September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 204 - 154

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Megi will likely be making landfall over northeastern Luzon.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


Huh? Otto dissapated about a week ago. This is just an unnamed Azores low, which we get a bunch of in Spring and Fall.
No, that is the remnant of Otto. The lower level circulation never dissipated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Remnant low of OTTO north of the Canary islands.





Huh? Otto dissapated about a week ago. This is just an unnamed Azores low, which we get a bunch of in Spring and Fall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Happy Birthday Levi. Enjoy!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Happy Birthday Levi! How old are ya today?


I am now 19 :|

Thank you!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Remnant low of OTTO north of the Canary islands.
Been watching him as well as Paula. These storms despite considerably unfavorable conditions just seem not to want to let go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Birthday Levi. Enjoy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Birthday Levi! How old are ya today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Gotcha. That's what I figured, since I don't he would of looked this impressive this morning if that would have been otherwise. Furthermore, I know the discussion touched on what you said as well regarding the upper-level trough to the west.

His track now will be interesting too being that I'm still not ruling out the possibility that the deep layer steering ridge doesn't get as strong & he could possibly go just slightly north of Luzon. He's riding along the southern periphery of it now.

I guess that would be good news for them but bad for folks of China as you hinted at yesterday.
Yeah, the subtropical ridge has to strengthen and force the cyclone to turn towards the west-southwest. If it doesn't, Megi should pass north of Luzon. All models are showing the southward component in motion, so, there is a high probability that it does hit Luzon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What cracks me up is when the Oil is Good people say the scientists support Global Warming Theory because they want research money.

Somebody please post statistics on money spent on global warming research and money spent on anti-global warming campaigns. Oh yeah, corporate donors don't have to disclose their campaign contributions, forgot. I think the Supreme Court took care of that for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Morning Levi...I'm hearing through the circuit that's it's your B-day. I hope you have a good one. And thanks for the update as well.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Have a Great Birthday Levi!


Thank you both =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have a Great Birthday Levi!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What the heck did he do?



It doesn't take much to get Taz to Spaz.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


Divided is a relative term. I can say, "The world's wealth is divided between me and everyone else," and that's a true statement...but it implies that there's some sort of actual measurable balance, and in that it's unfair. JB can rant that consensus is the last refuge of a scoundrel, and there may be some validity to that in certain circles: just because 95% of bookies call for the Jets to win tomorrow does not mean they're going to win. But if I go to see 100 different orthopedic surgeons, and 97 tell me I have a compound fracture of my femur while the remaining three tell me there's nothing wrong with my leg, I'll be disinclined to believe those three--even though, yes, those orthopedic surgeons were "divided" as to the status of my leg.


Patient argument, thanks N.


If La Nina brings drier winter than usual and Florida is already dry, then look for fires this winter and spring. Don't know what our deficit is now, but according to Doc M., we just had a Top Ten Driest September in Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sneak Attack! Since no system can find way directly into the GOM, the 12z GFS has it jump into the e-pac and then cross back over. Truly entertaining run - LOL!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You think that still has to do with that TUTT low & corresponding trough riding south or it's that just about all in the past?
There's an upper-level trough over the Philippines causing for some dry air entrainment. Looking at water vapor, the mid-latitude trough that was digging southward and eroding at the subtropical ridge has since lifted out. This has allowed for the subtropical ridge to re-orientate itself and develop further westward. As for the upper-level cold low, that has since filled in and dissipated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I believe we'll have Invest 99L tomorrow or Monday, with Richard following thereafter.

Going to go make a trip by Levi's blog...Its his birthday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Megi is having a tough time firing organized convective activity over the western semicircle due to some dry air entrainment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Slowly boiling convection in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
wow what a season everytime the models show a US threat the US activates its deflector shield program and either a trof pushes it away or a ridge builds and send it West into mexico or Cent am. no different now with the SW Carib system
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Black all around. Megi's eye also continues to warm.

Looks like a category 4.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To loosely paraphase Carl Sagan;"Being brilliant is no garantee against being wrong" There are scientists studying climate change that are wrong....on both sides. The issue as I see, that I don't see brought up much in here is: Why would we be comforted knowing that we don't know the effect human-caused releases of CO2 will have? Not knowing should be enough to at least trigger some caution. While some may debate the unknows of what may or may not happen. We know with certainty some things: 1. Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas. 2. Humans, since the industrial revolution, have caused an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. These are facts and not part of a "hoax". What the consequences will be is the issue and not knowing for sure is what people should be reacting to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


Divided is a relative term. I can say, "The world's wealth is divided between me and everyone else," and that's a true statement...but it implies that there's some sort of actual measurable balance, and in that it's unfair. JB can rant that consensus is the last refuge of a scoundrel, and there may be some validity to that in certain circles: just because 95% of bookies call for the Jets to win tomorrow does not mean they're going to win.

There has been scientific consensus on many things over the centuries. Earth was at the center of the Universe, phrenology, eugenics, Piltdown Man...there's quite a list of things where once there was surety and now they're discredited.

But if I go to see 100 different orthopedic surgeons, and 97 tell me I have a compound fracture of my femur while the remaining three tell me there's nothing wrong with my leg, I'll be disinclined to believe those three--even though, yes, those orthopedic surgeons were "divided" as to the status of my leg.

I'd hope you'd not need a physician to tell you you have a compound fracture, they're rather obvious. ;-)

That is a directly relevant issue, in that "anthropogenic global warming" is not obvious. It is absolutely impossible to know how much of observed warming is due to natural factors, and how much to human greenhouse gas production, given current technology. Those times they've tried to find the "signature" of AGW in specific regions of the atmosphere and ocean, they've come up empty. (Based on what was expected from the computer models.)

