being offered, as well. Okay, fine...but is it possible that those evil green forces are outbidding Big Energy by a margin of more than 32-to-1?

No. The fact is, far more scientists are convinced of AGW than aren't. Period.
Quoting calusakat:
If I came to you and said that I had performed comprehensive research into the safety and effectiveness of drugs manufactured by Eli Lily and declared them all to be safe for human consumption, you might want to believe me. Then if you were to discover that the research had been paid for by that same company, you would all look at me and start shaking your heads and accuse me of bias in my findings.

My point exactly! Thanks for backing me up. When Big Energy says "The planet's not warming," I take it with as big a grain of salt as I do when Reynolds Tobacco says "Cigarettes don't cause lung cancer" or McDonalds proclaims "Eating three Big Macs a day is not bad for your health". One need only look around the globe to see that Big Energy's negative effects on the enviroment outweigh its positive effects by roughly infinity-to-zero.
Quoting calusakat:
Lets go back to being unbiased scientists and stop ridiculing each other because we see things differently from each other. Those differences are part of the process that helps us learn how to better observe and then predict the weather.

Well, okay...and I'll even try to forget that you began your comment by calling me a comedian. ;-) Seriously, though: questioning the motives behind any piece of science isn't ridiculing; it's all part of the scientific process...much to the dismay of some entrenched fossil fuel interests.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Which is why Wikipedia showed that it turned out to be a 5 during post-storm analysis.
dude, do you understand wikipedia is not an official site and what is posted on it are not all facts...its a web page that can be edited by just about anybody.
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Good model support on Richard forming in the SW Caribbean next week from the GFS, CMC/GGEM, NOGAPS, GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles. The UKMET seems to have a weak TD in the Caribbean. The ECMWF has nothing.

Caribbean AOI. I do not expect the NHC to raise the odds of development until later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting FLdewey:
Temperature started with a "5" here this morning... brrrrrrr.
Geez..Where are you?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22259
WOW, EXCUSE ME...

We have some bloggers that really took their
a$$hole pills this morning huh!

Why do some people have to always "prove" others wrong..
especially when all we are talking about are opinions.

so insecure in your own skin you have to make sure you feel important at least to yourself???



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Re: Post 48. 954FtLCane 1:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2010

According to US Bureau of Statistics global population in 2070 will likely exceed 18 billion people.

Why worry about the weather/AGW, when pollution will outstrip our ability to deal with it as those population numbers are reached.

Lets all work on making sure that the data we are gathering is as accurate as possible, when it is generated, and not resort to biased fudging. Lets demand certification of each weather site as to placement, accuracy and maintenance. We must stop fudging the data because we irresponsibly cut corners as we manage those weather sites worldwide.

That is the only way that meteorology can contribute to the safety and well being of all those who live here now and in the future. Being 'Chicken Little' and hysterically declaring that the sky is falling will only delay the development of more accurate systems of weather prediction.
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seem if the we are not getting landfalls worldwide this yr could it be because the ridges as well as the troughs are stronger. northward headed systems seem to be a safe way out in the northern hemisphere. need to watch the strong itz disturbance in the sw carib.
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The eye can be best seen on Dvorak.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Igor was likely a Category 5. Satellite estimates indicated it was one at least once, probably twice on the 14th and the 15th of September. Given the fact there was no recon in Igor at the time it obtained peak intensity, they have little evidence to disprove Igor did not get just 1 mph stronger and became a low end Category 5 hurricane.
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, KL, I, 1, 7070 /////, , , , LLCC, T, DT=7.0 BO EYE MET=7.0 PT=7.0 FTBO DT PA=10 NMI
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, JA, I,

If Igor was in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, I have little doubt it would have been operationally considered a Category 5.

Which is why Wikipedia showed that it turned out to be a 5 during post-storm analysis.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Igor was likely a Category 5. Satellite estimates indicated it was one at least once, probably twice on the 14th and the 15th of September. Given the fact there was no recon in Igor at the time it obtained peak intensity, they have little evidence to disprove Igor did not get just 1 mph stronger and became a low end Category 5 hurricane.
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, KL, I, 1, 7070 /////, , , , LLCC, T, DT=7.0 BO EYE MET=7.0 PT=7.0 FTBO DT PA=1u0 NMI
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, JA, I,

If Igor was in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, I have little doubt it would have been operationally considered a Category 5.
....i was chatting with cantore on twitter about that,is their really away to distiguish the differnce between a strong cat 4 and cat 5 based on sat estimates,no way imo
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If you click here to see the full image you might just be able to make out the pinhole eye associated with Megi. (Remember to move your monitor for the best affect).


I see it!
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Before we re-engineer our current social/political/economic and perhaps religious structures, IMHO shouldn't we exhaustively review all so-called consensus (majority) opinion and dissenting (minority) opinions and hypotheses, and debate, review and verify their data, analyses, and experimentation in a clear, open and fair manner?

What I hope in the meantime is that we can all agree to pollute this beautiful planet Earth as little as possible so as not to significantly sacrifice the global economy. Do any of us really want to live amongst garbage, drink dirty water, and breath dirty air? If we try to minimize our waste, by reducing, recycling, and reusing, the world we leave for our decedents will be a better place than where it's currently headed.

Am I asking too much?

x10^23
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wow!!!! eye coming soon.
Member Since: September 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
Wow! ADT for Megi, RAW jumped up to 6.7.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 955.7mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 6.7

This is becoming a very powerful Typhoon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
If you click here to see the full image you might just be able to make out the pinhole eye associated with Megi. (Remember to move your monitor for the best affect).

