September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

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September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Objectivist:

Terrible.

Something much closer to the actual truth would be:

Scientists are divided on the extent to which human-produced CO2 is affecting the Earth's temperature.


Divided is a relative term. I can say, "The world's wealth is divided between me and everyone else," and that's a true statement...but it implies that there's some sort of actual measurable balance, and in that it's unfair. JB can rant that consensus is the last refuge of a scoundrel, and there may be some validity to that in certain circles: just because 95% of bookies call for the Jets to win tomorrow does not mean they're going to win. But if I go to see 100 different orthopedic surgeons, and 97 tell me I have a compound fracture of my femur while the remaining three tell me there's nothing wrong with my leg, I'll be disinclined to believe those three--even though, yes, those orthopedic surgeons were "divided" as to the status of my leg.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Exactly to even say yes or no is completely irresponsible. No one knows at this point. Just something to watch and see how things develop.
A 'maybe' would have fit better in this occasion. Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can i borrow your crystal ball please?


Exactly to even say yes or no is completely irresponsible. No one knows at this point. Just something to watch and see how things develop.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No.


LOL!

really don't like these model runs with a blocking high to the north of a tropical system. As the high moves out from a trough the System will move up the WEst side and Florida might have a big problem coming by the end of next weekend. Something for sure to watch.
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Quoting Objectivist:

Terrible.

Something much closer to the actual truth would be:

Scientists are divided on the extent to which human-produced CO2 is affecting the Earth's temperature. The data is far from overwhelming, and numerous items such as the lack of sea level rise point to almost negligible warming. Further, purely natural factors have contributed to warming in the past (for the entire interglacial period), and other factors may completely eliminate warming over the next few decades (the current solar lull).

It is particularly important to differentiate between "natural climate change" (which has happened throughout the history of the Earth), and "anthropogenic climate change", the extent of which is highly debatable. This is a distinction many warming proponents frequently fail to make.

Climate scientists have been engaging in highly questionable practices to further their views, so their breathless pronouncements of imminent doom should be viewed skeptically for the most part.

Another oft-overlooked fact in this debate is that no matter what the Western countries do regarding CO2, less wealthy countries including China, India and Russia have refused to reduce CO2 emissions. This means two things - that if Western countries adopt expensive CO2 controls, their economies will suffer greatly, and also that those controls will make no measurable difference by 2100. This is directly admitted by the IPCC.

Due to the many uncertainties surrounding this area, and the absolute lack of a compelling reason to spend trillions of dollars in the short term, the issue should be studied with a good deal of effort for the next ten to twenty years, until we actually have a true understanding of the risks, or lack thereof.

There, much better.

In support of my contention that scientists are divided, one data point is:

The resignation of Harold Lewis, an Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara from the American Physical Society, over what he views as the global warming hoax.

There are plenty of scientists who have valid disagreements with the AGW hypothesis as currently stated.


nice post
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, he was probably showing the GFS. Any forecast beyond 5 days is low-accuracy and I tend to not pay attention to them, unless we're dealing with a well-developed tropical cyclone. Yes, you should monitor the situation, no, you shouldn't be anticipating hurricane conditions at this point in the game.


Well since 1992 and I lived in Cutler Ridge I always worry about this and try to keep on top of it. If people on here that "cheerlead" these storms only understood what they do, and I mean live with them and the afterwards they wouldn't be so cheery and "handsclapping" when one of these monsters is forming.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Want a caveat? Okay. Would something like the following work for you?:

"While the overwhelming majority of credible atmospheric scientists are looking at the overwhelming data and concluding that AGW is real and perhaps worsening at a greater rate than initially believed possible, many non-scientists, Big Energy CEOs, and anti-science politicians believe the entire thing is a hoax perpetrated by evil forces bent on preserving the planet."

How's that? ;-)

Terrible.

Something much closer to the actual truth would be:

Scientists are divided on the extent to which human-produced CO2 is affecting the Earth's temperature. The data is far from overwhelming, and numerous items such as the lack of sea level rise point to almost negligible warming. Further, purely natural factors have contributed to warming in the past (for the entire interglacial period), and other factors may completely eliminate warming over the next few decades (the current solar lull).

