Paula weakens, heads towards Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:42 PM GMT on October 13, 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula has weakened substantially, and may now be a Category 1 hurricane. The aircraft has made three penetrations of the eye as of 3:30pm EDT, and found top surface winds of 80 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top winds seen at flight level of 10,000 feet were 92 mph, which translates to 83 mph surface winds, using the 10% reduction rule of thumb. Based on these data, it is reasonable to assume Paula is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 - 90 mph winds, since the aircraft may not have sampled where the peak winds were occurring. Paula is in the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba, and has now turned and is headed northeast towards Cuba. A rain band with heavy rains lies over the western tip of Cuba, and Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba picked up 2.80" of rain so far today from Paula. However, the winds have remained below 15 mph.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 13, 2010, showing the eye of Paula near the western tip of Cuba. A strong spiral band was affecting western Cuba at this time. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are starting to tear up the southern portion of Paula, and satellite imagery shows the storm now has a lopsided appearance due to the shear. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and lines of low-level arc-shaped clouds are racing away from the southern portion of Paula, indicating that the hurricane has ingested dry air that has created strong thunderstorm downdrafts. Ingestion of this dry air is partially responsible for Paula's recent weakening. Water vapor satellite loops confirm the presence of a large amount of dry air on the south, west, and north sides of Paula.

Forecast for Paula
A small storm like Paula may weaken very quickly under the current 30 knots of wind shear and the dry air surrounding it. However, the latest 3pm EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Paula's eyewall still remained solid, so Paula may be able to hang on for a few more hours before the shear drives dry air into the inner core and destroys the eyewall. Once that occurs, Paula should weaken more rapidly. I'd be surprised if Paula was still a hurricane on Thursday morning, even if it does not hit Cuba. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 35% chance. Key West is given a 4% chance, and Havana, Cuba, an 8% chance. These probabilities are slightly higher than they were in the 5am advisory, reflecting Paula's ability to hang tough in the face of 30 knots of wind shear. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.

The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 35 - 40 knots on Thursday afternoon, and remain above 25 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, combined with the expected landfall of the center over mountainous Cuba, should be enough to destroy Paula by Sunday.

The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the previous sets of runs. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a weak tropical storm on Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippine Island of Luzon early next week.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Good night TS. Nolan Ryan sends his regards.
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Your blog is the bomb!(best!)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, well at least mine had humour :)

BTW, "Your" was correct :P
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minors?
Quoting winter123:

Chile* You're*
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The Hurricane Warning and Tropical Storm watch should be dropped within the next two updates.
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Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting winter123:

Chile* You're*


Ok, well at least mine had humour :)

BTW, "Your" was correct :P
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Good nite to you too! Good nite everyone!


See ya T.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
she is starting a re-fire on the last frame quickly in the eyewall
Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Can you stay on topic, please. You do this all the time.


Good nite to you too! Good nite everyone!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting miajrz:

Not sure what to say. Always thought it was b/c my phone wasn't the latest. Then thought it was the wonderful graphics-heavy things people here post which are better than a thousand words. But, it's the ads?
There are complex scripts that go along with the ads which are used for tracking purposes for marketing. You are correct in that many bloggers load very large images, some animated. I've just noticed the page load times are slow regardless of the number of images, yet the lite, mobile and iPhone versions of Wunderground load rather quickly. atmoaggie mentioned that he "turns off" or disables scripts on his "boysenberry," and that results in faster loads for him.

Don't get me wrong; it works but there's much room for improvement. I use wunderground all the time on mobile devices, and have for years just not always this blog.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You put miners in your Chili?
Your as bad as Tim making White Chili.

Chile* You're*
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Good news around, Paula is no big threat for the moment...
Good news, Everyone is happy with Chile's Miners Rescue....
Meanwhile, here in PR..... comment Removed ....
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645. xcool
you need to move to slidell la Temp

59.3°F
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Go look at #480 on my Blog... posted by SWMBO.


Apple pie for me this holiday!!!!! Thanks alot Orca. Just woke up the house laughing. I'd roll on the floor, but no one to pick me up.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting IKE:
Dedicated to Paula....Link

She may be coming around again. Sort of like those miners in Chili.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
DownCasters 15 WishCasters 1 this year i think my score is correct......LOL


Can you stay on topic, please. You do this all the time.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting Grothar:


How can anybody get ever get mad at someone so twisted. Where do you find these???


Go look at #480 on my Blog... posted by SWMBO.
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Quoting xcool:
GeoffreyWPB yep


I hope so Scott. I miss those $60 electric bills!
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637. xcool
GeoffreyWPB yep
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:




How can anybody get ever get mad at someone so twisted. Where do you find these???
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting LightningCharmer:
You're correct but it takes forever to refresh. It would be nice if Wunderground would make a "lite" version with comments, and they could still have ads for revenue but not all the flashy megabyte hungry ones.

