Paula weakens, heads towards Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:42 PM GMT on October 13, 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula has weakened substantially, and may now be a Category 1 hurricane. The aircraft has made three penetrations of the eye as of 3:30pm EDT, and found top surface winds of 80 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top winds seen at flight level of 10,000 feet were 92 mph, which translates to 83 mph surface winds, using the 10% reduction rule of thumb. Based on these data, it is reasonable to assume Paula is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 - 90 mph winds, since the aircraft may not have sampled where the peak winds were occurring. Paula is in the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba, and has now turned and is headed northeast towards Cuba. A rain band with heavy rains lies over the western tip of Cuba, and Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba picked up 2.80" of rain so far today from Paula. However, the winds have remained below 15 mph.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 13, 2010, showing the eye of Paula near the western tip of Cuba. A strong spiral band was affecting western Cuba at this time. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are starting to tear up the southern portion of Paula, and satellite imagery shows the storm now has a lopsided appearance due to the shear. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and lines of low-level arc-shaped clouds are racing away from the southern portion of Paula, indicating that the hurricane has ingested dry air that has created strong thunderstorm downdrafts. Ingestion of this dry air is partially responsible for Paula's recent weakening. Water vapor satellite loops confirm the presence of a large amount of dry air on the south, west, and north sides of Paula.

Forecast for Paula
A small storm like Paula may weaken very quickly under the current 30 knots of wind shear and the dry air surrounding it. However, the latest 3pm EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Paula's eyewall still remained solid, so Paula may be able to hang on for a few more hours before the shear drives dry air into the inner core and destroys the eyewall. Once that occurs, Paula should weaken more rapidly. I'd be surprised if Paula was still a hurricane on Thursday morning, even if it does not hit Cuba. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 35% chance. Key West is given a 4% chance, and Havana, Cuba, an 8% chance. These probabilities are slightly higher than they were in the 5am advisory, reflecting Paula's ability to hang tough in the face of 30 knots of wind shear. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.

The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 35 - 40 knots on Thursday afternoon, and remain above 25 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, combined with the expected landfall of the center over mountainous Cuba, should be enough to destroy Paula by Sunday.

The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the previous sets of runs. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a weak tropical storm on Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippine Island of Luzon early next week.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Alot of good looking storms popping up in the visible satellite.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting aspectre:
BTW The most recent heading

takes HurricanePaula over plenty of heat

toward a deeper reserve of heat

and toward more readily accessible heat



if she starts venting below her she will have 2 vents to drop pressure again. i wonder if the vorticity is suggesting such, plus what appears to be a weak band of venting (or maybe it's not?).
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BTW The most recent heading

takes HurricanePaula over plenty of heat

toward a deeper reserve of heat

and toward more readily accessible heat
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The pressure dropped 1mb down to 1002.

A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 12:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°45'N 84°26'W (22.75N 84.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 53 miles (85 km) to the WNW (295°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,079m (10,102ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 39kts (From the NW at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,006m (9,862ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the south quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) in the west quadrant at 12:11:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
The Keys could get some pretty rough weather.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
JB this morn.

THURSDAY 7 AM
THE WORST SEASON EVER FOR SELECTIVE VERIFICATION

If anything, the standards I am adopting, though revealing weaknesses in my ideas when they are not right, are being shown as ones that the field has to adopt if we want to upgrade the level of forecasting and communication on tropical cyclones. The police have to be policed, in other words, and Paula is a prime example.

I can't figure this out. Why not say what it is? It's one thing to argue about track, which by the way I still think will find what is left of this south of Cuba, this weekend, but that is an argument that people of good will can engage in. But to not upgrade in the face of a system that should have had recons in 24-36 hours before, and then now, not have this downgraded BUT FORECAST IT TO BECOME WHAT IT ALREADY IS... A TROPICAL STORM, is incredible. Pressure at 997 mb and 55kt surface winds reported in an unwinding storm mean it's not only a tropical storm, but has been in that state for several hours beforehand. Why not call it what it is?

I spoke with a more senior member of the meteorological community last night, someone who runs in circles with folks older than I, and he told me that he says that older hurricane forecasters have never seen it this bad. Even Nicole, just simply declaring it dead when one could see the system still around and then the pressure fall center and wind increase center come right up over the Outer Banks, with a pressure LOWER than what this is now and winds comparable to it, was arguable. But think about what we have here. A failure to downgrade what should be... though I am sure they will at any moment, but downgrading the very system that did impact the U.S. and contribute to the major flooding in the East.