It is particularly important to differentiate between "natural climate change" (which has happened throughout the history of the Earth), and "anthropogenic climate change", the extent of which is highly debatable. This is a distinction many warming proponents frequently fail to make.

Climate scientists have been engaging in highly questionable practices to further their views, so their breathless pronouncements of imminent doom should be viewed skeptically for the most part.

Another oft-overlooked fact in this debate is that no matter what the Western countries do regarding CO2, less wealthy countries including China, India and Russia have refused to reduce CO2 emissions. This means two things - that if Western countries adopt expensive CO2 controls, their economies will suffer greatly, and also that those controls will make no measurable difference by 2100. This is directly admitted by the IPCC.

Due to the many uncertainties surrounding this area, and the absolute lack of a compelling reason to spend trillions of dollars in the short term, the issue should be studied with a good deal of effort for the next ten to twenty years, until we actually have a true understanding of the risks, or lack thereof.

There, much better.

In support of my contention that scientists are divided, one data point is:

The resignation of Harold Lewis, an Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara from the American Physical Society, over what he views as the global warming hoax.

There are plenty of scientists who have valid disagreements with the AGW hypothesis as currently stated.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you know you lost so you throw your "Im to good for this" attitude out there, you did it last night after you stated there was no other argument with evidence except AGW, stop being so thick headed and look at all the facts


The only thing I "did last night" was go to bed. However, there were a large number of non-scientific, head-in-the-sand, I-know-that-all-scientists-are-biased-because-Glen-Beck-told-me-so arguments that I chose to ignore, as I only have so much energy I can waste expend here. Was yours one of those, perhaps?

IOW: ***sigh***

;-)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't own any. Considering that we're dealing with a disorganized disturbance over a week away from affecting the United States (if it does) I don't see why I should tell him/her that they should anticipate hurricane conditions in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area.


Miami Hurricanes I apppreciate your honesty. I am just terrified of these storms and I read this blog and it scares me sometimes, but I can't not read it, if you know what I mean ? I have been a lurker here for a while, but just decided to join yesterday because I wanted to ask questions after I saw that post on the Dolphins forum. You might ask why it is on there, because the Dolphins play the Steelers on Sunday the 24th and the poster of that pic is a meteorologist I believe as his profession and he was trying to give us a "heads up" about it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That goes vice-versa too.

If its over a week away from impacting the USA (if it does), how can you tell someone that they will not experience it?
Because telling them that they're going to experience hurricane conditions with something over 7 days would be premature and highly inaccurate.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Looking at WV imagery I think that will be the motion NNW to N then NNE.

Sounds about right. Everyone needs to watch this area, closely!
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Quoting orthodoxkc:


Really ? WHEW !!! Because one poster at www.thephins.com (B. Sebo) posted a model pic that showed on Oct 25th a storm with 984 mb would be hugging the southern coast of Miami-Dade County. That was so scary I could hardly sleep last night.
Yes, he was probably showing the GFS. Any forecast beyond 5 days is low-accuracy and I tend to not pay attention to them, unless we're dealing with a well-developed tropical cyclone. Yes, you should monitor the situation, no, you shouldn't be anticipating hurricane conditions at this point in the game.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't own any. Considering that we're dealing with a disorganized disturbance over a week away from affecting the United States (if it does) I don't see why I should tell him/her that they should anticipate hurricane conditions in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area.


That goes vice-versa too.

If its over a week away from impacting the USA (if it does), how can you tell someone that they will not experience it?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can i borrow your crystal ball please?



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Quoting Neapolitan:


***sigh***


you know you lost so you throw your "Im to good for this" attitude out there, you did it last night after you stated there was no other argument with evidence except AGW, stop being so thick headed and look at all the facts
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can i borrow your crystal ball please?
I don't own any. Considering that we're dealing with a disorganized disturbance over a week away from affecting the United States (if it does) I don't see why I should tell him/her that they should anticipate hurricane conditions in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No.


