Florida gets soaked; Stan a major disaster in Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:55 PM GMT on October 04, 2005

Tropical disturbance approaching Florida
The leading portion of the tropical disturbance over the central Bahama Islands has moved ashore in Central Florida today, bringing rains of up to three inches and wind gusts of 40 mph along the coast. Although the disturbance is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, the impact on Florida will be similar to that of a tropical depression--sustained winds of 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph along the coast, along with 3 - 6 inches of rain and large battering waves. The disturbance currently has a weak surface circulation center just south of Andros Island. The shear over the storm is high, 10 - 20 knots, and development into a tropical depression is not possible until Wednesday or Thursday, when the shear may drop below 10 knots. However, the disturbance will be near or over the Florida Peninsula when that happens, limiting the chances for development. I believe that this system will not develop into a tropical depression at all. Instead, the disturbance will interact with an upper-level low pressure system and cold front on Thursday, and become a large--and very wet--ordinary low pressure system. This low will pump copious amounts of tropical moisture into Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next three days. By Thursday, a cold front swings onto the East Coast, and several areas of low pressure--all non-tropical--are expected to develop along the front Thursday through Saturday and move northeast, giving the entire East Coast drenching tropical rains.

Figure 1.Storm total rainfall from the Melbourne radar.

I speculated about the possibility yesterday of a tropical storm forming near the Carolinas and moving northwards along the coast. This is no longer expected, due to the high wind shear over the region.

Figure 1. BAMM and GFDL model forecast tracks of Bahamas tropical disturbance. The intensity forecast numbers from the SHIPS model are far too high; this system will be lucky to develop into a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Stan
Stan stormed ashore on the coast of Mexico this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, and is expected to finally dissipate Wednesday morning over the Mexican mountains. The onshore winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean into the center of Stan have caused a major disaster in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico. Guatemala is reporting four dead and many communities cut off by rising rivers, and 38 have been killed in El Salvador by mud slides triggered by heavy rains. The death toll will undoubtedly rise much higher. Since Stan's remains are going nowhere fast, as much as 20 inches of rain could fall over the next few days over the mountainous regions of these countries.

Stan's remains may re-organize and form of a new tropical storm over the Pacific, which could move northwest and threaten Baja later in the week. The NOGAPS and GFDL models predict that Stan's remains will linger over the Gulf of Mexico long enough to result in the formation of a new tropical storm there by the weekend. All this will depend on Stan's track; it is very unlikely we would get a new storm in both ocean basins.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Clouds from the tropical disturbance over the Bahamas extend southeastward to Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico bears watching, as wind shear values here are 5 - 10 knots, the lowest of anywhere in this disturbance.

The region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is quiet.

Jeff Masters

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92. Weathermandan
12:26 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
any thoughts on winds? strong nor'easters can have winds of 60 mph lol
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91. CoconutCreekFLA
8:23 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
Buhdog: The sun-sentinel had a report on that as well - on the front page. They said that the NHC won't know for sure until they finish analzying the storm data.

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90. leftyy420
12:25 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
it will be a nor'easter. it will be riding the front
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
89. weatherguy03
12:24 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Went down to the beach earlier today, but it wasnt that bad yet..Normal Noreaster erosion...by November our beach will be gone again unfortunately...
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88. leftyy420
12:22 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
weather expect conditions like that of a stron nor'easter. thats what it will be. u know that heavy preci will be closer to the low so track will determine exact mosture but expect 3-6 in the areas close to the low and squally weather at the coast with plenty of errosion
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
87. ejstrick
12:23 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Weatherguy, any erosion?
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86. viget
12:21 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Er I would also like to know about S. New England. Gonna be in Boston this weekend for a wedding. I see that GFS has some sort of low heading that way, is this a subtropical storm, or just a Nor'Easter?
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85. weatherguy03
12:19 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
hey St Simons I am here in St.Aug..My electricity keeps getting knocked off..LOL..And usually it doesnt, but alot of wind tonite with these squalls, worse then Ophelia..Earlier today I saw a few small trees down as we got battered by a few squalls, as i was coming home from work..LOL..
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84. Weathermandan
12:19 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
anyone have any thoughts on effects from this whole storm setup on the southern New England area?

I'm thinking up to 3" of rain, large waves (8'+?), and gale force winds possible...maybe some coastal flooding in spots.
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83. Buhdog
12:18 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
did you hear they think katrina came on with 115 mph?

no way this is possible....

on drudge report

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81. primez
12:05 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Okay. It looks like stan is about to enter the Eastern Pacific.
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80. leftyy420
12:13 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
i see no evidence of a surface circulation
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
79. Hecker
12:11 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Stan is not far from making it to the Pacific--Pacific feeder bands are already setting up. I think we may have an isthmus-crossermin the making.
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78. notwithoutmyprosac
12:04 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
OK StSimonsIslandGAGuy,

I resent that, I'm a redneck and I don't have any gaps in my smile!

