Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 482 - 432

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

482. RedStickCasterette
3:16 AM GMT on October 16, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.


Are you kidding? Hate the idea of living in Metairie, lived there as a kid. Heck, Baton Rouge is a third world country now...
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
480. Neapolitan
12:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
479. Jax82
12:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
478. IKE
12:48 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
477. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:47 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Obviously, some of you people aren't listening (IKE). Its already been pointed out by many that the Upper Level Winds will be changing early next week, and that winds in the GOMEX will not be screaming anymore. This leaves especially Southern Florida vulnerable to tropical system landfalls.

And just our luck (Sarcasm), there is a good chance we will see Richard develop in the Caribbean next week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31524
474. Orcasystems
12:39 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
473. Neapolitan
12:35 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't attempt to forecast tracks of systems for a season.

Nearly impossible to forecast. I'm convinced.
I'll agree with you on that one, Ike. Historically-speaking, one-third of Atlantic TCs hit the US mainland, and I'll never say any more than that; anyone who knows anything about statistics recognizes that a year with ten landfalling storms doesn't guarantee a single one for the following year--and vice versa.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
472. IKE
12:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




I'll keep pointing em out for you.
Also if you had been reading his post recently,(Like u say u do) he has said several times that he blew his landfall forecast for the US this year.


I wouldn't attempt to forecast tracks of systems for a season.

Nearly impossible to forecast. I'm convinced.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
471. PensacolaDoug
12:26 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm speechless! I'll have to mark that one down in my JB calendar. ;-)




I'll keep pointing em out for you.
Also if you had been reading his post recently,(Like u say u do) he has said several times that he blew his landfall forecast for the US this year.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
469. Neapolitan
12:22 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morn.
Side note from me.
Hey Nea! One of your most consistant critizisms of JB is that he doesn't admit his mistakes. That's not remotely true. Read on.

FRIDAY 12:15 AM
Clearly the hurricane center has had a better end game idea with this than I. I will admit that though.

I trust everyone is seeing how the model is picking up on what should be Richard for next week.

ciao for now ****


I'm speechless! I'll have to mark that one down in my JB calendar. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
468. Neapolitan
12:21 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Hard to believe that even with all the cool air from two weeks ago blowing over it, the majority of the GOM is still warm enough for tropical activity, but the data don't lie. The image below shows that water temps capable of generating and sustaining TCs still cover nearly the entire Gulf; the only exceptions are a thin strip right at the northern extreme, and some places in Florida Bay where the heavy rains from Nicole forced some cooling. Pretty much everything green, greenish yellow, yellow, orange, and red is TC-ready. (Of course, there's more that goes into TC formation than just ample warm water; atmospheric conditions above that water have to be right. But so long as the heat's still there, so are the chances):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Things are even warmer, of course, in the Caribbean and Atlantic portion of the MDR, which is normal and expected. I foresee yet another 3-5 TCs for the year. While it's unlikely (though not impossible) that any one of those could sneak through to the northern GOM, pretty much every other part of the MDR is still open for business. Lots of watching to be done these next seven weeks (and possibly beyond).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
467. PensacolaDoug
12:18 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
JB this morn.
Side note from me.
Hey Nea! One of your most consistant critizisms of JB is that he doesn't admit his mistakes. That's not remotely true. Read on.



FRIDAY 12:15 AM
WILL BOSTON GET STRONGER WINDS THAN HAVANA?

HAVANA did have gusts to 55 mph as Paula went by south of the city. It is over land moving slightly south of east, but I am surprised that it is not turning more southeast. The center is staying together enough so the deep layer flow is pulling it out enough so it may get back over the water on the northeast coast of Cuba and stall. Clearly the hurricane center has had a better end game idea with this than I. I will admit that though.

But the rapidly deepening storm off New Jersey will have pressures lowere than the lowest pressure that Paula ever got too, and this is going to lash the coast with howling winds. Boston could get gust over 55 both from the northeast, then the northwest with this

I trust everyone is seeing how the model is picking up on what should be Richard for next week.

ciao for now ****
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
466. Vincent4989
12:10 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
Paula under absoprtion
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
465. Stevebahamas
12:06 PM GMT on October 15, 2010
It's absolutely raining buckets here on Harbour Island...
i can't even watch "The Bold & The Beautiful" on the TWC as we've lost signal...
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
464. IKE
11:52 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Especially with all the shear in the 200-500mb layer like you mentioned. Nothing can withstand that.


Maybe next year.......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
461. IKE
11:37 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
10%-er done bit the dust...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA LOCATED ON THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
460. IKE
11:34 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Speaking of Paula, the airport in Miami had .08 inches of rain Wednesday and Thursday from her. Naples had a trace each day.

