Paula misses Mexico, stalls in Yucatan Channel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on October 13, 2010

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Hurricane Paula is now stationary over the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba. Despite Paula's Category 2 strength and passage just 60 miles east of the Mexican coast, the hurricane has not brought tropical storm-force winds to Mexico. In Cancun, top winds measured so far this morning have been just 17 mph, with gusts to 27 mph. A modest 0.17" of rain fell between midnight and 8:21am local time. Cancun radar (Figure 1) shows that the rain bands in the tightly would core of Paula lie just offshore of Cancun this morning. Paula had little impact on Mexico's Cozumel Island as the storm passed by last night; winds remained below 20 mph during passage.


Figure 1. Radar image at 9am EDT 10/13/10 from Cancun, Mexico. The core of Paula was located 60 miles to the east of Cancun, and Paula's rainbands were remaining just offshore. Image credit: CONAGUA Mexico.

Satellite imagery shows little change to Paula has occurred this morning. The amount and intensity of the storm's heavy thunderstorms have remained about the same as last night, and satellite intensity estimates continue to support calling Paula a hurricane with 90 - 100 mph winds. The Hurricane Hunters left Paula at 4am, and will not be back until 2pm, so we will have to wait until then to get a better estimate of Paula's intensity. At that time, I expect they will find a weaker storm, as wind shear has increased to a high 25 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the south. Cancun Radar shows the storm has stalled and been stationary between 6am - 9am EDT; if Paula remains nearly stationary for several more hours, the hurricane may churn up cold water from the depths, causing weakening. However, Paula is currently over a patch of the deepest, warmest water in the entire North Atlantic. Waters of 26°C (79°F) or warmer extend to a depth of 400 feet (120 meters) in the Yucatan Channel, and it will take much longer than usual for a stationary hurricane in this region to significantly cool the surface waters.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Paula taken at 12:20pm EDT 10/12/10 by NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Paula
Paula should start moving to the northeast or east later this morning, bringing it near the tip of western Cuba late tonight or early Thursday morning. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 34% chance. Key West is given a 2% chance, and Havana, Cuba, a 6% chance. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.

The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 30 knots tonight, and remain about 30 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, caused by strong upper-level winds from the south, should begin to eat away at the south side of Paula's eyewall today, causing the inner core of the storm to collapse and Paula to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday. If Paula hits the western tip of Cuba, weakening will be hastened. Given Paula's small size, once the inner core is disrupted, the storm could weaken very quickly.

The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) continue to show a fair degree of uncertainty about the future path of Paula. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula through or just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a strong tropical storm on Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fifteen has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippines early next week.

Next update
I'll have an update between 3pm - 4pm this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Paula (LRandyB)
Hurricane Paula

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608. Orcasystems
8:22 PM GMT on October 13, 2010





Basic course... 010
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
605. beell
7:59 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
new blog
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16117
604. Neapolitan
7:57 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.

Reed, there certainly is a lot of downcasting on this site at times...but you need to remember that there's a difference between an unscientific downcast and a forecast based on meteorlogy and climatology that doesn't call for as much development as some would hope.

Now, Paula is weakening, and while she may have spurts of growth from here on out, the trend trend has been--and will continue to be--toward negative development. ATCF says her max winds are now down to 75 knots (85 mph), and I would anticipate that dropping perhaps a bit further by the 5PM TWO. At the rate she's declining, she's very likely to be just a tropical storm by morning, if not later this evening.

The HH found 991 mb on its first pass, 992 on its second, and 993 on its third. It's making its fourth pass very shortly, and I would imagine it won't find anything below 994 (if even that low).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
603. barotropic
7:57 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.


Tell the recon...the information they are providing barely supports hurricane strength not to mention the sat appearance.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
602. barotropic
7:55 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.


There is a significant rise in pressure, winds are down and sat appearance is declining rapidly now. All this and its only going to get worse. Prop will stay a cat 1 for 5pm as thats what it is.....and TS by morning or sooner....maybe less. Squalls and some rain for extreme S. Florida. No cat 1 or 2, not even close. All IMO only.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
601. stillwaiting
7:53 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.
,bet its just barely,by 11pm she'll ge a downgrade imo...sheer just getting to high now...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
600. aprinz1979
7:52 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
599. dmh1026
7:51 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Looks like Paula is being shredded...Put a fork in her...
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
598. DontAnnoyMe
7:51 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
597. JLPR2
7:50 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:
From Yahoo Joke (not mine)

Although he was a qualified meteorologist, Hopkins ran up a terrible record of forecasting for the TV news program. He became something of a local joke when a newspaper began keeping a record of his predictions and showed that he'd been wrong almost three hundred times in a single year. That kind of notoriety was enough to get him fired. He moved to another part of the country and applied for a similar job. One blank on the job application called for the reason for leaving his previous position. Hopkins wrote, "The climate didn't agree with me."


