Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JupiterFL:


I hope that I am crazy to them. Otherwise something is wrong with me.


Thats an oxymoron. The idea that the world has to be like us or serve us is going to be our demise! Look around, its already begun!
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99L= Dream is still alive!!!!!!!!!!
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375. sunlinepr 2:40 AM GMT on October 15, 2010

Please stop confusing people on here with facts and figures.... some do not respond well to reality :)

You to may end up with a one way chopper trip :)
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Quoting doorman79:


My ? to you is, What makes you think that "you aren't a lunny to them"? It's a big world!


I hope that I am crazy to them. Otherwise something is wrong with me.
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Quoting JupiterFL:
They are all lunatics if you ask me. Sneaky smart, yes, but still lunatics.


My ? to you is, What makes you think that "you aren't a lunny to them"? It's a big world!
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Main post in Yahoo
10 Signs by Gus Lubin in Recession, Emerging Markets

Provided by the Business Insider:

If you want this info..... look in Yahoo....
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Round trip to Global Wildlife surely is.


Global Wildlife sits where the old town of unidess sits. The old concrete blocks and slabs in the middle of it was the middle of the old town.
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They are all lunatics if you ask me. Sneaky smart, yes, but still lunatics.
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paula go bye,bye....i doubt even a td still,so much for levi's theory that it wouldnt just dissapate,cause in 12hrs it will be!!!...just sayn....
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I am currently unable to access the Cuban radar, does anybody have the site URL for the academic who has radar images saved for landfalling storms? I think it may have been at a Colorado university.

TIA
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hah pottery, you're a wise man, China is ok, but Cuba is a no no, catch my drift, what a world? Chavez a lunatic, no way, personally I don't care for the man, but he sure knows how to play the game, some are so .......

Cuba is a No No, because of an Economic blokade to that island for more than 50 years... If that wasn't the case, It would be a Yes Yes... Maybe the strongest democracy in the Caribbean....Political and Economic mistakes my friend... Remember that guy went to DC to meet with JFK....
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Round trip to Global Wildlife surely is.


Round trip lol!
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Quoting doorman79:


No way its an hour from you!
Round trip to Global Wildlife surely is.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Back in an hour...(Isn't that short a trip)


No way its an hour from you!
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Quoting doorman79:


Its just a short trip from you! It's by Unidess (Global Wildlife)
Back in an hour...(Isn't that short a trip)
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
He better also be aware of what happened to Noriega. I'd oil the wheel if I were him.


Or??
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Just looked it up. Been in LA between BR and Slidell for a total of about 25 years but had never heard of it. but there it is on the map, right in the middle.


Its just a short trip from you! It's by Unidess (Global Wildlife)
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Quoting doorman79:


You live just around the corner from the town of husser, atmo. I can tell you stories that you could or couldn't believe about what happened there years ago!
Just looked it up. Been in LA between BR and Slidell for a total of about 25 years but had never heard of it. but there it is on the map, right in the middle.
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Quoting aprinz1979:
just drop it. A fruit cake is someone that when threatened dials 911 and his problems are solved. When you learn how to survive in the streets and learn how to defend yourself and stay alive then you can call someone a fruit cake. Until then, keep your mouth shut or else keep your phone by you so you can call 911 and they can save you. Or just do what you do, sit behind a PC in the safety of your home and insult people in a forum.


This... This is just hilarious. Especially the bolded part. What do you do for an encore?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
He better also be ware of what happened to Noriega. I'd oil the wheel if I were him.


We can't oil our own wheels, much less the worlds!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


That is now how it went down, when he said he was leaving, people ASKED for his new information; so he gave it to them

Every person that is on his site from here, ASKED for the site and his other information.


Right. Truth is, the bashers and trolls drove him to do something that got him banned. Pretty sad.
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Megi has intensified some more. Now a category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale with 1-minute maximum sustained winds near 90kts (105mph).

1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.0N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, AIRCRAFT, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 137.1E



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting pottery:
Anyway.
See you all in the a.m., sometime.
Stay safe all.


Peace!
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It takes one ........
Man you want an argument bad! Got to be a site that caters to that. Anybody got the lock on Trolls.com. Got to be some money to be made.
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Quoting pottery:

Chavez is certainly unorthodox!!
But a Lunatic? I dont think so.

