Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:

no that happened later i think


skin wasn't thick enough to take criticism imo. o well. history.

So Paula's getting squeezed and looking worse than ever, I agree. But the circulation center looks to be mostly over the straights now
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
281. MahFL
Yellow circle Carib.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September strorms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


what a wishcaster... :p
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Quoting Chicklit:

anyway, do that in email please.


+1,000
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September storms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
Quoting Chicklit:

no that happened later i think
I'm a bottom line kind of guy and that is the way I saw it. Don't think too far from truth.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Funny the wind speed is slower at the lower pressure.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
China Meteorological Administration

Typhoon Megi

** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC
00HR 14.3N 137.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 18KM/H
P+24HR 16.7N 133.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 18.1N 128.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 17.9N 124.0E 920HPA 60M/S (120 knots)
P+96HR 17.3N 119.8E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.1N 116.9E 945HPA 48M/S=

----
CMA uses 2 minute sustained winds average for their advisories
I like to use the JTWC because they use one-minute sustained winds. The two-minute sustained winds from CMA and ten-minute sustained winds from JMA messes me up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

anyway, do that in email please.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
were is stormw??????????????
Gone, kicked out because he was advertising his personal website and trying to get bloggers to move to his site.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
The center is looking much less well-defined, Levi.
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270. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, I make sure that I'm not US-centric. ;)

Also, I forgot about Karl, which struck Veracruz as a major hurricane. That should count, I think.


Yeah, but the idea was more of storms of past years.
So far this year Karl has been the costliest.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
268. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
China Meteorological Administration

Typhoon Megi

** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC
00HR 14.3N 137.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 18KM/H
P+24HR 16.7N 133.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 18.1N 128.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 17.9N 124.0E 920HPA 60M/S (120 knots)
P+96HR 17.3N 119.8E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.1N 116.9E 945HPA 48M/S=

----
CMA uses 2 minute sustained winds average for their advisories
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
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Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Is Paula emerging into the Florida straights right now?


squeezing is more like it. she's about to get smushed between the mountains and the hot dry air.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Classic CybrTed
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pleasantly so. But it doesn't happen often, historically, so enjoy it while you can.
Is the stearing pattern going to be the same for possible Richard as it is for Paula?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Well organized typhoon, excellent spiral banding. I can tell you this will become a powerful typhoon.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.0N 133.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.3N 128.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.5N 124.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)


That's a bad a storm.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
RAMMB Floater 1 now on Caribbean AOI.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Is Paula emerging into the Florida straights right now?


It very well may be, as the surface center appears to be getting pulled back under the mid-level center and trying to become vertically stacked once again, but you can't guarantee that based on radar. However, it looks promising.
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Quoting JLPR2:


But check your list, now that one isnt US centric. :]
We could add Gilbert to the list.


Yeah, I make sure that I'm not US-centric. ;)

Also, I forgot about Karl, which struck Veracruz as a major hurricane. That should count, I think.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting scott39:
That is suprising.


Pleasantly so. But it doesn't happen often, historically, so enjoy it while you can.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting centex:
Your a jerk, sould not be news. Find somewhere else to post crap.


The problem with us Americans! Its cool to say no one else matters, but God forbid we talk about ourselves!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
256. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't think he's referring to the intensity of the storms as much as he is the damage. While I'm not defending him by any means, he's certainly correct in asserting that we've, fortunately, not had any Ike's, Mitch's, Andrew's, Gustav's, Isidore's, Georges', etc.


But check your list, now that one isnt US centric. :]
We could add Gilbert to the list.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. Megi will be causing a lot of problems to the Philippines in a few days.

this will poss be the biggie so far in the west p basin

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56018
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can think of four years. It's more than you think. They are:

1951
1990
2000
2001
That is suprising.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting centex:
Your a jerk, sould not be news. Find somewhere else to post crap.


its the truth
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251. ParanoidAndroid
12:51 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Is Paula emerging into the Florida straights right now?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
250. KoritheMan
12:51 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:


Too US centric!
Name some like Mitch, Felix or Dean, you know that hit other places.

And actually earl was a cat 4 at that point in case you didnt know...


