Florida gets soaked; Stan a major disaster in Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:55 PM GMT on October 04, 2005

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Tropical disturbance approaching Florida
The leading portion of the tropical disturbance over the central Bahama Islands has moved ashore in Central Florida today, bringing rains of up to three inches and wind gusts of 40 mph along the coast. Although the disturbance is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, the impact on Florida will be similar to that of a tropical depression--sustained winds of 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph along the coast, along with 3 - 6 inches of rain and large battering waves. The disturbance currently has a weak surface circulation center just south of Andros Island. The shear over the storm is high, 10 - 20 knots, and development into a tropical depression is not possible until Wednesday or Thursday, when the shear may drop below 10 knots. However, the disturbance will be near or over the Florida Peninsula when that happens, limiting the chances for development. I believe that this system will not develop into a tropical depression at all. Instead, the disturbance will interact with an upper-level low pressure system and cold front on Thursday, and become a large--and very wet--ordinary low pressure system. This low will pump copious amounts of tropical moisture into Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next three days. By Thursday, a cold front swings onto the East Coast, and several areas of low pressure--all non-tropical--are expected to develop along the front Thursday through Saturday and move northeast, giving the entire East Coast drenching tropical rains.


Figure 1.Storm total rainfall from the Melbourne radar.

I speculated about the possibility yesterday of a tropical storm forming near the Carolinas and moving northwards along the coast. This is no longer expected, due to the high wind shear over the region.


Figure 1. BAMM and GFDL model forecast tracks of Bahamas tropical disturbance. The intensity forecast numbers from the SHIPS model are far too high; this system will be lucky to develop into a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Stan
Stan stormed ashore on the coast of Mexico this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, and is expected to finally dissipate Wednesday morning over the Mexican mountains. The onshore winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean into the center of Stan have caused a major disaster in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico. Guatemala is reporting four dead and many communities cut off by rising rivers, and 38 have been killed in El Salvador by mud slides triggered by heavy rains. The death toll will undoubtedly rise much higher. Since Stan's remains are going nowhere fast, as much as 20 inches of rain could fall over the next few days over the mountainous regions of these countries.

Stan's remains may re-organize and form of a new tropical storm over the Pacific, which could move northwest and threaten Baja later in the week. The NOGAPS and GFDL models predict that Stan's remains will linger over the Gulf of Mexico long enough to result in the formation of a new tropical storm there by the weekend. All this will depend on Stan's track; it is very unlikely we would get a new storm in both ocean basins.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Clouds from the tropical disturbance over the Bahamas extend southeastward to Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico bears watching, as wind shear values here are 5 - 10 knots, the lowest of anywhere in this disturbance.

The region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is quiet.

Jeff Masters

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442. hurricanechaser
10:16 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
storm junkie..we were right when we noticed the center on melbournes radar earlier moving off in a nw direction very close to the coast.
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441. StormJunkie
9:51 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Hard to tell which way this llc is moving. At first I thought it was NW or NNW, but may be closer to WNW. Very hard to tell since it has formed so recently.

Goodnight all.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
440. StormJunkie
9:44 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Robb, what do you make of the movement and the center in relation to the models? N fla to Ga landfall?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
439. StormJunkie
9:39 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
WE HAVE A TROPICAL DEPRESION!!!

Per NHC 5:30am Outlook.

Centered just off of Central FLA. There is an area of convection trying to develop around this llc!. Appears to be moving either NW or N of NW.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
438. RobbTC
5:40 AM EDT on October 05, 2005
TD21 is finally here

