Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Good Afternoon. Paula weakened as everyone expected.
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With a soon to be totally exposed center we will be able to track it. But I don't think will matter because no place to run without going through more shear.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi Kman, Is it my eyes or the actual LLC of Paula, is on or just off southern coastline of Cuba already, just checked weather bug on my BB and the winds here are due west!



That is what I have been suggesting for the past couple of hours. These sheared, decoupled systems can do odd things, including producing more than one center. I recall a system just east of the eastern Caribbean that sent a false center into the NE Caribbean while the true center was still East of the islands.

I became sceptical of the North coast center position when I saw the Ascat pass from this morning.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS has Richard forming or formed by Monday. A reliable time frame. Beyond that, its guessing speculation.


I apparently, have no sense of humor. :P
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The Front is starting to kick in now The Moisture is starting to be pushed back into the straights. If this keeps up,prob no rain for Miami but the Bahamas should get some.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
Quoting kmanislander:


Perhaps


Hi Kman, Is it my eyes or the actual LLC of Paula, is on or just off southern coastline of Cuba already, just checked weather bug on my BB and the winds here are due west!

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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You & a whole bunch of others. lol


Perhaps

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".

Best and funniest comment days! LMAO!!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".


Still had tears in my eyes...here's the comment that sent me on the floor!! Still hurtin! Whew!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

LMAO


Best comment all month!!!!
ROFLMAO X 2!!!!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".


GFS has Richard forming or formed by Monday. A reliable time frame. Beyond that, its guessing speculation.
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If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".
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Blog update, I hope you all find it informative
Paula hits Cuba.. Richard on the Horizon? 10/14/10
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interesting shift.. or not.. depending who you are lol seems like some models kinda keep it in the straights for a few days
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13. LRandyB 4:59 PM EDT on October 14, 2010

I'm scheduled on the flight to investigate TS Paula off the north coast of Cuba tonight. I suspect, as fast as she is being sheared, that we'll cancel but I've seen us fly much less impressive systems!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/LRandyB/comment.html?entrynum=170
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
I find this season a blessing in disguise! Igor was awesome to track, Earl was only 30 miles away from being a classic East Coast Hurricane like "Gloria, Bob, 1938 Hurricane, Belle, ect"

Alex was interesting as well, pressure of a major Hurricane. Paula was no doubt an interesting storm in my books. Plenty of fascinating stuff this year.
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I have never seen such a drastic shift in a cone from one advisory to the next, guess I'll have to eat crow with my predictions about it emerging off the south coast of Cuba LOL!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The NHC has the right spot on the 5pm EDT advisory. Here is where I have it as of 19:45 UTC.



LOL. Perfect!
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TS.Paula's heading held steady at dueEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~15mph(~24.1km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h)
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14

Copy &paste 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, cun, mia, nbw, 22.8n82.8w-22.8n79.86w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~12hours from now to entry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos,Cuba
though I wouldn't be surprised if it took a dip into the nearby Caribbean

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Just fascinating how hurricane size matters. Right now in Miami wind speed is near zero. It's still. Just a couple of hundred miles from Paula. But with Igor and most of the other Atlantic storms this year, Miami felt the outflow with steady 15mph winds several hundred miles away for several days.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Lame in which way? Have you not been entertained enough? Tell us, what would it take to "unlame" it for you?
I have an answer but it would get me 48 hours in WU jail and I dont want that again
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
The NHC has the right spot on the 5pm EDT advisory. Here is where I have it as of 19:45 UTC.

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GFS has a system developing in a reasonable time frame and has started to show consistency. Slowly, the ECMWF is starting to come on board.

Looks like we'll have to watch this disturbance.

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 14
Location: 22.8°N 82.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb


Hard to disagree with it.
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hey guys just came back from a long day of work at the Met office and I think paula's COC is now remerging off of cuba

anyway I am on my PS3 so I am going to go play some modern warfare II now BBL
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Back later
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Lame in which way? Have you not been entertained enough? Tell us, what would it take to "unlame" it for you?
He probably wants to see "death and destruction". Though I think we had enough of that this season, in fact too much. Maybe he wanted a big one slamming into USA for whatever reason. Maybe he owns a Home Depot.
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Run the vis loop from here
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Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Center is off the North Coast.
Link


That is the mid level center on the radar. It cannot see the surface low from which it is decoupled.
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Reposted from the previous blog with a correction made to the coordinates to be copy&pasted into the GreatCircleMapper

TropicalStormPaula made landfall near PuertoEsperanza,Cuba

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A

Copy &paste 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, cun, mia, nbw, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n79.86w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to reentry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos,Cuba
Though given it's rate of recurvature, TS.Paula is more likely to reenter the Caribbean
north of Isla de Juventad tonight after 09pmGMT but before 12amGMT

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Could be KMAN. Virtually impossible to say.

RGB Floater
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.