Key West airport has had 1.51 since Wednesday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
459. WxLogic
11:31 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4934
458. dmh1026
11:31 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:
A lot were wrong with Paula...
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
457. IKE
11:29 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


Spent Friday through Tuesday in Tampa visiting my son. I'm thinking I may need to go back down there. :)


Chamber of Commerce weather for the next week....



Today: Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 46. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 44. Calm wind.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Calm wind.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Calm wind.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
456. GeoffreyWPB
11:28 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
455. PakaSurvivor
11:22 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I've got 49.3 outside.


Spent Friday through Tuesday in Tampa visiting my son. I'm thinking I may need to go back down there. :)
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
454. IKE
11:17 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Good Morning Ike, I knew it was cold in Crestview this morning. The Old dog refused her 4AM walk again.


I've got 49.3 outside.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
453. PakaSurvivor
11:10 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Good Morning Ike, I knew it was cold in Crestview this morning. The Old dog refused her 4AM walk again.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
452. mcluvincane
10:55 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS is showing a western Caribbean system that takes a track similar to the November climatology tracks of systems from the NHC...too much wind shear(200-500 mb's), for anything to survive in the GOM....




??????? I don't think s. Maybe you should drink some more coffee and look again. U might have a shield but south Florida looks to be in the crosshair with little shear forecasted in its path
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
451. IKE
10:54 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Dry as a bone.....


Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 0 min 12 sec ago
Clear
41 °F

Clear
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.08 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 6.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
450. islander101010
10:52 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
2011 is coming up soon not too late to move inland
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4355
449. IKE
10:48 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Latest GFS is showing a western Caribbean system that takes a track similar to the November climatology tracks of systems from the NHC...too much wind shear(200-500 mb's), for anything to survive in the GOM....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
448. Autistic2
10:47 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Post 423 WOW LOL I should not see such things before coffee
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
447. Keys99
10:45 AM GMT on October 15, 2010

The Big Blob in the SW Caribbean everyone was showing last night is gone for the moment. Looks like it is being pulled into the tail of the troff. Maybe thats where Richard will come from?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
446. IKE
10:15 AM GMT on October 15, 2010



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
445. aislinnpaps
10:10 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Good morning, if anyone is around??
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
444. IKE
9:22 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Shields up...46 days left...and it's officially over...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
443. IKE
8:34 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...
5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 15
Location: 23.1N 80.2W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: E at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
442. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:50 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2010
8:30 AM IST October 15 2010
===================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central and adjoining northwest & east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB03-2010 lays centered over northwest Bay of Bengal near 19.0N 87.0E, or about 220 kms east southeast of Gopalpur, 150 kms southeast of Puri, and 300 kms south southwest of Digha.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip near Puri between 1200 PM UTC and 1800 PM UTC

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center. Puri reported northerly 20 knots surface wind with MSLP of 998.1 hPa and Gopalpur reported north northwesterly 15 knots with MSLP of 997.5 hPa.

Satellite imagery indicates increasing in deep convection and further organization. The Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal to the north of 15.0N and west of 87.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.

Low to moderate vertical wind shear of horizontal wind prevails over the region. There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear to the northwest of the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 22.0N
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44821
441. traumaboyy
7:46 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


Morning!

Right now, it's too early to detail the specifics for pre-Richard, but south Florida is the most likely target for now. Central Florida is also possible, though less likely.


Thanks!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
440. KoritheMan
7:34 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting traumaboyy:


Good Morning Kori!!

What part of Florida you got in mind??


Morning!

Right now, it's too early to detail the specifics for pre-Richard, but south Florida is the most likely target for now. Central Florida is also possible, though less likely.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 557 Comments: 19977
439. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:03 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 15 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (970 hPa) located at 14.9N 136.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.4N 132.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.5N 128.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.6N 123.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44821
438. sunlinepr
6:26 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
GN
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9715
437. SherwoodSpirit
6:19 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


<3 xkcd :)
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
436. GaryGaga
6:12 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
. . . want to become Richard will not develop - too much interaction with land and very little or no spin . . . " Anyway, this is the hat that I got on today . . hey, what can I say ? I'm a Gaga . . . "
Member Since: October 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
435. traumaboyy
5:35 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


Correct.


Good Morning Kori!!

What part of Florida you got in mind??
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
434. JLPR2
5:34 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Yeah...
This one isn't getting any love, maybe it's because it is only developed by the CMC?

It's looking nicer now:


well I'm off to bed, night all!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8506
433. sunlinepr
5:26 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Preparing for nor'easter

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9715
432. sunlinepr
5:21 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Take a look at WU GFS model Next week.... crossing Cuba, east of FL
Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9715

Viewing: 482 - 432

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
72 °F
Overcast