Western Caribbean disturbance 98L still a threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

An area of disturbed weather (98L) in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has the potential to become a tropical depression at any time today or Monday as it moves northwestwards toward the Nicaragua/Honduras border at 5 - 10 mph. The disturbance has quite a bit of spin, but an organized surface circulation is not yet apparent on satellite images. Colombia's San Andres Island, to the southwest of 98L's center, is reporting northwest winds, suggesting that 98L may be close to having a closed surface circulation. An a href=http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_ima ges/cur_50km/zooms/WMBds20.pngASCAT pass from 10:41am EDT this morning confirms that 98L does not have a closed circulation, but it is almost there.Satellite imagery shows a relatively meager amount of intense thunderstorms associated with 98L, and pressures at nearby land stations are falling slowly or not at all. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that considerable dry air surrounds 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 98L on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 98L.

Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday and Monday, and to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Intermittent heavy rains will also affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Western Cuba over the next three days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status at any time, and NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across Cuba. None of computer models available as of 1pm EDT developed 98L into a tropical depression. I don't believe 98L will become a depression today, but expect that it will be one by Tuesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 631 - 581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Nope, no renum. In fact, they've raised the pressure one millibar to 1007. That is, they say 98L is slightly weaker now than it was two hours ago. I'm no pro, but if that's a system on the decline, I wonder what a growing one looks like. :-)

AL, 98, 2010101112, , BEST, 0, 152N, 830W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
???


Something wrong with the images, they will not post the models. Here is the link:

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
???
yeah ?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Eugeniopr:


Cuba is not looking good.
???
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423


Cuba is not looking good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATCF updated seconds ago and says it's still--inexplicably--just a 25-knot, 1007mb low. Hmmm...

AL, 98, 2010101112, , BEST, 0, 152N, 830W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

...though, to be fair, they may just be preparing the file for a possible renum. Stand by just in case...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wait for 30 minutes
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
623. 7544
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm thinking straight to "paula"
.


agree also notice the cdo is expanding this hour looks like it just may shoot right to paula after 2 pm today and moving very slow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
In my own lame opinion, 98L is already a depression if not a TC. The NHC doesn't control the weather, they just have the job of declaring and making it official. The cloud-shots speak for themselves. Also a pretty decent chance that it may miss the connection with the trough and meander for a few days. Intersting scenario to be sure!


I think it will miss this trough but the second one that dips deep into TX is the one that bears watching as it would send by then Hurricane Paula to SW FL past 10 days. Long way out so we will monitor as wx patterns could change and this may not verify.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm thinking straight to "paula".
I'm thinking you may be right.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
In my own lame opinion, 98L is already a depression if not a TC. The NHC doesn't control the weather, they just have the job of declaring and making it official. The cloud-shots speak for themselves. Also a pretty decent chance that it may miss the connection with the trough and meander for a few days. Intersting scenario to be sure!


I dunno. It looks like just a disorganized 60% blob to me... :-\

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
plane could find a td latter on today imo and paula will be named shortly after


I'm thinking straight to "paula".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In my own lame opinion, 98L is already a depression if not a TC. The NHC doesn't control the weather, they just have the job of declaring and making it official. The cloud-shots speak for themselves. Also a pretty decent chance that it may miss the connection with the trough and meander for a few days. Intersting scenario to be sure!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
stormwatcher you got it the wrong way TWO high and the TWD has medium

I still think the COC is near 15.2N 82.8W or at 16.0N 83.3W or at 16.5N 83.0# or at 15.8N 83.5W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12377
Quoting 7544:
plane could find a td latter on today imo and paula will be named shortly after
...i actually agree w/what joe b said yesterday,its probably been a td, the nhc doesnt want to look dum as 2 days ago thr gave a 10% chance of tc,then uo to 60% since sat night,soo when recon goes in today theyll upgrade to td or ts,because it'll have been 36-48 hrs since they up'd it to 50-60%.....a bunch of political bs this year,i wouldnt discount the idea we're trying to modify wx as well jmo
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
The KEYS would feel hurricane force conditions with this track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
S FL and the KEYS better watchout as the models are back on for a potential scare. The GFDL has a strong hurricane just south of FL.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest98l.2010101100_nest3.png
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
off for today folks i will be back on about 5 or so i have some errands i have to run today i bet when i return we have a TD on our hands...oh and by the way the models are starting to cluster and are keeping the system what ever it may be just off shore c america and mexico right now
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2218
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah, I agree. Her close proximity to the coast of Nicaragua & Honduras would be her biggest detriment.