It's strange because there is no rhyme or reason. It's almost as if by causing confusion, it leads to people having to pay attention to see what the next move will be. I don't think there is any malicious intent... I really don't, I just think there is a lack of a standard on each of these. To call Ike a non-major was absurd, and dropping the category of a major so 110 mph is included does not solve the problem of the overall power of the storm. Why not go to my idea that incorporates pressure? Perhaps 'cause they did not think of it. Or the naming standard... both putting it on, or taking it off. Closed rotary circulation, winds of gale force in one quad... name it, then keep the name on till it's long gone.

Perhaps this is not the peak... the peak may have been Earl and Igor, both severely underestimated in Canada (Earl was a hurricane) because of the lack of respect for what the very low pressures meant when a storm comes close to the coast and the frictional aspects cause a tightening so the real wind shows up. The 947 mb 12-mile-wide eye Alex, you don't think there were 120 mb winds at landfall? What kind of planet are we on here?

The fact is if you adopt standards, you can see what is right and wrong, and improve on it. For instance, there has to be a reason for no major storms near the U.S. coast even though the amount of actual storms got within the areas I had. I am already tracking it down, and I think the very heavy rains early in the season in the northern Gulf and the collapse of the loop current may have something to do with it. I can't very well just say, "oh well, that's the breaks," because the other aspects of my forecast were right... though they are least important in the public, they are clues to the meteorology. I am formulating the idea now, will have it out for you later, but am writing it up for my clients first. But the point is, unless you have actual standards, you are all over the place. You need to have a consistent way of measurement and adhere to it... to be able to actually understand what is going on.

While the hurricane aspect here is the object of the post, please understand I don't believe their is malicious intent in most cases, though the lack of recon this weekend distorted the actual history of Paula so as to not cause an embarrassment of development with the time line of a low probability forecast. However, in bigger things, the cherry picking and adjustment of data against a non-consistent standard, changing the rule as you will as you go along, to help convince people to adopt a stance that has to do with national policy, is malicious in my opinion, especially when each point can and is countered (see the rebuttal of Michael Mann's op-ed in the Washington Post... point by point, I believe it is on WUWT, or Climate Depot or Icecap) the lack of the mainstream media picking up things like Dr. Hal Lewis' letter of resignation (it would be like the pope resigning the Catholic Church) or the unwillingness to simply wait to see if the major drivers such as the PDO and AMO are the overwhelming cause for the Earth's temperatures.

By the way, the Yankees are important to the global warming debate. Mike Steinberg, a genius here at Accuweather who helps me with my power points, has a red-herring graph of the stock market that can link its movement to global warming... an astoundingly strong correlation that predicts global temperatures to warm or cool. Then he has a graph called a-rod herring that shows the Yankees winning has a correlation to the global temperatures. So watch and see what the evil empire does as we march into the World Series.

The PHILLIES (or Giants I guess) have a duty to prevent global warming and stop the Yankees, if Tampa Bay can't do it. And I am a Yankees' fan, but I want to save the planet (I am also a Phillies' fan).

In fact, anyone who plays sports at that level is darn good to me.

Ciao for now. ***
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miami is below the 40 kt stream but....will she hold together?

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

it looks like she is getting more support on her lower quads, or is she getting stretched out?

it looks like some venting and here is the vorticity


Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
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Paula has wobbled back more to the NE now. Maybe she will stay offshore and go N of Cuba.

""
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
is all of the sheared moisture bringing energy to s.fla? does it have punch to it enough to form tornadoes, microbursts, etc?
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paula is not moving east.....
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747. IKE
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Totally. Miami's definitely gonna feel the full wrath of this thing later...in the form of a couple raindrops or two :)



lol....paula sure is vicious lol
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


so whatcha think cat5? think this thing has a shot of hanging on and hitting miami in any way?

Well, yes, according to the following two comments posted yesterday afternoon:
Quoting AVeryReasonableAndWellKnownForumMemberWhoNeverFallsIntoHyperbole:
Wow, the unthinkable is happening. I believe now that Paula may make it to South Florida as a Category 1 Storm. So much for no landfalls this year. Watches should go up soon. The BAMS have shifted north, FL Keys to Miami, look out and start your preparations NOW!
Quoting AVeryReasonableAndWellKnownForumMemberWhoNeverFallsIntoHyperbole:
Don't listen to some people on here, start your preparations for Paula if you live in Extreme South Florida, (Keys to Miami) Paula is disobeying the forecast and Mother Nature is doing what it wants to do. We may have a Category 1 landfall. Even if it doesn't, you need to make preparations NOW. Start buying some supplies, don't wait till the last minute. 30 knots of shear will not break down the storm, especially if Paula is going to move in the same direction, could cause her to maintain her strength.
;-)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS starts developing another Caribbean system in a reasonable timeframe (monday)

By Wednesday, its a full fledged hurricane.


