Western Caribbean disturbance 98L still a threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (98L) in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has the potential to become a tropical depression at any time today or Monday as it moves northwestwards toward the Nicaragua/Honduras border at 5 - 10 mph. The disturbance has quite a bit of spin, but an organized surface circulation is not yet apparent on satellite images. Colombia's San Andres Island, to the southwest of 98L's center, is reporting northwest winds, suggesting that 98L may be close to having a closed surface circulation. An a href=http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_ima ges/cur_50km/zooms/WMBds20.pngASCAT pass from 10:41am EDT this morning confirms that 98L does not have a closed circulation, but it is almost there.Satellite imagery shows a relatively meager amount of intense thunderstorms associated with 98L, and pressures at nearby land stations are falling slowly or not at all. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that considerable dry air surrounds 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 98L on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 98L.

Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday and Monday, and to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Intermittent heavy rains will also affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Western Cuba over the next three days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status at any time, and NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across Cuba. None of computer models available as of 1pm EDT developed 98L into a tropical depression. I don't believe 98L will become a depression today, but expect that it will be one by Tuesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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681. pcola57
1:44 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting pcola57:
Good morning all,
Had driver probs last night and now can't access certain links and animations.If anyone has a good link or images for Jet Stream and forecasted changes I sure would appreciate it.
TIA
Moe


Been able to muddle through and get straightened out.All better now.Thanks anyway WU bloggers.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update.
Great info as always.I think the fat lady is humming also.
v/r
Moe
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
680. IKE
1:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
678. stillwaiting
1:23 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting afj3:

What does "sheesh" mean anyway?
.....sheesh;jee-wiz,oh my,jeez,uy-ya-yoi....are all the samething,lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
676. afj3
1:19 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting WXHEAD:


As soon as she shows up for work (I have a coworker named Paula that we are giving crap to...always seems to be a "storm" around her). Seriously though, it needs a lot more yet to be named.

Question: for all of the Saints fans that say "Who Dat"...did you actually expect the Cardinals to say "ME?"

Thanks! I have an ex-girlfriend named Paula. I knew this was going to come back and haunt me....
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
673. stillwaiting
1:17 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


I said next week! 0Z has this over SW FL late next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_312.shtml
....you put waaaaay to much faith in long range models,oh and not 1 tc has come to east-central fl,as you predict w/almost every tc that formd this year,you post alot of jibberish imo...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
672. DookiePBC
1:15 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Holy Cats...somebody break out the hand puppets for this one.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
670. afj3
1:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Synchonize watches! On my mark... 4..3..2..1...


Sheesh..

What does "sheesh" mean anyway?
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
669. PensacolaDoug
1:09 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting afj3:
When does Paula officially become Paula?



Synchonize watches! On my mark... 4..3..2..1...


Sheesh..
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 660
668. wunderkidcayman
1:08 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
I see the COC near 16.5N 83.1W moving NNW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
667. pcola57
1:07 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Good morning all,
Had driver probs last night and now can't access certain links and animations.If anyone has a good link or images for Jet Stream and forecasted changes I sure would appreciate it.
TIA
Moe
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
666. kmanhurricaneman
1:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
well gotta go make some money to feed the vultures, chat to u all later.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
665. IKE
1:03 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Cayman Brac, GC (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 31 sec ago
Overcast
82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the East
Pressure: 29.89 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 92 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1400 ft
Overcast 3000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
664. stormwatcherCI
1:03 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting kimoskee:
Good Morning all.

I actually have sunshine this morning in Kingston, Jamaica. Mets says isolated showers so I'm hoping it will last in my area.

Looks like Cayman is getting clobbered (with rain). Hope everyone over there okay.

Have a good one.

Yes, we are getting heavy showers and gusty winds off and on. BTW, good morning. Gotta run out the door to work now but will be checking in off and on today. Too close for comfort. :D
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
663. afj3
1:01 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
When does Paula officially become Paula?
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
662. Orcasystems
1:00 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
661. kimoskee
1:00 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Good Morning all.

I actually have sunshine this morning in Kingston, Jamaica. Mets says isolated showers so I'm hoping it will last in my area.

Looks like Cayman is getting clobbered (with rain). Hope everyone over there okay.

Have a good one.

Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
659. SweetHomeBamaGOM
12:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
it may be the case that the convection in her northeast quad is helping her fight the dry air around cuba. the dry air, the wind shear, and the divergence all appear as if they may be collapsing. they are being attacked from so many directions i think they may buckle and collapse on themselves. in the past 24 hours the dry air in the GOM has taken a pounding and appears to be retreating due to the variables playing out. 98L has extended her moisture clear up to the tip of western cuba, and it appears as if the extended convection is chewing on the dry air without drying her core out. she has withstood an onslaught of dry air and yet produced considerable moisture far to the north making it possible for her to begin to form a tighter coc while the outer bands are holding the front lines for her.

alot of upper level moisture appears to be across the northern GOM this morning. Not a cloud in the sky at sunrise, but grey and dim sunlight for an hour regardless. now it is getting brighter but its hazy. that's just a side note.


this could be very interesting in the next 12 hours. rapid development may occur since she has made her own environment to pull a coc together while at the same time fighting off the dry air to the north. it appears the dry air isn't reaching her core nearly as much as it was yesterday.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
656. DookiePBC
12:56 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Eugeniopr:


Cuba is not looking good.


Post 627...the green line looks more like a cruise itinerary than a computer model. Hit the islands, then Cuba, then Jamaica...
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
654. stormpetrol
12:55 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
meander abit and shoot to the ne. jmo
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
653. GeoffreyWPB
12:55 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
652. kmanhurricaneman
12:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
those models are wacky, dont put much faith in them, from day one they were all over the place granted for a decent model to really track system it has to be well defined TC. but still .
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
651. stillwaiting
12:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


There is hope next week so hang in there.
...i dont think so imo,have you checked the latest hpc 5 day accumulated. precip....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
649. Grothar
12:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
my question is and i know everyone is asking this where is paula headed, will it continue and go staight into belize or meander abit and shoot to the ne.


This should answer your question. I don't think they have any idea where the system will go. It is still too weak and the steering currents are also weak.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
648. stillwaiting
12:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think it will miss this trough but the second one that dips deep into TX is the one that bears watching as it would send by then Hurricane Paula to SW FL past 10 days. Long way out so we will monitor as wx patterns could change and this may not verify.
....imo 98l's path w/be simular to nicoles
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
646. kmanhurricaneman
12:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
what i do see is the further north she goes she is getting in the upperlevel stearing current which is now ene. jmo
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
644. stillwaiting
12:47 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting surfmom:
: (
seems the weather here last evening was far more severe then on the planet

rather disheartening to read first thing in the morning - very

Early morning at the barn - weather perfect for working and training the young horse I'm working with
No Rain here in SWFL is starting to become uncomfortably evident - pastures are drying up, need rain to get the reseeding going - hate when it's gets this dry -- fire threats don't mix well w/barns & horses
...UNLESS we ge a serious rainstorm inour area,we are going to be in biiiiig trouble w/fire season starting early and turning extreme imo
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
643. stormpetrol
12:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Good morning, I see 98L is still kicking, up to 60% now, Paula I suspect before the day is out! Its COC definitely going stay off shore Nic/Hon, it would basically have to go almost due west to hit them now IMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
642. kmanhurricaneman
12:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
my question is and i know everyone is asking this where is paula headed, will it continue and go staight into belize or meander abit and shoot to the ne.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
641. Grothar
12:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


No it's because they are uploading the new model runs and they should be out in 30 minutes.


Just saw that, that is why I removed them.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
639. PensacolaDoug
12:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
The only real negative I see (other than the obvious land interaction) is the convective blob just north east of it distorting its inflow. That piece moves off to the NE and "Paula to be" gets its chance for RI. That's assuming of course that it moves a little more N than W and puts a little distance between itself and the coast.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 660
637. Grothar
12:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
636. QMiami
12:38 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
635. kmanhurricaneman
12:38 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
633. kmanhurricaneman
12:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
RGB clearly showing banding and if you run the loop you will see that soon to be paula is tightening up.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
631. Neapolitan
12:36 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Nope, no renum. In fact, they've raised the pressure one millibar to 1007. That is, they say 98L is slightly weaker now than it was two hours ago. I'm no pro, but if that's a system on the decline, I wonder what a growing one looks like. :-)

AL, 98, 2010101112, , BEST, 0, 152N, 830W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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