He perfectly understands the role he is playing in South American and Global politics right now. Unless one has an understanding of Venezuelan culture and the relationships that Venezuela has with other countries (Columbia is a good example) in the region (and the importance placed on keeping the US in a state of anxiety, by your competitors), you cant claim that he is crazy.

These are interesting times....

p.s., I am no supporter of his, but when you study the thing, and live next door, bits fall into place.

Hah pottery, you're a wise man, China is ok, but Cuba is a no no, catch my drift, what a world? Chavez a lunatic, no way, personally I don't care for the man, but he sure knows how to play the game, some are so .......
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7711
Anyway.
See you all in the a.m., sometime.
Stay safe all.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
An Aggie came up with the plan, though!


You live just around the corner from the town of husser, atmo. I can tell you stories that you could or couldn't believe about what happened there years ago!
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Quoting pottery:

Chavez is certainly unorthodox!!
But a Lunatic? I dont think so.

He perfectly understands the role he is playing in South American and Global politics right now. Unless one has an understanding of Venezuelan culture and the relationships that Venezuela has with other countries (Columbia is a good example) in the region (and the importance placed on keeping the US in a state of anxiety, by your competitors), you cant claim that he is crazy.

These are interesting times....

p.s., I am no supporter of his, but when you study the thing, and live next door, bits fall into place.


He is aware of the old adage about the squeaky wheel, and the advantages of pulling the tigers tail.
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Quoting doorman79:


And that shows what man can do!



But Shen,

It was all thanks to the Gringo!
That was what was so cool. It was the whole world pitching in. Some of the heavy equip came from China to mention one place "we" like to denigrate.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It takes one ........


Because they are different? Maybe they think the same of us. Its a big world, we will never all think alike!
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Quoting JupiterFL:


I'm pretty sure that most people on this forum would agree that Chavez is a lunatic. On the other hand, the original poster might be designated that as well.

Chavez is certainly unorthodox!!
But a Lunatic? I dont think so.

He perfectly understands the role he is playing in South American and Global politics right now. Unless one has an understanding of Venezuelan culture and the relationships that Venezuela has with other countries (Columbia is a good example) in the region (and the importance placed on keeping the US in a state of anxiety, by your competitors), you cant claim that he is crazy.

These are interesting times....

p.s., I am no supporter of his, but when you study the thing, and live next door, bits fall into place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening, I wrote my first article for the Ft Worth Weather Examiner today.

It has been asubmitted for approval, which is done on the first article & it takes 3 days.

For those who would like to check out my blog, I posted the article there Link
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Quoting doorman79:


And that shows what man can do!



But Shen,

It was all thanks to the Gringo!
An Aggie came up with the plan, though!
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he left
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Gave em to myself reading back.

On a happier note. Got a wonderful case of the chills last night watching the positive side of Humanity in Chile last night. Viva Chile!!

How true!! Felt the same way, What a happy ending, stories like this could make us same like one big happy family, too often it is short lived!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7711
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Gave em to myself reading back.

On a happier note. Got a wonderful case of the chills last night watching the positive side of Humanity in Chile last night. Viva Chile!!


And that shows what man can do!

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Geez, too many fruitcake pc types on this blog! Yet you call me a gringo.
BTW, gringos just saved all those people in Chile.


But Shen,

It was all thanks to the Gringo!
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Quoting LowerCal:

Hurricane Bound For Texas Slowed By Large Land Mass To The South


Ok. now that is funny... sadly its to true of the attitude of many on here... but very funny.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Oh, c'mon, I'm not that intense. At least not all the time. Just trying to help some of brethren open their eyes and broaden their world view... ;-)
What about the sistern?
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Quoting doorman79:


Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!

+1000 , a breath of fresh air, finally a voice of reason and understanding!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7711
Quoting LowerCal:

Hurricane Bound For Texas Slowed By Large Land Mass To The South
LOL. Hadn't seen that one in a while.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


+1 :)


Thank you Orca!
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Quoting doorman79:


Hey Pottery, Orca!

Remember when Shen give you chills the other day!!!!
Gave em to myself reading back.

On a happier note. Got a wonderful case of the chills last night watching the positive side of Humanity in Chile last night. Viva Chile!!
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Quoting doorman79:


Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!


+1 :)
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Quoting pottery:

I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....


Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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