Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:
Luzon again? I'm too tired to look.
Somebody please post Phillipines imagery.
Is it going north or south of the main island?


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Quoting centex:
No SRV, and that is american. Maybe those who question these things are the un-americans. They show use like we don't want to be.


Well, They didn't pull it out there hat! I do have to say that Stevie is all American!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting JLPR2:


20 something inches fell in south PR due to Otto, but yeah, many areas in the north have gotten lots of rain too, from Pre-Bonnie, Earl, Fiona and Gaston.

Ugh why is this year so disastrous?
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Quoting Chicklit:
Luzon again? I'm too tired to look.
Somebody please post Phillipines imagery.
Is it going north or south of the main island?
It's still quite a bit away, East-Southeast of the area. Only a cat. 1 or 2 havent checked lately right now but likely be a monster.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
beautiful but deadly
Indeed. Megi will be causing a lot of problems to the Philippines in a few days.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yeah 2 out 16

Earl knocked out power, water & trees, while Otto caused $6.5 million here due to destroyed roads and flooding.
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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
What season in the past have had this many TCs with no hurricane strike on the lower 48?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
223. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

All I know is that there was a lot of areas around here with at least 3 inches this season. One of our rainiest years EVER.


20 something inches fell in south PR due to Otto, but yeah, many areas in the north have gotten lots of rain too, from Pre-Bonnie, Earl, Fiona and Gaston.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
To switch The Subject off of Paula and Future 99L.
Looks like Megi maybe the first Supertyphoon of the western pacific typhoon season.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Aussie usually posts Phillipines weather because his wife is from there.
Another one missing is DestinJeff.
Hmmmm....?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Quoting Levi32:


Possibly. We just had a negative SOI burst in the Pacific which has implications down the road in North America during the 5-15 day period, in other words a disruption of the consistent trough pattern that has dominated the east recently. Typhoon Megi also supports this, as it is likely to track west across the Philippines and continue westward, indicating more ridging in the far east, which tends to teleconnect to ridging over the eastern United States.

A more zonal flow and more ridging over the east could direct Caribbean storms farther north before getting recurved to the northeast. That's why you see some runs of the GFS punching Richard into central America. However, it's dang hard to get a storm in the Caribbean to just move west into central America and die in October. Most of them eventually get brought back out into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we should be on the lookout. I still feel October will be a solidly active month from beginning to end, as I said back in September. Can't let our guard down yet.
I can agree Norcross just made that point that the reliable model has a system developing in the carib. next week the steering pattern shifts a bit north leaving the door open for a better chance of a land falling system in the us.It is not over yet.
Thanks for everything you do here Levi
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http://www.weather.bm/maps/chart3.jpg
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Quoting Chicklit:
Right we can add Puerto Rico to the list.
Didn't you get over 10 inches?
Were there any areas of 15?

All I know is that there was a lot of areas around here with at least 3 inches this season. One of our rainiest years EVER.
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217. ackee
question for the blog steering pattern in SW carrbean will it reamain the same next week system that do devlop track west into central America or will it shift more NE or NORTH
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earl & Otto still hit me though.
yeah 2 out 16
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Luzon again? I'm too tired to look.
Somebody please post Phillipines imagery.
Is it going north or south of the main island?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yeah when it gets to the philipines as a cat. 4

Or 5. Hopefully not!
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Quoting doorman79:


See,

Here is a man from the state that wants to secede from the union, and Fed dollars were not used. Bye the way isn't that chaucier in your avatar? Now thats America lol
No SRV, and that is american. Maybe those who question these things are the un-americans. They show use like we don't want to be.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3260
Right we can add Puerto Rico to the list.
Didn't you get over 10 inches?
Were there any areas of 15?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
beautiful but deadly
yeah when it gets to the philipines as a cat. 4
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, just mostly outside of the US

Earl & Otto still hit me though.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Mexico
Honduras
Nicaragua
Yep, basically
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sun beginning to rise over the western Pacific. Visible satellite imagery now starting to show Megi.

beautiful but deadly
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54302
Mexico
Honduras
Nicaragua
Brownsville
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This season has had some very damaging storms:
Alex: $1.885 Billion
Bonnie: ---
Colin: ---
Danielle: ---
Earl: ~$40 million
Fiona: ---
Gaston:---
Hermine: $150 million
Igor: at least $100 million

Julia: ---
Karl: $5.6 billion
Lisa: ---
Matthew: ???
Nicole: $152 million
Otto: $56.5 million
Paula: ???
Yeah, just mostly outside of the US
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Do your research. That term is in common use by experts and includes ALL of Central America and surrounding islands. It does not in any way mean that they don't matter, only that they are not yet on the road to industrialization.


I know what a third world country is thank you. You made it sound like that because they're a third world country their suffering is less than what would have happened if a hurricane hit the United States. Am I saying that was your intention, no. I am addressing the fact people still believe that because a season didn't have a US hit it was no less of a deadly and destructive season.

Remember the 2007 season? Or the 1998 season? The US wasn't nearly as badly hit as the third world countries were.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
Quoting Neapolitan:


Umm...what?


