Florida gets soaked; Stan a major disaster in Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:55 PM GMT on October 04, 2005

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Tropical disturbance approaching Florida
The leading portion of the tropical disturbance over the central Bahama Islands has moved ashore in Central Florida today, bringing rains of up to three inches and wind gusts of 40 mph along the coast. Although the disturbance is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, the impact on Florida will be similar to that of a tropical depression--sustained winds of 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph along the coast, along with 3 - 6 inches of rain and large battering waves. The disturbance currently has a weak surface circulation center just south of Andros Island. The shear over the storm is high, 10 - 20 knots, and development into a tropical depression is not possible until Wednesday or Thursday, when the shear may drop below 10 knots. However, the disturbance will be near or over the Florida Peninsula when that happens, limiting the chances for development. I believe that this system will not develop into a tropical depression at all. Instead, the disturbance will interact with an upper-level low pressure system and cold front on Thursday, and become a large--and very wet--ordinary low pressure system. This low will pump copious amounts of tropical moisture into Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next three days. By Thursday, a cold front swings onto the East Coast, and several areas of low pressure--all non-tropical--are expected to develop along the front Thursday through Saturday and move northeast, giving the entire East Coast drenching tropical rains.


Figure 1.Storm total rainfall from the Melbourne radar.

I speculated about the possibility yesterday of a tropical storm forming near the Carolinas and moving northwards along the coast. This is no longer expected, due to the high wind shear over the region.


Figure 1. BAMM and GFDL model forecast tracks of Bahamas tropical disturbance. The intensity forecast numbers from the SHIPS model are far too high; this system will be lucky to develop into a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Stan
Stan stormed ashore on the coast of Mexico this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, and is expected to finally dissipate Wednesday morning over the Mexican mountains. The onshore winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean into the center of Stan have caused a major disaster in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico. Guatemala is reporting four dead and many communities cut off by rising rivers, and 38 have been killed in El Salvador by mud slides triggered by heavy rains. The death toll will undoubtedly rise much higher. Since Stan's remains are going nowhere fast, as much as 20 inches of rain could fall over the next few days over the mountainous regions of these countries.

Stan's remains may re-organize and form of a new tropical storm over the Pacific, which could move northwest and threaten Baja later in the week. The NOGAPS and GFDL models predict that Stan's remains will linger over the Gulf of Mexico long enough to result in the formation of a new tropical storm there by the weekend. All this will depend on Stan's track; it is very unlikely we would get a new storm in both ocean basins.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Clouds from the tropical disturbance over the Bahamas extend southeastward to Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico bears watching, as wind shear values here are 5 - 10 knots, the lowest of anywhere in this disturbance.

The region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is quiet.

Jeff Masters

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492. groundedtruccr
1:38 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Why isn't NHC looking at the circulation and high cold tops of the one off the Yucatan. They are so intrested in the little rain maker off the east, that their going to blow it onthis one . I hope they open their eyes and see this. I live in southwest florida and watching Gulf more than Tammy.
491. hurricanewayne
1:19 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
OK that blob off of the yucatan looks like a TS already. my prediction on this........some type of watch or warning will be posted for the west coast of FL tonight. I see this making landfall just north of Tampa with winds up to 100mph maybe 115
490. snowboy
1:13 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
new post from Dr. Masters!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
489. leftyy420
1:13 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
it already appears like the center might be reforming and motion looks more nne right now than nnw. cenetr is less define than it was 2 hrs ago. will be interesting to see what she does in the next few hours
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
488. leftyy420
1:10 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
first i suspect the center reforms atleast once and mostlikley to the east under the deepest convection, next the cold front is going to be racing south so she will transfer her energy to the fron which will spawn a strong coastal storm off the nc/va coast. now will she get on land first, possibly but the sooner the weaker she will be. most liley the heavy rain is the biggest impact and beach errosion. the question is how strong the coastal low is and if it bombs out into an extartropical system that could hammer new england.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
487. leftyy420
1:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
shes not going into the gulf. and no model yet. i suspect we have a betetr idea in 4-5 hours when the 8am models come out
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
486. Hopnskip2gulf
1:01 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Leftty,