Wow, ha...ha...ha?
It didnt even make me smile. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
596. jonelu
7:49 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting pottery:

But not really very likely.

Not very likely looks to be playing out...
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
595. toddbizz
7:49 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Thanks for posting the precip potential for SFL...looks wet
Member Since: September 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
594. reedzone
7:48 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Down to Category 1.. as expected.


Regarding the rest of the season.. I'll be surprised to see if we don't get another storm. 2008, which at this point had Omar out in the Caribbean, saw 1 more after that.. Paloma.

2007 was at 13, saw two named storms after the 13th.

2005 saw 7 named storms after this date.

'04 saw 1, '03 saw 3, and so on.

We'll probably end the season with 18-9-5.


Magic number right there, 18-9-5, my prediction from May. I think winds will be around 80-90 on the next advisory.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
593. 7544
7:48 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
models will shift north again latter
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
592. KeysieLife
7:48 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
New blog peeps!
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409
591. toddbizz
7:48 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
thanks for posting the precip potential for SFL looks like the spillway will open amd the snook will be hungry....
Member Since: September 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
590. Buhdog
7:47 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting oracle28:


I think it will go somewhere south of north florida and north of south cuba, myself.


did you take over for destin jeff as the class clown? where is DJ anyway?
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
589. 7544
7:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
closed eyewall hmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
588. reedzone
7:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sorry, I didn't see that Levi had said that... now I will have to pay attention and go check.


Go ahead, he said the storm moving in the direction of shear will keep it from rapidly weakening, unless it makes landfall. It's been under 20-30 knots all day so far and is still at 100 mph. per the 2 p.m. advisory. Not saying it's gonna blow up, thought they would find winds of 105 mph. but I was wrong. I don't see them classifying a TS from a 100 mph. at 5 p.m. Probably went down due to some disruption from the shear.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
587. CybrTeddy
7:44 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Down to Category 1.. as expected.


Regarding the rest of the season.. I'll be surprised to see if we don't get another storm. 2008, which at this point had Omar out in the Caribbean, saw 1 more after that.. Paloma.

2007 was at 13, saw two named storms after the 13th.

2005 saw 7 named storms after this date.

'04 saw 1, '03 saw 3, and so on.

We'll probably end the season with 18-9-5.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23489
586. 7544
7:43 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
looks like we have a northward jog ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
585. oracle28
7:41 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


No, I'm starting to feel confident that it will stay just north of Cuba. Models are starting to finally come in line with a good agreement.


I think it will go somewhere south of north florida and north of south cuba, myself.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
584. Seflhurricane
7:41 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
majority of the models indicate it will head between the north coast of cuba and the florida Keys as of the last run.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
583. sunlinepr
7:41 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
From Yahoo Joke (not mine)

Although he was a qualified meteorologist, Hopkins ran up a terrible record of forecasting for the TV news program. He became something of a local joke when a newspaper began keeping a record of his predictions and showed that he'd been wrong almost three hundred times in a single year. That kind of notoriety was enough to get him fired. He moved to another part of the country and applied for a similar job. One blank on the job application called for the reason for leaving his previous position. Hopkins wrote, "The climate didn't agree with me."
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
582. 7544
7:40 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
looks like she wants to head for the fla straights n of cuba hmmm. paula does not want touch landmass yet
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
581. reedzone
7:39 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting 7544:
could we see any additional watches reed what u think as shes going nne with the outer bands as far north as 25 n tia

570. reedzone 3:31 PM EDT on October 13, 2010
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.


Not really, this should affect Cuba at the most, the Keys may get some TS force winds, since the wind field is expanding some.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
580. Bayside
7:39 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
...is a good guess.


Got it
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
579. aprinz1979
7:37 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Riddle me this....."What do you call a weakening cyclone that some see as a strengthening beast?"
.
.
.
.
.
A tropical occlusion
.
.
.
.
hey...there's only so much you can do with cyclone humor.