Not sure what to say. Always thought it was b/c my phone wasn't the latest. Then thought it was the wonderful graphics-heavy things people here post which are better than a thousand words. But, it's the ads?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Spanish Caravan


My Eyes Have Seen You, I Can't See Your Face in My Mind.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Can I tell who you really are?


You do and you will sing your last Christmas Carrol.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting NRAamy:
I've got your angst right here, Groth.....


Geez, I thought I had lost it again. Thanks Amy.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey now...
She doesn't like to be called that...


Only her friends can call her that. Ha. Won't allow anyone in public to say it. Reminds her of Liz Taylor, as if it could hurt. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting Grothar:


Hate to say it, but it is politics. They are more giving to academia than private developers. More publicity and less public scrutiny, especially with those large amounts on the table. Look how at the relationship of Katz and Liu on how they did it for the Tera-Grid project, with which I am sure you are familiar. And don't you dare ask you I am.


Can I tell who you really are?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Just seems odd that we get funding and work with NOAA, FEMA, State of Mississippi, the Navy, NASA, U South Alabama, etc. but never seem to have any opportunities whatsoever in our own state. Heck, they even refuse to write any letters of support for NASA or NOAA RFPs for developing operational tools that would be useful for LA.


Hate to say it, but it is politics. They are more giving to academia than private developers. More publicity and less public scrutiny, especially with those large amounts on the table. Look how at the relationship of Katz and Liu on how they did it for the Tera-Grid project, with which I am sure you are familiar. And don't you dare ask you I am.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting xcool:
getting ready for cold november in southeast ..


As far down as so. Fla.?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Riders on the Storm, a personal favorite. So is Light My Fire, People Are Strange, and End of the Night.
Spanish Caravan
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
You're correct but it takes forever to refresh. It would be nice if Wunderground would make a "lite" version with comments, and they could still have ads for revenue but not all the flashy megabyte hungry ones.
I load the full page on my boysenberry. Works ok.

But, is only swift with scripts off in the browser, but no quote or modify that way.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Riders on the storm; When the music is over


Riders on the Storm, a personal favorite. So is Light My Fire, People Are Strange, and End of the Night.
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Quoting miajrz:
Sorry it's so behind, but I'd like to tell Lightning Charmer that choosing "Go to the regular site" on the iphone app will get you the blog comments. (I rejoice, b/c last year this crashed my phone.)
You're correct but it takes forever to refresh. It would be nice if Wunderground would make a "lite" version with comments, and they could still have ads for revenue but not all the flashy megabyte hungry ones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DownCasters 15 WishCasters 1 this year i think my score is correct......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Grothar:


Tell them to get in good with Liz Valenti and her crowd. Just a hint. What about URS?
Hey now...
She doesn't like to be called that...
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Just seems odd that we get funding and work with NOAA, FEMA, State of Mississippi, the Navy, NASA, U South Alabama, etc. but never seem to have any opportunities whatsoever in our own state. Heck, they even refuse to write any letters of support for NASA or NOAA RFPs for developing operational tools that would be useful for LA.


Tell them to get in good with Liz Valenti and her crowd. Just a hint. What about URS?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
getting ready for a wet&cold winter here in northern cali, but nobody seems to agree with me.
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Riders on the storm; When the music's over
Quoting caneswatch:


A great classic. I turned it back on cause you mentioned it. I haven't listened to the song in a while even though I have it on my iPod.
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615. xcool
getting ready for cold november in southeast ..
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Is that in Canada?

Where is Canada?

All right, it's late... tell me in the morning.
see you all tomorrow.
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Sorry, posted a working copy in comment601 instead of the final copy.
It's been corrected with:
HurricanePaula's heading has been (5.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
and
Copy &paste 19.9n86.0w, 20.4n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w-21.5n85.7w, 21.5n85.7w-21.7n85.6w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, cun, hav, nbw, 21.9n85.4w-22.45n84.29w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting aspectre:
Sheesh, you people have been wavin' bye-bye to Paula since before she was named. Guess what? TropicalCyclones dissipate...eventually.
And ya don't get no brownie points for being the first to say that one is gonna RIP.


Can we get brownies instead?

She was not much at her apex. To RIP her is not much difference.
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Quoting Grothar:


The NSF has poured a lot of money to them over the years. You need a good "Liu" on your side. He can be very convincing.
Just seems odd that we get funding and work with NOAA, FEMA, State of Mississippi, the Navy, NASA, U South Alabama, etc. but never seem to have any opportunities whatsoever in our own state. Heck, they even refuse to write any letters of support for NASA or NOAA RFPs for developing operational tools that would be useful for LA.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Is that in Canada?


You don't forget a darn thing, do you? (small chuckle)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Sure we want no brownies, we want it to dissipate doing any harm and without loosing lives...
Quoting aspectre:
Sheesh, you people have been wavin' bye-bye to Paula since before she was named.
Guess what? TropicalCyclones dissipate...eventually. And ya don't get no brownie points for being the first to say that one is gonna RIP.
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608. 7544
paula idk the eye is still intact 80mph can might try to pull a surpise at dmax even with the shear so no rip yet here next
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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