i also think that the reason why the models show no us landfall yet is look how close the little dots are together in the model i think that represents a day each dot does and only 1 model GFDL shows a 90 mph hurricane hitting the florida keys i think the system will become strong but it will take some time because it is so close to land
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2218
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Thanks Cat5. BTW, I dislike your Avatar..LOL
Yeah...I get that alot. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It turns out those shear maps I posted were a little out-dated...as they have not appeared to have updated.

Either way, if the anticyclone did in fact sit on top of it, it would be more beneficial to the system since it would not succumb to the anti-cyclone's shear from any or either direction.


Thanks Cat5. BTW, I dislike your Avatar..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
607. 7544
plane could find a td latter on today imo and paula will be named shortly after
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:
Thanks Bama. Apparently I was looking at an old map that was posted. Thanks for the great info.


your welcome :)

i have many tropical links bookmarked. if you need any just ask i will post them. watching storms is very interesting. it is like a big jenga game. so many levels, so many variables, it is very enjoyable to ponder :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
605. 7544
Quoting Jeff9641:


Maybe a cat. 2


thanks looks like dejevue of another wilma and so fla in the bulls eye only 7 days out to start thinking and be on the look out

lets see what levi has to say on this latter on today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wuz up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC contradicting itself again.

TWD THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TWO
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Thanks Bama. Apparently I was looking at an old map that was posted. Thanks for the great info.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Visually, that would appear to be what's happened, with some still coming in from the southeast, but this isn't hindering her much. Land proximity is her biggest problem right now, but that will diminish with both time and daytime heating of the jungles down there, not to mention an eventual feed from the Eastern Pacific, as we have seen so often this season.
Yeah, I agree. Her close proximity to the coast of Nicaragua & Honduras would be her biggest detriment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
It's not forecast to make a USA landfall.

So we accept that and let our guards down. Been way too many storms that are forecasted to do one thing and they do the complete opposite.


i see a high chance of a us landfall
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2218



Vorticity becoming less elongated and more concentrated.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It turns out those shear maps I posted were a little out-dated...as they have not appeared to have updated.

Either way, if the anticyclone did in fact sit on top of it, it would be more beneficial to the system since it would not succumb to the anti-cyclone's shear from any or either direction.
Visually, that would appear to be what's happened, with some still coming in from the southeast, but this isn't hindering her much. Land proximity is her biggest problem right now, but that will diminish with both time and daytime heating of the jungles down there, not to mention an eventual feed from the Eastern Pacific, as we have seen so often this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



yes true not trying to scare anyone i just want people to be safe. no need to panic now lots of time to watch and wait. i just don't feel comfortable when i see people write off the season as if it is over when sst's are orange all over the gulf and the season has been hyperactive near the end.

:) i just want everyone to be safe, thats all :)


I was on the phone with the KEY WEST Office this morning and they said Long Range MODIFICATIONS ARE LIKELY due to Paula down the road. They will not commit YET until the models become more consistant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


What if the anticyclone sets up over top of it? Will the shear still have a big effect on it? BTW....I am clueless when it comes to weather.

It turns out those shear maps I posted were a little out-dated...as they have not appeared to have updated.

Either way, if the anticyclone did in fact sit on top of it, it would be more beneficial to the system since it would not succumb to the anti-cyclone's shear from any or either direction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
It's not forecast to make a USA landfall.

So we accept that and let our guards down. Been way too many storms that are forecasted to do one thing and they do the complete opposite.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
It's not forecast to make a USA landfall.

So we accept that and let our guards down. Been way too many storms that are forecasted to do one thing and they do the complete opposite.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
It's not forecast to make a USA landfall.

So we accept that and let our guards down. Been way too many storms that are forecasted to do one thing and they do the complete opposite.