LOL

you are right you can only do so much with what you've got or you may risk going to WU jail.

Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
577. reedzone
7:36 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting aprinz1979:


Reed,

Since the blog is DEAD, do you think Paula is going to make a direct landfall on South Florida?

Let's see if that gets the blog going again!


No, I'm starting to feel confident that it will stay just north of Cuba. Models are starting to finally come in line with a good agreement.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
576. Orcasystems
7:34 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.


Sorry, I didn't see that Levi had said that... now I will have to pay attention and go check.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
575. CybrTeddy
7:34 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting robert88:
The GFS has dropped Richard and ECMWF doesn't show anything as well. Looks like Paula will be it until the last week of the month when the MJO comes back.


Given the fact NONE of the models developed Paula, I suspect they're wrong.. especially given the fact the GFS was developing this system 5+ days out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23489
574. DontAnnoyMe
7:34 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting toddbizz:
Can anyone take a guess on precip amts for SFL I haven't seen any maps...deluge?? Light Moderate Noah Ark????


Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
573. 7544
7:34 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
could we see any additional watches reed what u think as shes going nne with the outer bands as far north as 25 n tia

570. reedzone 3:31 PM EDT on October 13, 2010
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
572. robert88
7:34 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Wobbling around out there. Center moved to the NNW lol

""
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
571. RickWPB
7:32 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting toddbizz:
Can anyone take a guess on precip amts for SFL I haven't seen any maps...deluge?? Light Moderate Noah Ark????

Not too much as yet.

Radar estimates last 24 hrs
Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 350
570. reedzone
7:31 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
569. robert88
7:30 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 19:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 19:00:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°32'N 85°44'W (21.5333N 85.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 76 miles (122 km) to the ENE (69°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,039m (9,970ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (200°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 308° at 62kts (From the NW at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (200°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,034m (9,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the east quadrant at 18:10:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:03:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) from the flight level center
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
568. 7544
7:29 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting aspectre:
HurricanePaula's heading was (2.6degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~5mph(~8km/h)
Cat.2 H.Paula
12Oct 06pmGMT - - 18.8n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#5
12Oct 09pmGMT - - 19.2n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
13Oct 12amGMT - - 19.6n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#6A
13Oct 03amGMT - - 19.9n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A

Copy &paste 18.8n85.8w, 19.2n86.0w, 19.6n86.0w, 19.9n86.0w, 20.4n86.0w-20.7n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w-21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.9w-21.3n85.8w, 21.3n85.8w-21.5n85.7w, cun, srq, pbi, 21.5n85.7w-27.41n82.59w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3days16hours from now to the BayshoresGardens,Florida

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.


nne still a cat 2 getting larger in size
convection speading outflow as far north at 25n looks like so fla could be back in play for some strong ts effects should know more in a couple of hours
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
567. oracle28
7:29 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.


Yes, we're all crazy, you are the only normal one here. Lonely feeling, huh?

Paula is weakening, but expanding.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
565. robert88
7:28 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Highest FL wind is 80kts. Paula might be a TS before Recon gets home.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
564. oracle28
7:28 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Riddle me this....."What do you call a weakening cyclone that some see as a strengthening beast?"
.
.
.
.
.
A tropical occlusion
.
.
.
.
hey...there's only so much you can do with cyclone humor.


Did you mean "trOPTICAL occlusion"?
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
563. CosmicEvents
7:26 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting aprinz1979:
Anybody know any good jokes? The blog is dead!
Riddle me this....."What do you call a weakening cyclone that some see as a strengthening beast?"
.
.
.
.
.
A tropical occlusion
.
.
.
.
hey...there's only so much you can do with cyclone humor.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5516
562. aprinz1979
7:25 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting oracle28:


And the shower curtain. I only got a brief explanation of that one yesterday.


Lol

Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
561. robert88
7:25 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Latest pass highest surface wind near the center 74.8mph. Paula is barely a hurricane.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
560. reedzone
7:25 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
559. oracle28
7:24 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
Quoting DookiePBC:


There's the one about the XTRP "model". That one's been getting a lot of airtime lately.


And the shower curtain. I only got a brief explanation of that one yesterday.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
558. Orcasystems
7:23 PM GMT on October 13, 2010
SWMBO and I had words,

But I didn't get to use mine.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.