Which model do you think has a handle on Tammy? Do you think she will ride the east coast or pop over into the NE Gulf like some models are suggesting?
485. leftyy420
1:00 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
now ships shows that if she stays over water she could get close to cat 1 strength in 48-72 hrs. most likley she will be over water for 24 hrs or less but she could be as stronmg as 60mph by than
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
484. irecthh
12:58 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Thanks,Lefty!Looks like we might end up rescheduling...Nothing worse than setting up a tent then sitting in it with a bunch of kids, counting the leaks and watching the rain!!
483. leftyy420
12:56 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
here u guys go. bamm and ships 8am run for tammy

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
482. leftyy420
12:54 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
here is the link to the nws forcast for orlando. check it out

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
481. leftyy420
12:54 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
well its not just tammy, the whole east coast will be wett this week. there will be a south or se flow out of the tropicas and 2 more possible systems that will affect florida and the east coast as well as a strong cold front.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
480. JimJax
12:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Beautiful morning in Jacksonville...For ducks or kite fliers
479. irecthh
12:52 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
lefty...what do you think the chances of rain are for the Orlando area this weekend?? We have a camping trip planned...but will reschedule if it is going to rain..do you think Tammy be far enough out of the area?
478. leftyy420
12:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yeah but tis off as well. we should have another bamm and ship model out at 900am - 930am so that will give us a good idea of track as bamm is good with weak systems and the intensity potential
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
477. leftyy420
12:50 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
manny tammy is blowing up. since the shear is slakcing off she could get strong if she continues to track over water
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
476. rxse7en
12:49 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
By the way, I can't predict earthquakes either...

I should head out the Beaches later and take some shots for you guys. The almost total lack of info on Tammy is annoying--especially now that she's here. Here's what the locals are saying: http://www.news4jax.com/weather/5049982/detail.html No predictions of strengthening.

Leftyy, is there a SHIPS/intensity model for Tammy?

B
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
475. leftyy420
12:48 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yeah it was and still is a very complex situation and the models are all off right now. now since she formed the next runs out at 1:30 pm should have a good handle on track and intensity. we will see what they say but of all the models the cmc did seem to have decent handle onit in some runs. its the flip flopping that shows its inconsitency. but its forms it while the gfs does not, showing the gfs is just as lost
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
474. rxse7en
12:45 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Duh, Leftyy is right! I was thinking of the recurve back over us. I'm going back to predicting earthquakes. :D
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
473. leftyy420
12:45 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
if u look u will see starting 03/00 it goes into the gulf. than at 03/12 it goes to north florida, than at 04/00 it goes into the gulf . at 04/12 it goes into the gulf. and than finally last nights run 05/00 it goes to north florida. thats flip flopping. now the gfs has it going north for days but never forms it until its near nc. thats why no modell had any good handle on it. ukmet, nogapps, cmc all form it but don't have the track and the gfs has the track but does not form it
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
472. leftyy420
12:41 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
rx go check the cmc again. and than tellme what it says startting 2 days ago
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
471. rxse7en
12:40 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Leftyy, CMC has had "Tammy" over us for two days (Northern Florida) and not getting near the Gulf. Granted, it didn't have it staying off shore and moving North :D

B
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
470. leftyy420
12:37 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
wayne, not even sure that willn form as it will ahve top contend with a ull that is in the deeping process not weaking like the ull that spawned tammy. so maybe suntropical at best.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
469. hurricanewayne
12:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yeah Tammy will be a little wimp.. What wont be a wimp is that huge blob on convection just off of the yucatan. I think that will be Vince and will head towards the Tampa area.
468. leftyy420
12:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
rx, no it hasn't. its latest run looks betetr but its previous runs did what they all did have it cross florida or form in florida. the gfs is the only model that had itmove up the coast but it never formed her until she was near north carolina
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
467. TampaBay58
12:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
There is a well defined circulation just to the west of the convection over the Yucatan on the visible loop.
Another storm would't suprise me. A lot of the models have been showing some developement there tracking NE.
We'll see.
466. leftyy420
12:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
this is the link to the 2am gfs

gfs Link

and this is a link to all recent model runs of the nogapps ukemt canadian gfs and gfdl

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
465. rxse7en
12:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
CMC model has been pretty close with predicting Tammy, I've been watching for the last few days--a first for the CMC since I've been following. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005100500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