Really ? WHEW !!! Because one poster at www.thephins.com (B. Sebo) posted a model pic that showed on Oct 25th a storm with 984 mb would be hugging the southern coast of Miami-Dade County. That was so scary I could hardly sleep last night.
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This is JB's take on it.


THE BASTARDI GLOBAL WARMING MANIFESTO

I am writing this so instead of going into these rants on in my column, I can simply say... see my global warming manifesto and we can all save ourselves time. It is so you understand my motive.

First of all, It is not "profitable" for me to stand against the forces that are trying to push the human-induced global warming agenda. I do not get money for taking this stand and, in fact, it may cost me money as I have heard that I am now on a climate organization's "blacklist". I know of no major university that is being funded to do research to refute the idea of human-induced global warming...quite the contrary. The vilification is rampant for people fighting back because of what they believe is right. The amount of money by forces driving this dwarfs any resisting it. The popular notion is to blame obstructionists in the fossil fuel industry, and the global population simply buys it, but when confronted with the facts, one sees that this is not the case. Bill Gray, one of the most outspoken of all the critics, does not see nearly the funding for his projects that go into studies that support the notion that fossil fuels are destroying the planet. A classic example. I don't want to get into it too deeply since I do support the idea of alternative energy, just not as a force-fed option. However, if one follows the money, one sees the downside of this issue is not the planet burning up, but large sums of money invested in setting the stage for reliance on these things being wasted. So let's get that aspect out of the way. On the idea of other sources of energy... if they work in the marketplace, let's bring them on. Just don't feed me the idea that we have to, because the planet is burning up. If you want to use national security, I can accept that as an argument too. If you want to tell me we may have to get off it because in 20 years it is so cold, well I can accept that. The other arguments, though, are designed to push panic buttons among the gullible which, sad to say, is a large part of the American population. Of course, one encourages using what we have, the other would expose the whole Co2 idea as a hoax, as Gray and others claim.

The fact is that "green" is a misnomer in the way it is used and here is why. If, as proponents of human induced warming say , Co2 is the cause, then the Earth will turn greener. The warmth of the atmosphere and the increase in this life-giving element will cause an explosion of "green". Their fundamental argument is flawed in that the very thing they say will destroy life, will make life easier. It is a moot point, since they are not right about step one in the first place. NO HUMAN BEING KNOWS WHAT THE IDEA TEMP OF THE EARTH SHOULD BE. not even Al Gore or Jim Hansen

The addition of solar and wind energy would be great and, in fact, it would mean even more business for me. Why? Well, with the exception of hurricanes, weather is only a secondary factor in energy. In other words, hurricanes can affect infrastructure but cold weather can't. IT IS THE RESULT OF THE WEATHER that causes a consequence to people in energy ... i.e.; cold winters have more energy usage (assuming a normal economy). But with solar and wind power, not only is the result important, but the actual weather, since it is the weather (cloud cover, wind) that will be directly involved. So there is no possible reason for me to oppose this as far as the increase in business it would bring me (assuming I am not blacklisted). As it is, the folly of solar and wind power was just shown in Britain's cold wave. Low sun angles, and light wind.... one doesn't have enough solar power and the turbines don't turn, so when you need them most, they aren't there.

I actually believe the best way of using the wind is on individual housing -- a generator that can store energy from a device on your house. However, that would take the power out of the hands of the big money pushing this whole solar/wind argument and empower you and me at a base level. This leads to the logical assumption that part of this is about control of the populace, not about the science. If you control the energy, you control the people who need it.

Then why fight?

