Western Caribbean disturbance 98L a threat to develop; Otto weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:48 PM GMT on October 09, 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

An area of disturbed weather (98L) is in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua. The disturbance has a modest and slowly increasing amount of intense thunderstorms, and is showing some spin. The disturbance is drifting northwest at less than 5 mph, and is under a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Dry air in the Western Caribbean has been interfering with development, but 98L is now generating enough thunderstorms that the environment in the Western Caribbean is moistening, which will support further development. Pressures at Colombia's San Andres Island near the center of 98L are not falling, and satellite imagery show disturbed weather only over a very modest portion of the Caribbean, so any development today will be slow to occur.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday, and possibly the Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status early next week, though NHC is only calling for a 20% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive developing 98L. These models predict 98L will intensify into Tropical Storm Paula by Monday, move northwest and then north, and pass through the Cayman Islands on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. Paula would then hit western or central Cuba as a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday, brush the Florida Keys, then accelerate northeastward through the western Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. This is probably too aggressive of a forecast, given 98L's current small size and lack of organization. The UKMET model also develops 98L, but keeps the storm in the Western Caribbean over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model keeps 98L weak and predicts a more west-northwesterly motion into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF models do not develop 98L. One argument against the development of 98L would be that the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently promoting sinking, stable air over the Western Caribbean, which tends to make the atmosphere dryer and more stable. However, I think that 98L will spend enough time in the Western Caribbean to overcome the relatively stable, dry air, and become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. The likelihood of the storm hitting Cuba versus moving more to the west-northwest and hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is difficult to call at this point.

Otto weakening, pulling away from the the islands
The deluge has finally ended for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto. This is welcome news in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where Otto and its precursor storminess dumped 15.25" of rain over the past eight days. On average, St.Thomas expects to receive just 1.44" of rain during the first eight days of October. Satellite imagery shows that Otto is beginning to suffer the ill-effects of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The cloud pattern has become distorted and non-symmetric, with the clouds on the southwest side of the storm being eaten away by the strong upper-level winds from the southwest creating the shear. Otto will continue to deteriorate due to increasing wind shear until the storm transitions into an extratropical storm on Monday.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Otto taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on their Terra satellite at 11:05 am EDT October 8, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 948 - 898

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

This is now an ex-blog.
The new blog is here.Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEW BLOG
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
Quoting Ameister12:
98L doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.


I disagree.. it isn't a shapeless blob.

NHC will keep it at 60% though imo.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting Herbertsbox:
Meant to be on the lighter side. One thing I have learned about storms and this site is when someone uses the phraseology that storm X is not looking good right now, it means little. Especially during D-min.

Something has to eventually blow the top off the Gulf..might be 98L

I am actually hoping that nothing "blows the top off the GOM" because I am fascinated to know what will occur next, if it does not happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
98L will be difficult to forecast. It could hang around for awhile before developement. This is not unusaul for systems in the Western Caribbean in October and November. I wouldnt write her off yet. I think she may be forming a COC farther to the NE and miss CA. IMO
Believe it or not, I actually agree with you. It has looked for several hours like it is forming a coc to the NE. Crown Weather also said he thinks that is what will happen.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
Meant to be on the lighter side. One thing I have learned about storms and this site is when someone uses the phraseology that storm X is not looking good right now, it means little. Especially during D-min.

Something has to eventually blow the top off the Gulf..might be 98L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Satellite Observations show that Invest 98L is nearing Tropical Depression status. Banding features can be seen coming in from the Northwest, and Southeast, right into the system. Convection is sustaining itself, and has been for over 12 hours now. Satellite Imagery also shows that is pretty obvious there is a well-defined circulation, and previous passes of ASCAT show that 98L has the winds of Tropical Depression intensity, or close to it. I give the system a 80% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression or higher within the next 48 hours (Monday [Noon]).


Nice post. Good points.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Satellite Observations show that Invest 98L is nearing Tropical Depression status. Banding features can be seen coming in from the Northwest, and Southeast, right into the system. Convection is sustaining itself, and has been for over 12 hours now. Satellite Imagery also shows that is pretty obvious there is a well-defined circulation, and previous passes of ASCAT show that 98L has the winds of Tropical Depression intensity, or close to it. I give the system a 80% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression or higher within the next 48 hours (Monday [Noon]).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
98L will be difficult to forecast. It could hang around for awhile before developement. This is not unusaul for systems in the Western Caribbean in October and November. I wouldnt write her off yet. I think she may be forming a COC farther to the NE and miss CA. IMO
Direction wise, it will be all about intensity with this one, which is notoriously difficult in this location, at this time of the year .... if not impossible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Are you really saying that 98L cannot become a Tropical Depression today?

REALLY? :\

Well, actually, it could!
But that would depend on the Venturi Effect within the Oslo Fiord, along with an upsurge of Magnetic Influences in the Bermuda Triangle, which needs to pulse in harmony with the expected Tidal Bore in the mouth of the Amazon.
So the chances are remote today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
98L looking good this afternoon. 2PM will likely keep it at 60%, or raise it to 70%

Like someone said here recently, if you have 2 people commenting here on 1 system, you are likely to get 3 or 4 options as to what will happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

You are correct, that tomorrow looks more likely than today, but really only because today is not possible.
Tomorrow is not really very likely either though....


Are you really saying that 98L cannot become a Tropical Depression today?

REALLY? :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's a poll.

What will 98l's percentage be at 2?