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 954FtLCane:

The Keys and Miami are not considered the US so if I lived there I would monitor situations closely.
Thanks for the de-citizenship comment...LOL Some here actually might be from another planet, and during Fantasy Fest coming soon in Key West, it might look like that way. {chuckle}
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Quoting hunkerdown:
you mean from all of the WUnderground blog "experts"...no and no.


Igor was likely a Category 5. Satellite estimates indicated it was one at least once, probably twice on the 14th and the 15th of September. Given the fact there was no recon in Igor at the time it obtained peak intensity, they have little evidence to disprove Igor did not get just 1 mph stronger and became a low end Category 5 hurricane.
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, KL, I, 1, 7070 /////, , , , LLCC, T, DT=7.0 BO EYE MET=7.0 PT=7.0 FTBO DT PA=10 NMI
AL, 11, 201009142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1890N, 5340W, , 1, 140, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, JA, I,

If Igor was in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, I have little doubt it would have been operationally considered a Category 5.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Oh no.
Yeah, it appears to me like Megi may begin to rapidly intensify as the system moves over 29C+ waters, 5 knots of vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. An impressive eyewall with cloud tops as cold as -80C are present along with a warming pinhole eye.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Vincent4989:

Haha! im right its going to be pinhole (yesterday's update)

Where in the Philippines do you live? Manila or north?
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Good Morning!

The season's definitely winding down since the blog topics are moving toward all AGW...LOL That's the time of year I stay away. I'm not into arguing politics or religion. If scientific data and experimentation were being discussed, analyzed and reviewed, I might be interested but unfortunately most inject politics and/or religion into global climate research and that chases me away. IMHO, one should not draw conclusions with limited observations, experimentation, and analysis yet have strong beliefs; those would be a hypotheses and opinions - not conclusions.

A few centuries past there was a consensus theory that the Earth was flat, and another that the earth was the center of the universe. Thank goodness for Nikolas Capernicus, Aristotle and other dissenters of their days. Dissenter ("Deniers") are not always more correct but science must always respect and review their findings and conclusions. What if Einstein and others had not questioned Newton's theories?

Nikolas Capernicus was the Polish scientist (1473-1543) who discovered the heliocentric universe (i.e., that the sun was the center of the known universe and the planets revolved around the sun). The church at that time viewed his findings scandalous because they refuted their Ptolemaic worldview (that is, the universe — including the sun — revolved around the earth). The Capernicus Revolution gave birth to the Scientific Revolution that began in the 16th century.

The paradigm of a spherical Earth was developed in ancient Greek astronomy, beginning with Pythagoras (6th century BC), although most Pre-Socratics retained the flat Earth model. Aristotle accepted the spherical shape of the Earth on empirical grounds around 330 BC, and knowledge of the spherical Earth gradually began to spread beyond the Hellenistic world from then on.


Humankind may well have a more than a nominal effect on global climate but can we know that with only decades of data and minimal experimentation?

Before we re-engineer our current social/political/economic and perhaps religious structures, IMHO shouldn't we exhaustively review all so-called consensus (majority) opinion and dissenting (minority) opinions and hypotheses, and debate, review and verify their data, analyses, and experimentation in a clear, open and fair manner?

What I hope in the meantime is that we can all agree to pollute this beautiful planet Earth as little as possible so as not to significantly sacrifice the global economy. Do any of us really want to live amongst garbage, drink dirty water, and breath dirty air? If we try to minimize our waste, by reducing, recycling, and reusing, the world we leave for our decedents will be a better place than where it's currently headed.

Am I asking too much?

Amazing, Paula is still turning in all that shear.

NOAA SSD Floater - Visible Loop
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Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. bad news
Member Since: September 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
Quoting hurricane23:
With a negative nao being forecast, it's hard to see a u.s. landfall at this time except unless the storm gets west enough to be just off the Yucatan coast. The negative nao should keep heights pretty low across the east.

500 heights on the ECM imply ridging across the caribbean therefore turning this into CA in time.


very hard to get yes unless a front or trough picks it up like Wilma had i think if that trough hadnt came and got Wilma it would not have gone into Florida it would have probably gone into the ucitan peninsula and just drifted inland and follow a karl track more or less
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Quoting hurricane23:
With a negative nao being forecast, it's hard to see a u.s. landfall at this time except unless the storm gets west enough to be just off the Yucatan coast. The negative nao should keep heights pretty low across the east.

500 heights on the ECM imply ridging across the caribbean therefore turning this into CA in time.

The Keys and Miami are not considered the US so if I lived there I would monitor situations closely.
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With a negative NAO being forecast, it's hard to see a u.s. landfall at this time except unless the storm gets west enough to be just off the Yucatan coast. The negative nao should keep heights pretty low across the east.

500 heights on the ECM imply ridging across the caribbean therefore turning this into CA in time.
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Curiously enough, the KMZ files on the NHC site indicate that Igor obtained a peak of 160 at 000UTC on September 15th. That was the same time Igor had on the ADT and SAB a peak of 7.0.

I thought this was a glitch, as 155 is 1 mph short of Category 5 status.. but Alex obtained a peak of 110 which is 1 mph short of Category 3 status, the KMZ files do not say Alex was a Category 3.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
go belize,now we just need a long range radar in cayman and one in coastal nicarauga and the west carib will be covered!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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