Because it is a matter of right and wrong. Recently, an individual with a doctorate in meteorology told me he believes the Co2 argument because of the overwhelming consensus. He just assumed that if so many educated people believe it, it must have something to it. I reminded him that consensus can be the first refuge of scoundrels, a safe middle ground that will not yield the best answer. ..it depends on who the consensus is with. A consensus of Elliot Abrams, Joel Myers and Joe Sobel as to how much snow will fall in Philadelphia is one thing, a consensus of people not as "involved" in such an event, doesn't carry the same weight. Back when I first worked here, consensus was arrived at in the same way, meteorologically speaking, that a consensus on the PSU wrestling team was made as to who started. Through, competition. Ever wonder how this company got started? Because great forecasters arrived at an idea, and to each of them it meant everything to be right. They had to be right, because if someone gives you something for free, why pay for it unless the other product you pay for is visibly better?So knock-down, drag-out battles resulted in a "consensus", not the shutting down of debate, or simple acceptance of something you do not believe in (ah, the good old days). So all I am doing here now is what I know leads to success.. constant preparation and the willingness to ight for the right answer. Granted, the person I spoke with was not really involved in the issue, but as educated as he has to be on what he studies, he admitted his opinion was based basically on what he heard, not what he knows. It is assumed in the public, because they are not exposed to the other side of the argument, that this is going on. This is why I reference other sites, for while our global warming site is great, it is balanced within the realm of ACCUWEATHER. In the realm of the public, there is no balance. One can go to the site ICECAP and see the sheer volume of contrary ideas, most of which never make the mainstream. The feel-good idea like the shutting off of lights for one hour worldwide gets media coverage, but it feeds a notion based on questionable ideas, since it may nothing to do with global warming, for it is arguable whether we have anything to do with it. Co2 at 385 parts per million is a life-giving element that MIGHT be one of 33 variables that can affect climate. There is something strange about masses of people willing to bet the future of the planet on a 1 in 33 chance, of a small variable that is essential for life, but somehow is now a pollutant. THIS IS NOT So2, which was a pollutant, and that cars, as well as volcanoes, spewed out.

The reason for the column I write has evolved over the years. I am trying to show what I know more of, what I am studying and use examples of the weather to show how one can forecast events in the longer term. I also, because I like to have fun, play around a bit too. But I am trying to show people the tip of the iceberg of this wonderful field I have been blessed to work in. I believe that years from now people will see I stood on something because of the work I did and the character it built from within, not from me trying to change the world or save the planet. A whole group of people in this movement seek to influence others tomorrow, yet won't deal with the facts today, or the demons they may have to combat on a personal level (we all have them). We see that, for instance, in the complete lack of accountability in forecasts that were made by the IPCC that are plainly nowhere close to verifying as far as the warming, and in the areas where it is most crucial, in the tropical waters and atmosphere above. We see constant references to disasters which may be because of THE OPPOSITE REASONS THAN LISTED as being a by-product of this demon that is a shadow that may or may not exist. So it is has to be stood up too. The challenge I always bring to people is the same challenge I try to live up to myself... Go do the work yourself, make it part of you, so you know the answer, not trust someone else... me included. It is that simple. It is what this nation is about, individuality and freedom, the freedom to learn within a framework, that encourages action, not dictates the results beforehand, or to have people jam things down your throat so you become a drone.

The simple fact is this; we will know within 20 years and probably sooner, if Co2 is that big a deal. If the Earth, already cooler than what the projections of the IPCC model had, ESPECIALLY IN THEOSE CRUCIAL AREAS WHERE INCREASES IN HEAT MEAN MUCH MORE, THE TROPICS) does not warm, or continues to cool, then we know it is as Gray has termed a hoax. If it is not, then we have to try to meet the challenge the way we have always met challenges, through freedom and competition. Either way, the doom and gloom that is trying to PUSH PEOPLE to a forced behavior is not only anti-scientific, it is anti- American and it is anti-human nature. We are not animals that should be herded and kept as pets, unless of course you allow yourself to be.

In 20 years, if I am right, who are you going to remember to go to if you want a good long-range forecaster....someone who does the work and stands when others won't, or someone who just wants to go along with the crowd because of some mythical utopian dream?