B (Jacksonville)
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
464. leftyy420
12:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
8am model runs don;t come out till 1:30 pm. 2am model runs should already be out
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
463. leftyy420
12:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
duunop but models keepfoprming a system near the yucatan in the next 2-3 days so i am starting to think that convection spawned by stan and convergence with a deepinging ull will do what we saw ts tammy. persist long enough to form a surface trof and than a surface low and than a closed circulation. this system appears to track east thru the gulf and towards south florida.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
462. thelmores
12:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
do we have any 8am model results for tammy?
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
461. thelmores
12:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
looks like Dr. Masters missed this one (tammy), as well as most of the models. we have a full fledged TS with a warm core.

i still am not convinced there will be a landfall in fla., could be georgia.... althogh the forward speed will make it harder to turn...... but if the storm slows down before landfall, then a turn may happen!

Tammy, bring us some rain! :)

we do have showers in myrtle beach this morning! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
460. oriondarkwood
12:21 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Howdy Tammy,

I guess people scambling to see Tammy crashed the site eariler this morning
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
459. rxse7en
12:10 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Godd Morning, Tammy!
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&scale=1&delay=100&noclutter=0&showstorms=10&showlabels=1&ID=JAX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
458. sebastianjer
12:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Excuse, SW of storm
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
457. sebastianjer
12:05 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Wow, turn on computer and there is TS right off our coast.Live in Sebastian just SE of storm, pretty calm out actually, had a lot of squalls yesterday, but just cloudy and brezzy this morning. I guess we dodged one here
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
456. GainesvilleGator
12:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
It looks like a rainy day in Gainesville, FL today. I think Tammy took everybody by surprise this morning. It didn't take long for that wave to go into a TD & then a TS. So much for the going into the Gulf of Mexico & meandering scenario. You can clearly see that upper level low pressure in the NE Gulf that Dr. Masters predicted.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
455. putintang3
11:59 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
excuse me for asking, but what is the deep convection that is located near 87n and 20w? It that part of Stan that split in half? Put
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 309
454. plagueDog
11:57 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
453. leftyy420
11:53 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
dunno. pronly ga/fl border but like i was saying last night, complex situation just leeps getting more complex
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
452. rescueguy
11:48 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Lefty, I just got a page from work about the new storm. What's up with the n-nw movement? How far up the coast do you think she will make it before landfall??
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
451. leftyy420
11:46 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
ts tammy. 19 nmaed stormswhat a year
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
450. SMU88
11:44 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Well...it looks like South Florida (i.e. Miami) escaped another one!!! I guess the question now is whether or not we will get some rain out of it??
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
449. snowsquall
11:38 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
At 730 am EDT...1130z...the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 28.4 north... longitude 80.3 west or about 20 miles... east of Cape Canaveral Florida and about 155 miles south-southeast of Jacksonville Florida.
448. southbeachdude
11:33 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
since this new td or ts tammy is moving more north, does that mean in south florida the weather in the upcoming days might not be as rainy as earlier predicted? thanks...
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 696
447. FSUstormnut
11:31 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
our local news just said Tammy formed!!!!
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
446. wpbwx
11:19 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
NHC says blob has closed circulation and updates to follow
445. hurricanechaser
10:47 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
good morning trooper... Id say a tropical storm if it stays off the coast which it appears is happening now moving parrallel to the Fl. coast. If it can get away from the shear and stay over warm water for a couple more days and head for the carolinas... a strong tropical storm/ weak hurricane is possible but long way to go for that to happen...right now...close to land and wobbles west brings center closer to coast, strong shear as evidenced in wator vapor, and all the deep convection well away from the center espoecially viod on western periphery...alot of variables come into play over the new few days..but its a possibilty if it all works in soon to be Tammy's favor.
444. Trouper415
10:41 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
Are we looking at a hurricane here?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
443. hurricanechaser
10:31 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
it appears to be located very close to melbournes latitude now moving more nnw than nw which would delay a Fl. landfall and possibly turn more northerly in time if it continues to move slowly and no jogs back to the west.

442. hurricanechaser
10:20 AM GMT on October 05, 2005
storm junkie..we were right when we noticed the center on melbournes radar earlier moving off in a nw direction very close to the coast.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.