Western Caribbean disturbance 98L still a threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (98L) in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has the potential to become a tropical depression at any time today or Monday as it moves northwestwards toward the Nicaragua/Honduras border at 5 - 10 mph. The disturbance has quite a bit of spin, but an organized surface circulation is not yet apparent on satellite images. Colombia's San Andres Island, to the southwest of 98L's center, is reporting northwest winds, suggesting that 98L may be close to having a closed surface circulation. An a href=http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_ima ges/cur_50km/zooms/WMBds20.pngASCAT pass from 10:41am EDT this morning confirms that 98L does not have a closed circulation, but it is almost there.Satellite imagery shows a relatively meager amount of intense thunderstorms associated with 98L, and pressures at nearby land stations are falling slowly or not at all. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that considerable dry air surrounds 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 98L on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 98L.

Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday and Monday, and to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Intermittent heavy rains will also affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Western Cuba over the next three days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status at any time, and NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across Cuba. None of computer models available as of 1pm EDT developed 98L into a tropical depression. I don't believe 98L will become a depression today, but expect that it will be one by Tuesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting poknsnok:
98l definitely full of spin probably back up to 80% soon
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
98l definitely full of spin probably back up to 80% soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
I'm not much of a blog cop but enough is enough. Take this low, no-class, crap wagon dispute to the back-room blogs where it was born and belongs. Those that enjoy a non-stop supply of this type of thing will find it there.

Show a little respect for Doc M and other members of this "COMMUNITY".

I would urge those that agree to silently cast your vote-using the tools admin has provided. That would include this post as well.

Rant over.



lol, sorry you hate my thoughts on tropical weather so much....lol

j/k

i know u are talking about the fight last night, i just had to make a dumb joke to laugh off my disheartened feelings in regards to what has been occurring with all that nonsense.
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Quoting surfmom:
: (
seems the weather here last evening was far more severe then on the planet

rather disheartening to read first thing in the morning - very

Early morning at the barn - weather perfect for working and training the young horse I'm working with
No Rain here in SWFL is starting to become uncomfortably evident - pastures are drying up, need rain to get the reseeding going - hate when it's gets this dry -- fire threats don't mix well w/barns & horses


Morning everyone.

Surfmom, I agree. Just finished reading to catch up. :( Always makes me wonder if it would be the same if people were face to face.

On a good note, they are giving us a 20% chance of rain today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
573. beell
I'm not much of a blog cop but enough is enough. Take this low, no-class, crap wagon dispute to the back-room blogs where it was born and belongs. Those that enjoy a non-stop supply of this type of thing will find it there.

Show a little respect for Doc M and other members of this "COMMUNITY".

I would urge those that agree to silently cast your vote-using the tools admin has provided. That would include this post as well.

Rant over.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
i am amazed at how far those westerlies have slung that moisture from central mexico into the upper atmosphere. this time yesterday everyone was showing water vapor loops with bright light tan air from the western tip of cuba clear throughout the GOM. Now there is still dry air but the westerlies have picked up on the moisture and extended it 400 miles across from the Texas GOM coastline to the Northern Florida GOM coastline.

I see a large trail of moisture extending north-northeast from the train of disorganized storms at 150-110w/10-20n. The water vapor loop shows the moisture content from the trail is considerably more moist than the trail was at this time yesterday. we may see the moisture level across the GOM rise quite a bit more compared to what it was at this time yesterday.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html

Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
: (
seems the weather here last evening was far more severe then on the planet

rather disheartening to read first thing in the morning - very

Early morning at the barn - weather perfect for working and training the young horse I'm working with
No Rain here in SWFL is starting to become uncomfortably evident - pastures are drying up, need rain to get the reseeding going - hate when it's gets this dry -- fire threats don't mix well w/barns & horses
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This says pressure is 1009.
Oops. My bad. I see the 1006 now. What is the 1009 ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
I put the COC at 14N 82W. Most of the convection looks to be NW of the center. IMO
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF update just out says 98L's center is at 14.2N / 82.0W. Winds are still at 25 knots, pressure is still at 1006mb.