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA... WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING
FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORMING... AND ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED SHORTLY WITH
A SPECIAL ADVISORY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
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437. StormJunkie
9:11 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
See what you are saying chaser. Radar sure does look like some kind of center will come in near Melbourne. Wonder if that center could move across Florida and we still see a redevelop under the deep convection. Very complex area.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
436. hurricanechaser
9:03 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
ok one last post..lol...latest obs show lowest pressure at ft. pierce and falling with due west wind and melbournes falling as well so center seems to be betwen these two locations.
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435. hurricanechaser
8:55 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
last post before i go get something to eat..latest IR suggests the circulation is displaced from the deep convection to its east and north and moving nw while convection is being sheared to the north and east... this would sugggest a landfall in Fl. in contrast to my original thoughts. once again..if centers reforms under the deep convection to its east and north then landfall much farther up the coast to my original projecton.forecasting 6 hour advisories difficult enough than minute by minute with a disorganized surface low.
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434. mybahamas
4:52 AM EDT on October 05, 2005
Does it look like the heavy rains from Stan could be heading back north to affect Florida and us in The Bahamas?
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433. hurricanechaser
8:51 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
be back soon..
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432. hurricanechaser
8:50 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
definately north and west og grand bahama island..
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431. hurricanechaser
8:48 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
the melbourne radat looks interesting suggesting center is moving nw and closer to coast well north of grand bahama...if its not sleep dep[rivation instead.
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430. ProgressivePulse
8:47 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Would have to say though that that is one hell of a distance to be having an impact.
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429. ProgressivePulse
8:42 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
You look at the WV loops, I see interaction from Stan causing the winds south south west, would support the push North by Bahama blob.
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428. mybahamas
4:43 AM EDT on October 05, 2005
Looks like the "remnants" of Stan could be heading towards South Florida and The Bahamas ?
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427. StormJunkie
8:43 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
So Chaser you know put the center to the W of GBI?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
426. hurricanechaser
8:42 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
JUST NOTICED FT. PIERCE HAS WSW WINDS SO CLOSING IN ON MELBOURNES LATITUDE.
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425. StormJunkie
8:40 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
The winds are coming from the SSW PP and that would lead me to think the center is to the NW or NNW of you.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
424. hurricanechaser
8:36 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Before I go get somethhing to eat..I checkedout latest surface observations and miami radar and I now believe center is still south of melbourne probably closer to ft. pierce and melbourne as pressures keep falling in melbourne with ene wind and miami and west palm with southerly winds from varying directions. the radar out of miami shows the center better defined so its easier to estimate centers location and it looks like a nw motion but closer to coast thaN i ORGINALLY THOUGHT.
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423. ProgressivePulse
8:33 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
West Palm Beach

Humidity: 96%
Wind: SSW 3 <----- can someone explain that??????
Barometer: 29.7"
Dewpoint: 76F
Heat Index: 78F
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422. StormJunkie
8:32 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Night PP.

That did not sound good.lmao.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
421. StormJunkie
8:30 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Night Buff.

Wait and see Chaser.lol.

What do you make of that area breaking off to the NE of the system?