At any rate, there are many scientists who don't buy in to CO2 having any kind of detrimental effect on the climate. As in Galileo's time, there are factors that prevent many from speaking out. Back then, it was mainly fear of persecution from the Catholic Church. Now, it is fear of funding cutoffs and other attacks on one's professional status. That is why the skeptics who do speak out tend to be at the end of their professional careers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
167. 7544
when should we see 99l in the caribiean ? tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Impressive Nor'easter skirting along the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia. (Wow, a 16 minute lull on the blog).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remnant low of OTTO north of the Canary islands.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


nice post


Fascinating, here's link you normally don't see
on this blog/site.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8039977/Britain-in-for-another-big-freeze-winter.html


Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions said the country should prepare itself for "back-to-back" harsh winters.
Last winter was the coldest for 31 years, with the average UK-wide temperature from 1 December to 24 February being only 34.7F (1.5C), compared to the long-term average of 38.6F (3.7C).
The mercury plunged as low as -8.1F (-22.3C) in Altnaharra, Scotland, while Benson, Oxon, recorded 10.8F (-11.8C).
The Met Office had predicted there was only a one-in-seven chance of a cold winter, which was caused by strong anti-cyclonic activity bringing persistent icy winds off the continent, and keeping milder Atlantic breezes at bay.
That statement came after an overly-optimistic forecast for summer 2009, which rather rashly predicted that Britain was "odds-on for a barbecue summer".
While it was slightly warmer than average it turned out to be another damp affair and the Met Office was roundly criticised.
The combination of the two predictions led it to drop public announcements of its seasonal forecasting service, which it has relegated to its research department.
However, Positive Weather Solutions, which claims to have correctly forecast the 2009 washout summer and last winter's plunging temperatures, has continued to offer long-range forecasts.
Mr Powell said: "It is very unusual to have two very harsh winters back-to-back, so most people would have expected a tamer and milder winter this year.

Snow to hit Britain
Winter will come early to Britain next week as snow is forecast for the north while the south will shiver in frosty sub-zero nights.

Published: 3:21PM BST 13 Oct 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8061737/Snow-to-hit-Britain.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



you been re ported for name calling and being rude


What the heck did he do?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
161. 7544
what models showing a fla looks like the latest runs have back down today >?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's a perfect example of how when a cyclone develops an eye, the Raw T-number just tanks. Additionally, the eye was pinhole in size which also helped in the rapid increase of T-number. The recent decrease is not because the system is weakening, it's because the eye no longer qualifies for being pinhole.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Raw T# from ADT is all the way up at 6.4. The Adjusted T-number is also at 6.4. The CI# is lagging at 5.5 but should slowly catch up. A compromise of the 6.4 and 5.5 T-number would equal to 6.0 (roughly) which would equal to about 135mph.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 942.7mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.4 6.4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Objectivist:

Terrible.

Something much closer to the actual truth would be:

Scientists are divided on the extent to which human-produced CO2 is affecting the Earth's temperature. The data is far from overwhelming, and numerous items such as the lack of sea level rise point to almost negligible warming. Further, purely natural factors have contributed to warming in the past (for the entire interglacial period), and other factors may completely eliminate warming over the next few decades (the current solar lull).

It is particularly important to differentiate between "natural climate change" (which has happened throughout the history of the Earth), and "anthropogenic climate change", the extent of which is highly debatable. This is a distinction many warming proponents frequently fail to make.

Climate scientists have been engaging in highly questionable practices to further their views, so their breathless pronouncements of imminent doom should be viewed skeptically for the most part.

Another oft-overlooked fact in this debate is that no matter what the Western countries do regarding CO2, less wealthy countries including China, India and Russia have refused to reduce CO2 emissions. This means two things - that if Western countries adopt expensive CO2 controls, their economies will suffer greatly, and also that those controls will make no measurable difference by 2100. This is directly admitted by the IPCC.

Due to the many uncertainties surrounding this area, and the absolute lack of a compelling reason to spend trillions of dollars in the short term, the issue should be studied with a good deal of effort for the next ten to twenty years, until we actually have a true understanding of the risks, or lack thereof.

There, much better.

In support of my contention that scientists are divided, one data point is:

The resignation of Harold Lewis, an Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara from the American Physical Society, over what he views as the global warming hoax.

There are plenty of scientists who have valid disagreements with the AGW hypothesis as currently stated.



Great post. The resigntion of Harold Lewis is huge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
But what a fool believes he sees,
no wise man has the power to reason away.
What seems to be is always better than nothing.

Dooby Brothers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out. I have most major models running on my WU Blog if anyone would like to view. See you all, gonna be a great day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Objectivist:

Terrible.

Something much closer to the actual truth would be:

Scientists are divided on the extent to which human-produced CO2 is affecting the Earth's temperature.


Divided is a relative term. I can say, "The world's wealth is divided between me and everyone else," and that's a true statement...but it implies that there's some sort of actual measurable balance, and in that it's unfair. JB can rant that consensus is the last refuge of a scoundrel, and there may be some validity to that in certain circles: just because 95% of bookies call for the Jets to win tomorrow does not mean they're going to win. But if I go to see 100 different orthopedic surgeons, and 97 tell me I have a compound fracture of my femur while the remaining three tell me there's nothing wrong with my leg, I'll be disinclined to believe those three--even though, yes, those orthopedic surgeons were "divided" as to the status of my leg.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526

Viewing: 204 - 154

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
59 °F
Mostly Cloudy