Let our gaurds down? Hmmm, just how does one do that? Lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:


ouch how strong is that jeff ?


Maybe a cat. 2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
593. 7544
Quoting Jeff9641:
If this run pans out then OUCH! Looks like Paula is going to sit for awhile before getting the kick toward SW FL or the Bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp1_324.shtml


ouch how strong is that jeff ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not too much shear over 98 now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this run pans out then OUCH! Looks like Paula is going to sit for awhile before getting the kick toward SW FL or the Bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp1_324.shtml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


What if the anticyclone sets up over top of it? Will the shear still have a big effect on it? BTW....I am clueless when it comes to weather.


what map are you looking at showing 60 kts over 98L? here are the links to the latest shear maps from nhc. maybe they can help you figure out what you need to know :)


Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html


shear tendency--

a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html"
target="_blank">Link


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html


i dont see 60kts anywhere close to 98L but maybe i am missing something? unless i am wrong it looks to me that the shear to the north is starting to fall apart. it is splitting in the middle in the divergent map and the 20kts to the north have collapsed into the 10kts surrounding where it used to be. it kind of looks like the shear is falling. ever since the shear has began to back off to the north 98L has been creating quick big convection around her core. I think this could develop fast (not that it will or it wont, just that it could) because of the lack of shear and the fact that the dry air across the GOM is collapsing compared to 24 hrs ago.

Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

dont get me wrong there is still a considerable amount of dry air to the north of 98L, but she has kicked out lower and mid level moisture way north of her now-forming COC, and the pacific storm has increased moisture levels considerably across the GOM compared to what the water vapor loop looked like yesterday.

the pacific train of disturbances has increased in both size, activity, and outflow of moisture into the upper levels through Mexico into the GOM. Here is a link to a map that shows the influx of moisture from the train of disturbances from 110w-150w/10-20n. The train disturbances could be preparing to sling a lot of moisture across Mexico into the GOM. I don't currently see anything that will hold up this stream of moisture into the GOM.

Link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html


hope that helps you :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
588. IKE
Caribbean Development Still Possible
Oct 11, 2010 4:04 AM


Otto is a post tropical storm and is racing across the central Atlantic, north of the Azores. Otto will slow down and begin to shift southward to the east of the Azores by midweek. It may get close enough to the islands to produce rain and tropical storm-force winds on Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Closer to home we continue to watch an area of low pressure about 50 miles east of northern Nicaragua. It continues to spin up showers and thunderstorms as it tracks slowly to the west-northwest. Upper-level conditions are favorable for strengthening and it may become a tropical depression over the the next 12-24 hours. Models generally take this feature to the west-northwest or northwest to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday into Wednesday and there is some chance of it becoming Tropical Storm Paula by then, if it doesn't interact too much with land. Later this week, strong upper-level west-southwest winds across the Gulf of Mexico should weaken this feature and steer what is left of it toward Cuba. As with several of these types of developments this season, heavy flooding rain will affect parts of Central America over the next couple of days, especially northern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere, there are only a couple of weak tropical waves to track over the open Atlantic, and none have any realistic chance of developing further over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Justin Povick
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the COC is at 15.5N 82.5W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12377
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think that is yesterdays. I haven't seen that update since 12Z on 10/10/10

You know, good catch. I do see the date at the bottom now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
The upper-level map (12:00Z) also depicts approximately 25-30 kts of shear currently over 98L

Click to Enlarge



What if the anticyclone sets up over top of it? Will the shear still have a big effect on it? BTW....I am clueless when it comes to weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
The upper-level map (12:00Z) also depicts approximately 25-30 kts of shear currently over 98L

Click to Enlarge

I think that is yesterdays. I haven't seen that update since 12Z on 10/10/10
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
582. beell
Good Morning, SweetHomeBamaGOM,

The weather laughs and moves on!

From Houston-this morning:
69° and clear. With a 30% chance of POP's

...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE LEVELS UP ENOUGH WHERE WE ACTUALLY HAVE A
FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR - SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T SEEN FOR
WEEKS...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16865
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423

Viewing: 631 - 581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
44 °F
Overcast