AL, 98, 2010101106, , BEST, 0, 142N, 820W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
This says pressure is 1009.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Autistic2:


Orange not yellow? thanks, I appear to be color blind before the first cup of coffee. I wonder if it's wong to look her BEFORE I get the coffee going....Hmmmmmmmmm
LOL. My mother was color blind and I remember her holding things and asking me if it was orange or red.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looks like S. Fla/Fla straits/Bahamas.
It sounds like the Trough will dissipate in the central GOM on Thurs. Whats going to stear 98L after that?
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ATCF update just out says 98L's center is at 14.2N / 82.0W. Winds are still at 25 knots, pressure is still at 1006mb.

AL, 98, 2010101106, , BEST, 0, 142N, 820W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not yellow, it's orange and imo looking pretty good. I don't think it is going to go poof.


Orange not yellow? thanks, I appear to be color blind before the first cup of coffee. I wonder if it's wong to look her BEFORE I get the coffee going....Hmmmmmmmmm
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
last couple of frames show 98L appears to be turning in more of a cyclonic fashion. the link also shows the water vapor content for cross reference.

Link
98L looks healthy.
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Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Where is 98L forecasted to go after it drifts E in the NW Caribbean on Friday?


Looks like S. Fla/Fla straits/Bahamas.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
last couple of frames show 98L appears to be turning in more of a cyclonic fashion. the link also shows the water vapor content for cross reference.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N82W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 16N83W
BY EARLY TUE...TO 18N86W EARLY WED...AND THEN STALL NEAR 19N86W
BY WED AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW WILL
THEN DRIFT E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 19N78W AND WILL TRACK W WITH THE LOW THROUGH
WED. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W WILL PASS 75W TUE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF THE LOW THU AND FRI.
.............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NE WATERS WILL
MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF UNTIL DISSIPATING WED AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK S THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WED
AND DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU. BUILDING HIGH PRES
OVER THE WRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT CONTRASTED TO LOWER PRES OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THU AND FRI.

Goodmorning, Where is 98L forecasted to go after it drifts E in the NW Caribbean on Friday?
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Quoting Autistic2:
98l is still yellow, will it go poof from dry air? Can it become one of those subtropical storms from dry air.
Not yellow, it's orange and imo looking pretty good. I don't think it is going to go poof.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
98l is still yellow, will it go poof from dry air? Can it become one of those subtropical storms from dry air.
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556. IKE
Quoting clwstmchasr:
It's not forecast to make a USA landfall.

So we accept that and let our guards down. Been way too many storms that are forecasted to do one thing and they do the complete opposite.


How do people let their guards down? What specifically do people do that indicates that to you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yeah about 5 hours ago there was some huge disgusting fight about gay porn sites or something. i tried to not pay attention, alot of the time i was looking at maps and comparing layers of the atmosphere to see what may be happening so i was kind of paying attention. it got bad. no one except myself and a couple of others were talking about 98L/Otto. Most people were in a fight. I wish that stuff would end. This blog is for tropical weather, not for nasty fights and filthy thoughts :(
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ah, I came back tonight. One of the handles who I suspect, but don't know for sure, created the fake profiles on the sex sites with my pictures stolen from wunderground was just on. So we'll see.

I know that IHHEOTBS, angrypartsguy, tacomaman, unruly, hauntstown, and PSLFLCaneVet stole my pictures and used them to create fake profiles on several gay hookup sites and made sure to include the most alarming and disgusting fetishes you could think of, and some you couldn't, and made sure to click the HIV positive button on all the profiles.

That was why I left. But I don't like to let trolls push me around.

For those of you who may not be familiar with the blog that most of these handles hang out in, a look back through the hundreds of comments in this entry may prove enlightening.


That's disgusting. The trolls on here have gotten out of hand.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting IKE:


It's not forecast to make a USA landfall.

...............................................

Tampa,FL...LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
U/L TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO NO
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRIER COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH 50S OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. BUILDING HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS.

..............................................

Key West...FORECAST - FORECAST REASONING FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. THROUGH MID WEEK THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE
CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MERGE WITH A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST FORMING A DEEP TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRAWING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL COOLING AND MOISTENING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARDS A BIT FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD CREEP UP TO THE UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
SURFACE FLOW.

OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DRIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A MATURING MID LATITUDE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND A TRAILING HIGH CELL WILL FLUSH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE KEYS AREA AROUND LATE
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE ALREADY ADVERTISED DECREASING TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO
IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND.



yes true not trying to scare anyone i just want people to be safe. no need to panic now lots of time to watch and wait. i just don't feel comfortable when i see people write off the season as if it is over when sst's are orange all over the gulf and the season has been hyperactive near the end.

:) i just want everyone to be safe, thats all :)
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551. IKE
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


19n/86w is considerably to the west of where the cone originally pointed. Not trying to be a doomcaster, but everyone in Florida needs to keep an eye on this. If the dry air continues to collapse and the wind shear and upper level westerlies die down due to a thicker upper atmosphere 98L could very easily make a florida GOM landfall.


It's not forecast to make a USA landfall.

...............................................

Tampa,FL...LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
U/L TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO NO
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRIER COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH 50S OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. BUILDING HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS.

..............................................

Key West...FORECAST - FORECAST REASONING FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. THROUGH MID WEEK THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE
CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MERGE WITH A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST FORMING A DEEP TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRAWING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL COOLING AND MOISTENING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARDS A BIT FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD CREEP UP TO THE UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
SURFACE FLOW.

OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DRIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A MATURING MID LATITUDE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND A TRAILING HIGH CELL WILL FLUSH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE KEYS AREA AROUND LATE
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE ALREADY ADVERTISED DECREASING TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO
IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not that it's needed, but further prooof that last week's cold spell is, at least temporarily, a thing of the past, and that 2010's ridiculous post-spring heat continues to hold sway: there were 130 record high (or high minimum) temperatures either equaled or broken yesterday in the CONUS, while there were a sum total of three record lows. (Courtesy of HAMweather).

I can't speak for others, of course, but for me, the longer winter holds off, the happier I'll be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N82W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 16N83W
BY EARLY TUE...TO 18N86W EARLY WED...AND THEN STALL NEAR 19N86W
BY WED AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW WILL
THEN DRIFT E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 19N78W AND WILL TRACK W WITH THE LOW THROUGH
WED. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W WILL PASS 75W TUE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF THE LOW THU AND FRI.
.............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NE WATERS WILL
MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF UNTIL DISSIPATING WED AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK S THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WED
AND DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU. BUILDING HIGH PRES
OVER THE WRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT CONTRASTED TO LOWER PRES OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THU AND FRI.



19n/86w is considerably to the west of where the cone originally pointed. Not trying to be a doomcaster, but everyone in Florida needs to keep an eye on this. If the dry air continues to collapse and the wind shear and upper level westerlies die down due to a thicker upper atmosphere 98L could very easily make a florida GOM landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
548. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N82W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 16N83W
BY EARLY TUE...TO 18N86W EARLY WED...AND THEN STALL NEAR 19N86W
BY WED AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW WILL
THEN DRIFT E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 19N78W AND WILL TRACK W WITH THE LOW THROUGH
WED. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W WILL PASS 75W TUE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF THE LOW THU AND FRI.
.............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NE WATERS WILL
MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF UNTIL DISSIPATING WED AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK S THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WED
AND DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU. BUILDING HIGH PRES
OVER THE WRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT CONTRASTED TO LOWER PRES OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THU AND FRI.

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Quoting SunriseSteeda:

Thanks for all of the info SweetHomeBamaGOM!




your welcome.
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compared to yesterday the dry air has been reduced considerably in the GOM and to the north of 98L

here is the latest water vapor loop in color. i remember 1 1/2 days ago the entire GOM and northwestern Caribbean around Cuba were completely very light tan.

we may see in the next 24 hours a considerable amount of water vapor move into the GOM as the Pacific train of disturbances pushes moisture in. It appears to have already had a large effect and even wetter air is going to start streaming into Mexico across into the GOM in teh next 2 days. I wonder if this is going to kill the westerlies down with thickened air in the upper levels.

Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

thats not to say that there isn't a substantial amount of dry air to the north of 98L but she is fighting it off and the dry air pocket appears to be collapsing from the north and west as well.
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Thanks for all of the info SweetHomeBamaGOM!