You know, my dad came before me and laid the groundwork for me. He grew up in the same type of climate pattern we have now, regaled me with stories of it, and when I went and researched it over the years, I found myself understanding that his observations had merit So he passed it on to me, as generations in this nation have done for years. I don't want to save the planet, I want the right answer. I will use predicted weather events that you see here and line them up with lessons from the past to prove my point. But if you want to say I have a bigger calling in this fight, it is to measure up to the people that came BEFORE me and to hand it off to my son, if he wants it. Lay the groundwork for him, so to speak. If he won't take it, then maybe there are others out there that will. That's fine. My goal is not to have "HE SAVED THE PLANET" engraved on my tombstone.

You know what is fascinating about this? I issue the same challenge on this issue to the wrestlers I train. Do the work to find out yourself. In the case of wrestling, the question is: can I answer the call every time I am confronted with it? There is only one way to have a chance to answer that, and it is not by laying around and watching Iowa work their tails off and win. But I can't do the work for the guy that is walking out there, he has to. Same thing here. Don't trust me, go find out for yourself. I might help point you, or make you think a bit, by showing you how close the hurricane seasons and the following winter was, but you have to go look at it. Make it your weapon. Quite a different philosophy from " The science is settled, there is no need to debate this"

In the end, the fight is about what is right and what is wrong. It is that simple. And as in any fight, one must prepare themselves. Wolves eat, sheep get slaughtered. It is your choice as to who you want to be on this issue, but if it is the former, you have to be willing to hunt.. alone.

ciao for now

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Quoting IKE:
Atlantic tropical season is winding down for the lower 48. Wait til 2011!


Whatever. Time will tell.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No.


Can i borrow your crystal ball please?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably so. Models are showing the subtropical ridge building in north of that area of disturbed weather. This will force the system to have a close encounter with central America (similar to Paula). A weakness in the subtropical ridge will likely be what allows the system to gravitate polewards. Eventually, the system will get caught up in a trough of low pressure and will likely get shot out towards the northeast. As you said, still too early, but something similar to Paula is likely.


Makes sense. Thanks for replying.
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Quoting orthodoxkc:


So will this impact Miami/Ft Lauderdale with more than what Paula did (which was not much) ? Should we expect hurricane conditions in metro Miami/Ft Lauderdale ?
No.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably so. Models are showing the subtropical ridge building in north of that area of disturbed weather. This will force the system to have a close encounter with central America (similar to Paula). A weakness in the subtropical ridge will likely be what allows the system to gravitate polewards. Eventually, the system will get caught up in a trough of low pressure and will likely get shot out towards the northeast. As you said, still too early, but something similar to Paula is likely.


So will this impact Miami/Ft Lauderdale with more than what Paula did (which was not much) ? Should we expect hurricane conditions in metro Miami/Ft Lauderdale ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lets clear something up. I edit Wikipedia. I know who edits what, and who changes what, and everything.

The Igor incident was some stupid person coming in here posting false information, its through now.

I can promise you though, that Wikipedia, although not thought to be, is a good source for information.

Igor is still 155 mph

Wikipedida is what "World Book" was when I was in high school. A good place to start to settle an argument. Not so great if you want that A. But I'm sure it's just a "follow the money" plot in the end.
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Quoting ParanoidAndroid:


Will we be seeing a similar steering pattern as with Paula or is it too early to tell?
Probably so. Models are showing the subtropical ridge building in north of that area of disturbed weather. This will force the system to have a close encounter with central America (similar to Paula). A weakness in the subtropical ridge will likely be what allows the system to gravitate polewards. Eventually, the system will get caught up in a trough of low pressure and will likely get shot out towards the northeast. As you said, still too early, but something similar to Paula is likely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting toddbizz:
Hurricane for Florida next week....what are the odds...anyone in the danger zone???

the Cone of Death is here is Broward Cty what about you?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Megi's eye continues to grow better defined and is warming. Cloud tops around the eye are impressive.


