Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

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The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.

Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.

A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

Jeff Masters

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458. txjac
But that should be it; even with a good day tomorrow, I doubt he'll be around long enough

Neopolitanm what do you mean when you say "doublt that he will be around long enough"? Do you think it will disapate or just move to the north east? Thanks

Jo
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good night kmanislander
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Quoting kmanislander:


Shear is currently not conducive and has been that way for over 24 hours. Keep your fingers crossed.



Dont make me nervous lol. Im still trying to learn :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Otto's ACE is now up to 2.585, meaning that he's already been a more energetic storm than six of this year's previous storms: Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, and--of course--Nicole. Unless he completely falls apart tonight, his ACE will surpass Fiona's tomorrow morning, and there's a very good chance he can overtake Lisa tomorrow evening. But that should be it; even with a good day tomorrow, I doubt he'll be around long enough to surpass Karl, the next storm up.
otto will not see the sun rise not as a cane anyway
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I'm out for tonight. Just a quick stop in.

Back in the morning. Gnite all
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Quoting Surfcropper:
Season's over..pack it up folks

Go camping with all those "supplies"
Maybe over for you but I don't think it is quite over for us yet.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting doorman79:


The energy underneath is there. Just hope the upper levels dont agree as our next front should swing through tuesday or wednesday.


Shear is currently not conducive and has been that way for over 24 hours. Keep your fingers crossed.

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Quoting Surfcropper:
Season's over..pack it up folks

Go camping with all those "supplies"
i think ya may want to hold up on that idea for just a little bit longer another window is to open and a poss system is yet to come
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Otto's ACE is now up to 2.585, meaning that he's already been a more energetic storm than six of this year's previous storms: Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, and--of course--Nicole. Unless he completely falls apart tonight, his ACE will surpass Fiona's tomorrow morning, and there's a very good chance he can overtake Lisa tomorrow evening. But that should be it; even with a good day tomorrow, I doubt he'll be around long enough to surpass Karl, the next storm up.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, it can be potent if it develops. For now, I am just watching it.

It's one of those lows that may or may not become something


The energy underneath is there. Just hope the upper levels dont agree as our next front should swing through tuesday or wednesday.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree.
and so does the NHC
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will prohibit any further dev. period
we have seen the peak
I agree.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting doorman79:


I dont like that the high on us is supposed to be pushed east. but there is alot of dry air on the way!


The dry air will not dig far enough South to affect development with 98L. It might impact a system that lifted to the North of the Caribbean but that is some ways down the road.

October and November can be very dangerous in this part of the basin.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Plenty of dry air intruding into Otto's eastern semicircle. This is probably what is halting the development of a closed eyewall.


it will prohibit any further dev. period
we have seen the peak
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...OTTO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 60.8W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

Forecast Discussion:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090232
TCDAT2
HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DECREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C HAVE PERSISTED
NEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER. A 08/2217Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS
INDICATED THE EYE IS TILTED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNSTREAM TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AT LEAST 35 NMI BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T5.0/90
KT FROM TAFB AND T4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND AROUND 67 KT FROM THE
UW-CIMSS ADT PROGRAM. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
INCREASED TO 75 KT...AND OTTO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN STRENGTH GIVEN
THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN AT ALL LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/18. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OTTO IS
NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MASSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS
FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OTTO TO THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT ON WHETHER OTTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST OR SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES
ISLANDS. THERE IS MUCH LESS SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
RUN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH A NOTED DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF THAT
MODEL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OUTRUNNING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOTED IN
MICROWAVE DATA BY MORE THAN 60 NMI...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE OTTO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS
AND EXPERIENCING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. TIMING
POSSIBLE DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IS
TRICKY. HOWEVER...SINCE OTTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C SSTS...BE
UNDERNEATH VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS EXCEEDING 40 KT...AND POSSIBLY
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A BLEND OF THE NHC
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DUE IN PART TO THE TILTED VORTEX STRUCTURE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 27.8N 60.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.7N 57.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 32.6N 51.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 36.1N 44.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 40.0N 36.4W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 28.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 23.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 14/0000Z 40.0N 20.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I agree but then it can end up being very potent. What do you think about 98L ?


Yes, it can be potent if it develops. For now, I am just watching it.

It's one of those lows that may or may not become something
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Quoting RufusBaker:
The word hurricane comes from the Taino Native American word, hurucane, meaning evil spirit of the wind.

thats about right
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Link
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

Watching 98L I suppoese eh ??

This time of year development in the SW Caribbean is like mollasses in winter


I dont like that the high on us is supposed to be pushed east. but there is alot of dry air on the way!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

Watching 98L I suppoese eh ??

This time of year development in the SW Caribbean is like mollasses in winter
I agree but then it can end up being very potent. What do you think about 98L ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting doorman79:


Hey Kman!


Hi there

Watching 98L I suppoese eh ??

This time of year development in the SW Caribbean is like mollasses in winter
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

So, what's cooking ??


