Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

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The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.

Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.

A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

Jeff Masters

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I've learned here there are too many Einsteins and no Alberts.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52173
I wouldn't give 98L more than 10% until one of three things occur:

1.) Convection builds and sustains (likely to occur into Saturday and Sunday)

2.) The circulation becomes stronger (likely to happen eventually)

3.) Vorticity becomes more compact

Overall, it may be tricky for the system to develop due to moderate shear and Dry Air, but I still believe its possible. I give this system no more than a 40% chance of ever developing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
XX/INV/98L
MARK
13.20N/78.60W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52173
Quoting Jeff9641:


Convection wise I agree with you but vorticity is really good.


BUT elongated
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Look at that circulation and you tell me that circulation is disorganized.
The circulation is pretty decent albeit broad. I think he may be referring to the convective organization as being disorganized, which I agree with. Not sure how much organization/intensification will be able to take place with a large mass of dry, stable air bearing down on the western semicircle. Additionally, 20 knots of southerly shear are affecting the system. We shall see.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting surfmom:
quality over quantity I'd say - Stormpetrol
rather see fewer posts but intelligent
then a load of folks looking for their "significance"
true weather lovers will be here
it's a relief not to have to put on my muck boots to wade through some of the sullied posts we've had around here

the other fact to consider -- times are getting tougher and we're working harder; no one wants to get fired -- I have much less dabble time --cause I'm working that much more

Well said, I couldn't agree more, I hope my comment didn't rub some the wrong way , just an simple observation!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting Jeff9641:


Look at that circulation and you tell me that circulation is disorganized.


The circulation is weak...The convection is very disorganized. Vorticity is elongated.

Overall, the system is disorganized.
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Scratch post 229. I was using the 'no land' option for the SHIPS. Keep in mind that the SHIPS uses the BAMM model for guidance, and the BAMM model has 98L moving inland over Nicaragua. Case and point is, the 'land' option for the SHIPS only intensifies it through 60 hours when the system remains over water. After that, weakening occurs.

V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 27 33 40 32 29 27 27 27
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I said that, because it IS disorganized.

Convection wise, it is disorganized. Has a large area of decent vorticity though.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Really?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html


Yes, really. Stop jumping the gun on things.
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Quoting surfmom:

perhaps a maker of waves as well : )


So long as those waves aren't on top of a 25' storm surge... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
Quoting Jeff9641:
Whoever said 98L is diorganized then they may want to do there research before jumping the gun.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html


I said that, because it IS disorganized.
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98L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
Quoting stormpetrol:

I knew it was coming and we have to watch this one, it lacks heavy convection but it is organizing slowly but surely, could be a player in few days!

perhaps a maker of waves as well : )
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Oh well. Can't go up against the NHC.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
quality over quantity I'd say - Stormpetrol
rather see fewer posts but intelligent
then a load of folks looking for their "significance"
true weather lovers will be here
it's a relief not to have to put on my muck boots to wade through some of the sullied posts we've had around here

the other fact to consider -- times are getting tougher and we're working harder; no one wants to get fired -- I have much less dabble time --cause I'm working that much more
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LGEM not intensifying 98L, or for that matter developing it.

AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 12, 134N, 788W, 21, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 24, 137N, 795W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 36, 140N, 804W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 48, 143N, 816W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 60, 146N, 829W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 72, 150N, 845W, 26, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 84, 152N, 862W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 96, 155N, 881W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 108, 156N, 900W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 120, 155N, 920W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

SHIPS on the other hand does intensify 98L into a moderate tropical storm.

AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 12, 134N, 788W, 21, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 24, 137N, 795W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 36, 140N, 804W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 48, 143N, 816W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 60, 146N, 829W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 72, 150N, 845W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 84, 152N, 862W, 46, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 96, 155N, 881W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 108, 156N, 900W, 45, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 120, 155N, 920W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Its possible that the LGEM shows it as a TD
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Anyone have the NHC's expected track yet?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
In the Next TWO will pre-98L be at...
(A) Near 0%
(B) 10%
(C) 20%
(D) 30%
(E) More than 30%

I'm pretty sure it'll be B or C, can't rule out D though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LGEM not intensifying 98L, or for that matter developing it.

AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 12, 134N, 788W, 21, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 24, 137N, 795W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 36, 140N, 804W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 48, 143N, 816W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 60, 146N, 829W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 72, 150N, 845W, 26, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 84, 152N, 862W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 96, 155N, 881W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 108, 156N, 900W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, LGEM, 120, 155N, 920W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

SHIPS on the other hand does intensify 98L into a moderate tropical storm.

AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 12, 134N, 788W, 21, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 24, 137N, 795W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 36, 140N, 804W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 48, 143N, 816W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 60, 146N, 829W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 72, 150N, 845W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 84, 152N, 862W, 46, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 96, 155N, 881W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 108, 156N, 900W, 45, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, 03, SHIP, 120, 155N, 920W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
WOW! The excitement has commenced!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Invest 98L must be a serious threat to the NHC. They would never tag something an invest when its this poorly organized unless they expected it to impact the USA or they TRULY believe it will become a named storm.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sooner than you think. Navy has 98L on their site.

I knew it was coming and we have to watch this one, it lacks heavy convection but it is organizing slowly but surely, could be a player in few days!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
AL, 98, 2010100818, , BEST, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 1008, LO
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

I wouldn't be surprised either to see an invest over in that area by tomorrow sometime.
Sooner than you think. Navy has 98L on their site.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
it's already Invest 98L.


Why yes, it is. That was just made public on the ATCF page in the last 20 minutes:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010082227
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010100818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 227N, 799W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100700, , BEST, 0, 211N, 801W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100706, , BEST, 0, 197N, 802W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100712, , BEST, 0, 182N, 802W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100718, , BEST, 0, 167N, 801W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 797W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100806, , BEST, 0, 144N, 793W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100812, , BEST, 0, 137N, 789W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, , BEST, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2231 UTC FRI OCT 8 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101008 1800 101009 0600 101009 1800 101010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 78.6W 13.1N 78.8W 13.3N 79.6W 13.2N 80.6W
BAMD 13.2N 78.6W 13.7N 78.9W 14.3N 79.4W 14.8N 80.0W
BAMM 13.2N 78.6W 13.4N 78.8W 13.7N 79.5W 14.0N 80.4W
LBAR 13.2N 78.6W 13.2N 78.8W 14.0N 79.7W 15.3N 80.6W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101010 1800 101011 1800 101012 1800 101013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 82.0W 12.7N 84.9W 12.2N 88.8W 11.3N 93.9W
BAMD 15.5N 80.6W 16.6N 82.3W 18.2N 85.2W 20.6N 87.2W
BAMM 14.3N 81.6W 15.0N 84.5W 15.5N 88.1W 15.5N 92.0W
LBAR 17.3N 81.2W 22.7N 80.5W 27.8N 73.9W 31.0N 59.0W
SHIP 33KTS 44KTS 48KTS 41KTS
DSHP 33KTS 32KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 154DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 80.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like we're getting an eye!

Maybe. An eyewall has developed though it currently remains relatively ragged and open to the southern semicircle.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
it's already Invest 98L.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
In the Next TWO will pre-98L be at...
(A) Near 0%
(B) 10%
(C) 20%
(D) 30%
(E) More than 30%
At its current state of organization, I'll go with A.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
In the Next TWO will pre-98L be at...
(A) Near 0%
(B) 10%
(C) 20%
(D) 30%
(E) More than 30%


I'm 99% sure it will be B.
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Looks like we're getting an eye!

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WOW!! This blog has been slow the last few days! Anyone knows why? Well This is my best guess, as Anderson Cooper of CNN said when his brother committed suicide by jumping out of a penthouse apartment and he saw all the reporters around, though he despised them at the time , he said he realised bad news made a good news story for the news business. Looks like threats from tropical systmes to CONUS is practically over for a few weeks if not for the the rest of the Season, so take a guess what, nothing to get excited about, not that I personally believe anyone wants to see death and destruction, but the potential of such a system approaching sets in motion excitement , fear and actually a high for some craving the experience of major hurricane, just the facts of human nature combined with mother nature!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
My neck of the woods...

Temps: 81.7°F
Conditions: Sunny
Humidity: 24%
Dew Point: 41°F
Winds: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.97 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 79°F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 7.20 out of 12
Elevation: 20 ft
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
C

I Agree
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.