An almost complete ring of yellow tops around the eye.
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The BS Co-efficient is extremely high on the blog this morning. Megi looks very impressive. I wonder if CONUS will have a late season surprise?
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Fortunately the Phillipines are used to typhoons, at least on the northern isalnd, I remeber typhoon CImaron hit about where Megi is forecasted to as a category 5, despite it's intensity and previous typhoons that had hit the area CImaron had relativly low impact, I expect the phillipines to brush this one off
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Development in the southern Caribbean will be gradual. All that currently exists is a weak trough of low pressure associated with some disorganized convective activity. Upper level winds are currently marginal, but should slowly become more conducive. The system will likely drift towards the north over the next few days before a more prominent steering flow takes shape.


Will we be seeing a similar steering pattern as with Paula or is it too early to tell?
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The radar loop out of Panama City shows some (pre-Richard?) showers on the Atlantic side with a slight bit of cyclonic turning evident:

Click for a larger loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lets clear something up. I edit Wikipedia. I know who edits what, and who changes what, and everything.

The Igor incident was some stupid person coming in here posting false information, its through now.

I can promise you though, that Wikipedia, although not thought to be, is a good source for information.

Igor is still 155 mph

OK.
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Megi's eye continues to grow better defined and is warming. Cloud tops around the eye are impressive.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Lets clear something up. I edit Wikipedia. I know who edits what, and who changes what, and everything.

The Igor incident was some stupid person coming in here posting false information, its through now.

I can promise you though, that Wikipedia, although not thought to be, is a good source for information.

Igor is still 155 mph
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Quoting Neapolitan:


***sigh***


***sigh***
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Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Good morning all... MH09, Neapolitan, what's your take on the disturbance in the Caribbean?
Development in the southern Caribbean will be gradual. All that currently exists is a weak trough of low pressure associated with some disorganized convective activity. Upper level winds are currently marginal, but should slowly become more conducive. The system will likely drift towards the north over the next few days before a more prominent steering flow takes shape.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Megi is currently forecasted to make landfall over northeastern Luzon with 1-minute sustained winds of 155mph and gusts of 190mph. It is possible that the system intensifies into a category 5 super typhoon if the upper-level trough over the Philippine sea weakens and dissipates.

Another distinct possibility is that the mid-level subtropical ridge north of Megi does not intensify sufficiently to force the system towards the west-southwest, in which case it'll miss Luzon to the north. If this were to materialize, China is in for it.


Oh my.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Pretty nor'easter this morning. Glad to be living in Florida...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Wow.
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Megi is currently forecasted to make landfall over northeastern Luzon with 1-minute sustained winds of 155mph and gusts of 190mph. It is possible that the system intensifies into a category 5 super typhoon if the upper-level trough over the Philippine sea weakens and dissipates.

Another distinct possibility is that the mid-level subtropical ridge north of Megi does not intensify sufficiently to force the system towards the west-southwest, in which case it'll miss Luzon to the north. If this were to materialize, China is in for it.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Pretty nor'easter this morning. Glad to be living in Florida...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
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Good morning all. Still getting the caffeine circulated.

S Carib is getting going faster than I anticipated.
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Quoting Seastep:
79. Neapolitan

Might want to check your numbers.

How much do scientists get for a pro-AGW stance?

How much do scientists get that have not come to that conclusion yet?

And, no, it is not even close to being a fact. Might it be? Possible, but I doubt it. There are ice ages and then the earth warms until the next ice age. Then it happens all over again. Don't know because there is not enough data to say CO2 trumps nature and doubt there ever will be. We'll see.

Just one example would be the Himalayan glaciers. Way overestimated (proved and admitted false) and said scientist, because of that "science," got $500K for his efforts.

“We thought that if we can highlight it, it will impact policy makers and politicians and encourage them to take some concrete action.” In other words, Rose says, Lal “last night admitted [the scary figure] was included purely to put political pressure on world leaders.”

Link

And yet, questioning is not allowed? You may buy everything hook, line, and sinker, but I don't.

Oh, and that $500K is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of funding.

Sorry, AGW proponents win out big-time on the money front. It's not even close.


***sigh***
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Good morning all... MH09, Neapolitan, what's your take on the disturbance in the Caribbean?
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Hurricane for Florida next week....what are the odds...anyone in the danger zone???
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.