Also does it look like some real small bands are trying to beat the shear on the SW side of the storm?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
420. mybahamas
4:24 AM EDT on October 05, 2005
Morning from Nassau, The Bahamas :)
I am travelling today to Abaco and Grand Bahama with the world championship tracka nd field team here. Our 400m lady won the gold in Helsinki, while our men won the silver in the relays. I wish we would go east to Eleuthera first, which is already free of most storms; but politicians don't apparently watch TWC :)
Anyways, I'll be seeing firsthand the weather in Abaco and GBI in a little while. Hope my camera doesn't get wet ;-)
Have a great day :)
mybahamas
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419. ProgressivePulse
8:27 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Any way you look at it I think tomorrow will be a big suprise for all. Have a good night.
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418. hurricanechaser
8:28 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
hey guys..ill brb..i gotta get something to eat.. if I miss you when I return..its been great talking with all of you.
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417. hurricanechaser
8:27 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
have a goodnight weatherbuff.
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416. StormJunkie
8:27 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
pints are good too chaser.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
415. weatherbuff64
8:23 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Well im headin to bed....will catch y'all tomorrow night
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414. hurricanechaser
8:26 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
meant point rather than "pint"..lol
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413. StormJunkie
8:24 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
I feel ya chaser. That is why my posts alwasy say IMO or my take or just a geuss. lol:)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
412. hurricanechaser
8:24 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
If i had to predict the most likely landfall pints right now..Id say anywhere from Fl./Ga. line to Charleston, sc.
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411. ProgressivePulse
8:23 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Imagine that storm, pull from the pacific. Woulden't put it past this year.
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410. hurricanechaser
8:19 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
very good point Storm...I couldn't agree more...although if the center reorganizes farther west once the shear relaxes then the models would be right..thats why predicting a strengthening lows path is highly uncertain at best...but I still lean toward our expectations at this time. But, I always reserve the right to change my mind..lol :)
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409. weatherbuff64
8:21 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
could be...all in all it looks like lots of rain comin
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408. StormJunkie
8:20 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Yea chaser, ya'll uusally do steal our thunder. So I would not discount NC yet, but I think a mid GA to S SC is most likely. Just my geuss.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
407. StormJunkie
8:19 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
That is only a small piece of Stan PP, maybe his package trying to screw us. You can see the llc is about to emerge in the pacific.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
406. hurricanechaser
8:16 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
All in all..I am confident of a more northerly motion which I believe is already taking place and thus a landfall no farther south that ne fla. and most likely farther north..how far..too early to tell..maybe either carolina including nc.
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405. StormJunkie
8:17 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Going to be real intresting how this thing effect us Buff. Could we see a true tropical system make landfall between Sav and Beaufort?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
404. ProgressivePulse
8:12 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Never trust the Canadians lol, "Stan the Man" is making his path back to the US, apparantly got lost. Trying to make a statement for the men this year, lol.
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403. weatherbuff64
8:15 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Im just the county next to you....Colleton....I'm in Walterboro
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402. StormJunkie
8:13 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
The models all seem to have intiated way to far S and W if what we are thinking is correct chaser. The longer this thing stays over water the more likely it develops. Also should be over the Gulf Stream if it continues that NW motion?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
401. hurricanechaser
8:06 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
hey stormjunkie..I havent looked at the latst visible since the eclipse nor the latest long range radar out of Miami so I needed to check that out before I answered your question..
Looking at both,..it appears the short range motion has certainly been nw not west... which would explain a more northerly motion verifying with the falling presures farther up the coast. Thus I definately place the ill-defined center north of grand bahama island moving nw..alot will depend on the storms increaded development. Its very difficult to predict a developing waves projected track because many times the center will be relocated under a big flare up of deep convection in the formative stages which will have huge consequences on its future track.. But at the current time..these are my best perceptions.
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400. StormJunkie
8:11 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Where are you Buff? I am also one of those counties.

Chas.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
399. StormJunkie
8:08 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
PP, I think due ot the weakness of the system the shear has pushed the center E. It will make landfall, whre is the question. This ULL low in the gulf has something to do with it also, but I am not clear. I think once the system gets N of the shear we will see a NW movement. N FL to SC landfall. Again this is all speculation on my part, but that is my take. I think the Canadian has the best bead on this system. That statement in itself is crazy, but a more northerly course seems most logical to me.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
398. weatherbuff64
8:07 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
yep i just got that on my weatherbug about the flood watch...i am one of the counties
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397. ProgressivePulse
8:02 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Amature observance here but man, that push from the west how will this system ever reach land?? Models keep shifting north, again I go back to the bringing out the bathing suits in south florida tomorrow, obviously an embelishment, but far cry from what is was this morning.
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396. StormJunkie
8:03 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
That is what I thought Chaser. Always second geuss myself on that. Hence my post about the center being N of WPB.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
395. StormJunkie
7:59 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Wow. A flood watch has just been issued for most of SE SC and GA through THURSDAY. First time I have seen that. 48hr flood watch.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
394. hurricanechaser
7:58 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Stormjunkie,
suface winds are recorded from the direction in which they are coming from.
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393. StormJunkie
7:56 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
So that being said Chaser, you put the center of circ just N of the E end of GBI or just N of GBI? And where do you see this thing going? What is your pressure and what has the trend been the last 24?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
392. hurricanechaser
7:56 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
that certainly explains the wsw wind you guys are referring to with the low definately north of that location..not wind shear.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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