Crowns are a wonderful thing :)
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77. Hecker
12:00 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
The Miami Nexrad loop suggests a surface circulation now.
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76. Buhdog
11:45 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
for sure shear seems to be lightning up...with night time flare up (if this is tropical I mean) could we be seeing a stronger system than anticipated? Also winds are more northerly than easterly.(Cape Coral)..which would suggest stronger pressure from a more southern point right?
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75. Weathermandan
11:54 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
I live on LI...GFS says 4 inches of rain for me late this week/early this weekend from whatever happens with that storm in the Bahamas. my only question is...tropical, subtropical, or non-tropical? either way...lots of rain and gusty winds
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74. ejstrick
11:49 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Pretty wild weatherman
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73. Weathermandan
11:45 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
hey...has anyone seen the latest run of the GFS?


wild stuff even after this storm...(notice the four lows spiraling around the western Atlantic in about 6 days)
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72. stormydee
11:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
oh, knock knock company...out for a bit....or till tomorrow...see ya!
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71. ejstrick
11:43 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
You can kiss the beaches replenishment from last years' hurricanes goodbye with this weeks' events. Weatherguy, if you are on, comment on the erosion going on at St. Augustine Beach presently please.
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70. ejstrick
11:41 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
No I'm in Ortega.
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69. JupiterFL
11:38 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
We had a bad storm about an hour ago. Looks like it's only going to get worse for the next few days though. The good thing is that no shutters are needed for this one.
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68. tornadoty
11:38 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
This thing looks like a TD/TS already. I think a LLC is showing up on the satellite.
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67. stormydee
11:37 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
oh hi aqua, missed that one... :-)
Bills - u figure it out, Im just observing what I think I see and wondering what u see.
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66. aquak9
7:36 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
hi ej, you're off of kernan, right?
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65. billsfaninsofla
7:33 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
Stormydee..what did you see? I couldn't get it....thanks
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64. stormydee
11:34 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
StSimons, this thing is affecting the whole s/e coast. :-)
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62. ejstrick
11:33 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Was up Aquak...getting hammered presently?
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61. stormydee
11:30 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Im convinced Jeff's disturbance that crossed central FL was what I would consider from witnessing it today, a lightweight rainband...I mean the i.r. tells the story...UNLESS that is another little low that is pushing off the west coast of FL now...hmm, what do you think? Link
Let me know...
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60. billsfaninsofla
7:23 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
cgables...well, I figured if anyone, perhaps Bryan would listen, he was the only one to call Andrew, I clearly remember Don Noe to tell everyone to have a great weekend, he was going fishing and IF, big IF there is anything to worry about it won't be until at least Wednesday... um, right... were you in Coral Gables when Andrew hit?
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58. aquak9
7:28 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
Hi stormydee...good to see you on this evening...yes it's been a mess all day, and no one seems to have a good grasp on this situation, pouring on me right now, I can hear the wind
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56. stormydee
11:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Yes SJ...and why is it not a t.d. or t.s.? I cannot figure it out...maybe 11PM? But Jeff said...
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55. IKE
11:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Yo bud
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54. stormydee
11:22 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
my winds are sustained around 21mph...I have all these warnings:
Coastal Hazard Message
Flood Watch
Hazardous Weather Outlook
High Surf Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory

Will I sleep tonight?
Do I need to put the plywood up?
Its been gusty all day...poor beaches...
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53. StormJunkie
11:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Everyone know that floater 2 is over the Bahama blob?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17143
52. StormJunkie
11:22 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
So does anyone else think it looks like the shear is reducing over the Bahama blob?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17143
51. 8888888889gg
11:15 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
i do not think the NHC no what they are doing most of the time like when we had hurricane Rita why did they have the winds at 120mph with a 930mb? and i think it made land fall as cat 4 with winds of 140mph or 150mph some where around there a cat 3 hurricane can not have a 930mb with winds up to 120mph no way so any way i hop the NHC no what they are doing this time around with this storm any one no this ? get back to on it thank you
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50. stormydee
11:20 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Link Well, I see something...
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49. aquak9
7:21 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
Lefty was still awake at 6am this morning...he'll be on before midnite
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48. 8888888889gg
11:06 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
any one like to tell me why they had not call this a TS yet and what is up with the NHC today?
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47. IKE
11:04 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Pressure at Key West down to 29.70. Question to NHC...what is this blob?
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46. hurricane79
10:50 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
If this disturbance were to be classified a tropical system, it should become Tammy without going through the Tropical depression process. There are areas out there with winds at tropical storm force already. (Although it could be pressure gradient.)
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45. cgableshurrycanegal
6:47 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
nash - lefty was in earlier
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44. cgableshurrycanegal
6:42 PM EDT on October 04, 2005
billsfan, you're kidding! Well, wait a minute, you ARE talking BRYAN here, THE Andrew man... oh well... that's usually the last channel I check... ::G:: don't know why...
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43. stormydee
10:41 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Last Update on Oct 4, 5:57 pm EDT
Wind Speed: E 17 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.88"

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42. iyou
10:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Thanks crab!
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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