So does the NOGAPS


so i read cat 5's notice of huge shear in 180 hrs (5 days) but if this storm is predicted to be a full hurricane by next wednesday that puts it at 240 hrs and still in the central western caribbean. what does the shear look like across the GOM when and if the path takes Richard north?
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742. IKE
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 12:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 12:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°45'N 84°26'W (22.75N 84.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 53 miles (85 km) to the WNW (295°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,079m (10,102ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 39kts (From the NW at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,006m (9,862ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the south quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) in the west quadrant at 12:11:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
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Paula's eye can just be made out on long-range radar out of Key West. I, for one, am happy for today's rain, and hope it keeps coming.
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Good Morning!

Are the latest models picking up anything after Paula?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:


so whatcha think cat5? think this thing has a shot of hanging on and hitting miami in any way?
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Good Morning...
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HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (2.2degrees east of) NorthEast
from its previous heading of (2.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions creased to ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h)
Category2
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A

Copy &paste 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, cun, cat, 22.7n84.5w-25.8n81.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~23hours from now to Chokoloskee,Florida

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
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731. HCW
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P.S.
THAT is impressive Shear.
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Quoting IKE:
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)...weakening system.


That is up 6mb from the last vortex message.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Morning/evening.

I see the turn toward the east in the water vapor, but the southern hook in the wondermap seems very off.

When did we start getting Cuban radar? This is the first time I have noticed it. How cool!
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wel robert88 if it start to move eastward now then it would likely not stay on cuba long and reapair in the Caribbean sea between the Isle of pine and Cuba and loop around earler and maybe not die out and maybe regain it's TS staus
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725. IKE
Quoting robert88:


I know that is still way out there... but doesn't it seem the US has a force field in place and nothing is getting through this season lol Talk about being lucky once again if that panned out. You would expect closer to home development in October is a shoe in for a direct hit in the NE GOM.


200mb winds at 180 hours...anything heading into the GOM would get sheared to death...

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724. IKE
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)...weakening system.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
On that GFS run; post 704:

Luckily, it takes it out & sweeps it off to the northeast in the later frames. Cuba would take a hit if this would materialize & perhaps Bermuda way down the road.


I know that is still way out there... but doesn't it seem the US has a force field in place and nothing is getting through this season lol Talk about being lucky once again if that panned out. You would expect closer to home development in October is a shoe in for a direct hit in the NE GOM.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
latest vortex message shows Paula is still producing sustained surface winds close to minimal hurricane strength.


A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 11:09:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°39'N 84°30'W (22.65N 84.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 54 miles (87 km) to the WNW (287°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,079m (10,102ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW/W (258°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 325° at 46kts (From the NW at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the south quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:12:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 13°C (55°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the WSW (238°) from the flight level center
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Paula is starting to make that E turn.

""

Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
718. IKE
4:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 14
Location: 22.3°N 84.9°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
.....................................

...PAULA HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...FORECAST TO WEAKEN...
7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 14
Location: 22.7°N 84.5°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
.............................................


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR OVER WESTERN
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. THE WEATHER
STATION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A 60
MPH...97 KM/HR WIND GUST.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
What a difference a day year makes:

According to HAMweather, over the past four days, the CONUS has seen 1,132 record highs (or high minimums), and just 36 record lows (or low maximums). By comparison, last year many of the areas now seeing those record highs were instead digging out from under various record snow events, and/or just getting ready for others.
Stop already...LOL...You may get the wooly-worms, peach fuzz, onions skins, all the other weather lore posts about the pending winter! Good Morning!


Paula's rain is here or on the way south Florida.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop - Key West, FL Radar



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sorry I ment to say CCCCCCCCC LOL

and no BBBBBBBB
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I'd choose F, but it's only a dream!!!
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Quoting winter123:Poll: Paula's futureA) Die as soon as it touches cubaB) Loop back into the carribean and re-intensifyC) Die slowly over cubaD) "CMC doomcast" - Intensify to cat 5 and head straight for New Orleans or another heavily populated areaE) Other (explain)


I say BBBBBBB LOL
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Quoting winter123:
Poll: Paula's future

A) Die as soon as it touches cuba
B) Loop back into the carribean and re-intensify
C) Die slowly over cuba
D) "CMC doomcast" - Intensify to cat 5 and head straight for New Orleans or another heavily populated area
E) Other (explain)

F. Find Osama Bin Laden and end the war on terror!
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HurricanePaula's heading turned eastward to (2.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of (9.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8mph(~12.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12

Copy &paste 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, cun, hav, 22.3n84.9w-22.531n84.205w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~5hours from now to SanRamon,Cuba

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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