Hey Kman!
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Link

The weather is beautiful here!
Link
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Good evening

So, what's cooking ??
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Plenty of dry air intruding into Otto's eastern semicircle. This is probably what is halting the development of a closed eyewall.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stormpetrol:

Despite the economic down turn, the increase in crime, I'm gonna make a tall statement and stormwatcher can chime in, The Cayman Islands are still one the better places to be living in right now!!!
I agree. Our cost of living is high but then again salaries are pretty high when compared to the US too. As to the crime, it is nowhere near as bad as other places and the shootings are all directed towards rival "gangs" and not Joe Public. IMO if you lie down with dogs you're gonna catch fleas.
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430. JRRP
see you tomorrow
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Quoting txjac:
Stormwatcher and petrol ...sounds like a great place to own a bike ...24 miles is nothing ..jealous od you all

Despite the economic down turn, the increase in crime, I'm gonna make a tall statement and stormwatcher can chime in, The Cayman Islands are still one the better places to be living in right now!!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A F-16 91H SSMIS microwave overpass from earlier this evening (6:17p.m EDT) revealed that Otto had developed an eyewall, however, it was open to the eastern semicircle.



Satellite imagery currently reveals no eye however. And for whoever is interested (Taz in specific, lol) the eye will probably be normally sized (15 nautical miles or so) and not pinhole.


Wonder where he has been today.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
A F-16 91H SSMIS microwave overpass from earlier this evening (6:17p.m EDT) revealed that Otto had developed an eyewall, however, it was open to the eastern semicircle.



Satellite imagery currently reveals no eye however. And for whoever is interested (Taz in specific, lol) the eye will probably be normally sized (15 nautical miles or so) and not pinhole.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey I might be in the running. I spend most of my time lost and then when I get there its often not where I meant to be.


It paid off for Columbus!!!!!
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Quoting txjac:
Stormwatcher and petrol ...sounds like a great place to own a bike ...24 miles is nothing ..jealous od you all
A lot of people do ride bikes here but we have some crazy drivers down here.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting doorman79:


Beings Monday is Columbus day, I vote shen most Columbus lol. Its the hat with the feather man lol
Hey I might be in the running. I spend most of my time lost and then when I get there its often not where I meant to be.
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423. txjac
Stormwatcher and petrol ...sounds like a great place to own a bike ...24 miles is nothing ..jealous od you all
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Quoting txjac:
Stupid question stormwatcher ...but where are you from/located> Near stormpetrol

Kmanislander and I live a little under a mile apart, funny , Grand Cayman is a small Island but it is place if you don't have your own car/ transportation, It might as well be triple the size!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Oh boy LMAO what we have here is a failure to remunerate - I mean communicate, I was referring to pilotguy hehehe


Beings Monday is Columbus day, I vote shen most Columbus lol. Its the hat with the feather man lol
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Best Track for Hurricane Julia now shows Julia peaked at 140.

AL, 12, 2010091512, , BEST, 0, 177N, 322W, 120, 950, HU
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks to our governor and Premier not wanting the prospective tourists to know how bad we were hit. Some places still look like @#&! including parts of South Sound but especially Bodden Town.

South Sound has got rid of all the destroyed homes to my knowledge, but honest we accomplished in 6 years what I thought it would take 15-20 years to do,JMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting txjac:
Stupid question stormwatcher ...but where are you from/located> Near stormpetrol?
Well, Grand Cayman is a little Island about 24 miles long. He lives about 20 or so miles west of where I live.
I live in East End and he lives in South Sound. BTW, I googled the map. wunderkidcayman lives in West Bay.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
417. txjac
Thanks Orac ...always look forward to the updates
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Quoting Relix:
All Atlantic waves have gone poof.
I see the one to the east of the Antilles that looked so good the past few days has really gone poof tonight.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Complete Update

Google Says 98L is there... but won't show the plots yet.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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414. txjac
Stupid question stormwatcher ...but where are you from/located> Near stormpetrol?
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Quoting txjac:
He sounds young. He'll get over it. ;)

He is a she and on meds too ...
Oh boy LMAO what we have here is a failure to remunerate - I mean communicate, I was referring to pilotguy hehehe
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412. Relix
All Atlantic waves have gone poof.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
one out of alot of things I remembered about Ivan was coming back home from the shealter and finding the grass greener than when we left and to consider at the time we are one the sea from the back wall to the sea is about 25-30 ft or maybe less I was kinda expecting the grass to be brown and full af junk but nope it did not have any
You had grass ? East End didn't even have bush left. EVERYTHING was brown. It was terrible. Couldn't find any shade up here to save your life.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormpetrol:

I understand they gave out awards for places that bounced back so fast after hurricanes, I always wonder why Grand Cayman wasn't awarded one because we bounced back fast. I guess it was because of the way the Government of the time treated those that wanted to help and the international press at the time, once again just my personal opinion, I could be totally wrong!
Thanks to our governor and Premier not wanting the prospective tourists to know how bad we were hit. Some places still look like @#&! including parts of South Sound but especially Bodden Town.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
one out of alot of things I remembered about Ivan was coming back home from the shealter and finding the grass greener than when we left and to consider at the time we are one the sea from the back wall to the sea is about 25-30 ft or maybe less I was kinda expecting the grass to be brown and full af junk but nope it did not have any
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok. I guess you are right. IDK :)


Lets move on lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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