A) 50% or less.
B) 60%
C) 70%
D) More than 70%.

I think 98l will remain at 60%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L looking good this afternoon. 2PM will likely keep it at 60%, or raise it to 70%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:

98L has improved in convection today, but the structure looked better last night. I still say it's possible for a TD to form tonight or tomorrow, but I think tomorrow is a lot more likely.

You are correct, that tomorrow looks more likely than today, but really only because today is not possible.
Tomorrow is not really very likely either though....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
929. beell
The central US cut-off low and trough appears strong enough/south enough to lift 98L out of the Caribbean. Into some well-advertised hostile conditions.


Cent US WV Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The blog died... again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like my 'Lager' reference has sent everyone scurrying off to the nearest ice-box...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Trinidad now--
91F
55% humid.
1013 falling pressure (its getting to siesta time, is the reason for the 'falling' pressure)
Winds east to 18 mph
Heat Index 100f

Suits me, just fine.
Another Lager is called for...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L will be difficult to forecast. It could hang around for awhile before developement. This is not unusaul for systems in the Western Caribbean in October and November. I wouldnt write her off yet. I think she may be forming a COC farther to the NE and miss CA. IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is this circular blob of warm water off the West coast of Mexico? Where did THAT come from?


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=ep

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO

98L has improved in convection today, but the structure looked better last night. I still say it's possible for a TD to form tonight or tomorrow, but I think tomorrow is a lot more likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO

Invest 98L has consolidated everything into the central core of Low pressure. A TD by 11AM EDT on Monday, before heading into Central America.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Sunday afternoon.
Did anything happen at 10:10, this 10/10/10?
Apparently not.
Oh Well, 11:11, 11/11/11 is coming...

It feels like the dryseason is here.
A 'proper' breeze all morning, blue sky, puffy little cloud scudding by, and temps in the low 90's.

98L is hanging on by the hair of it's armpits, if you ask me.
More rain for Cuba and Jamaica, and maybe beyond.
But nutt'n else, atall atall.

SST Temps are going to plummet in the GOM this week coming, and in spite of any other conditions, there can hardly be a storm there.

South west Caribbean sea could possibly spawn something, but it would have nowhere to go for development.

Heavy rains are still a strong possibility in the Islands and Central America, and I suppose up the Eastern seaboard as well, if something can get going in the Trop. Atl., during the next 4 weeks or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
98L doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Paula will set the stage for Richard, and then Shary will step up to the plate. The New York Mets will then decide on whether to move the franchise to England, based on the UK/MET. I then predict that The Gap will sue the NHC for rights to the NOGAP.

This season is finally getting off the ground.




????/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BBL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Its pretty likely we'll squeeze another name out in the sw/nw caribbean sea but that strong westerly flow across sfl isn't going anywere anytime soon.
Hey, Adrian. I think we're going to end up with more than one before the season's all said and done. IMO, we're in a lull right now, and prolly won't see additional formation over the next decade (not counting whatever may come of 98L). But I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the CAR in the latter part of this month or even into November. And given the relatively weird impact points all season, who knows where it will end up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
912. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

...and who would of thought? Not me anyway. At the time of Bonnie, I'm thinking this could be just laying the foundation for bigger things the next couple months. Guess I was dead wrong thinking that!


I thought the same thing too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
910. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL...Ike, how long have you had that one tucked away and waiting for the right moment?


About 2-3 weeks.

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Come to think of it IKE, you were on the ball with this weeks ago when you were making a case that the GOM season was beginning to really wind down...


The closest threats all season....



and...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No rain in Kingston right now
Quoting surfmom:

Indeed not GOOD!! Any information how this is affecting their farm exports - mostly coffee??? Yes I love my Jamaican Coffee. Economically this is the last thing Jamaica needs ***sigh***


We sure don't need anymore rain right now. Continues to be overcast in Kingston although the sun did peek out for a bit but no rain at this time. Looking at the Met Service radar it appears the western end of Jamaica got some showers earlier this morning

The rains has affected agriculture but not as bad as previous times, although the true effects will not be known right away. Pictures of Nicole's Damage on Jamaica Gleaner
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurristat:


Thank you muchly -- I figured I could get a better explanation from the intelligent people here, but Wikipedia also has intelligent people too, so that works.
Some of the intelligent pple on here ARE the intelligent pple on Google, especially as it comes 2 tropical wx.... lol

But yeah, the wx resources on Google are not at all bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morn- ah.... afternoon to all and sundry....

We are having some wonderful weather here this weekend after some midweek nastiness connected with that FROPA.... lots of sunny mostly clear skies with only the white puffies to add a bit of contrast... I think I will try to get some yard duties in while the sun's about, especially given the forecasts for the upcoming week.

Also, this is a holiday weekend, observing the 507th anniversary of Columbus' arrival in the New World, so we have tomorrow off. I sure hope the weather stays fine....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Now she's singing... about the tropical threat the rest of this season along the northern GOM....



LOL...Ike, how long have you had that one tucked away and waiting for the right moment?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Now she's singing... about the tropical threat the rest of this season along the northern GOM....



Oh, God!!! Make her stop, please! I'll do ANYTHING!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
It looks less organized this morning if you ask me. The globals have really backed off on development.

The sinking air across most of the caribbean sea may have something to do with that.
I agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
900. IKE
Now she's singing... about the tropical threat the rest of this season along the northern GOM....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 948 - 898

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.