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upper level water vapor appears to be filling the gulf in these past 4 frames. notice also that outflow from 98L is kicking moisture into central mexico and it is about to start looping back into the southwestern GOM. If the moisture can build up enough in the upper levels we may see the westerlies die down considerably.

Link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html



I don't see anything that is going to stop the pacific train of disturbances that are feeding moisture into the GOM from the west. the train doesn't look like it is being strained by pushing moisture around the mid level high in mexico and the influx of increased moisture into the western GOM is eminent. I wonder if this has anything to do with the shear buckling to the north, maybe the heavier air in the upper levels is killing the westerlies down??

Link

Link



http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html
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Quoting Abacosurf:
Sure is firing some cold tops. Looks to be close to the estimated center as well.

Not a complete write off at all IMO.




yep i agree. if it can get ts status she may want to move due north for the most part. this slide to the west could prove fatal for the fla coastline, but maybe not.

everyone should keep an eye on this in the next 48 hours to see if it can get to ts status. if so the mid level steering winds may redirect this due north for quite awhile.

also notice the large train of disorganized storms have now moved to 110w/10-20n. they are training in a considerable amount more than they were last night into the GOM. That moisture may be getting pushed higher into the upper layers due to a lack of precipitation and a lack of low cloud decks across mexico/GOM.

Link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Am I the only one who considers this thing a depression?


yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sure is firing some cold tops. Looks to be close to the estimated center as well.

Not a complete write off at all IMO.

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a lot of green now in the coc. we could be seeing this move north sooner than later at this point. it looks as if the shear reduction to the north is allowing this to make it's transition to td/ts status by allowing it to pull itself together.

all i can say is 98L is determined considering how much dry air she has eaten in the past 24 hours. the stationary movement to a large degree appears to be allowing her to send moisture north towards the dry air before she makes her move that way.


latest frame shows that it may be well on it's way to forming an eye. look at the banding in the middle of the coc towards the center. this appears to be sending up huge towers (the green) and starting to wrap tighter in it's core.

Link


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest Blog update on 98L, Portlight and N TX Weather:Link




yes i agree. the past 2 hours have shown huge convection immediately around the eye. also the divergence to the north appears to be buckling in the middle and the heavier winds in the shear tendency appear to be dying down. if the shear tendency drops to 5 overall to the north i wonder if this is going to make its move north. she sure has kicked a bunch of energy and moisture to the north which may make the environment more conducive for development if and when the shear dies down.
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Latest Blog update on 98L, Portlight and N TX Weather:Link
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last three frames show a ton of convection blowing up near the center of 98L. this may correlate to the possibility that shear to the north is starting to give way.

Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html



also she has kicked a bunch of moisture way north of her (almost to far western cuba)in the past 24 hours

Link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html


she may be able to fight off the dry air before she ever gets closer to cuba/florida.

i think they said this is moving 5-10 mph but through the frames of 98L although convection seems to be blowing up around the center i don't really see this moving very much. the loop appears to be deceiving with all of the convection flare up but if you look close maybe you can see that too.
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Hey,

SSIGA, glad to see u didn't let the little #&@*s run u off... I find that the kind of pple who would do the stuff u talked about are the biggest whiners and cryers of "victimization" when they feel they're being done wrong....

I'm not surprised to see 98L looking healthy.... but I'd have to look closer to see if it looks any better circulation wise.... and since I only slipped in due to an early morning bathroom break, my eyes are prolly still too crossed to see straight anyhow... lol

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I just stayed with the ECMWF all season and it was golden, other models not needed. Still, continued with hurricane prep, the 3 patio doors now have aluminum accordion shutters ($3700), and we now have 2 more hurricane standard windows (guaranteed for penetration to 230 mph),

Only 3 more windows to go-of course they are all non-standard sizes which makes them cost a ton. Since I had already done the usual stuff, top of the line roof and doors, all I need is a gen and maybe a freezer. We are at 41 feet and I don't see storm surge that high. Oh ya, 11 tarps and 2000 feet nylon line just in case altho the builder didn't trust trusses and so we have a double roof, one sheath inside the other one with the extra trusses, etc.

The thing is, we may never get another hurricane but then again we might, can't take the chance,

And the folks on this blog would do to remember that, one can come out of nowhere because we don't really understand that fine point of distinction between just a storm and a Cat 3 up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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