I don't think he's referring to the intensity of the storms as much as he is the damage. While I'm not defending him by any means, he's certainly correct in asserting that we've, fortunately, not had any Ike's, Mitch's, Andrew's, Gustav's, Isidore's, Georges', etc.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
249. JLPR2
12:49 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yes two nice shockers but nothing like an IKE, KATRINA, IVAN, RITA, WILMA, CHARLEY, FRANCES, OR ANDREW. This list can go on and on But i'll stop for now.


Too US centric!
Name some like Mitch, Felix or Dean, you know that hit other places.

And actually earl was a cat 4 at that point in case you didnt know...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
248. centex
12:48 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting doorman79:


It's well on its way! There is a couple of nice subdivisions left but thats bout it. The gangs have taken over the malls and crime is on the rise!
Your a jerk, sould not be news. Find somewhere else to post crap.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
247. KoritheMan
12:48 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting Chicklit:


mighta been '55.


No. 1955 had Connie, Diane, and Ione impact North Carolina as hurricanes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
246. KoritheMan
12:47 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting scott39:
What season in the past have had this many TCs with no hurricane strike on the lower 48?


I can think of four years. It's more than you think. They are:

1951
1990
2000
2001
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
245. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:46 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
9:00 AM JST October 15 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Megi (975 hPa) located at 14.5N 137.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.0N 133.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.3N 128.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.5N 124.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
244. WeatherNerdPR
12:46 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yes two nice shockers but nothing like an IKE, KATRINA, IVAN, RITA, WILMA, CHARLEY, FRANCES, OR ANDREW. This list can go on and on But i'll stop for now.

We haven't seen anything in 6 years until now. That ruined the weather lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
243. Chicklit
12:46 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting scott39:
What season in the past have had this many TCs with no hurricane strike on the lower 48?


mighta been '55.
Mother Nature wants to cut Mexico off from the United States so she sent most of her storms there this season. The rest went Novia Scotia way and sheared off the northeast part of the continent lol.
Rounding process in place.
Also known as erosion which was pretty substantial along the eastern seaboard due to two or was it three hurricanes passing with ??miles offshore. Sorry, not good with the details but remember the general season.
Luckily Haiti has escaped the worst this season which was for what everyone had hoped.
But it ain't over til the Fat Lady sings.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
242. doorman79
12:45 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.


It's well on its way! There is a couple of nice subdivisions left but thats bout it. The gangs have taken over the malls and crime is on the rise!
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241. Chicklit
12:45 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
It's still quite a bit away, East-Southeast of the area. Only a cat. 1 or 2 havent checked lately right now but likely be a monster.


Looks like he's going to live up to his name.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
240. JLPR2
12:45 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.


Ha! You got an excellent brain on your head! :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
239. WeatherNerdPR
12:44 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.

222 deaths to be exact.
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238. HurricaneDean07
12:44 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earl knocked out power, water & trees, while Otto caused $6.5 million here due to destroyed roads and flooding.
yes two nice shockers but nothing like an IKE, KATRINA, IVAN, RITA, WILMA, CHARLEY, FRANCES, OR ANDREW. This list can go on and on But i'll stop for now.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
237. KoritheMan
12:44 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.


Drat! I was just there like a month ago. We should have met up. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
236. KoritheMan
12:43 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Often times, Western Pacific typhoons are underestimated due to the large size of the basin, which allows the storms to pile up more heat and thus strengthen. Would not be surprised to see Megi attain Category 5.
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235. JLPR2
12:43 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We here in the USA have been fortunate this year. Some of our 3rd World neighbors have not been so fortunate. I wish no one would have been harmed this year.


The states were lucky, but didn't the US Virgin islands file a disaster claim or something due to Earl?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
234. Neapolitan
12:43 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, just mostly outside of the US

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
233. WeatherNerdPR
12:43 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. Megi will be causing a lot of problems to the Philippines in a few days.


At least it isn't like last year out there.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
232. Orcasystems
12:42 AM GMT on October 15, 2010
Quoting Chicklit:
Luzon again? I'm too tired to look.
Somebody please post Phillipines imagery.
Is it going north or south of the main island?


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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