I didn't have to see that.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Do your research. That term is in common use by experts and includes ALL of Central America and surrounding islands. It does not in any way mean that they don't matter, only that they are not yet on the road to industrialization.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Do your research. That term is in common use by experts and includes ALL of Central America and surrounding islands. It does not in any way mean that they don't matter, only that they are not yet on the road to industrialization.


Hell,

Half of New Orleans is a third world country!
Bet you don't like that one, and I am from here!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting Levi32:


In other words 1 or 2 more storms and 1 more hurricane for the rest of the month. Sounds about right, but don't be surprised if both are hurricanes.
True, we have already seen Hurricane Otto, and Paula, and Richard will be in the same boiling waters as Paula so it is likely that it could be at least a cat.1, Thanks
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes, we have been fortunate this year. All of the activity has been aimed at third world countries. We have dodged the bullet.


Umm...what?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And the 6 billion Karl caused?

This season has had some very damaging storms:
Alex: $1.885 Billion
Bonnie: ---
Colin: ---
Danielle: ---
Earl: ~$40 million
Fiona: ---
Gaston:---
Hermine: $150 million
Igor: at least $100 million

Julia: ---
Karl: $5.6 billion
Lisa: ---
Matthew: ???
Nicole: $152 million
Otto: $56.5 million
Paula: ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
We were not even able to get fed dollars for Hermine. Feds said we could foot the bill without Fed aid. While that can be debated it just goes to show not a big tropical year.


See,

Here is a man from the state that wants to secede from the union, and Fed dollars were not used. Bye the way isn't that chaucier in your avatar? Now thats America lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hi Levi, I was wondering does 3 to 4 storms, 2 to 3 Hurricanes, and 0 to 1 Major hurricane(s) Sound reasonable for My October Outlook? I think it sounds about right now that we could possibly see Richard. (My season Prediction is 19 Named Storms, 10 Hurricanes, And 6 Major Hurricanes.


In other words 1 or 2 more storms and 1 more hurricane for the rest of the month. Sounds about right, but don't be surprised if both are hurricanes.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Water in frying pan analogy comes to mind with Paula. Hot dry air stifles her.
She will gracefully expire in the Bahamas and bring some nice rains there.
That's my prediction based on the moon and the misbegotten.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Here I am.. I was wondering why it hasn't started raining yet. The rain dissapates as it hits the mountains! Why?

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Quoting Levi32:


Possibly. We just had a negative SOI burst in the Pacific which has implications down the road in North America during the 5-15 day period, in other words a disruption of the consistent trough pattern that has dominated the east recently. Typhoon Megi also supports this, as it is likely to track west across the Philippines and continue westward, indicating more ridging in the far east, which tends to teleconnect to ridging over the eastern United States.

A more zonal flow and more ridging over the east could direct Caribbean storms farther north before getting recurved to the northeast. That's why you see some runs of the GFS punching Richard into central America. However, it's dang hard to get a storm in the Caribbean to just move west into central America and die in October. Most of them eventually get brought back out into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we should be on the lookout. I still feel October will be a solidly active month from beginning to end, as I said back in September. Can't let our guard down yet.
Hi Levi, I was wondering does 3 to 4 storms, 2 to 3 Hurricanes, and 0 to 1 Major hurricane(s) Sound reasonable for My October Outlook? I think it sounds about right now that we could possibly see Richard. (My season Prediction is 19 Named Storms, 10 Hurricanes, And 6 Major Hurricanes.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 18, 2010101500, , BEST, 0, 230N, 820W, 45, 1002, TS

Weird how it's pressure hasn't risen.
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Amazing the models STILL have no idea what to do with Paula. Seems like most keep it north of Cuba though now!

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Quoting centex:
We were not even able to get fed dollars for Hermine. Feds said we could foot the bill without Fed aid. While that can be debated it just goes to show not a big tropical year.


And the 6 billion Karl caused?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
from global warming to global frying in six quick months.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Will 99 be a threat to the west coast of FL?
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TS.Paula's heading had turned northward to (7.2degrees east of) EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of dueEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~15mph(~24.1km/h)
Category1
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
15Oct 12pmGMT - - 23.0n82.0w - - 55mph(~88.5km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14A

Copy &paste 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, 22.8n82.8w-23.0n82.0w, cun, mia, nbw, 23.0n82.0w-23.111n81.56w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~1hour from now to entry into the Atlantic near Matanzas,Cuba

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
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Quoting doorman79:


Please! Don't jinx us!!!! Third world countries?

Guess they dont count, huh?


Good 'ol Kanada now out of the Security Council...
And into the Hurricane Third World.
lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I just love how you manage to say that like it was nothing. Not.
We were not even able to get fed dollars for Hermine. Feds said we could foot the bill without Fed aid. While that can be debated it just goes to show not a big tropical year.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3260
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 18, 2010101500, , BEST, 0, 230N, 820W, 45, 1002, TS
The will likely downgrade it to 50 at the 11
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
99L will likely be initiated Early or late tomorrow
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.