Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pottery:

I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....


Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting pottery:

I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....


I'm pretty sure that most people on this forum would agree that Chavez is a lunatic. On the other hand, the original poster might be designated that as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.
??? Did I miss a landfalling major causing hundreds of deaths, US or otherwise?
I don't think even Mexico has really had it all that bad compared to what could have been...

*someone is about to post something about even a single death is significant*

Okay, how many fatalities can be pinned on the entire hurricane season? (Really, what is the number?) Has it even passed [edit] 223? Sure, one isn't good, but if we could have this year every year, that would be GREAT! (compared to what could be, of course)
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Get rid of that lunatic Chavez and maybe things might get better.

I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....
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Quoting Chicklit:
can the planet overcome man's stupidity
or do we have ringside seats to its destruction


We have had ring side seats here in South La for years! My people(native American) have watched the waters take the land in the century. Of course, we adapt as I am in construction, another great industry lol ;P
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Megi seems like the Andrew of the West Pacific, similar path and nothing else happened either year (in their respective ocean)
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Dude I enjoy your words but you are way toooo intense for me.


Oh, c'mon, I'm not that intense. At least not all the time. Just trying to help some of brethren open their eyes and broaden their world view... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Quoting centex:
Gone, kicked out because he was advertising his personal website and trying to get bloggers to move to his site.


That is now how it went down, when he said he was leaving, people ASKED for his new information; so he gave it to them

Every person that is on his site from here, ASKED for the site and his other information.
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Impressive typhoon. Likely that Megi is already a category 2 system on the Saffir-Simpson scale. (Winds are currently up to 90mph.)

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting aprinz1979:
just drop it. A fruit cake is someone that when threatened dials 911 and his problems are solved. When you learn how to survive in the streets and learn how to defend yourself and stay alive then you can call someone a fruit cake. Until then, keep your mouth shut or else keep your phone by you so you can call 911 and they can save you. Or just do what you do, sit behind a PC in the safety of your home and insult people in a forum.

+1000 Amigo, yes there are other human beings in the world some just don't realize it, yet they wonder why the hatred, yet I'm pro -american though not american, but I clearly understand where you're coming from!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
I say this we may get 99L and maybe 90L by the end of the weekend and maybe TS Richard and TD#20 later
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Too bad for Phillipines.....This is Pacific Megi.....
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Quoting doorman79:


Hey Pottery, Orca!

Remember when Shen give you chills the other day!!!!

I do!
And I hope he keeps them to himself this time around.
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Quoting pottery:

"defiantly" is good...

Good evening all.
Showers and gusty winds here this afternoon and this evening.
Very nice temp. drop too.


Hey Pottery, Orca!

Remember when Shen give you chills the other day!!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
alright bud please just drop it and let the experts teach us about the tropics
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Quoting Ameister12:
This beast is defiantly gonna be a problem.

"defiantly" is good...

Good evening all.
Showers and gusty winds here this afternoon and this evening.
Very nice temp. drop too.

77F right now.
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Seems like man stupidity has let us to a dead end.... What model are can we copy from mankind that REALLY works and solves problems???
Quoting Chicklit:
can the planet overcome man's stupidity?
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Quoting Ameister12:
This beast is defiantly gonna be a problem.
Where do you find the floaters?

Never mind.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
MEGGI
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
This beast is defiantly gonna be a problem.
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307. JLPR2
Quoting Chicklit:
can the planet overcome man's stupidity?


Sadly I doubt it, but there is the ignore button that works wonders. XD
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Wow, she really fell apart once the sun went down.
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can the planet overcome man's stupidity
or do we have ringside seats to its destruction
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting JupiterFL:


Podiatrists office.
ha ha miss that character nevertheless we will really miss him offseason
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.

Dude I enjoy your words but you are way toooo intense for me.
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sebastianflorida

now is that really needed

thats once
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Quoting 285. aprinz1979 1:13 AM GMT on October 15, 2010

"El sur tambien existe" - Mira el link y escucha la letra
Link
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Megi's eyewall has been developing gradually throughout the day. A 21:15 UTC SSMI microwave overpass revealed a relatively vigorous eyewall with only the southwestern semicircle open. I expect an eye to become visible on satellite imagery sometime during the next 12 hours or so. It should also be noted that the eye will be relatively small, no larger than 15 miles in diameter.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Some Of the past Major storms to impact the US From 1960 On to 2010...
Donna, Carla, Betsy, Beulah, Camille, Celia, Carmen, Eloise, Frederic, Allen, Alicia, Elena, Hugo, Bob, Andrew, Opal, Goerges, Mitch, Bret, Floyd, Lili, Isabel, Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, Charley, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dolly, Ike, Gustav And, Earl.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
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287. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September storms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


That's a nice looking disturbance, rather large too!
But I watch even if they are out of season, if the conditions are right there is no reason they couldn't develop.
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Quoting MahFL:
Yellow circle Carib.


AOI/xx/xx
mark
12.55n/80.88w

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes, we have been fortunate this year. All of the activity has been aimed at third world countries. We have dodged the bullet.


Great comment there bud. I am from a 3rd world country and so is my whole family. Trust me, suffering and misery is much greater in a 3rd world country than in the USA. Obviously you haven't been out of the USA. In Caracas, Venezuela where I'm from, poor people (I ain't talking about poor US people that can't drive a BMW so they drive a 1980's Buick) build houses out of cardboard, aluminum, or whatever they could find in the Government owned land (Mostly hills in Caracas) and when there is a simple thunderstorm many kids die. So I would MUCH rather a hurricane come over to the USA where people are gonna be hot because they'll lose power for 3 - 4 days and then have to put up with the hassle of the insurance companies and the contractors fixing their roofs than lose lives (LITTLE KIDS) and increase the poverty, misery, and starvation.

Don't think 3rd world countries don't have people that suffer. It's like they say in Venezuela, you might be a gringo but your $H!T stinks just as bad as mine.

I can tell you didn't mean any harm in your comment but I just want to let you know others have feelings too
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Quoting centex:
Gone, kicked out because he was advertising his personal website and trying to get bloggers to move to his site.
wow then seeya
stormw. no class stormw i will tune you out.
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Quoting Chicklit:

no that happened later i think


skin wasn't thick enough to take criticism imo. o well. history.

So Paula's getting squeezed and looking worse than ever, I agree. But the circulation center looks to be mostly over the straights now
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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